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Prospects Group Working Papers - By Author


These papers are produced by the Prospects Group, a unit of the World Bank's Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions vice presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and contribute to development-policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org.

Prospect Group Policy Research Working Papers -- by Author
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Papers by current staff of the Development Prospects Group:

Arteta, Carlos
Baffes, John
Go, Delfin
Guenette, Justin-Damien
Ha, Jongrim
Kilic Celik, Sinem
Kirby, Patrick
Kose, M. Ayhan
Nagle, Peter
Ohnsorge, Franziska
Sugawara, Naotaka
Ruch, Franz Ulrich
Vashakmadze, Ekaterine
Wheeler, Collette
Yamazaki, Takefumi 

Carlos Arteta 

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications (2016)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin) 

John Baffes ^

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with Collette Mari Wheeler, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand (2020)
(with Alain Kabundi and Peter Nagle)

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand (2018)
(with Alain Kabundi, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications (2018)
(with Marc Stocker, Y. Modeste Some, Dana Vorisek, and Collette M. Wheeler)

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements? (2016)
(with Tassos Haniotis)

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis (2015)
(with Xiaoli L. Etienne)

Sources of Volatility during Four Oil Price Crashes (2015)
(with Varun Kshirsagar)

What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market (2015)
(with Varun Kshirsagar)

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices (2013)

Cotton, Biotechnology, and Economic Development (2011)

Cotton Subsidies, the WTO, and the "Cotton Problem" (2011)

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective (2010)
(with Tassos Haniotis)

Markets for Cotton By-Products: Global Trends and Implications for African Cotton Producers (2010)

More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link (2009)

Oil Spills on Other Commodities (2007)

Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters (2006)

The Co-movement between Cotton and Polyester Prices (2005)
(with Gaston Gohou, University of Maryland)

Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling (2005)
(with Harry de Gorter, Cornell University)

Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues (2004)

Delfin S. Go ^

Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response to Trade Disputes (2018)
(with Shantayanan Devarajan, Csilla Lakatos, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)

Global Inequality in a More Educated World  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte) 

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson) 

How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Justin-Damien Guenette ^

Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2021)
(with Takefumi Yamazaki)

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes (2020)

Jongrim Ha ^

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Inflation in Low-Income Countries (2019)
(with Anna Ivanova, Peter J. Montiel, and Peter Louis Pedroni)

Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2019)
(with Marc Stocker and Hakan Yilmazkuday)

Global Inflation Synchronization (2019)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge)

Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates (2019)
(with Anna Ivanova, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando)

Sinem Kilic Celik ^

Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity (2020)
(with Alistair Dieppe and Cedric Okou)

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Debt in Low-Income Countries :Evolution, Implications, and Remedies (2019)
(with Sebastian Michael Essl, Patrick Alexander Kirby, and Andre Proite)

Patrick Kirby ^

Debt in Low-Income Countries :Evolution, Implications, and Remedies (2019)
(with Sebastian Michael Essl, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Andre Proite)

M. Ayhan Kose ^

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
(with Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing?  (2021)
(with Ergys Islamaj)

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic  (2021)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge and Naotaka Sugawara)

The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff)

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with Peter S.O. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies (2020)
(with Sinem Kilic Celik and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Global Recessions (2020)
(with Naotaka Sugawara and Marco E. Terrones)

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge and Naotaka Sugawara)

Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession (2020)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, Peter S. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence (2019)
(with Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo G. Panizza, and Dana Lauren Vorisek)

Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2019)
(with Raju Huidrom, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Ohnsorge) 

Global Inflation Synchronization (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey (2017)
(with Stijn Claessens) 

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Inperfections: A Survey (2017)
(with Stijn Claessens)

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)
(with Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? (2017)
(with Raju Huidrom and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (2017)
(with Franziska Ohnsorge, Lei Sandy Ye, and Ergys Islamaj

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers (2017)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker)

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications (2016)
(with Carlos Arteta, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin) 

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, Jamus J. Lim, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom and Franziska Ohnsorge)

How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? International Evidence (2016)
(with Ergys Islamaj)

Peter Nagle ^

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with Collette Mari Wheeler, John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand (2020)
(with John Baffes and Alain Kabundi)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara)

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand (2018)
(with John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Franziska Ohnsorge ^

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, and Naotaka Sugawara)

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Naotaka Sugawara)

The Aftermath of Debt Surges (2021)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff)

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation (2021)
(with Jongrim Ha and M. Ayhan Kose)

Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets (2020)
(with Alain Ntumba Kabundi)

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with Collette Mari Wheeler, John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, and Peter S. Nagle)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies (2020)
(with Sinem Kilic Celik and M. Ayhan Kose)

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and and Naotaka Sugawara)

Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality (2019)
(with Mohammad Amin and Cedric Iltis Finafa Okou)

Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2019)
(with Raju Huidrom, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge) 

Global Inflation Synchronization (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and M. Ayhan Kose)

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha and M. Ayhan Kose)

Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates (2019)
(with Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando)

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand (2018)
(with John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, and Peter Nagle)

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, and Naotaka Sugawara)

Arm's-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness (2017)
(with Csilla Lakatos)

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? (2017)
(with Raju Huidrom and M. Ayhan Kose)

Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses (2017)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Lei Sandy Ye, Ergys Islamaj)

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers (2017)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Csilla Lakatos, and Marc Stocker)

From Commodity Discovery to Production (2016)
(with Tehmina Khan, Trang Nguyen, and Richard Schodde)

Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts (2016)
(with Marc Stocker and Modeste Y. Some)

Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context (2016)
(with Shu Yu) 

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Jamus J. Lim

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom and M. Ayhan Kose)

Franz Ulrich Ruch ^

Demand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls (2022)
(with Temel Taskin)

Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies (2021)

Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade (2020)

Policy Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade (2020)

Naotaka Sugawara ^

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Global Recessions (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and and Marco E. Terrones)

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison (2020)
(with M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Debt and Financial Crises (2020)
(with Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space (2017)

(with M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

Ekaterine Vashakmadze ^

Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses (2017)
(with Gerard Kambou, Derek Chen, Boaz Nandwa, Yoki Okawa, and Dana Vorisek)

Collette M. Wheeler ^

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
(with John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge)

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications (2018)
(with Marc Stocker, John Baffes, Y. Modeste Some, and Dana Vorisek)

Takefumi Yamazaki ^
Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2021)
(with Justin-Damien Guenette)

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Delfin S. Go

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration (2016)
(wtih S. Amer Ahmed and Dirk Willenbockel) 

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson) 

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte) 

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Jamus Jerome Lim

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer) 

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)

Jamus Jerome Lim

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer) 

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)

Last Updated: Mar 28, 2022




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