Fragility, Conflict & Violence

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) present a critical development challenge that threatens efforts to end extreme poverty in both low- and middle-income countries. By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor could live in FCV settings. Conflicts also drive 80% of all humanitarian needs.

Violent conflict has spiked dramatically in the last decade, and the fragility landscape is becoming more complex. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has seen a series of massive setbacks to stability in regions across the world: from Asia and Africa to Latin America and the Caribbean and more recently in Eastern Europe.

These latest developments add on to a multitude of risks affecting FCV settings, including food insecurity, climate change, rising inequality, demographic change, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic.

• World Bank estimates show that an additional 20 million people are living in extreme poverty in countries affected by FCV since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Around 81 percent of the nearly 193 million people estimated to be experiencing acute food insecurity in 2021 were in countries affected by FCV.
• Real income per capita in 2023 is projected to still fall short of pre-pandemic levels in almost 50% of lower-income economies affected by fragility and conflict. 
• The war in Ukraine is disrupting livelihoods, affecting energy and commodity markets, and placing further stresses on areas that were already fragile, such as Yemen and the Sahel.

Forced displacement is a developing world crisis, which must be addressed with collective action:

• More than 100 million people were estimated to be forcibly displaced by May 2022 –after the war in Ukraine caused the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since the end of World War II.
• By end-2021, 85% of 27.1 million refugees were hosted in developing countries.
• Approximately three out of four refugees have been displaced for at least five years.
• More than two thirds (69%) of all refugees worldwide came from just five countries.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022

As an institution born in the aftermath of World War II, reconstruction and development to foster stability is part of the WBG’s core expertise. Responding to an increasingly complex fragility landscape, the WBG is taking a broader approach to FCV that aims to address sources of instability and build resilience. The WBG will remain engaged during active conflict, and in countries going through recovery and transition. Stronger collaboration with humanitarian-development-peace partners is critical to success.

A record-breaking  $30 billion in financing for FCV-affected countries approved in December 2021 under the International Development Association’s (IDA) 20th replenishment is getting tailored to meet diverse challenges in the poorest countries. These countries will also have access to additional IDA resources to address specific thematic issues so they can get support at every stage of the conflict cycle: helping prevent the escalation of conflicts, remaining engaged during crisis and post-crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions, and helping create development opportunities for refugees and host communities.

Building on this progress, the WBG has developed a comprehensive strategy to address the drivers of FCV in affected countries and their impact on vulnerable populations, with the ultimate goal of contributing to peace and prosperity.

While our mandate is long-term development, we are acting swiftly when the need arises. In early March 2022,  our Board approved fast-disbursing support for Ukraine to help pay wages for hospital workers, pensions for the elderly, and social programs for the vulnerable (see more updates on our support to Ukraine).

Our support builds on our analysis and strategy in each county affected by FCV, where we are committed to: 

• addressing the root causes of fragility before they escalate into conflict; 
• remaining engaged in crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions;
• strengthening the social contract between citizens and the state;
• ensuring inclusion of the most vulnerable and marginalized. 

More and better financing is also needed at scale to enhance the Bank’s effectiveness in the most insecure environments.

The State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF), established in 2008, is the WBG’s largest, global multi-donor trust fund supporting interventions in FCV contexts. Aligned with the World Bank Group Strategy for FCV, the ability -of the SPF to respond rapidly to emerging needs and its flexibility in working across all countries and territories— including middle-income countries with pockets of fragility, non-member countries, and countries in arrears— has enabled an expansion of the World Bank’s capacity to work in these environments. The SPF’s demand-driven approach allows the fund to remain flexible and to focus on innovation and catalytic funding.

To help middle-income countries address the refugee crisis, the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), established in partnership with the UN and Islamic Development Bank and administered by the World Bank, has so far provided more than $725 million in grants to leverage almost $5.5 billion in concessional financing. These grants are benefiting Syrian refugees and their Jordanian and Lebanese host communities, promoting job creation and expanding vital public services and infrastructure. They are also supporting the needs of Venezuelan nationals who fled an ongoing crisis at home, and of their host communities in Colombia and Ecuador.

To deliver, the Bank is deepening its knowledge and expanding its ”toolkit” for FCV. This includes:

• A Development Approach to Conflict-Induced Internal Displacement: outlines several recommendations to further step up our support to conflict-induced internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their hosts.
• Risk and Resilience Assessments: serve as the basis for country engagements and inform the preparation of the Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCD) and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPF). They also aim to address significant risks and shocks of different kinds.
• Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessments: provide a platform to help governments and their international partners identify, prioritize and sequence recovery and peacebuilding activities and coordinate support for planning and implementation.
• Joint UN-World Bank Study, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict: aims to improve understanding of how development processes interact with security, diplomatic, and other approaches to prevent conflict from becoming violent, published in March 2018.
• Forcibly Displaced Flagship Study: examines available data to better understand the scope of the challenge, and suggests a development approach that supports both refugees and host communities with long-term solutions.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) works with the World Bank, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other partners to identify private sector solutions and opportunities for refugees and their host communities. It has four aims: creating jobs by boosting access to finance and entrepreneurship, improving the delivery of basic services like education and energy, encouraging business-friendly policies in refugee-hosting areas, and sharing lessons learned while deepening partnerships.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022

Highlights from the World Bank Group’s operational work

Horn of Africa: The 2017 Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project (DRDIP), is a $428 million regional operation in the Horn of Africa covering Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, which seeks to mitigate the social, economic and environmental impacts of protracted refugee presence. It invests in improving access to education, health, water facilities and road access; as well as expanding economic opportunities and enhancing environmental management for communities hosting refugees. As of September 2020, 630 community infrastructure subprojects have been completed, providing improved access to social and economic services and infrastructure for over 2.5 million people and 330,000 days of paid labor for construction work. This has meant that 74,000 people have improved access to energy, 82,000 beneficiaries have reported increased income, and sustainable land management practices have been adopted on 19,000 hectares of land.

Yemen: The Yemen Integrated Urban Services Emergency Project is restoring basic services in some of Yemen’s cities hardest hit by the ongoing conflict. To date, more than three million beneficiaries have regained access to critical urban services, 266 kilometers of roads and streets have been rehabilitated, and 1,200,000 people have access to clean water and sanitation while over a million tons of accumulated trash have been safely disposed of. In addition, 106,000 megawatt hours of clean solar energy have been provided to 205 hospitals and schools.

Central African Republic: With about a quarter of its population displaced, the situation in CAR has the potential to destabilize fragile neighboring countries. The Bank’s Londo (“Stand Up”) Project provides temporary employment to vulnerable people through national labor-intensive public works programs –most recently, producing millions of face masks to control the spread of COVID-19. The project has successfully deployed in rebel-controlled areas and set examples in partnering with peacekeeping forces and the humanitarian community.

Sahel: The Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend project (SWEDD) approved in December 2014 is helping empower adolescent girls, and women, and increase their access to quality education and reproductive, child and maternal health services in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. About 160,000 girls and adolescents have received a scholarship to go to school since 2015 and over 3,400 safe spaces have been established where about 120,000 out-of-school girls are taught life skills, sexual reproductive health knowledge, literacy, and numeracy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus is on helping adolescents return to school and preventing gender-based violence.

Lebanon: The National Volunteer Service Program seeks to increase social cohesion and employability among Lebanese youth aged 15-24 through the delivery of soft skills training and the promotion of civic engagement for improved social service delivery. To date, more than 7,000 youths and 150 different municipalities, NGOs, schools, and universities have been directly involved in the project’s activities. This project is supported by the State and Peacebuilding Fund and the Middle East and North Africa Multi-Donor Trust Fund.

See more World Bank results in situations affected by fragility, conflict and violence.

Sharing Knowledge to Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies

The Fragility Forum 2022, which was organized as a virtual event for the second time due to concerns around COVID-19, brought together more than 5,000 participants from across the development, humanitarian, diplomatic and security communities to share their knowledge under the theme “Development and Peace in Uncertain Times.”

Last Updated: Apr 13, 2022