Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) present a critical development challenge that threatens efforts to end extreme poverty in both low- and middle-income countries. By 2024, projections are that the total number of extreme poor in FCV-affected settings may surpass that in non-FCV settings. And by 2030, an estimated 59% of global extreme poor will be in countries affected by FCV.
Violent conflict has spiked dramatically since 2010 in several regions, and the fragility landscape is becoming more complex. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has seen a series of massive setbacks to stability in regions across the world: from Asia and Africa to Latin America and the Caribbean, and more recently in Eastern Europe.
These latest developments add on to a multitude of risks affecting FCV settings, which include food insecurity, climate change, rising inequality, demographic change, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic.
- World Bank estimates show that an additional 20 million people are living in extreme poverty in countries affected by FCV since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Severe food insecurity, which is estimated to affect over 240 million people until 2027, is twice as prevalent in FCV-affected countries.
- In fragile and conflict-affected areas, average per-capita incomes are expected to decline by 2024.
- The war in Ukraine is disrupting livelihoods, affecting energy and commodity markets, and placing further stresses on areas that were already fragile, such as Yemen and the Sahel.
Forced displacement is a developing world crisis, which must be addressed with collective action:
- A total of 103 million people were estimated to be forcibly displaced by mid-2022 –after the war in Ukraine caused the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since the end of World War II.
- About 74% of 32.5 million refugees were hosted in low and middle-income countries.
- Approximately three out of four refugees have been displaced for at least five years.
- More than 7 out of 10 refugees worldwide originate from just five countries.
Last Updated: Apr 27, 2023