The World Bank in Chad

A Sahelian and landlocked country in Central Africa, Chad faces security challenges related to conflicts in neighboring countries, as well as the consequences of climate change, particularly the acceleration of desertification and the drying up of Lake Chad.

Due to the Sudanese crisis and the continuous arrival of new refugees and returnees, the Chadian government estimates that nearly 900,000 people could arrive in Chad by the end of 2024. Chad was already hosting around 450,000 refugees from Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Nigeria.

Poverty and vulnerability are widespread in Chad, with 44.8% of the population living below the national poverty line in 2022. Extreme poverty ($2.15/day per capita [2017 PPP]) increased by 2.6 percentage points between 2023 and 2024, reaching 36.5%. This increase means that 688,000 additional people have fallen into extreme poverty. Since mid-July, floods resulting from heavy rains have affected more than 1.496 million people (OCHA), destroyed over 259,332 hectares of crops (FAO), and caused the loss of more than 66,728 heads of livestock. This situation is particularly concerning as nearly 2.4 million Chadians were at risk of severe food insecurity in June 2024.

The World Bank’s Human Capital Index for Chad is 0.30, meaning that a child born today will be 70% less productive as an adult compared to a child who has received quality education and proper healthcare. Additionally, one in five Chadian children will not reach the age of five, and 40% suffer from stunted growth, with a risk of long-term consequences on their cognitive development. On average, between the ages of 4 and 18, Chadian children spend only five years in school.

With 856 deaths per 100,000 live births, Chad has one of the highest maternal mortality rates, a phenomenon aggravated by the high number of early pregnancies (164.5 births per 1,000 adolescent girls aged 15 to 19).

The country continues to face significant gender inequalities, the reduction of which is essential in the fight against poverty. Chad ranks 144^th out of 146 countries according to the 2024 Global Gender Gap Index of the World Economic Forum, which assesses gender gaps in various areas, including economic participation, education, health, and political empowerment.

Political Situation

Following the death of President Idriss Déby Itno on April 20, 2021, on the front line, a Transitional Military Council, led by his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, took over. The Constitution was suspended, and an 18-month transition period was established.

The conclusions of the inclusive and sovereign national dialogue held between August and October 2022 extended the political transition by two years. Sworn in as transitional president on October 10, General Mahamat Déby Itno formed a national unity government on October 14.

Following the constitutional referendum of December 27, 2023, a presidential election was held on May 6, 2024, marking a return to constitutional order. At the conclusion of this election, Mahamat Idriss Déby was elected with 61% of the vote, according to the Constitutional Council. Succès Masra, one of the opponents of the Déby family before being appointed Prime Minister, came second with 18.54% of the vote. His party, The Transformers, filed an annulment appeal before the Constitutional Council, which rejected it. Another part of the opposition, including several candidates excluded from the presidential race, called for a boycott of the election.

Senatorial, legislative, and local elections are scheduled for December 2024 to complete the return to constitutional order.

Economic Situation

• A petroleum-producing country since 2003, Chad has become highly dependent on this resource, whereas its economy previously relied on agriculture.
• Despite the tensions caused by the ongoing refugee crisis—which weighs heavily on local resources and increases fiscal pressures—the Chadian economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of 3% in 2024 (-0.1% per capita). Non-oil GDP growth is estimated at 2.7%, down from 4.1% in 2023, due to a slowdown in public investment growth. On the supply side, industry is expected to contribute 1.3 percentage points to growth, supported by a modest increase in oil production, followed by agriculture (1 percentage point), which has been negatively affected by major floods, and services (0.7 percentage points).
• In 2024, GDP growth is expected to be 3.0%. As for non-oil GDP, it is expected to decline from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, due to a decrease in public investment.
• Inflation, after falling to 4.1% in 2023, is expected to rise to 6.5% in 2024, due to rising food and transportation prices. The current account deficit is expected to widen, averaging 2.8% of GDP between 2025 and 2026.
• The outlook is subject to multiple downside risks, including lower-than-expected oil prices, regional instability, increased insecurity, and new climate shocks and natural disasters. Nationally, the incidence of poverty in Chad increased by 2.5 percentage points, from 42.3% in 2018 to 44.8% in 2022. This increase indicates that the poor population grew by 1.2 million, bringing the total to 7.8 million. Poverty remains primarily a rural issue, where one in two people is considered poor. Additionally, there are significant regional disparities in the distribution of poverty. Social inequalities have also slightly increased, as evidenced by the Gini index, which rose from 34 in 2018 to 35 in 2022.
• The 2024 lean season is expected to be one of the worst the country has experienced in recent years. Flood damage and crop losses will lead to a decline in production and household incomes. As a result, the extreme poverty rate is expected to increase by 2 percentage points to 38.4% in 2025, or an additional 588,000 people in extreme poverty.
  

These outlooks are subject to multiple downside risks, including falling oil prices, political instability during the upcoming elections, rising insecurity, and climate shocks, including the severe floods the country is currently facing. A prolonged war in Sudan beyond 2024 would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, strain public finances, and increase inflationary pressures.

Last Updated: Oct 07, 2024

World Bank Action in Chad

The World Bank's action in Chad is guided by a new partnership framework. The Country Engagement Note (CEN) supports the country's second five-year development plan. The CEN implementation period covers 2023-2024.

This new partnership framework was developed in close consultation with Chadian authorities and through broad consultations with the government, civil society, private sector stakeholders, and development partners.

Aligned with the government's objectives outlined in the country's five-year development plan (2022-2027), which focuses on improving governance, increasing production capacity, developing human capital, and reducing inequalities, the CEN was approved by the Executive Directors on November 29, 2022. It aims to:

1. promote peacebuilding and advance decentralization;
2. improve governance and transparency, specifically in debt management, public finances, and oil sector governance;
3. expand access to basic services and infrastructure, particularly in border, peripheral, and conflict-affected areas.

A new national partnership framework for Chad for fiscal year FY25 to FY29 is expected to be submitted to the board for approval during FY2025. The World Bank finances 23 operations through the International Development Association (IDA): 12 national projects with a commitment of $1.49 billion and 11 regional projects totaling $939 million, amounting to a total of $2.51 billion.

On April 28, 2020, to help the government respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank released $16.9 million in emergency funding. The institution also provided support for food security and livelihoods. These interventions are valued at $21.7 million.

Following the food insecurity emergency declaration in June 2022, the World Bank also mobilized $50 million through the crisis response mechanism to:

1.  support agricultural production by providing seeds and small agricultural equipment to farmers;
2. acquire therapeutic foods;
3. screen and treat cases of acute malnutrition (moderate and severe);
4. strengthen health promotion and prevention activities.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank's private sector development arm, has invested in mobile telecommunications (Moov Africa and Airtel), healthcare (Providence Clinic), microfinance, and industries and services. In collaboration with the World Bank, IFC assists the Chadian government in implementing the reforms needed to improve the business climate.

IFC strongly supports the development of agricultural sectors such as cotton and is exploring opportunities to strengthen those of gum arabic, sesame, and livestock. To facilitate market access, in addition to investments in telecommunications, IFC is exploring ways to strengthen the transportation sector. Furthermore, IFC provides advisory services and technical assistance to improve access to financing in Chad.

Last Updated: Oct 07, 2024

Human Capital

By mobilizing all sectors of society, the Women's Empowerment and Demographic Dividend Project in the Sahel aims to enable young girls, adolescent girls, and women living in difficult conditions to thrive and reach their full economic potential by giving them access to quality education and adequate reproductive, maternal, and child health services:

• More than 13,000 vulnerable young girls have received support (school kits, housing, tuition fees, tutoring...);
• In the three regions of Lac, Kanem, and Salamat, the number of girls accessing secondary education has increased by 23%, while the dropout rate has been halved;
• 397 safe school spaces have been created (targeting thousands of adolescent girls);
• 168 women have received training in renewable energy, and 112 others in the operation and maintenance of heavy agricultural machinery.

In the area of social protection, the Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (PARCA) improves refugees' and host communities' access to basic social services, livelihoods, social safety nets, and also strengthens national refugee management systems. In line with its development objective, PARCA, which covers 7 provinces (Ennedi Est, Wadi Fira, Ouaddaï, Lac, Moyen-Chari, Mandoul, and Logone Oriental), has enabled:

• 85,300 beneficiaries, of whom 51% are women and 66% are refugees, to have better access to community structures (with the construction and equipment of 15 schools, 6 health centers, and 2 health posts);
• 96,500 beneficiaries, 97% of whom are women, to benefit from social protection programs (cash transfers and human capital support measures);
• 45,200 households to benefit from adaptive cash transfers during the COVID-19 health crisis and the influx of Cameroonian refugees into Chad;
• 29,200 beneficiaries, organized into village savings and loan associations (VSLAs), to receive training and grants to develop income-generating activities as part of economic inclusion measures.

Last Updated: Oct 07, 2024

The World Bank is an active member of the Committee of Technical and Financial Partners (CPTF), which brings together most of the bilateral and multilateral development and humanitarian organizations present in Chad, with the aim of strengthening the coordination of interventions in the spirit of the Paris Declaration and the Accra and Busan conferences on aid effectiveness.

Last Updated: Oct 07, 2024