Prospects Group Working Papers

These papers were authored or coauthored by current and past members of the Prospects Group, a unit of the World Bank's Development Economics vice presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and contribute to development-policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at

Prospect Group Policy Research Working Papers
Working papers by author | Policy Research Notes


What Explains Global Inflation 
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday

Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies
by Mathilde Lebrand, Garima Vasishtha, and Hakan Yilmazkuday 

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite 
by Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Jeetendra Khadan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki

Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
by Paolo Agnolucci, Carolyn Fischer, Dirk Heine, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Joseph Pryor, Kathleen Patroni, and Stéphane Hallegatte 

Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models : Estimates for 191 Countries 
by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, and Sherman Robinson

International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax 
by Michael Keen, Li Liu, and Hayley Pallan

Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why? 
by Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Carlos A. Vegh

Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia? 
by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic, and Victor Mylonas

The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth
by Agustín Bénétrix, Hayley Pallan, and Ugo Panizza

Commodity Price Cycles: Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers
by Alain Kabundi and Hamza Zahid

Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution 
by Hamza Zahid

Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 
by Francisco Arroyo Marioli, Antonio Fatás, and Garima Vasishtha

The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies 
by Kersten Stamm and Dana Vorisek

Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options
by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Collette Wheeler 

The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities
by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Sinem Kilic Celik, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Collette Wheeler 

Potential Growth: A Global Database
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and F. Ulrich Ruch

Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable
by Franziska Ohnsorge and Lucia Quaglietti 

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices?
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday 


How Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends.
by Carlos Arteta, Steven Kamin, and Franz Ulrich Ruch

From Financial Development to Informality: A Causal Link 
by Salvatore Capasso, Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Shu Yu

Global Job Quality: Evidence from Wage Employment across Developing Countries 
by Shoghik Hovhannisyan, Veronica Montalva-Talledo, Tyler Remick, Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, and Kersten Stamm 

Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy
by Justin Damien Guénette, Philip Kenworthy, and Collette Wheeler

Demand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls 
by Franz Ulrich Ruch and Temel Taskin


What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing?
by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose

Sectoral Value Added — Electricity Elasticities across Countries 
by Shoghik Hovhannisyan and Kersten Stamm

Commodity Price Shocks: Order within Chaos 
bu John Baffes and Alain Ntumba

Understanding FDI Spillovers in the Presence of GVCs 
by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Wei Xiang, Fahad Khan   

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

The Aftermath of Debt Surges
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies
by Franz Ulrich Ruch

Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia During the COVID-19 Recession
by Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze

Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Justin-Damien Guenette and Takefumi Yamazaki

The Technology-Employment Trade-Off: Automation, Industry, and Income Effects
by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon


Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity
by Alistair Dieppe, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Cedric Okou

Productivity Convergence: Is Anyone Catching Up?
by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Cedric Okou

Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets
by Alain Ntumba Kabundi and Franziska Ohnsorge

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic 
by Collette Mari Wheeler, John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge 

A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies
by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu

A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments
by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu

Tax Competition: Is It a Source of the Corporate Savings Glut? 
by Atsushi Kawamoto and Kei Muraki 

Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition
by Hideaki Matsuoka

Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19: A Global View 
by William Maloney and Temel Taskin

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes
by Justin-Damien Guenette

Policy Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade 
by Franz Ulrich Ruch 

Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade
by Franz Ulrich Ruch 

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt 
by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies 
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Global Recessions 
by M. Ayhan Kose, Naotaka Sugawara, and Marco E. Terrones

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison 
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession 
by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge

Understanding the Cost of Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals 
by Dana Vorisek and Shu Yu

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies 
by Ichiro Fukunaga, Takuji Komatsuzaki, and Hideaki Matsuoka

The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand 
by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, and Peter Nagle

Debt and Financial Crises
by Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara


New Approaches to the Identification of Low-Frequency Drivers: An Application to Technology Shocks
by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Growth in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Prospects, and Policies
by Rudi Steinbach

Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality
by Mohammad Amin, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Cedric Iltis Finafa Okou

Inflation in Low-Income Countries
Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Peter J. Montiel, and Peter Jouis Pedroni

Quality of Management of Firms in Turkey
by Ximena Del Carpio and Temel Taskin

Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies
by Sebastian Michael Essl, Sinem Kilic Celik, Patrick Alexander Kirby, and Andre Proite

Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence
by M. Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo G. Panizza, and Dana Lauren Vorisek

Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge 

Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
by Jongrim Ha, Marc Stocker, and Hakan Yilmazkuday

Global Inflation Synchronization
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge

Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates
by Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando 


Potential Growth: Outlook and Options for the Russian Federation
by Yoki Okawa and Apurva Sanghi

Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response to Trade Disputes 
by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, Csilla Lakatos, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder

Corporate Debt Overhang and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence
by Eduardo Borensztein and Lei Sandy Ye

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand 
by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications
by John Baffes, Marc Stocker, Y. Modeste Some, Dana Vorisek, and Collette M. Wheeler


The Global Costs of Protectionism 
by Csilla Lakatos and Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova

Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey
by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens

Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Inperfections: A Survey
by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space
by M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

A Proximity-Based Approach to Labor Mobility in CGE Models with an Application to Sub-Saharan Africa
by Hans Lofgren and Martín Cicowiez

Arm's-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness
by Csilla Lakatos and Franziska Lieselotte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World 
by Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance
by Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses
by Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Gerard Kambou, Derek Chen, Boaz Nandwa, Yoki Okawa, and Dana Vorisek

Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Lei Sandy Ye, Ergys Islamaj

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers
by M. Ayhan Kose, Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker


Demographic Change and Development Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Bryce Quillin, and Philip Schellekens

From Commodity Discovery to Production
by Tehmina Khan, Trang Nguyen, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Richard Schodde

Resource Misallocation in Turkey
by Ha Nguyen, Temel Taskin and Ayberk Yilmaz

Impact of Social Assistance on Labor Market Mobility: The Case of Turkey
by Deniz Alcan, Raif Can, Temel Taskin and William Wiseman

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
by Carlos Arteta, M. Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin 

On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty
by Marcio Cruz and S. Amer Ahmed

Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa
by S. Amer Ahmed and Marcio Cruz

Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts
by Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker, and Modeste Y. Some

Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context
by Franziska Ohnsorge and Shu Yu 

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus J. Lim, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies
by Raju Huidrom M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
by Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Delfin Go 

Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration
by S. Amer Ahmed, Delfin S. Go, and Dirk Willenbockel 

Organizing Knowledge to Compete Impacts of Capacity Building Programs on Firm Organization
by Marcio Cruz, Maurizio Bussolo, and Leonardo Iacovone

How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? International Evidence
by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose

Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa
by Edward J. Balistreri, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, David G. Tarr, and Hidemichi Yonezawa 

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?
by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis

Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran Global Effects and Strategic Responses: Global Effects and Strategic Responses
by Elena Ianchovichina, Shantayanan Devarajan, and Csilla Lakatos


A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco
by Israel Osorio Rodarte and Hans Lofgren

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
by John Baffes and Xiaoli L. Etienne

Sources of Volatility during Four Oil Price Crashes
by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar

What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market
by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar

Does Input Tariff Reduction Impact Firms’ Exports in the Presence of Import Tariff Exemption Regimes?
by Marcio Cruz and Maurizio Bussolo

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
by Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson 


How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?
by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte 

Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
by Marcio Cruz

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages
by Maurizio Bussolo, Jamus Jerome Lim, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer 

The Long-Awaited Rise of the Middle Class in Latin America Is Finally Happening
by Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Elie Murard 

Beyond the Income Effect Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs on Private Investments in Human Capital
by Marcio Cruz and Zacharias Ziegelhöfer

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks
by Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries
by Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker


Creating and Using Fiscal Space for Accelerated Development in Liberia
by Hans Lofgren

Infrastructure for Growth and Human Development in Pakistan: A Simulation Analysis of Fiscal Policy Options
by Jouko Kinnunen and Hans Lofgren

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices
by John Baffes

Closing Rural-Urban MDG Gaps in Low-Income Countries: A General Equilibrium Perspective
by Hans Lofgren

External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution: Alternative Scenarios for Moldova
by Jouko Kinnunen, Hans Lofgren, Victor Sulla, and Dino Merotto 

2012 and before

Liberia: Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development
by Sébastien Dessus, Jariya Hoffman, and Hans Lofgren 

World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries
by Hans Lofgren

Achieving the MDGs in Yemen: An Assessment
by Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly, Mohamed Al-Hawri, Martin Cicowiez, Hans Lofgren, and Mohammad Pournik 

Cotton, Biotechnology, and Economic Development (2011)
by John Baffes

How Important Is the Efficiency of Government Investment? The Case of the Republic of Congo (2011)
by Hannah Nielsen and Hans Lofgren

Cotton Subsidies, the WTO, and the "Cotton Problem" (2011)
by John Baffes

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective (2010)
by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis

Markets for Cotton By-Products: Global Trends and Implications for African Cotton Producers (2010)
by John Baffes

More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link (2009)
by John Baffes 

Aid, Service Delivery, and the Millennium Development Goals in an Economy-wide Framework (2008)
by François Bourguignon, Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, and Hans Lofgren 

Oil Spills on Other Commodities (2007)
by John Baffes 

Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters (2006)
by John Baffes

The Co-movement between Cotton and Polyester Prices (2005)
by John Baffes (World Bank) and Gaston Gohou (University of Maryland)

Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling (2005)
by John Baffes (World Bank) and Harry de Gorter (Cornell University)

Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues (2004)
by John Baffes 

Policy Research Notes

These research notes are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy.

Last Updated: Dec 21, 2023

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