The latest issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief projects that oil prices will settle in the range of $53 to $60 by 2020, when supply and demand are expected to be in balance. The report discusses the new normal of low oil prices and what this means for different MENA countries.
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is revised downward to 2.6 % in 2015 and the short term prospects remain “cautiously pessimistic”. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis.
This issue traces the economic effects of the latter development—removing sanctions on Iran—on the world oil market, on Iran’s trading partners, and on the Iranian economy. The most significant change will be Iran’s return to the oil market.
The over-50% decline in world oil prices—from US$115 a barrel in June 2014 to less than US$50 today—will have significant consequences for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen and Libya experienced rapid economic growth during 2000-10, and suffered a sharp economic slowdown in the aftermath of 2011. The brief focuses on the challenges facing these countries with a closer look at the actual growth performance in comparison with their forecasts.
Ongoing regional tensions, together with a challenging external environment, have hit the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region hard. Economic growth is slowing, fiscal buffers are depleting, unemployment is rising, and inflation is mounting.
While the focus has been on the recent change in government in Egypt, five countries in the Middle East and North Africa Region, including Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iran are facing a growth slowdown, rising fiscal deficits and debt, and high unemployment and inflation.
Last Updated: Jul 28, 2016