Located in the westernmost part of the African continent, Senegal is bordered by Mauritania, Mali, Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau. Senegal enjoys a dry tropical climate and has a population of 16.7 million people, a quarter of whom live in the Dakar area (0.3% of the territory).
Political Context
Senegal is one of the most stable countries in Africa, with three peaceful political transitions since independence in 1960. In power since 2012, President Macky Sall was elected to a second five-year term in office in February 2019.
The legislative elections of July 31, 2022 created an unprecedented situation in Senegal with a national assembly without an absolute majority. The ruling coalition, Benno Bokk Yakaar (United in Hope), won 82 out of 165 seats, with the five opposition coalitions sharing the other 83: Yewwi Askan Wi (Liberate the People, 56), Wallu (Rescue Senegal, 24), Bokk Guiss Guiss (Same Vision, 1), Aar Senegal (Protect Senegal, 1) and Les Serviteurs (The Servants, 1).
While Senegal has so far been spared the violence engulfing the region, terrorist group activities in neighboring countries and cross-border trafficking risk fueling instability.
Economic Overview
Senegal’s GDP in 2020 stood at $24.9 billion in current terms. Its per capita gross national income (GNI) was $1,430 in 2020, making it a lower-middle-income country.
Senegal’s economy grew by more than 6% per year between 2014 and 2018. Real GDP growth stood at 0.87% in 2020, down from 4.4% in 2019, and 6.2% in 2018.
However, the recovery is being undermined by the conflict in Ukraine. Real growth is expected to slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 5% in 2022 as private consumption and investment are declining owing to higher food and energy prices and greater uncertainty. Average inflation is expected to peak at 5.5% in 2022, as a result of trade disruptions exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, with energy and food prices rising the most. The pandemic has significantly altered the country’s economic outlook, affecting services such as tourism and transport, and exports. Senegal has responded with several containment measures and has implemented an Economic and Social Resilience Program (Programme de Résilience Économique et Sociale, PRES). Nevertheless, limited fiscal buffers and safety nets, a vulnerable health care system, and a large informal sector pose challenges.
Economic recovery will likely be gradual. Reforms envisaged under the Emerging Senegal Plan (Plan Sénégal Émergent, PSE) need to be deepened for growth to resume its pre-pandemic trajectory. Services remain the main contributor to GDP, and the primary sector (agriculture, in particular) the most dynamic engine of growth. Oil and gas projects have been delayed because of the health crisis and are not expected to contribute to revenues and exports before 2035.
Development Challenges
Senegal’s key development challenge is to mitigate the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic while enabling sustainable and inclusive growth. This will require:
- Improving resilience to macro-fiscal, environmental, climate change, and social risks to safeguard investments in human capital and household livelihoods.
- Boosting and protecting human capital for productivity growth; Enhancing competitiveness and job creation by improving digital and physical connectivity at the national and regional levels and increasing the efficiency of labor markets.
- Lowering energy costs, reducing the carbon footprint, and optimizing the energy mix.
- Promoting the services economy and boosting the productivity and competitiveness of agriculture and related value chains.
Social Context
The COVID-19 pandemic risks jeopardizing the socioeconomic gains achieved through improved access to key services. This could generate severe losses for households through shortfalls in labor and non-labor income, domestic price inflation, and disruptions in basic services.
Last Updated: Sep 22, 2022