The World Bank in Georgia

Country Context

Georgia has had a successful development record over the past decade, underpinned by prudent economic management. Growth averaged 4 percent per annum between 2011 and 2021. The country’s poverty rate, measured by the international upper-middle-income line (US$6.85 per capita per day, 2017 PPP), declined from 69 percent in 2011 to 53 percent in 2021. Nevertheless, critical structural challenges persist, notably weak productivity and difficulties to create high-quality jobs. Many Georgians in rural areas remain engaged in low productivity agriculture. Human capital formation remains weak, with poor learning outcomes, and skills shortages a problem for doing business and firm growth. In addition, Georgia’s trade openness, and reliance on income from tourism, make it vulnerable to external and global shocks. High dollarization and persistent reliance on external savings further amplify risks. Still, the swift post-pandemic rebound and recovery from the initial impact of the war in Ukraine and associated sanctions have demonstrated the growing resilience of Georgia’s economy.

Last Updated: Oct 10, 2022

Strategy

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY19–22, supports the Government of Georgia’s vision of developing a market-based economy while ensuring nationwide prosperity and strengthening its regional position. The CPF supports sustainable and inclusive growth across three focus areas: (i) enhancing inclusive growth and competitiveness; (ii) investing in human capital; and (iii) building resilience. Completed in May 2022, the Performance Learning Review adjusted the program to reflect COVID-related developments as well as an increased focus on green, resilient, and inclusive development.  The CPF was extended by one fiscal year and will be completed at the end of FY23.

As of September 30, 2022, the active IBRD lending portfolio amounts to US$1.42 billion across 14 investment projects.  Disbursement stands at US$486 million (33.45 percent). Under the CPF, the portfolio has been rebalanced to include more financing in human development. Forty-five percent of the total commitment addressed challenges in education, health, and social protection, and 36 percent focuses on infrastructure and digital development. Other areas of engagement include irrigation, entrepreneurship and innovation, support to micro-, small-and medium enterprises, as well regional development. 

Two large-scale operations were delivered in FY22: 1) the Human Capital Program for Results (US$400 million) is the first World Bank operation to comprehensively target all three facets of human development: education, health, and social protection; and 2) the Kakheti Connectivity Improvement Project (US$109 million). 

The FY23 lending pipeline includes two projects: the first in a programmatic Development Policy Operation series focused on Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (US$50 million); and the Georgia Resilient Agriculture, Irrigation, and Land Project (US$150 million).   

Each year, the World Bank delivers a robust knowledge program that include advisory and analytics that address a broad range of development challenges - from financial and private sector development, financial inclusion and protection to water and irrigation and strengthening social protection systems.

Key Engagement

In 2022, the World Bank and Georgia commemorated the 30th anniversary of their partnership, which officially commenced on August 7, 1992. Over three decades of close cooperation, the World Bank has played a significant role in the development, growth, and modernization of Georgia’s economy.  

Another major milestone of the partnership is Georgia’s decision to Join the International Development Association (IDA) as a donor, after being an IDA beneficiary for over two decades, which was formalized on September 13, 2022.  

2022 also marked the launch of one of the World Bank’s most critical and transformational projects in Georgia - the Human Capital Program for Results. Approved in March 2022, the US$400 million Human Capital Program is the largest cross-sectorial investment ever extended to Georgia by the World Bank over the 30 years of partnership. The World Bank supports human capital development in Georgia through one other ongoing program - the Innovation, Inclusion, and Quality Project (I2Q), which aims to help Georgia narrow the skills gap between learning outcomes and labor market expectations.

The World Bank continues to support Georgia’s aspiration of becoming a regional transit hub, through the East-West Highway Project co-financing, as well as to play a leadership role in the policy dialogue on the development of the regional digital connectivity corridor. The Government is interested in strengthening its collaboration with the World Bank on energy security and cyber resilience through the potentially transformational Georgia-Romania Undersea Power and Digital Interconnection Project, aimed at allowing for power trade, increased international data traffic between Europe and Asia via the South Caucasus. 

Georgia’s digital transition has been additionally supported through another critical World Bank initiative – the Log-In Georgia Project, which will connect up to 500,000 people residing in over 1,000 villages in the mountainous and remote regions of the country to high-speed affordable broadband internet, granting access to digital financial services, e-commerce, e-government services, remote learning, and telemedicine, proven to be invaluable in the wake of the pandemic.

The World Bank has greatly contributed to the rapid post-pandemic recovery of Georgia’s economy, thought its robust financial and technical support for the country’s COVID-19 response, which enabled the Government to save lives and protect the livelihoods of those impacted by the pandemic, as well as to safeguard Georgia’s businesses and economy.

Last Updated: Oct 10, 2022

Recent Economic Developments

Economic activity has been stronger than expected, with real GDP growth estimated at 10.5 percent (y-o-y) in the first half of 2022. After unemployment increased to 20.6 percent in 2021, labor markets have started to recover, with unemployment decreasing to 18.1 percent in Q2 2022.

After peaking in June, inflation has eased slightly, reaching 10.9 percent (y-o-y) in August. Higher food and energy prices (as well as utility tariffs) account for most of the inflation this year. The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has kept the monetary policy rate unchanged since March, at 11 percent, after gradually increasing the rate since March 2021 by a total of 300 bps. Banking sector indicators remain healthy.

External accounts have been boosted by the recovery in tourism arrivals and a surge in net volume of money transfers (69 percent, y-o-y) driven by inflows from Russia. These comprise both remittances and transfers from non-nationals.  

Tax collection by the central government increased by 33.6 percent (y-o-y) during the first half of 2022, supported by the recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, public expenditures grew by 9.3 percent (y-o-y) in nominal terms during the first half of 2022 (a reduction in real terms). 

Economic Outlook 

Projections have been upgraded on account of the strong performance recorded during 2022, with growth projected to reach 8.8 percent by the end of the year. In the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize around the potential rate (5 percent).

Inflation will remain in double digits in 2022, although price pressures are expected to diminish towards the end of the year and in 2023, as international oil prices and supply-side bottlenecks ease. The long-term fixed-price contracts for gas supply and a shared border with Russia are expected to help offset any commodity price spikes. Monetary policy is expected to remain tight until inflationary pressures subside. 

The fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2022 and, following its temporary suspension in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, the government of Georgia is expected to comply with the fiscal rule by 2023. Public Debt to GDP levels are expected to decline to about 45 percent of GDP in 2023, compared to nearly 60 percent in 2020.  

Risks to this outlook are broadly balanced. On the downside, persistent inflation coupled with the tightening of global financial conditions could impact the lari, potentially affecting macro-financial stability due to the high levels of dollarization. On the upside, money inflows could last longer than initially expected, and Georgia could benefit from some trade diversion as transport corridors are reconfigured. 

Last Updated: Oct 10, 2022