Fragility, Conflict & Violence

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) present a critical development challenge that threatens efforts to end extreme poverty in both low- and middle-income countries. By 2024, projections are that the total number of extreme poor in FCV-affected settings may surpass that in non-FCV settings. And by 2030, an estimated 59% of global extreme poor will be in countries affected by FCV. 

Violent conflict has spiked dramatically since 2010 in several regions, and the fragility landscape is becoming more complex. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has seen a series of massive setbacks to stability in regions across the world: from Asia and Africa to Latin America and the Caribbean, and more recently in Eastern Europe. 

These latest developments add on to a multitude of risks affecting FCV settings, which include food insecurity, climate change, rising inequality, demographic change, and the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic.

• World Bank estimates show that an additional 20 million people are living in extreme poverty in countries affected by FCV since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Severe food insecurity, which is estimated to affect over 240 million people until 2027, is twice as prevalent in FCV-affected countries.
• In fragile and conflict-affected areas, average per-capita incomes are expected to decline by 2024.
• The war in Ukraine is disrupting livelihoods, affecting energy and commodity markets, and placing further stresses on areas that were already fragile, such as Yemen and the Sahel.

Forced displacement is a developing world crisis, which must be addressed with collective action:

• A total of 103 million people were estimated to be forcibly displaced by mid-2022 –after the war in Ukraine caused the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since the end of World War II.
• About 74% of 32.5 million refugees were hosted in low and middle-income countries.
• Approximately three out of four refugees have been displaced for at least five years.
• More than 7 out of 10 refugees worldwide originate from just five countries.

Last Updated: Apr 27, 2023

As an institution born in the aftermath of World War II, reconstruction and development to foster stability is part of the WB’s core expertise. Responding to an increasingly complex fragility landscape, the WB is taking a broader approach to FCV that aims to address sources of instability and build resilience. The WB will remain engaged during active conflict, and in countries going through recovery and transition. Stronger collaboration with humanitarian-development-peace partners is critical to success.

A record-breaking  $30 billion in financing for FCV-affected countries approved in December 2021 under the International Development Association’s (IDA) 20th replenishment is getting tailored to meet diverse challenges in the poorest countries. These countries will also have access to additional IDA resources to address specific thematic issues so they can get support at every stage of the conflict cycle: helping prevent the escalation of conflicts, remaining engaged during crisis and post-crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions, and helping create development opportunities for refugees and host communities.

Building on this progress, the WB has developed a comprehensive strategy to address the drivers of FCV in affected countries and their impact on vulnerable populations, with the ultimate goal of contributing to peace and prosperity.

While our mandate is long-term development, we are acting swiftly when the need arises. In early March 2022,  our Board approved fast-disbursing support for Ukraine to help pay wages for hospital workers, pensions for the elderly, and social programs for the vulnerable (see more updates on our support to Ukraine).

Our support builds on our analysis and strategy in each county affected by FCV, where we are committed to: 

• addressing the root causes of fragility before they escalate into conflict; 
• remaining engaged in crisis situations to preserve human capital and key institutions;
• strengthening the social contract between citizens and the state;
• ensuring inclusion of the most vulnerable and marginalized. 

More and better financing is also needed at scale to enhance the Bank’s effectiveness in the most insecure environments.

The State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF), established in 2008, is the WB’s largest, global multi-donor trust fund supporting interventions in FCV contexts. Aligned with the World Bank Strategy for FCV, the ability -of the SPF to respond rapidly to emerging needs and its flexibility in working across all countries and territories— including middle-income countries with pockets of fragility, non-member countries, and countries in arrears— has enabled an expansion of the World Bank’s capacity to work in these environments. The SPF’s demand-driven approach allows the fund to remain flexible and to focus on innovation and catalytic funding.

To help middle-income countries address the refugee crisis, the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), established in partnership with the UN and Islamic Development Bank and administered by the World Bank, has so far provided more than $755 million in grants to leverage almost $6.1 billion in concessional financing. These grants are benefiting Syrian refugees and their Jordanian and Lebanese host communities, promoting job creation and expanding vital public services and infrastructure. They are also supporting the needs of Venezuelan nationals who fled an ongoing crisis at home, and of their host communities in Colombia and Ecuador. And they are helping equip Moldova to boost policies and programs to better assist the integration of Ukrainian refugees.

To deliver, the Bank is deepening its knowledge and expanding its ”toolkit” for FCV. This includes:

• Fragility, Conflict, and Violence in Middle-income Countries lays out options for the World Bank and other development agencies to work more effectively in these situations.
• A Development Approach to Conflict-Induced Internal Displacement: outlines several recommendations to further step up our support to conflict-induced internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their hosts.
• Risk and Resilience Assessments: serve as the basis for country engagements and inform the preparation of the Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCD) and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPF). They also aim to address significant risks and shocks of different kinds.
• Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessments: provide a platform to help governments and their international partners identify, prioritize and sequence recovery and peacebuilding activities and coordinate support for planning and implementation.
• Joint UN-World Bank Study, Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict: aims to improve understanding of how development processes interact with security, diplomatic, and other approaches to prevent conflict from becoming violent, published in March 2018.
• Forcibly Displaced Flagship Study: examines available data to better understand the scope of the challenge, and suggests a development approach that supports both refugees and host communities with long-term solutions.

Supporting sustainable Investments in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) is a priority for the International Finance Corporation (IFC). These economies need investments that will create jobs, spur economic growth, generate tax revenues, rebuild infrastructure, and create hope for their people. Among Development Finance Institutions, IFC is leading in this space, investing and mobilizing nearly $14 billion in FCS over the last decade. IFC also provides advisory support to help develop a pipeline of sustainable investments in these contexts.

Last Updated: Apr 27, 2023

Highlights from the World Bank’s operational work

Horn of Africa: The 2017 Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project (DRDIP), is a $428 million regional operation in the Horn of Africa covering Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, which seeks to mitigate the social, economic and environmental impacts of protracted refugee presence. It invests in improving access to education, health, water facilities and road access; as well as expanding economic opportunities and enhancing environmental management for communities hosting refugees. As of February 2022, over 2,000 community infrastructure subprojects have been completed, providing improved access to social and economic services and infrastructure for over 5.4 million people and 4 million days of paid labor for construction work. This has meant that 140,000 people have improved access to energy, 300,000 beneficiaries have reported increased income, and sustainable land management practices have been adopted on 40,000 hectares of land.

Yemen: The Yemen Integrated Urban Services Emergency Project is restoring basic services in some of Yemen’s cities hardest hit by the ongoing conflict. Between 2017 and 2021, the project helped 3.05 million beneficiaries regain access to critical urban services and generated more than 1.6-million-person days of temporary employment. Urban services included safely disposing of over 1 million cubic meters of uncollected trash, providing access to water and sanitation to 1.2 million people and 266 kms of roads repaired to better access health facilities.

Central African Republic: With about a quarter of its population displaced, the situation in CAR has the potential to destabilize fragile neighboring countries. The Bank’s Londo (“Stand Up”) Project provides temporary employment to vulnerable people through national labor-intensive public works programs –most recently, producing millions of face masks to control the spread of COVID-19. The project has successfully deployed in rebel-controlled areas and set examples in partnering with peacekeeping forces and the humanitarian community.

Sahel: The Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend project (SWEDD) approved in December 2014 is helping empower adolescent girls, and women, and increase their access to quality education and reproductive, child and maternal health services in Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. Over 675,000 girls have benefited from these interventions; more than 9,200 midwives have been trained to promote adolescent-friendly services and community-based distribution of family planning products; there are 451,000 new users of modern contraception; and close to 13,400 religious leaders engaged by SWEDD actively promote girls and women’s empowerment

Jordan: The Emergency Health Project has provided critical primary and secondary health care services for poor, uninsured Jordanians and Syrian refugees since 2017, including maternal and child health, and treatment of communicable and non-communicable diseases at over 700 health centers and hospitals run by the Ministry of Health across the country. By March 2023, more than 8 million health care services have been provided, of which 4.4 million were for women and almost 250,000 for refugees. The project continued to provide primary and secondary healthcare services during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The project has helped establish the first systematic mechanism to track health services provided to vulnerable populations, including Syrian refugees.

See more World Bank results in situations affected by fragility, conflict and violence.

Sharing Knowledge to Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies

The Fragility Forum 2022, which was organized as a virtual event for the second time due to concerns around COVID-19, brought together more than 5,000 participants from across the development, humanitarian, diplomatic and security communities to share their knowledge under the theme “Development and Peace in Uncertain Times.”

Last Updated: Apr 27, 2023