The Office of the Chief Economist brings together knowledge and expertise across major sectors of development. We seek to produce and feature papers that provides sustainable and innovative solutions for the development challenges, with a focus on East Asian economies and beyond.
2026
The Potential Market for Care in East Asia and Pacific
Nadia Esham, Daniel Zefanya Halim, and Aaditya Mattoo
Maternal work and children's development: A review
Maria C. Lo Bue, Elizaveta Perova, and Sarah Reynolds
Distributional effects of marine conservation on coastal livelihoods in Eastern Indonesia
Duong Trung Le, Gabby N. Ahmadia, Indah Anggriyani Ratih, et al.
Foreign Tariffs as Catalyst for Reform? The Potential Development Dividend
Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo, and J. Signoret
Foreign Demand Shocks and Domestic Value Added: Firm-level Evidence from Viet Nam
Anmol Agarwal, Alessandro Barattieri, and Aaditya Mattoo
The changing structure of global value chains and technological change: evidence from the firm-level patent data
Chiara Criscuolo, Keiko Ito, and Jonathan Timmis
Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Regimes, and the International Transmission of China’s Monetary Policy: Evidence from Cross-Country Firm-Level Data
Yongqin Wang and Haiqin Liu
The Great Transformation of China’s Monetary Policy Framework: The Perspective of Collateral
Yongqin Wang and Haiqin Liu
Who Smooths the Shock? Government and Private Saving in International Risk Sharing
Giorgi Bokhua and Ergys Islamaj
Lost in Interpretation: When Spouses Disagree on Who Makes Decisions
Sundas Liaqat, Aletheia Donald, Forest Brach Jarvis, Elizaveta Perova, and Hillary C. Johnson
When Does Decision-Making Reflect Agency? Evidence from the Rural Philippines
Aries Arugay, Aletheia Donald, Forest Jarvis, Hillary C. Johnson, and Aletheia Valenciano
The Durable Trade Effects of Temporary Export Restrictions
Ergys Islamaj, Shafaat Khan, and Aaditya Mattoo
How Will Changing Eldercare Needs Affect Indonesia's Workforce?
Hillary C. Johnson, Daniel Halim, Forest Jarvis, Emcet Oktay Tas, and Bagus Arya Wirapati
Cyclicality of Social Transfers in Emerging Markets: Did the COVID-19 Recession Signal Graduation to Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy?
Ergys Islamaj and Jacek Rothert
Firm Exit and Suspension in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Household Business Tax Census in Vietnam
Ergys Islamaj, Duong Trung Le, and Thanh Minh Pham
Compliance and Avoidance Under Threshold-Based Financial Reporting Regulation: Decomposing Regulatory Costs and Information Benefits
Yu Cao and Lisa Yao Liu
Expansionary Fiscal Rules under Sovereign Risk
Carlos Esquivel and Agustin Samano
2025
Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Arrangements, and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
Jongrim Ha, Haiqin Liu, and John Rogers
R&D Spillovers through Buyer-supplier Networks
Matěj Bajgar, Keiko Ito, and Jonathan Timmis
The Trilemma, Macroprudential Policy, and Monetary Spillovers
Haiqin Liu
Cloud Computing and Firm Growth
Timothy DeStefano, Richard Kneller, and Jonathan Timmis
Non-Linear Impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance Scores on Deal Premiums
Ralph Sonenshine and Yan Wang
How Does State Ownership Affect Firm Innovation? Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms
Yu Cao and Caroline Betts
Aim High or Play Safe? Commitment, Prosocial Incentives, and Goal Setting
Yu Cao, C. Monica Capra, and Yuxin Su
Future jobs: AI, robots, and jobs in developing countries
Omar Arias, Daisuke Fukuzawa, Duong Trung Le, and Aaditya Mattoo
Decarbonizing Air Transport: Insights from a Quasi-Experiment
Megersa Abera Abate, Alessandro Barattieri, Alberto Brugnoli, and Flavio Porta
Trade Effects of Industrial Policies: Are Preferential Trade Agreements a Shield?
Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo, and Daria Taglioni
Enduring dependence: De minimis, transshipment, and US-China trade
Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta and Karolina Wilczynska
Trade cooperation under geopolitical rivalry
Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta and Karolina Wilczynska
Future jobs: Robots, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms in East Asia and Pacific
Omar Arias, Daisuke Fukuzawa, Duong Trung Le, and Aaditya Mattoo
The Nonlinear Impact of Environmental, Social, Governance on Stock Market Performance Among US Manufacturing and Banking Firms
Yan Wang and Ralph Sonenshine
Policy Interventions and China’s Stock Market in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Steven J. Davis, Dingxiang Liu, Xuguang S. Sheng, and Yan Wang
Intangibles and Industry Concentration: A Cross-Country Analysis
Matěj Bajgar, Chiara Criscuolo, and Jonathan Timmis
Global and Local Uncertainties in Small Open Economies
Haiqin Liu and Shi Qiu
2024
Geopolitics and the World Trading System
Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta and Robert W. Staiger
Online and On Point: How Can We Help Female Entrepreneurs in Indonesia Digitize?
World Bank Group
Health Insurance Coverage Changes under Affordable Care Act among High Housing Cost Households, 2010–18
Yu Cao, Yuxin Su, Guan Wang, and Chengcheng Zhang
Gendered impacts of climate change: evidence from weather shocks
Anna Fruttero, Daniel Halim, Chiara Broccolini, Bernardo Coelho, Horace Gninafon, and Noël Muller
Financial Constraints, Innovation Quality, and Growth
Yu Cao
Supply of and Demand for Accessible and Affordable Childcare Services in Cambodia
World Bank (with contributions from Forest Jarvis and Hillary Johnson)
Technological Decoupling? The Impact on Innovation of US Restrictions on Chinese Firms
Yu Cao, Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo and Jonathan Timmis
Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains?
Carolyn Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta
Long-Term and Lasting Impacts of Personal Initiative Training on Entrepreneurial Success
Francisco Campos, Michael Frese, Leonardo Iacovone, Hillary C. Johnson, David McKenzie, and Mona Mensmann
Do Capital Incentives Distort Technology Diffusion? Evidence on Cloud, Big Data and AI
Timothy DeStefano, Richard Kneller, Neil Johnston, and Jonathan Timmis
Can Public Credit Schemes Improve Access to Finance for Small Businesses? Evidence from Indonesia
Salman Alibhai, Hillary C. Johnson, Cecile Thioro Niang, and Francesco Strobbe
Implications of Heightened Global Uncertainty for the East Asia and Pacific Region
Jongrim Ha, Ergys Islamaj and Aaditya Mattoo
Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature
Da Hoang, Duong Trung Le, Ha Nguyen and Nikola Spatafora
What Have We Learned from EAPGIL Research?
Forest Jarvis and Hillary C. Johnson
When Does Decision-Making Reflect Agency? Evidence from the Rural Philippines
Aries Arugay, Aletheia Donald, Forest Jarvis, Hillary C. Johnson, and Aletheia Valenciano
Industrial automation as a driver of job creation through greater integration into GVCs
Andrés Manuel César, Omar Arias, Daisuke Fukuzawa and Le Duong Trung
Industrial Robots and Export Quality
Timothy DeStefano and Jonathan Timmis
The Sovereign Spread Compressing Effect of Fiscal Rules during Global Crises
Ergys Islamaj, Agustin Samano Penaloza and Scott Sommer
A diverse portfolio of marine protected areas can better advance global conservation and equity
Duong Trung Le, David Gill et al
2023
Do Prosocial Incentives Motivate Women to Set Higher Goals and Improve Performance?
Yu Cao, C. Monica Capra, and Yuxin Su
Sub-Saharan Africa's participation in global value chains: 1995–2021
Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Mancini, Daria Taglioni and Deborah Winkler
The heterogeneous impact of social distancing on household-level economic performances: evidence from a large survey in Vietnam
Dao Le-Van, Daisuke Fukuzawa, and Duong Trung Le
How does state-ownership affect firm innovation? Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms
Yu Cao, Caroline Betts
Can Prosocial Incentives and Self-Chosen Goals Improve Performance? An Online Real Effort Experiment
Yu Cao, C. Monica Capra, and Yuxin Su
Long-Run Economic Consequences of Firm Avoidance in the Threshold Regulation for Financial Reporting
Yu Cao and Lisa Yao Liu
Assessing the Impact of the March 2023 US and Europe Banking Turmoil on East Asia's Financial Sector
Daisuke Fukuzawa, Ergys Islamaj, and Yusha Li
How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Developing East Asian Economies?
Daisuke Fukuzawa, Ergys Islamaj, and Franz Ulrich Ruch
Opening Opportunities: The Economic Cost of Gender Gaps in Entrepreneurship in Indonesia
Salman Alibhai, Aufa Doarest, Jescinta Isimeme Izevbigie, Forest Jarvis, and Hillary C. Johnson
In the Developing World, Covid-19 Was a Job Destruction Shock
Jose Maria Barrero Sanclemente, Francesca De Nicola, Jonathan David Timmis, Jesica Torres Coronado, and Trang Tran Minh Pham
Maternal Work and Children's Development: Examining 20 Years of Evidence
Maria C. Lo Bue, Elizaveta Perova, and Sarah Reynolds
The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020-2022
George Alessandria, Shafaat Yar Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Carter Mix, and Kim J. Ruhl
Are Trade Preferences a Panacea? The Export Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act
Ana Fernandes, Alejandro Forero, Hibret Maemir and Aaditya Mattoo
Global value chains and domestic innovation
Antonin Bergeaud, Chiara Criscuolo, Kenta Ikeuchi, Keiko Ito, Jonathan Timmis
2022
From Food Security to Nutrition Security in the East Asia and Pacific Region
Mateo Ambrosio Albala, David Charles Dawe, Ergys Islamaj, Aaditya Mattoo, Alban Pablo Mas Aparisi, Aka Kyaw Min Maw, and Animesh Shrivastava
Drivers of Public Debt in East Asia and Pacific Economies
Ergys Islamaj and Agustin Samano Penaloza
Dreams and Barriers: Aspirations, Expectations, and Schooling Outcomes of Indonesian Students
Hillary Johnson and Noel Muller
Non-financial Corporates in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Evaluating Liquidity and Solvency Risk
Daisuke Fukuzawa and Ergys Islamaj
Against the Challenges: Stories of Female Entrepreneurs in Cambodia and Vietnam
Pingann Oung and Hillary C. Johnson
The Road Not Taken?: Responding to the Energy Price Shock in East Asia
Hector Ben Politt, Ergys Islamaj, Rahul Kitchlu, Duong Trung Le, and Aaditya Mattoo
Firm Entry, Exit and Suspension: Evidence from Household Businesses in Vietnam
Ergys Islamaj, Duong Trung Le, and Thanh Minh Pham
Learning Losses in Cambodia and the Use of EdTech During COVID-19
World Bank
Caring for Children and Firms? The Impact of Preschool Expansion on Firm Productivity
Massimiliano Cali, Hillary C. Johnson, Elizaveta Perova, and Nabil Rizky Ryandiansyah
Preschool Availability and Women’s Employment: Evidence from Indonesia
Daniel Zefanya Halim, Hillary C. Johnson, and Elizaveta Perova
Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 on Businesses in Columbia: Preliminary Results
Leonardo Iacovone and Jonathan David Timmis
Childcare and Women's Labor Market Outcomes in Lower- and Middle-Income Countries: A Policy Brief
Daniel Zefanya Halim, Elizaveta Perova, and Sarah Reynolds
Conditional Cash Transfers and Gender-Based Violence - Does the Type of Violence Matter?
Ervin Dervisevic, Elizaveta Perova, and Abhilasha Sahay
Temporary Price Controls as a Second-Best Option to Control Sudden Spikes in the Prices of Basic Necessities
Undral Batmunkh and Tobias Pfutze
COVID Vaccinations in East Asia and the Pacific: Situations and Constraints
Young Eun Kim, Tonny Brian Mungai Muthee, and Aneesa Arur
Global Transition Online
Alexandros Ragoussis and Jonathan David Timmis
Breaking Barriers: Female Entrepreneurs Who Cross Over to Male-Dominated Sectors
Naira Kalra, Markus P. Goldstein, Maria Emilia Cucagna, Fannie Delavelle, Leonardo Iacovone, Hillary C. Johnson, Paula Lorena Gonzalez Martinez, Eliana Carolina Rubiano Matulevich, Elizaveta Perova, Rachael Susan Pierotti, Gareth Arthur Roberts, and Jose Daniel Trujillo
2021
Lost in Interpretation: Why Spouses Disagree on Who Makes Decisions
Sundas Liaqat, Aletheia Amalia Donald, Forest Brach Jarvis, Elizaveta Perova, and Hillary C. Johnson
Inequality Under Covid-19: Taking Stock of High-Frequency Data for East Asia and the Pacific
Lydia Y. Kim, Maria Ana Lugo, Andrew D. Mason, and Ikuko Uochi
What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing
Ergys Islamaj and Ayhan Kose
International Reserves and Central Bank Independence
Agustin Samano Penaloza
Childcare and Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes in Lower- and Middle-Income Countries
Daniel Zefanya Halim, Elizaveta Perova, and Sarah Reynolds
How Financial Market Development Can Encourage Innovation Activity
Yu Cao
Managing Long Covid in East Asia and the Pacific
Aneesa Arur, Ergys Islamaj, Young Eun Kim, Duong Trung Le, Aaditya Mattoo, and Aparnaa Somanathan
The Role of Existing Social Protection Programs in Alleviating Poverty Caused by Large-Scale Negative Shocks
Tobias Pfutze
Trade-Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade
George Alessandria, Shafaat Yar Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Kim J. Ruhl, and Joseph B. Steinberg
Agglomeration Economies in Developing Countries: A Meta-Analysis
Arti Goswami Grover, Somik V. Lall, and Jonathan David Timmis
Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains
Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, and Michele Ruta
Lives versus Livelihoods During the COVID-19 Pandemic: How Testing Softens the Trade-Off
Ergys Islamaj, Duong Trung Le, and Aaditya Mattoo
Public Work Programs and Gender-Based Violence: Evidence from LAO PDR
Elizaveta Perova, Erik Caldwell Johnson, Aneesh Mannava, Sarah Anne Reynolds, and Alana Hinda Teman
Robots and Export Quality
Timothy DeStefano and Jonathan David Timmis
Demand and Supply Dynamics in East-Asia during the Covid-19 Recession
Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze
How Does Trade Respond to Anticipated Tariff Changes: Evidence from NAFTA
Shafaat Yar Khan and Armen Khederlarian
How to Better Capture Women's Agency Through Decision-Making Measures: Five tips from Research in the Philippines
Forest Brach Jarvis, Hillary C. Johnson, and Elizaveta Perova
Productivity in the Time of Covid-19: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific
Francesca De Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo, Jonathan David Timmis, and Trang Thu Tran
Long-Term Impacts of Short Exposure to Conditional Cash Transfers in Adolescence: Evidence from the Philippines
Erin Dervisevic, Elizaveta Perova and Abhilasha Sahay
Inventories, Input Costs and Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalizations
Shafaat Yar Khan and Armen Khederlarian
Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From China's Pre-WTO Accession
George Alessandria, Shafaat Yar Khan, and Armen Khederlarian
Pandemic Trade: Covid-19, Remote Work and Global Value Chains
Álvaro Raúl Espitia Rueda, Aaditya Mattoo, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, and Deborah Elisabeth Winkler
What Factors Exacerbate and Mitigate the Risk of Gender-Based Violence During COVID-19?: Insights from a Phone Survey in Indonesia
Daniel Zefanya Halim, England Rhys Can, and Elizaveta Perova
The Spread of COVID-19 and Policy Responses
Ergys Islamaj, Young Eun Kim, and Duong Trung Le
2020
Can We Capture Exposure to Gender-Based Violence (GBV) through Phone Surveys during a Pandemic
Elizaveta Perova, Forest Brach Jarvis, Diana Jimena Arango, and Amber Peterman
Exploring the Potential of Gender Parity to Promote Economic Growth
Sharmila Devadas and Young Eun Kim
Small and Medium Enterprises in the Pandemic: Impact, Responses and the Role of Development Finance
Ikmal Adian, Djeneba Doumbia, Neil Gregory, Alexandros Ragoussis, Aarti Reddy, and Jonathan David Timmis
Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements
Aaditya Mattoo, Nadia Patrizia Rocha Gaffurri, and Michele Ruta
Land Rights in Transition: Preliminary Experimental Evidence on How Changes in Formal Tenure Affect Agricultural Outcomes, Perceptions, and Decision-Making in the Philippines
Rosa Castro-Zarzur, Prudenciano Uljer Gordoncillo, Snaebjorn Gunnsteinsson, Forest Brach Jarvis, Hillary C. Johnson, Elizaveta Perova, and Peter Gabriel Srouji
The Evolution of Deep Trade Agreements
Aaditya Mattoo, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta
Malaysia's Economic Growth and Transition to High Income: An Application of the World Bank Long Term Grwoth Model (LTGM)
Sharmila Devadas, Jorge P. Guzman, Young Eun Kim, Norman V. Loayza, and Steven Michael Pennings
Can Teaching Growth Mindset and Self-Management at School Shift Student Outcomes and Teacher Mindsets? Evidence From a Randomized Controlled Trial in Indonesia
Hillary C. Johnson, Daniel Pinzon Hernandez, Kali Trzesnieuwski James, Taufik Indrakesuma, Renos Ramadhan Vakis, Elizaveta Perova, Noel Muller, Samantha Ashley De Martino and Diego Catalan Molina
Who Benefits from Better Roads and Why Mixed Methods Analysis of the Gender-Disaggregated Impacts of a Rural Roads Project in Vietnam
Aneesh Mannava, Elizaveta Perova, and Phuong Thi Minh Tran
The Possible Impact of Covid-19 on GDP and Trade: A Preliminary Assesment
Maryla Maliszewska, Aaditya Mattoo, and Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe
Can Boosting Savings and Skills Support Female Business Owners in Indonesia: Evidence From a Randomized Controlled Trial
Mayra Lourdes Buvinic, Hillary C. Johnson, Elizaveta Perova, and Firman Witoelar
When Elephants Make Peace: The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement on Developing Countries
Caroline Freund, Maryla Maliszewska, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta
2019
How Technology Adoption and Trade Are Shaping Indonesian Labor Markets
Mariana Viollaz, Francis Addeah Darko, and Andrew D. Mason
2018
Women Farmers in Timor-Leste: Bridging the Gender Gap in Agricultural Productivity
Elizaveta Perova and Sunita Caminha
Gender Gap in Earnings in Vietnam: Why Do Vietnamese Women Work in Lower Paid Occupations
Iffat Ara Chowdhury, Hillary C. Johnson, Aneesh Mannava, and Elizaveta Perova
Gender Streaming in Vietnam
Iffat Ara Chowdhury, Hillary C. Johnson, Aneesh Mannava, and Elizaveta Perova
