A Sahelian and landlocked country in Central Africa, Chad faces security challenges related to conflicts in neighboring countries, as well as the consequences of climate change, particularly the acceleration of desertification and the drying up of Lake Chad.
Due to the Sudanese crisis and the continuous arrival of new refugees and returnees, the Chadian government estimates that nearly 900,000 people could arrive in Chad by the end of 2024. Chad was already hosting around 450,000 refugees from Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Nigeria.
Poverty and vulnerability are widespread in Chad, with 44.8% of the population living below the national poverty line in 2022. Extreme poverty ($2.15/day per capita [2017 PPP]) increased by 2.6 percentage points between 2023 and 2024, reaching 36.5%. This increase means that 688,000 additional people have fallen into extreme poverty. Since mid-July, floods resulting from heavy rains have affected more than 1.496 million people (OCHA), destroyed over 259,332 hectares of crops (FAO), and caused the loss of more than 66,728 heads of livestock. This situation is particularly concerning as nearly 2.4 million Chadians were at risk of severe food insecurity in June 2024.
The World Bank’s Human Capital Index for Chad is 0.30, meaning that a child born today will be 70% less productive as an adult compared to a child who has received quality education and proper healthcare. Additionally, one in five Chadian children will not reach the age of five, and 40% suffer from stunted growth, with a risk of long-term consequences on their cognitive development. On average, between the ages of 4 and 18, Chadian children spend only five years in school.
With 856 deaths per 100,000 live births, Chad has one of the highest maternal mortality rates, a phenomenon aggravated by the high number of early pregnancies (164.5 births per 1,000 adolescent girls aged 15 to 19).
The country continues to face significant gender inequalities, the reduction of which is essential in the fight against poverty. Chad ranks 144th out of 146 countries according to the 2024 Global Gender Gap Index of the World Economic Forum, which assesses gender gaps in various areas, including economic participation, education, health, and political empowerment.
Political Situation
The political transition that began in April 2021 following the death of President Idriss Déby Itno on the frontline ended in March 2025 with the establishment of the Senate, the last institution provided for in the Constitution. Following the constitutional referendum of December 27, 2023, a presidential election was held on May 6, 2024. Following this election, Mahamat Idriss Déby was elected with 61% of the vote, according to the Constitutional Council. Succès Masra, an opponent of Déby father and son before being appointed Prime Minister, came second with 18.54% of the vote. His party, Les Transformateurs, had lodged an appeal for annulment with the Constitutional Council, which rejected it. Another part of the opposition, several of whose candidates had been eliminated from the presidential race, called for a boycott of the elections.
Legislative and local elections were held on December 29, 2024. Boycotted by a large part of the opposition, including Les Transformateurs, these elections were won by a large majority by the ruling Mouvement Patriotique du Salut (MPS).
The restored constitutional order remains largely dominated by President Mahamat Idriss Déby's party, which holds all the levers of power.
Economic Situation
- A petroleum-producing country since 2003, Chad has become highly dependent on this resource, whereas its economy previously relied on agriculture.
- Chad’s economy is estimated to have grown by 3.7% in 2024 (-1.4% per capita), driven mainly by the non-oil sector (+4.6%), while the oil sector growth was modest (+1.4%), reflecting a 4.2% increase in oil production. On the supply side, services are estimated to have contributed 3.0 pp to growth, followed by the non-oil industry with 0.8 pp. Agriculture contributed negatively (-0.2 pp) due to severe floods. Refugee-driven private consumption was the main demand driver, contributing 3.0 pp, followed by public consumption, boosted by spending on wages and elections.
- The food demand pressures led to higher prices, while floods caused food supply shortages. These factors collectively drove inflation to 5.7% in 2024.
- The current account deficit (CAD) is estimated to have risen to 1.8%of GDP in 2024 reflecting increased investment income transferred abroad and a deteriorating goods and services balance.
- The 2024 lean season was one of the worst in recent years. Flood damages and crop losses are expected to lead to a drop in production and household incomes, and as a result, the extreme poverty rate is expected to increase by 1.2 pp to 40.6% in 2025, which translates into an additional 0.5 million people in extreme poverty. Amid continued security restrictions, low social protection coverage, and the ongoing Sudan crisis, extreme poverty is projected to reach 40.9% in 2026.
- Downside risks to the outlook include lower-than-expected oil prices, regional conflicts, and natural catastrophes. The suspension of USAID support may affect external financing and assistance to Sudanese refugees. The proactive implementation of the National Development Plan presents an upside risk to the outlook.
Last Updated: Apr 01, 2025
