BRIEF

Prospects Group Analysis


The following analytical pieces were published in the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects flagship. They were produced by the Prospects Group. A selection from other publications is included.

Global Economic Prospects: Selected Topics, 2015-2022

Select Other Publications on the Global Economy

 

 

Growth and Business Cycles

Economics of pandemics  
Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 June 2020, Special Focus
Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic June 2020, Chapter 3
Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil during the pandemic June 2020, Chapter 4
How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? June 2020, Box 1.1
Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes June 2020, Box 1.3
How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? June 2020, Box 1.4
The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains June 2020, SF1
How do deep recessions affect potential output? June 2020, Box 3.1
How do disasters affect productivity? June 2020, Box 3.2
Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge June 2020, Box 4.1
The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review June 2020, Annex 3.1
Informality    
How does informality aggravate the impact of COVID-19? June 2020, Box 1.4
Growing in the shadow: Challenges of informality Jan. 2019, Chapter 3
Linkages between formal and informal sectors Jan. 2019, Box 3.1
Regional dimensions of informality: An overview Jan. 2019, Box 3.2
Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms Jan. 2019, Box 3.3
Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality? Jan. 2019, Box 3.4
East Asia and Pacific Jan. 2019, Box 2.1.1
Europe and Central Asia Jan. 2019, Box 2.2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean Jan. 2019, Box 2.3.1
Middle East and North Africa Jan. 2019, Box 2.4.1
South Asia Jan. 2019, Box 2.5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa Jan. 2019, Box 2.6.1
Inflation  
Emerging inflation pressures: Cause for alarm?    June 2021, chapter 4
Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries  Jan. 2020, SF 2 
Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence June 2019, SF 1.2
The great disinflation Jan. 2019, Box 1.1
Growth prospects    
Global growth scenarios January 2021, Box 1.4
The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review June 2020, Annex 3.1
How deep will the COVID-19 recession be? June 2020, Box 1.1
Lasting scars of the COVID-19 pandemic June 2020, Chapter 3
Regional macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 June 2020, SF
Growth in low-income countries: Evolution, prospects, and policies June 2019, SF 2.1
Long-term growth prospects: Downgraded no more? June 2018, Box 1.1
Global output gap    
Is the global economy turning the corner? Jan. 2018, Box 1.1
Potential growth    
Global economy: Heading into a decade of disappointments? January 2021, Chapter 3
How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? June 2020, Box 3.1
Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth Jan. 2018, Chapter 3
What is potential growth? Jan. 2018, Box 3.1
Understanding the recent productivity slowdown: Facts and explanations Jan. 2018, Box 3.2
Moving together? Investment and potential output Jan. 2018, Box 3.3
The long shadow of contractions over potential output Jan. 2018, Box 3.4
Productivity and investment growth during reforms Jan. 2018, Box 3.5
East Asia and Pacific Jan. 2018, Box 2.1.1
Europe and Central Asia Jan. 2018, Box 2.2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean Jan. 2018, Box 2.3.1
Middle East and North Africa Jan. 2018, Box 2.4.1
South Asia Jan. 2018, Box 2.5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa Jan 2018, Box 2.6.1
Cross-border spillovers  
Who catches a cold when emerging markets sneeze? Jan. 2016, Chapter 3
Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS Jan. 2016, Box 3.1
Understanding cross-border growth spillovers Jan. 2016, Box 3.2
Within-region spillovers Jan. 2016, Box 3.3
East Asia and Pacific Jan. 2016, Box 2.1.1
Europe and Central Asia Jan. 2016, Box 2.2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean Jan. 2016, Box 2.3.1
Middle East and North Africa Jan. 2016, Box 2.4.1
South Asia Jan. 2016, Box 2.5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa Jan. 2016, Box 2.6.1
Productivity    
How do disasters affect productivity? June 2020, Box 3.2
Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth Jan. 2020, Chapter 3
EMDE regional productivity trends and bottlenecks Jan. 2020, Box 3.1
Sectoral sources of productivity growth Jan. 2020, Box 3.2
Patterns of total factor productivity: a firm perspective  Jan. 2020, Box 3.3
Debt, financial crises, and productivity Jan. 2020, Box 3.4
Labor productivity in East Asia and Pacific: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.1.1
Labor productivity in Europe and Central Asia: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.2.1
Labor productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.3.1
Labor productivity in Middle East and North Africa: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.4.1
Labor productivity in South Asia: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.5.1
Labor productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and drivers Jan. 2020, Box 2.6.1
Investment slowdown    
Investment: Subdued prospects, strong needs June 2019, SF 1.1
Weak investment in uncertain times: Causes, implications and policy responses Jan. 2017, Chapter 3
Investment-less credit booms Jan. 2017, Box 3.1
Implications of rising uncertainty for investment in EMDEs Jan. 2017, Box 3.2
Investment slowdown in China Jan. 2017, Box 3.3
Interactions between public and private investment Jan. 2017, Box 3.4
East Asia and Pacific Jan. 2017, Box 2.1.1
Europe and Central Asia Jan. 2017, Box 2.2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean Jan. 2017, Box 2.3.1
Middle East and North Africa Jan. 2017, Box 2.4.1
South Asia Jan. 2017, Box 2.5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa Jan. 2017, Box 2.6.1
Forecast uncertainty    
Scenarios of possible global growth outcomes June 2020, Box 1.3
Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts June 2016, SF 2
Fiscal space    
Having space and using it: Fiscal policy challenges and developing economies Jan. 2015, Chapter 3
Fiscal policy in low-income countries Jan. 2015, Box 3.1
What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? Jan. 2015, Box 3.2
Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success Jan. 2015, Box 3.3
Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis Jan. 2015, Box 3.4
Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations Jan. 2015, Box 2.3
Other topics    
Impact of COVID-19 on global economic inequality Jan. 2022
Education demographics and global inequality Jan. 2018, SF 2
Recent developments in emerging and developing country labor markets June 2015, Box 1.3
Linkages between China and Sub-Saharan Africa June 2015, Box 2.1
What does weak growth mean for poverty in the future? Jan. 2015, Box 1.1
What does a slowdown in China mean for Latin America and the Caribbean? Jan. 2015, Box 2.2

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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies  

Asset purchases in emerging markets: Unconventional policies, unconventional times January 2021, Chapter 4
The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup Jan. 2020, Chapter 4
Price controls: Good intentions, bad outcomes Jan. 2020, SF 1
Low for how much longer? Inflation in low-income countries Jan. 2020, SF 2
Currency depreciation, inflation, and central bank independence June 2019, SF 1.2
The great disinflation Jan. 2019, Box 1.1
Corporate debt: Financial stability and investment implications June 2018, SF 2
Recent credit surge in historical context June 2016, SF 1
Peg and control? The links between exchange rate regimes and capital account policies Jan. 2016, Chapter 4
Negative interest rates in Europe: A glance at their causes and implications June 2015, Box 1.1
Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst: Risks around U.S. rate liftoff and policy options June 2015, SF 1
Countercyclical monetary policy in emerging markets: Review and evidence Jan. 2015, Box 1.2

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Fiscal Policies  

Resolving high debt after the pandemic: Lessons from past episodes of debt relief Jan. 2022
How has the pandemic made the fourth wave of debt more dangerous? Jan. 2021, Box 1.1
The fourth wave: Rapid debt buildup Jan. 2020, Chapter 4
Debt: No free lunch June 2019, Box 1.1
Debt in low-income countries: Evolution, implications, and remedies Jan. 2019, Chapter 4
Debt dynamics in emerging market and developing economies: Time to act? June 2017, SF 1
Having fiscal space and using it: Fiscal challenges in developing economies Jan. 2015, Chapter 3
Revenue mobilization in South Asia: Policy challenges and recommendations Jan. 2015, Box 2.3
Fiscal policy in low-income countries Jan. 2015, Box 3.1
What affects the size of fiscal multipliers? Jan. 2015, Box 3.2
Chile’s fiscal rule—an example of success Jan. 2015, Box 3.3
Narrow fiscal space and the risk of a debt crisis Jan. 2015, Box 3.4

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Commodity Markets

Commodity price cycles: Drivers and policies Jan. 2022
Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge June 2020, Box 4.1
Adding fuel to the fire: Cheap oil in the pandemic June 2020, Chapter 4
The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand June 2018, SF 1
The role of the EM7 in commodity production June 2018, Box SF1.1
Commodity consumption: Implications of government policies June 2018, Box SF1.2
With the benefit of hindsight: The impact of the 2014–16 oil price collapse Jan. 2018, SF 1
From commodity discovery to production: Vulnerabilities and policies in LICs Jan. 2016, SF
After the commodities boom: What next for low-income countries? June 2015, SF 2
Low oil prices in perspective June 2015, Box 1.2
Understanding the plunge in oil prices: Sources and implications Jan. 2015, Chapter 4
What do we know about the impact of oil prices on output and inflation? A brief survey Jan. 2015, Box 4.1

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Globalization of Trade and Financial Flows  

High trade costs: Causes and remedies June 2021, Chapter 3
The impact of COVID-19 on global value chains June 2020, Box SF1
Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies Jan. 2019, Chapter 4
Arm’s-Length trade: A source of post-crisis trade weakness June 2017, SF 2
The U.S. economy and the world Jan. 2017, SF
Potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Jan. 2016, Chapter 4
Regulatory convergence in mega-regional trade agreements Jan. 2016, Box 4.1.1
China’s integration in global supply chains: Review and implications Jan. 2015, Box 2.1
Can remittances help promote consumption stability? Jan. 2015, Chapter 4
What lies behind the global trade slowdown? Jan. 2015, Chapter 4

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Selected Other Publications on the Global Economy 

Commodity Markets Outlook  
Urbanization and commodity demand October 2021
Causes and consequences of metal price shocks April 2021
Persistence of commodity shocks October 2020
A shock like no other: The impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets April 2020
Set up to fail? The collapse of commodity agreements April 2020
The role of substitution in commodity demand October 2019
Food price shocks: Channels and implications April 2019
The implications of tariffs for commodity markets October 2018
The changing of the guard: Shifts in industrial commodity demand October 2018
Oil exporters: Policies and challenges April 2018
Investment weakness in commodity exporters January 2017
OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals October 2016
From energy prices to food prices: Moving in tandem? July 2016
Resource development in an era of cheap commodities April 2016
Weak growth in emerging market economies: What does it imply for commodity markets? January 2016
Understanding El Niño: What does it mean for commodity markets? October 2015
How important are China and India in global commodity consumption? July 2015
Anatomy of the last four oil price crashes April 2015
Putting the recent plunge in oil prices in perspective January 2015
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies (2018)   
Inflation: Concepts, evolution, and correlates Chapter 1
Understanding global inflation synchronization Chapter 2
Sources of inflation: Global and domestic drivers Chapter 3
Inflation expectations: Review and evidence Chapter 4
Inflation and exchange rate pass-through Chapter 5
Inflation in low-income countries Chapter 6
Poverty impact of food price shocks and policies Chapter 7
A Decade After the Global Recession:
Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies  (2019)
 
A decade after the global recession: Lessons and challenges Chapter 1
What happens during global recessions? Chapter 2
Macroeconomic developments Chapter 3
Financial market developments Chapter 4
Macroeconomic and financial sector policies Chapter 5
Prospects, risks, and vulnerabilities Chapter 6
Policy challenges Chapter 7
The role of the World Bank Group Chapter 8
Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences (2019)  
Debt: Evolution, causes, and consequences Chapter 1
Benefits and costs of debt: The dose makes the poison Chapter 2
Global waves of debt: What goes up must come down? Chapter 3
The fourth wave: Ripple or tsunami? Chapter 4
Debt and financial crises: From euphoria to distress Chapter 5
Policies: Turning mistakes into experience Chapter 6
Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies (2020)  
Global productivity trends Chapter 1
What explains productivity growth Chapter 2
What happens to productivity during major adverse events? Chapter 3
Productivity convergence: Is anyone catching up? Chapter 4
Regional dimensions of productivity: Trends, explanations, and policies Chapter 5
Productivity: Technology, demand, and employment trade-offs Chapter 6
Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth Chapter 7
The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies (2021)  
Overview Chapter 1
Understanding the informal economy: Concepts and trends Chapter 2
Growing apart or moving together? Synchronization of informal- and formal-economy business cycles Chapter 3
Lagging behind: informality and development Chapter 4
Informality in emerging market and developing economies: Regional dimensions Chapter 5
Tackling informality: Policy options Chapter 6

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Delfin S. Go

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte)

Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration (2016)
(wtih S. Amer Ahmed and Dirk Willenbockel) 

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson) 

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte) 

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, and Delfin S. Go)

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance  (2017)
(with Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, and Karen Thierfelder)

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa (2016)
(with Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, and Delfin Go) 

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco (2015)
(with Hans Lofgren)

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? (2014)
(with S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Maryla Maliszewska)

Jamus Jerome Lim

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer) 

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)

Jamus Jerome Lim

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? (2016)
(with Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge)

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages (2014)
(with Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer) 

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks (2014)
(with Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Sanket Mohapatra, and Marc Stocker)

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (2014)
(with Sanket Mohapatra and Marc Stocker)

Last Updated: Mar 18, 2022




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