Economic Monitoring

Timely analysis on global economic, financial and poverty-related developments—and their impact on World Bank member countries—is provided by the World Bank's Development Prospects Group. It leads the organization's monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting work in global macroeconomics and the Sustainable Development Goals. The Prospects Group produces the semi-annual Global Economic Prospects flagship report. It also produces the Commodity Markets Outlook each quarter, policy-relevant research on topical issues, and timely email updates on the global economy.
This semi-annual report examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging markets and developing countries. The June issue includes special features on debt and trade.
This newsletter provides timely analysis and data on the global economy. The May issue includes a special focus on the synchronicity of U.S. and global business cycles.
This newsletter provides timely analysis on global economic developments, as well as data on economic growth, inflation, financial markets, and other topics. Click on the image to download the June 16 issue.
This quarterly report provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The latest issue was published on April 26.

Policy Research Working Papers

Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses (March 2017)
Investment growth in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has slowed sharply since 2010. Investment growth performance has varied significantly across different regions, however. This paper examines the temporal evolution of investment growth in six EMDE regions, documents remaining investment needs, especially for infrastructure, and presents a set of region-specific policy responses to address these needs. 

Weakness in Investment Growth Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (March 2017)
Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. 

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers (February 2017)
This paper analyzes the role of the United States in the global economy and examines the extent of global spillovers from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies. 

From Commodity Discovery to Production (September 2016)
Major resource discoveries have transformed growth prospects for many low-income countries. However, the sharp downturn in commodity prices in recent years is affecting resource investment in these countries, and may delay the development of recent discoveries into production. This study investigates lead times from discovery to production for a unique data set of gold and copper discoveries worldwide during 1950–2014. 

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications (August 2016)
Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. 

Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts (July 2016)
This paper presents a procedure to construct an asymmetric fan chart of risks around global growth forecasts. The distribution of risks around global growth forecasts is estimated by weighting information extracted from option pricing and survey-based measures of risk factors of global growth. 

Learn about MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations), a tool for economy-wide, country-level analysis of medium- and long-run development policies.
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