The World Bank in Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries, has a population of about 1.9 million. Guinea-Bissau borders Senegal to the north and Guinea to the south, and it’s Atlantic Ocean coast is composed of the Bijagós archipelago, with more than 100 islands. Despite its size, Guinea-Bissau is host to a large variety of ethnic groups, languages, and religions.

Political Context

Guinea-Bissau has a history of political and institutional fragility dating back to its independence from Portugal in 1974. It is one of the most coup-prone and politically unstable countries in the world. Since independence, four successful coups have been recorded, with another 17 coups attempted, plotted, or alleged. Some progress has been made with the previous president, José Mário Vaz to be the first to complete a full term since independence. The 2019 presidential elections were followed by a political crisis that ended in April 2020 with ECOWAS recognition of Umaro Sissoco Embaló as President of the Republic. Legislative elections took place in June 2023. Presidential elections will take place at the end of 2025.

Economic Overview

Real economic growth slowed to 3.5% in 2022, down from 6.4% in 2021. This was driven by supply chain disruptions and reduced demand and economic activity, caused by pandemic containing measures and policies. Inflation increased to 7.8%, from 3.3% in 2021. The overall fiscal deficit fell marginally from 5.5% of GDP in 2021 to 5.2% in 2022. Tax revenue remained the same at 9.1%, equating to a wage-to-tax-revenue ratio of approximately 65.3%. On the expenditure side, total government spending decreased slightly from 24.5% of GDP in 2021 to 23.3% in 2022. Public debt reached 80.2% as a result.

Real GDP growth is projected to fall to 2.8% (0.7% in per capita terms) in 2023, as a result of weak international demand for cashew and exports. Despite strong domestic production smuggling means weak export performance for cashew, which coupled with budget overspend will widen the fiscal deficit to 9.6%. Debt is forecasted to fall to 83.1% of GDP. Inflation is projected to increase to 8.6%.

The outlook is subject to downside risks from continued inflationary pressures, shocks to the cashew sector, political instability, fiscal risks, and climatic shocks. Risks associated with banking instability and the SOE sector also remain a threat to macro-financial stability.

Another steep increase in oil prices would also put pressure on the external current account balance and leave fewer resources for pro-poor government spending. Addressing high inequality in the country also requires efforts to improve service delivery and enhance access to basic services. However, accelerating or even sustaining the pace of poverty reduction will be difficult if the major development challenges that constrain growth, inclusiveness, and sustainability are not addressed.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

World Bank Engagement in Guinea-Bissau

The World Bank Group engagement in Guinea-Bissau is guided by a Country Partnership Framework (CPF) reassessed through PLR approved in July 2021, and that extended the CPF period from FY21 to FY23. The revised CPF (FY18-23) has two focus areas:

• Expand economic opportunities and enhance resilience; and
• Bolster human capital through improved education, health, and social protection.

The most recent Systematic Country Diagnostic identified several interconnected binding constraints to sustainably reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity, including:

• Lack of inclusiveness and low rural productivity.
• Low and unstable economic growth.
• Fragility and weak governance.

Portfolio

The active World Bank Group portfolio for Guinea-Bissau includes eight national projects ($210 million), and four regional operations ($183 million) for a total commitment of $393 million, funded by the International Development Association (IDA).

COVID-19 Response

Two new operations were approved in FY20 and FY21 respectively to reinforce World Bank support to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank is supporting the COVID-19 response through:

• Guinea-Bissau Emergency Food Security Project designed to support increased food crop production; and increase access to food for consumption by food insecure households.
• Guinea-Bissau COVID-19 Vaccine Project to prevent, detect and response to the threat posed by COVID-19 and strengthen national systems for public health preparedness.
• Regional Project to Strengthen Health Surveillance in West Africa (REDISSE II) for acquisition of medical inputs, personal protective equipment (PPE), laboratory inputs (tests), ambulances and support of health surveillance actions.

Provided technical support to the Ministry of Education in the elaboration of both the National Contingency Plan for the Education Sector in response to COVID-19 pandemic and to prepare the COVID-19 Accelerated Funding Request to be submitted to the Global Partnership for Education.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

Active projects:

COVID-19 Vaccine Project (P176721)

• 50% of the population is fully vaccinated.
• Risk Communication and Community Engagement Strategy for COVID-19 Vaccination developed.
• Pharmacovigilance Systems (PVS) adapted to detect Adverse Events Following Vaccination (AEFI) for the COVID-19 Vaccines.

Strengthening Maternal and Child Health Service Delivery (P163954)

• 38% of the deliveries in health facilities.
• 97% of children under-five with confirmed malaria receive antimalaria treatment.
• 35 primary health workers trained in Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health competencies.
• 73,000 individuals have received essential health, nutrition, and population services.
• 85,423 children immunized.
• 177,353 women and children have received basic nutrition services.

Quality Education Project (P160678)

• 3,914 students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning.
• 3,027 teachers recruited or trained.
• Development and adoption of school management committee policy and manual.
• 84 school inspectors’ visits to targeted schools.
• 10 primary schools with grades 1-4 using the new curriculum.
• Basic education statistics for 5 regions targeted by the project available annually.

Emergency Water and Electricity Services Upgrading Project (P148797)

• 76,768 people in urban areas (Bissau) provided with access to improved water sources.
• 210,300 people benefiting in Bissau from enhanced electricity services.
• 6,146 new piped household water connections that are resulting from the project intervention.
• 21,030 prepaid meters installed.

Guinea Bissau Food Security Emergency Project (P174336)

• 58,451 farmers reached with agricultural assets or services, more than 60% of which are women.
• 65,810 metric tons of food crops produced through project support.
• 1,278.47 metric tons of improved seeds varieties, 500 metric tons of fertilizers and small machinery distributed to over to support vulnerable households to increase food production during the off-season.
• 1,006.28 metric tons of rice seeds, 92.53 metric tons of vegetable seeds and 500 metric tons of fertilizers procured and distributed to farmers during the rainy season.
• 205,957 animals vaccinated or treated for common diseases.
• 13,338 women benefiting from kitchen garden inputs.

Guinea-Bissau - Rural Transport Project (P161923)

• 3 markets accessible all year by road (Ingore, Barro, Bigene, Binta, and Guidaje).
• 19 schools and health centers that have become accessible all year round as a result of the project.
• 22,166.00 beneficiaries living within 2 km of the rural roads improved by the project.
• 50 km of road between Ingore and Pont Caur with improved access.
• From 3.50 to 1.3 hours of travel time in National Road 3 connected with regional transport corridor.
• 12.60% of women employed in rehabilitation and routine maintenance road works.

OMVG Interconnection Project (P146830)

• 94.6% of the interconnection between Senegal, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and The Gambia for enable electricity trade is completed (progress on the transmission line stands at 99% and progress on the substations stands at 96.14%, with 1482 km out of 1677km of the line completed. The remaining works are on L5 (Boke-Saltinho-Bambandinca- Mansoa-Tanaff in Guinea Bissau which stands at 93.6% from 92.5%).                                 

Recently closed projects:

West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project - SOP3 (P155876)

• The volume of international traffic has increased from 3,70 to 27,44 kbps per number of subscribers.
• Access to improved internet services increased from 4.6% to 73%.
• Access to telephone services has significantly improved from 73% to 110%.
• 1,834,700 beneficiaries have access to internet services with improved quality and higher affordability of the service.

Safety Nets and Basic Services Project (P163901)

• 5,968 households (more than 50,000 individuals) have benefitted from at least one quarterly cash transfer, 52% of which are women.
• 53,596 people have access to improved water source.

30,240 individuals have been provided access to an all-season road.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

Guinea-Bissau’s main development partners are the European Union (EU), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the West Africa Economic Monetary Union (WAEMU), the West Africa Development Bank (BOAD), the African Development Bank (AfDB), Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), United Nations agencies, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023