Global Migration in the 21st Century: Navigating the Impact of Climate Change, Conflict, and Demographic Shifts

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00:01 OK,

00:01 I think we can probably get started.

00:04 Thank you everybody for joining us today.

00:06 Uh,

00:07 a few people will probably still trickle in,

00:08 but that's OK.

00:09 They,

00:10 they'll just miss me and that's

00:11 not the highlight of the,

00:13 of,

00:13 of the event.

00:14 Um,

00:15 so welcome everyone to this,

00:16 uh,

00:17 June edition of our policy research talk series.

00:19 Um,

00:20 as many of you know,

00:20 these provide,

00:21 um,

00:22 an opportunity for us in the Development Research

00:24 group to share research that's coming out of,

00:26 of the,

00:27 the,

00:28 the group,

00:29 uh,

00:29 with

00:30 Colleagues,

00:31 frankly inside the Development Research Group,

00:33 outside uh in the rest of the bank and beyond.

00:36 Um,

00:37 so it's a very,

00:38 uh very important event for us.

00:41 Um,

00:42 I also want to,

00:43 uh,

00:43 welcome the audience on Webex and YouTube,

00:46 um,

00:47 and especially those of you who were able to make it here today in person.

00:51 Um,

00:52 today,

00:52 I'm pleased to introduce my colleagues,

00:54 Tuan Do and Chala uh Osden,

00:57 two of the co-directors of this year's World Development Report,

01:02 uh,

01:02 which has the title,

01:03 as you can see on the screen,

01:05 Migrants,

01:05 Refugees and Societies.

01:08 Uh,

01:08 Tuan is a lead economist in the development research group who focuses on

01:12 topics related to fragility,

01:14 conflict,

01:14 and violence,

01:15 um,

01:16 with a,

01:16 with an emphasis on,

01:18 uh,

01:18 conflict crime and forced displacement.

01:21 Chala is uh also a lead economist in the development research group,

01:24 uh,

01:25 who focuses on the nexus of globalization of products and labor markets.

01:30 Um,

01:31 this edition of the WDR comes at a crucial time as the world struggles to cope with

01:37 global economic imbalances,

01:39 diverging demographic trends,

01:40 and climate change.

01:42 Migration will become

01:43 a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income.

01:48 The WDR proposes an integrated framework to maximize the development

01:52 impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries

01:55 and on migrants and refugees themselves.

01:59 I'm especially happy to welcome our two discussants today,

02:03 uh,

02:03 Michael Clemens and

02:05 Ifa Sharif.

02:06 Michael is a professor in the Development

02:09 Department of Economics at George Mason University

02:12 and a non-resident senior fellow at

02:14 the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

02:18 I got that right.

02:21 IAT uh is a manager of the Human Capital Project.

02:25 And the incoming global director.

02:28 Incoming meaning as of tomorrow.

02:30 For,

02:31 uh,

02:32 uh,

02:32 for the

02:33 social protection and jobs global practice.

02:36 Um

02:39 I'll start by asking Tuan and Chala to talk for approximately 40 minutes

02:43 together,

02:44 after which we'll hear from Michael and Ifa for approximately 5 to 10 minutes each.

02:49 Uh,

02:49 we'll conclude the session with Q&A from the audience.

02:52 Um,

02:52 if you have a question,

02:54 if you're following online,

02:54 if you have a question,

02:55 please raise your hand in the,

02:57 in the,

02:57 in,

02:58 and,

02:58 uh,

02:59 or signal to me in the chat that you have a question and I'll call on you.

03:03 If you're following on YouTube,

03:04 please,

03:05 uh,

03:05 put,

03:05 put your submit your question in the chat and that'll get rela relayed to me.

03:10 Um,

03:10 also a reminder to everybody,

03:12 we are recording the session.

03:14 Uh,

03:14 if you're following online,

03:15 please mute,

03:16 uh,

03:16 when you're not speaking.

03:17 So with that and without any further ado,

03:19 over to you,

03:20 Tuan.

03:21 Uh,

03:21 thank you very much,

03:22 Dion,

03:22 and,

03:23 uh,

03:23 welcome everybody.

03:25 Uh,

03:25 I'd like to thank you on behalf of,

03:27 of the entire team to,

03:28 uh,

03:29 to come and listen to us.

03:31 I think we're in the midst of dissemination,

03:33 um,

03:34 between,

03:35 uh,

03:35 Charles Xavier,

03:36 who is the other

03:38 co-director,

03:38 and Joyce.

03:39 We've been covering

03:40 roughly 30 to 40 countries by now,

03:43 and we still have

03:45 a long list to go.

03:46 So what I'd like to do today.

03:48 Uh,

03:48 is to go over basically what we are,

03:50 what we are presenting during our dissemination,

03:52 but since it's a policy research talk

03:54 and we're talking for 40 minutes and not just 10 or 12 minutes,

03:57 go a little bit,

03:58 a bit deeper into,

03:59 uh,

04:00 the economics of,

04:01 of,

04:02 of the report and,

04:03 and the evidence and so on and so forth,

04:05 so I will.

04:06 Uh,

04:06 I will come.

04:07 I will,

04:07 I will cover the more theoretical part of it,

04:09 and,

04:09 and Shara will

04:10 discuss what the empirics of

04:12 what we have in the report and what are the,

04:15 the,

04:15 the gaps that need to be filled,

04:17 uh,

04:18 in the future.

04:20 So,

04:20 before moving forward,

04:22 I'd like to acknowledge that this is the work of a big team,

04:25 and,

04:25 and some of them are here,

04:26 uh,

04:26 in the room,

04:28 uh,

04:28 as I mentioned,

04:28 Xavier de Victor in the SC Group was the co-director of this,

04:32 the 3rd.

04:33 Uh,

04:33 person and people from across the,

04:36 the,

04:36 the bank,

04:37 uh,

04:38 from the different regions and different practices from SPG poverty.

04:42 Uh,

04:43 and the climate group,

04:44 uh,

04:45 and,

04:45 and so on and so forth,

04:47 um,

04:47 I'd like to thank,

04:49 you know,

04:49 Art,

04:49 who is also in this room who has been,

04:51 uh,

04:52 uh,

04:52 working with us to make sure,

04:54 uh,

04:55 the,

04:55 the,

04:55 the process runs smoothly and,

04:57 and,

04:58 and,

04:58 uh,

04:58 the messaging and the discussion within,

05:01 within the bank also run as smoothly

05:03 as possible.

05:05 We were assisted by 22 panels,

05:07 and an academic panel,

05:08 uh,

05:10 and Michael here was,

05:11 was part of that panel

05:13 and a high level advisory panel.

05:16 Consisting of uh uh officials in in uh

05:20 in uh

05:22 different countries but also representative of the UNHCR.

05:26 IOM,

05:26 ILO and civil society.

05:29 So that's the,

05:30 the,

05:30 the outcome of almost 18 months of work that,

05:34 that,

05:34 uh,

05:34 I,

05:35 I have the pleasure to

05:37 present to you today.

05:38 So I'm going to go straight into the meat of,

05:40 of the discussion.

05:42 I think that the report has one aspect

05:44 which is bringing stylized facts like any paper.

05:46 I have stylized facts.

05:47 What do we know?

05:48 What are the numbers.

05:49 And then takes a little bit of a uh a

05:51 prospective view about what do we think migration will look like

05:55 tomorrow

05:56 before we get into what's the evidence,

05:58 what are the policies,

05:59 and so on and so forth.

06:01 So if we define a migrant

06:03 as a person who doesn't have the citizenship of the countries they reside in

06:08 and for those who who work in this space,

06:11 you will notice that this is a definition that is not often

06:14 uh used otherwise

06:16 we're talking about 184 million migrants and refugees across the world,

06:20 which is roughly 22.5%

06:24 of the world population.

06:25 So on the left you have this distribution

06:27 of.

06:28 Migrants,

06:29 where they are coming from and when they are going.

06:33 And I'd like you to take,

06:35 uh,

06:35 3

06:36 main messages out of this slide.

06:39 One is migration is not just a south to north phenomenon.

06:42 There's a big chunk of it

06:44 that is south to south migration.

06:47 So

06:48 outlying countries,

06:49 developing countries,

06:50 middle income countries are also countries

06:52 that are,

06:53 uh,

06:53 destination countries for,

06:55 uh,

06:55 uh,

06:55 a large part of the migrants.

06:58 Especially when we talk about forced displacement,

07:00 3/4 are forcibly displaced

07:02 or in low income or middle income countries.

07:06 That's 0.1 and 2.

07:07 And the second point that I'd like to highlight

07:10 is there's no such thing as a sending country

07:12 and origin sending origin country and a destination country,

07:16 but a lot of countries,

07:17 or most countries of both of those.

07:19 They receive migrants and they send migrants.

07:22 Migrants are emigrating and some migrants are immigrating in those countries,

07:26 indicating that the issues of,

07:27 of migration policy,

07:29 uh,

07:30 becomes much more,

07:31 uh,

07:31 uh,

07:32 intricated when,

07:32 when we think about,

07:34 uh,

07:35 migration as a whole,

07:36 whether it's the UK,

07:37 whether it's Turkey,

07:38 whether it's Nigeria,

07:39 they have significant amount of people who are coming into that territory

07:43 and leave that territory.

07:45 So first,

07:46 uh,

07:46 uh,

07:46 slide that that is summarizing quickly.

07:49 The,

07:49 uh,

07:50 the,

07:50 the,

07:51 the state of,

07:51 of,

07:52 of affairs.

07:53 A second point that we're moving

07:55 forward to is what do we think about

07:57 migration tomorrow.

07:58 So we wanted to point out what are the key factors

08:01 that are going are likely to reshape or shape

08:05 the trends in migration for tomorrow,

08:06 and we identified two of those factors,

08:09 one being demography

08:10 and the second one being climate change.

08:13 So when we look at demography and here you have

08:15 the the age pyramids of three types of countries,

08:18 on the top row you have

08:20 the typical high income countries,

08:21 Italy being given as an example.

08:24 In the middle row,

08:25 a middle income country,

08:26 high middle income country,

08:27 middle income country,

08:29 and here we are giving you Mexico as an example,

08:31 and at the top,

08:32 a low and lower middle income countries such as Nigeria.

08:36 The left column is the H pyramid

08:38 in 1950.

08:40 The middle column,

08:41 the H pyramid today,

08:42 and

08:43 the

08:44 the right column being

08:45 the H pyramid

08:47 in 2050.

08:48 So just a small remark

08:50 in terms of we are projecting only in 2050

08:53 because the actors of the demography of tomorrow,

08:56 most of them are born today,

08:57 which allows us to give quite confidence in terms of

09:01 what we think about the demography of tomorrow.

09:03 So just a little bit of interpretation,

09:05 Italy is aging quite fast,

09:07 and we have what demographers call the inversion of their age pyramid,

09:11 where the top is larger

09:12 than the base.

09:14 And to give you some numbers around this,

09:15 the population of Italy,

09:16 if it's 60 million today,

09:18 will turn 30 million

09:20 at the end of the century.

09:22 If you look at South Korea,

09:23 1 adult out of 61 person out of 6

09:27 is aged

09:28 80 and above,

09:30 which gives you the sense of not only

09:32 there will be

09:34 an aging population,

09:35 which means fewer workers relative to population,

09:38 but there's also a change in the demand

09:41 given that the size of the elderly population is going

09:45 to increase.

09:47 In between,

09:48 if you look at most middle income countries,

09:51 they have engaged,

09:52 they have entered already their demographic transition,

09:54 and they're doing it at a very high pace,

09:57 so they're

09:57 coming from a very young country into aging country and this.

10:01 Uh,

10:02 quite quickly,

10:02 as the example of Mexico shows,

10:04 and the challenge for those countries is not only will they start

10:07 to become increasingly

10:09 moving from sending countries,

10:11 but they're also

10:12 going to

10:13 receive

10:14 migrants

10:15 in the near future.

10:16 That is going to be the challenge of countries that sees themselves

10:19 as immigration countries as

10:22 how to manage the fact that they are increasingly

10:24 going to become

10:26 receiving countries.

10:27 The challenge is how do they become

10:29 rich.

10:30 Before they become

10:32 old.

10:34 Finally,

10:34 in the bottom countries are countries typical of,

10:37 uh,

10:38 that have a typical exploding population that are going to remain young

10:42 uh

10:42 through the middle of the century,

10:44 including Nigeria,

10:45 uh,

10:45 ***,

10:46 Afghanistan,

10:47 Somalia are,

10:48 are examples of those.

10:49 So one demography is going to reshape

10:52 global labor markets,

10:53 and I think that is going to be one of the big.

10:55 Uh,

10:56 uh,

10:57 uh,

10:57 issue that we want to look into is how can we

11:00 today,

11:00 before the global labor markets change dramatically,

11:03 what can we do today in order to prepare

11:06 for that,

11:06 uh,

11:07 uh,

11:07 reshuffling of global labor markets.

11:10 Climate change being the,

11:11 the,

11:11 the other part which is going to exacerbate

11:14 the existing trends,

11:16 the effect of climate change goes through declining incomes,

11:19 declining labor productivity,

11:20 and especially,

11:21 uh,

11:22 in rural areas,

11:23 but it will also going to be a threat

11:25 to the habitability of places.

11:26 So if today.

11:28 uh,

11:29 we have most of the evidence on on displacement is at short distances,

11:34 meaning within countries or

11:36 in neighboring countries.

11:37 What will happen

11:38 tomorrow is going still to be,

11:40 um,

11:40 uh,

11:41 in terms of transborder movement,

11:43 still a question mark.

11:43 It will depend on

11:45 the collective ability

11:47 of the world

11:48 to mitigate the effect of climate change,

11:50 the incidence of climate change.

11:52 Second,

11:53 individual ability of countries to adapt

11:55 to climate change,

11:56 in particular.

11:58 How adaptation to decrease labor productivity,

12:01 how adaptation,

12:02 how cities are going to be adapt to,

12:04 to be able to adapt to an increased

12:06 rural to urban migration.

12:08 And third,

12:10 cross-border movements will be regulated and so how the world adapts as a whole

12:14 to the increased incidence of labor movement.

12:16 These are the,

12:17 the,

12:17 the question marks that,

12:18 uh,

12:19 uh,

12:19 we would like to raise in order to,

12:21 to see what,

12:22 uh,

12:23 climate change is going to bring

12:24 in terms of cross-border migration.

12:27 So just give you the the the some statized facts,

12:30 some,

12:30 some,

12:31 some data and,

12:32 and,

12:32 and trends to give you the context,

12:34 and the next step that I'd like to talk to is

12:38 what we believe is uh

12:39 uh a decision tool,

12:40 an ethical framework that allows us to understand that all migration

12:45 does not need to be,

12:46 doesn't have to be seen as the same phenomenon.

12:49 The objectives are different.

12:51 The policy trade-offs are different and hence

12:54 the policies are different and that's what we coined

12:57 after a lot of discussion,

12:59 uh,

12:59 the match and motive

13:01 metrics.

13:02 You will,

13:03 you will notice the alliteration here.

13:06 So first,

13:08 what we want to combine is

13:09 is combining two different views of

13:12 of migration.

13:13 The 1st 11 is an economic perspective

13:16 which is driven by a cost-benefit analysis when

13:18 we take the view of the destination countries

13:21 is

13:22 the labor contribution larger than integration costs in a sense,

13:26 very cost benefit from from the viewpoint of the receiving countries.

13:30 And if we look at what it means

13:32 from an economic standpoint is we want to realize

13:35 that there are imperfect labor markets in destination countries,

13:38 that

13:39 there are distributional implications for migration.

13:42 That there are integration costs that not internalized when we look at wages,

13:46 uh,

13:46 on,

13:47 uh,

13:47 prevailing market wages,

13:49 and there's also misallocation of,

13:51 of,

13:51 of,

13:51 uh,

13:52 of factors

13:53 and therefore we can think of migration policies enacted by destination countries

13:58 as one tool

13:59 to regulate an imperfect

14:02 international labor markets.

14:03 So why don't we open borders because

14:06 markets are not perfect because there are

14:08 distribution implications because of integration costs.

14:11 So one perspective is the rationale for uh

14:14 uh migration policy is

14:16 uh the realization that uh free movement of,

14:20 of labor

14:22 has issues related to imperfect

14:24 labor markets.

14:27 The second angle that we want to bring in is

14:30 one of international law.

14:31 It has been recognized since

14:33 the end of World War II that

14:36 some people need international protection.

14:38 This is a refugee convention of 1951

14:41 where if someone moves out of a legitimate fear for their physical integrity,

14:46 there is a duty for countries

14:48 to host them.

14:51 And the international protection is targeted at

14:53 those people with legitimate fear of origin,

14:55 and they are

14:57 designated as refugees

14:59 and in order to provide

15:01 because this has a

15:03 global public good component to it,

15:06 there is a fundamental collective action problem in

15:08 terms of provision of that public good.

15:11 And hence the architecture of the convention has

15:14 two clauses,

15:15 which is non-refoulement,

15:16 which is a country that has a refugee will not send the refu

15:19 refugee back to the country of origin if they have a fear

15:23 of persecution or fear of violence,

15:25 and at the same time will not penalize

15:28 illegal entry for that same reason.

15:31 So those two views,

15:32 one which is an economic maximization exercise,

15:35 economic,

15:36 broadly speaking,

15:36 maximization exercise,

15:38 and one driven by international law,

15:41 responsibility of providing intersection gives

15:43 the two rationales for migration that we bring into

15:47 the same framework that we coined

15:49 the match and motive matrix.

15:51 So if you look at the the vertical axis,

15:54 the vertical axis

15:56 that indicates the strength of the match

15:58 for the migrants vis a vis the destination country,

16:02 and the horizontal axis captures

16:04 the motive,

16:05 meaning what is the scope for international protection,

16:08 whether

16:09 the the the movement is driven by fear at the country of origin

16:13 or more

16:15 towards looking for opportunities

16:18 at destination.

16:19 And so that matrix defines more or less 4,

16:24 more or less

16:24 exactly

16:26 4 quadrants

16:27 that

16:28 not only describes different types of movements but

16:30 those different types of movements call for different

16:34 policy trade-offs for destination countries

16:36 and for different.

16:38 Policies,

16:39 so you have on the top most of the refugees go because there's a strong match

16:43 on the labor market and little

16:46 uh fear at the origin.

16:48 On the other extreme,

16:49 the bottom right quadrants of most of many refugees that

16:53 leave due to the fear at origin.

16:56 But have little

16:57 uh contribution to be brought on the labor market.

17:00 On the other extreme,

17:01 on the other hand,

17:02 on the top right are the refugees that have productive productive skills

17:08 to be put to use,

17:09 and the bottom left are what we call the distressed migrants

17:13 who do not qualify for international protection

17:16 but at the same time have digital skills to bring

17:19 to the society of

17:21 destination

17:22 and 4 categories

17:24 4 per objective function.

17:26 For policy trade-offs,

17:28 for policies to address those issues.

17:32 So when the match is strong,

17:34 which is basically when the labor contribution,

17:37 the case is maximizing.

17:40 The gains for all and how do we do that

17:41 and what is the main message we want to convey here

17:45 is that if there are

17:46 labor market imperfections

17:49 is use alternative instruments in order to address

17:53 those

17:53 uh

17:54 uh downsides of migration.

17:56 Don't use migration as a sole policy instrument

17:59 to regulate

18:00 those issues,

18:02 in particular,

18:02 if you look at countries of the of origin

18:06 that you have on the green and small font.

18:08 But the idea is to lower transaction costs whether it's about sending

18:12 remittances back,

18:13 whether it's

18:14 having knowledge pillowers back home,

18:17 or address other labor market imperfections.

18:19 When we talk about brain drain,

18:20 it's about

18:21 the labor market infection

18:23 associated with skill

18:25 complementarity.

18:28 On the other hand,

18:29 when we look at country of destination,

18:31 it's,

18:31 oh sorry.

18:33 It's all about improving

18:35 labor market efficiency.

18:37 It's about providing rights

18:39 and access to labor markets so that

18:41 the productivity is associated is put

18:44 uh to fruition

18:46 but also facilitate inclusion to fight discrimination

18:49 and because there are potential

18:51 uh distribution implications.

18:54 Support the affected nationals

18:57 that

18:57 on the labor markets could be displaced

18:59 by uh migrant labor,

19:01 although empirically let me emphasize here again

19:03 the evidence that there is a large effect on wages unemployment are very scant

19:08 and and very specific to uh uh

19:11 uh some type of movements.

19:15 When the,

19:16 the match is weaker but is driven by fear,

19:19 the issue is not anymore a matter of maximizing any efficiency,

19:23 any efficiency,

19:24 but to ensure

19:26 the sustainability of the system

19:28 and share the cost.

19:30 Once again,

19:30 there is a public good component to it.

19:32 Public good means that there is also a shared responsibility,

19:35 and how can we design mechanisms to share the costs becomes

19:39 the first order

19:40 issue.

19:42 So in order to reduce the cost,

19:44 one realization is once a refugee.

19:47 Is given protection.

19:50 They become an agent of development

19:52 and therefore a way not only to bring the dignity to bring the

19:56 the to satisfy the aspiration

19:58 of the refugees,

20:00 increasing the productivity is also a way

20:02 to lower the cost.

20:04 The example that that we often cite is

20:06 an example for Colombia and the policies toward Venezuelan

20:09 refugees is to give access very quickly to labor market

20:13 to allow mobility within the country

20:15 and to integrate social services into.

20:18 Their national

20:19 services.

20:20 So here the red arrow

20:22 shows that there is

20:24 endogeneity.

20:24 There is possibility for policies

20:26 to increase

20:28 the match of refugees toward the labor market,

20:31 and you can see it.

20:32 The obvious way to to think about this is

20:35 language training that is given to

20:37 a lot of refugees in many settings so that

20:40 they can integrate better

20:41 not only in labor markets but in society.

20:44 In general.

20:47 And then the last category that I'd like to focus on is

20:50 when the category of distressed migrants where the main policy objective is.

20:55 To reduce the need for such movements

20:58 or to and to absorb or return

21:01 the migrants humanely.

21:05 And so 11 thing that we want to,

21:08 uh,

21:08 one aspect we want to think about is first,

21:10 as I mentioned before,

21:12 the refugee status we,

21:14 we can think of and,

21:15 and since IAT is here,

21:17 we can think of as as as a targeting mechanism

21:20 is people in need for international protection.

21:22 We define refugees

21:24 as people fearing for violence and conflict at home,

21:28 and as in any targeting mechanism,

21:30 there are some

21:31 false negatives.

21:33 So to speak,

21:33 and the idea is for some of them

21:35 there's a scope for extending

21:37 protection.

21:39 And extending protection

21:41 is,

21:41 for example,

21:42 the case of the US extending granting temporary protection

21:46 to Haitians,

21:47 for example.

21:48 So recognizing that they do not fit in the category of refugees,

21:52 but the need for international protection still persists

21:55 and the need to find additional instruments

21:58 to

21:59 provide the needed

22:00 protection.

22:02 And on the on the other hand,

22:05 realizing that as I mentioned before

22:08 market forces might be too strong,

22:10 then the policy space under which we are

22:13 is how do we change the incentives

22:16 to migrate

22:17 at origin is providing alternative

22:21 to

22:22 alternative to migration

22:23 by strengthening the skills of providing.

22:26 Uh,

22:26 increasing the resilience of populations to shocks

22:29 to climate change so that transborder migration doesn't

22:33 doesn't end up being the only solution

22:36 towards,

22:36 uh,

22:36 uh,

22:37 adaptation to the changing environment

22:39 and that destination,

22:41 the,

22:41 the,

22:41 the substitution is not only,

22:43 uh,

22:44 between

22:45 migrating and migrating,

22:46 but it's also what

22:47 pathways to choose.

22:49 So

22:49 increasing the number of legal pathways as a substitutes

22:53 towards disorderly migration,

22:55 disorderly.

22:56 Irregular migration.

22:57 So here the idea is

22:59 those policies are likely also by selection

23:02 increase

23:03 the match,

23:04 increase the,

23:05 the,

23:06 the,

23:06 the match of the,

23:07 the,

23:07 the ones that will end up

23:09 migrating.

23:10 So here you have it if you want the,

23:12 the theoretical framework that is guiding the entire.

23:15 Discussion we have in the report

23:17 and that leads us to the key messages.

23:19 I'm not going to spend too much time because Chala is going to,

23:21 to,

23:21 to go over them

23:23 with much more uh empirical uh substance,

23:26 but basically about first highlighting that migration is necessary

23:30 not only for

23:31 as viewed by

23:32 developing low income and middle income countries

23:35 but for all countries

23:37 at all levels of income.

23:39 And then

23:40 depending on where you where you stand on that match and motive metrics,

23:44 the trade-offs are different,

23:46 the messages are different,

23:48 and

23:48 the policy instruments are different,

23:51 involving

23:52 bilateral cooperation,

23:53 international cooperation.

23:55 I'll,

23:56 uh,

23:56 so I'll,

23:57 I'll leave this here while we're doing the transition,

23:59 but Chala will have ample opportunity

24:01 to,

24:02 uh,

24:02 get back to those.

24:07 Thank you,

24:07 Joan.

24:08 I think this is OK,

24:09 working.

24:10 Now,

24:10 uh,

24:11 two things.

24:12 I want to also express my thanks to everybody,

24:14 uh,

24:14 in this room

24:15 who,

24:16 um,

24:16 the,

24:16 the most impressive part of the WDR for me.

24:19 was

24:20 literally

24:21 it shows the best of the bank.

24:23 Hundreds of people touched

24:24 the WDR in the process,

24:26 whether they are direct chapter authors or discussions,

24:29 critics,

24:30 the people,

24:31 editors who did a lot of work because you have 3 non-native speakers

24:34 writing this,

24:36 so I greatly appreciate all of that.

24:39 Now

24:39 what I want to do

24:41 is the following.

24:42 The,

24:43 the framework you saw,

24:44 it might come out simple and smooth,

24:46 but it was actually,

24:48 you know,

24:48 the example they give of the sausages.

24:51 You don't want to ask how it was

24:52 created.

24:54 And there was a lot of discussion

24:56 uh

24:57 in the background within the team.

24:58 Unfortunately,

24:59 RTA

25:00 was exposed to a lot of it,

25:02 and,

25:02 uh,

25:03 but the other important impressive thing to me about the WEDR and

25:07 a lot of the credit goes to Tan on this,

25:09 there are 120 pages of references,

25:11 right?

25:12 We

25:13 cited the heck out of everything we say in the report.

25:16 Uh,

25:16 so what I'm going to talk about now is actually

25:19 The framework you saw,

25:20 what is the empirical evidence that supports this framework,

25:24 but also,

25:24 since this is a policy research talk,

25:26 what the gaps are,

25:28 what we do not know,

25:30 uh,

25:30 which goes against when we did our media training,

25:32 admitting

25:34 what you don't know to an audience,

25:35 but anyway,

25:36 here it is,

25:37 so.

25:38 The first thing,

25:39 as Toan mentioned,

25:40 184 million migrants,

25:42 and we define it based on citizenship.

25:44 This

25:44 actually goes counter to a lot of other data sets,

25:47 including the stuff we have done in the bank,

25:49 because it's based on

25:50 place of birth.

25:52 The reason for place of birth is actually the ease of data.

25:54 That's how the data are collected and disseminated by

25:57 a lot of agencies and the OECD UN,

26:00 so on and so forth.

26:01 But

26:02 why do we talk about citizenship?

26:05 Not place of birth because

26:06 the WDR,

26:07 the framework is about the rights you have,

26:10 right?

26:10 Remember

26:11 what the framework is saying.

26:14 Where you are

26:15 is,

26:16 is,

26:16 is,

26:17 is,

26:17 there's a continuous space where each individual migrant is,

26:20 and where you are actually depends on the destination country you're at.

26:23 I might be a better match in the US as opposed to,

26:25 let's say the UK.

26:27 The policies determine where you are,

26:29 so there's that kind of there's heterogenated and there's endogeneity,

26:32 and

26:33 because of the policies,

26:34 it impacts who decides to migrate to that destination,

26:37 right?

26:38 So

26:38 the legal status is critical.

26:40 184 million people,

26:42 43% in low and middle income countries,

26:44 40% in high income,

26:46 17% in GCC.

26:48 There's a reason why we're separating GCC

26:50 because of the legal status they grant to the migrants.

26:53 Uh,

26:54 if you compare place of birth and place of citizenship,

26:57 this is what you get,

26:58 right?

26:59 The GCC,

27:00 everybody,

27:01 that's the easiest case.

27:01 They don't give citizenship to anybody,

27:03 so you're there.

27:04 The most important one is the high income countries.

27:08 Almost half the foreign born in high income countries are already naturalized,

27:13 right?

27:13 That is a huge number.

27:15 It tells you something about,

27:16 uh,

27:17 the migration process and because this is a status thing,

27:20 it is a.

27:21 Citizenship is a flow issue,

27:22 whereas place of birth is a stock issue.

27:25 In most likelihood,

27:26 the,

27:26 the rest of the people,

27:27 a big chunk of them will be naturalized eventually,

27:30 right?

27:31 Now,

27:33 I didn't mean to do this,

27:34 but

27:34 so when you look at it,

27:36 you see how the distribution changes,

27:38 right,

27:38 where the,

27:38 the,

27:38 the migrants are,

27:40 but the most important thing

27:42 again,

27:42 I want to emphasize,

27:43 even when you look at the non-citizens,

27:45 the legal status,

27:46 there's huge heterogeneity.

27:48 You have people who are undocumented,

27:50 you have people who are on a temporary visa

27:52 or a permanent visa,

27:53 and then people who are residents,

27:55 right?

27:56 People who have eligibility for citizenship versus do not.

27:59 So all of those things matter

28:02 and.

28:02 It is important that we collect the data accordingly

28:06 and because that

28:07 determines the impact,

28:09 right?

28:09 We're not just saying

28:11 the citizenship number is different and we want to come up with a different number,

28:14 but because it is important,

28:15 your legal status

28:16 determines where you are in that box,

28:19 right?

28:19 That's point number 1.

28:21 Now,

28:21 point number 2,

28:22 Tuan talked about the,

28:23 the determinants.

28:24 You want to get back to it.

28:26 Uh,

28:26 if you look at the literature,

28:28 the vast majority of the literature looks at

28:30 the wage gaps or welfare gaps as determinants.

28:32 What we want to say,

28:33 what we're seeing in the WDR is we are at an inflection point

28:37 because of demography.

28:39 And demographic,

28:40 everybody knows what's happening in Western Europe.

28:42 Italy was given an example

28:44 that's not,

28:45 you know,

28:45 it is unique.

28:46 It's unique in human history.

28:47 It is the first time in human history you're seeing

28:50 peaceful population decline,

28:51 not because of an epidemic,

28:53 natural disaster,

28:54 or a war.

28:54 It is happening because people are deciding not to have children,

28:58 right?

28:58 We know what's happening in low income countries.

29:00 That's also well known.

29:01 I mean,

29:02 everybody in Europe,

29:02 Japan,

29:03 Korea knows what's happening,

29:04 high income,

29:04 but what is as unique as that inversion of the.

29:08 The pyramid in high income countries is

29:10 what's happening in middle income countries,

29:13 that

29:14 the fertility decline is so rapid

29:17 within basically 60 years or 50 years in two generations,

29:21 the fertility rate in all these countries went from between 5 and 6% to replacement.

29:26 Again,

29:26 it took over 200 years for this to happen in North America and Western Europe.

29:31 In the same time frame,

29:32 the income levels in North America and Western Europe went up maybe 25 times.

29:37 In

29:37 India,

29:37 it went up 2.5 times.

29:40 Not only that,

29:41 that this rapid decline is happening,

29:43 it has huge other implications,

29:45 but these are also the countries that send

29:47 the migrants to the high income countries.

29:51 The vast majority of the migrants,

29:52 economic migrants,

29:53 are middle income people from middle income countries,

29:55 so this is going to change

29:57 the dynamic.

29:57 The demand is increasing in high income,

30:00 the supply is increasing in the low income.

30:02 The middle income is shifting to a demander from a supplier,

30:05 but the problem is

30:07 the match is also going to get worse.

30:10 Now the low-income countries don't have the education capacity,

30:13 human capital creation capacity

30:15 as the middle-income countries in terms of providing the,

30:17 the labor,

30:18 the needed in high income.

30:20 So

30:21 that is one of the inflection points.

30:22 What has happened in the last 6 years is likely to change.

30:26 Conflict and violence,

30:28 we are increasing some sharp increase,

30:29 but the big distinction again the middle income countries,

30:32 the last three crises

30:34 Venezuela,

30:35 Syria,

30:35 and Ukraine are middle income countries,

30:38 and the

30:40 But it means

30:41 the people coming from these countries are more educated,

30:43 more human capital,

30:44 and more financial resources to travel further,

30:46 so the impact is felt

30:49 in a wider range of countries.

30:52 Now,

30:53 Tuan talked about climate change,

30:54 what it means.

30:55 The big unknown is there

30:57 that

30:58 are we at an,

30:59 at an inflection point.

31:00 It's not the unknown is not about the science.

31:02 The unknown is about the impact,

31:04 how it is gonna spill over to the rest of the world.

31:07 Climate-induced mobility has been contained domestically

31:10 in the vast majority of cases,

31:11 but if,

31:12 uh,

31:12 if the whole country is now impacted like Bangladesh,

31:15 what does it mean?

31:16 Right?

31:16 Internal mobility is not gonna be enough to

31:19 account for it,

31:20 right?

31:20 So,

31:21 bringing all of these together,

31:23 I always say this is one of my favorite figures in the map,

31:25 in the,

31:25 in the WDR,

31:26 these 4 maps based on the four motivations.

31:29 What it shows these maps,

31:30 the high degree of correlation.

31:33 Right?

31:34 The correlation actually probably implies causation.

31:37 All these forces.

31:39 Are leading,

31:41 especially fertility decline,

31:43 demographic change,

31:44 climate change,

31:44 and conflict and violence

31:46 probably are likely to

31:47 lead to increased distressed and forced migration,

31:50 and,

31:51 and this is the big development challenge,

31:52 so we cannot address one at a time,

31:54 and the difficult types of mobility we see

31:57 are kind of the symptoms of the

31:58 underlying development challenges reflected in this map.

32:03 I already said what I was going to say.

32:05 The 4 boxes of the framework.

32:07 Probably they are all interlinked,

32:10 and they are impacted by

32:12 these linkages.

32:14 Origin countries,

32:15 quickly,

32:15 one of the other important things we see in the WDR is the following.

32:19 Almost every migration pattern we see today is

32:22 shaped by the policies of the destination countries,

32:25 and it's unilateral.

32:27 This doesn't,

32:28 this shouldn't be the case.

32:29 It is inefficient.

32:30 There's a huge responsibility that falls on the shoulders of the origin countries,

32:35 right?

32:35 What

32:36 has to happen,

32:37 different components of their

32:40 immigration-related policies,

32:42 they have to be part of an integrated policy agenda for development.

32:45 What we mean,

32:46 I'm going to give a couple of examples.

32:47 I'm sorry,

32:48 I'm talking really fast because I just came from Italy,

32:51 so I got used to

32:52 speaking fast.

32:53 All right,

32:53 remember the four boxes,

32:55 the heterogeneity and the endogeneity of the policies.

32:59 The origin countries,

33:00 what they have to do

33:01 is to help their citizens

33:03 before they migrate,

33:05 while they're abroad,

33:06 after they return,

33:07 all these different things.

33:08 Example,

33:09 one of the big things,

33:10 and Michael contributed to this,

33:12 is the migration hump,

33:14 everybody,

33:14 most of you have seen it,

33:15 that

33:16 actually as the income level changes,

33:18 this is the

33:19 impact or the observation

33:21 of the immigration rate.

33:24 We did something simple in the WDR.

33:25 If you split the countries by size,

33:28 you get a huge difference.

33:30 What does it imply then this is one of the unknowns,

33:33 especially the linkage between mobility and development,

33:36 right?

33:37 And it actually gets more interesting.

33:40 Because

33:41 that increase,

33:43 what you see happens to high-income countries because as a country develops,

33:47 income levels go up,

33:48 the human capital level,

33:49 the education level goes up,

33:51 so the selection effect kicks in.

33:53 The more educated you are,

33:54 the more likely you are to,

33:55 this is the,

33:56 the,

33:56 the,

33:57 your

33:57 right-hand

33:58 graph,

33:59 right?

33:59 How the migration patterns change.

34:01 Uh

34:02 And if you look at more of a time series pattern,

34:05 this is what you observe.

34:06 So this is a big

34:09 Point that requires to be much more delved into

34:13 brain drain.

34:14 This is what motivates it.

34:16 Pretty much every country on the planet,

34:19 migrants are more educated than the underlying population.

34:23 The implications for the labor market depends on how many highly

34:26 skilled people you have and what shortages it leads to.

34:30 Again,

34:30 the actual empirical evidence is kind of scant there,

34:33 although if you look at the policymakers in a lot of the

34:36 smaller isolated economies,

34:38 this comes across as one of their biggest concerns related to immigration.

34:43 Again,

34:43 the evidence is scant,

34:45 uh,

34:45 but this is one point where

34:47 the education policy

34:49 has to be a critical component of the overall immigration policy.

34:53 In,

34:54 in other words,

34:55 your,

34:55 uh,

34:56 education policy,

34:57 your supply of human capital has to respond to immigration opportunities.

35:00 It has to be,

35:02 uh,

35:02 upward sloping.

35:03 All right.

35:04 Other next one,

35:06 you see,

35:07 the Mexico-US corridor is the largest corridor in the world.

35:10 With millions and millions of people,

35:12 but uh,

35:12 you see the uneven distribution

35:15 within Mexico where the immigrants come from.

35:17 This has huge implications for the Mexican labor market

35:21 as well as for the provision of public goods,

35:23 so on and so forth.

35:24 So,

35:25 anytime,

35:26 uh,

35:26 the origin country designs a policy,

35:28 you have to take this

35:30 internal heterogeneity,

35:32 internal distributional impacts

35:34 into account,

35:35 right?

35:35 Again,

35:36 it determines where you are.

35:38 On the,

35:38 in terms of the uh

35:40 on the horizontal axis,

35:42 your motivations for mobility,

35:44 right?

35:45 I'm going to skip this,

35:46 uh.

35:48 We talk always about remittances.

35:50 It is one of the biggest impacts,

35:52 positive impacts for origin countries,

35:55 but even there when you dig into the data,

35:57 there are a lot of nuances.

35:59 The first and the most obvious one.

36:01 Is that if you calculate the,

36:03 the,

36:04 a lot of the data come from balance of payments accounts,

36:07 but if you look at it from a debit or a credit point of view,

36:09 there's a 50% difference.

36:12 If you look at it,

36:13 if you do a kind of a model and calculate it based on economic fundamentals,

36:17 it's even different.

36:18 Right,

36:19 we,

36:19 we,

36:19 we are even having a hard time measuring remittances,

36:22 but then how do we measure the impact,

36:25 especially the micro impact.

36:27 It is there

36:28 in terms of motivation.

36:29 It is important for development,

36:31 but we need to have a much better measurement and analysis

36:35 of remittances,

36:36 right?

36:37 So

36:37 coming back,

36:38 origin countries.

36:40 Uh,

36:40 we give the Philippines as the role model here,

36:43 get your act together,

36:45 uh,

36:45 design an overall integrated framework,

36:48 have a ministry of immigration

36:50 that actually interacts with all these other ministries as part of an overall,

36:54 uh,

36:55 agenda.

36:56 Now,

36:57 destination countries,

36:58 I'm gonna skip this very quickly because

37:00 the vast majority of the literature on migration

37:03 is based on the

37:05 evidence coming from destination countries because that's where the data are.

37:08 Right,

37:09 but the important things we want to emphasize

37:12 is it is in the hands of the

37:14 destination countries

37:15 to determine especially

37:17 where the match is,

37:18 where the migrants fall,

37:20 right,

37:20 and it is in their hands

37:22 by implementing the right policies you can increase

37:24 the increase the match and increase the benefits.

37:27 Now

37:28 there is

37:29 many times there's a trade-off between short-term

37:32 political costs and long-term economic gains,

37:34 but it is important to

37:36 weigh in on,

37:37 on the side of the long-term economic gains,

37:39 and

37:40 those policies that need to be implemented

37:43 have to do with both legal access

37:46 as well as recognition of,

37:47 for example,

37:47 credentials.

37:49 Integration policies,

37:50 inclusion policies,

37:51 this is one of my favorite figures.

37:53 You see

37:54 how the salary profile of undocumented versus documented migrants.

37:59 This is controlling for everything else.

38:01 This is based on a famous figure by Borjas.

38:04 Initially the 1st 10 years of a migrant's life,

38:07 actually the slope is the same,

38:08 but then the gap opens up

38:10 because undocumented migrants,

38:12 especially,

38:12 they do not have access to certain occupations which require

38:16 legal credentials.

38:17 Right,

38:18 and this is a huge loss to the destination country.

38:22 All right.

38:23 And also again,

38:24 the issue of inclusion

38:26 and the issue of distribution,

38:27 you're seeing it even

38:29 this is uh New York metropolitan area,

38:32 right?

38:32 These are

38:33 literally

38:34 half a mile,

38:34 these are blocks.

38:35 You see the extreme heterogeneity of the presence of the migrants.

38:39 Imagine what it implies for the whole country in terms of labor markets,

38:43 provision of public goods,

38:45 so on and so forth,

38:46 right?

38:46 Heterogeneity in its cleanest form

38:49 and hence the implications.

38:52 All right.

38:53 This is well known.

38:55 I think I said all of them pretty much.

38:58 The forced migrants are a special case,

39:00 as Tan said.

39:01 The important thing is also allowing them to move

39:04 again to reduce the long term costs

39:07 for the migrants and for the host communities.

39:10 distressed migrants.

39:13 This is one of the,

39:14 we feel the most innovative parts of the.

39:18 Both the

39:20 policymakers and actually some of our academic colleagues try to lump all,

39:24 especially voluntary migration into one bucket.

39:27 Don't get me wrong,

39:28 there are tons of undocumented migrants who are above the line

39:32 because there is so much demand for them

39:34 in the labor markets of the destination countries.

39:36 Their match is positive,

39:38 but there are still a number of people.

39:40 Their numbers are not large,

39:41 but they get significant media attention.

39:44 Who are considered who are the distressed migrants in that lower corner.

39:48 distressed migrants are the people who are

39:50 on the boats trying to cross the Mediterranean

39:52 or trying to walk,

39:54 swim through the Rio Grande.

39:55 These are the people

39:57 who die on the road.

39:59 Imagine the

40:01 poverty

40:02 they're exposed.

40:03 Imagine the harsh conditions they are exposed to that is forcing people

40:07 to risk their lives and their children's lives to take the risks

40:11 they are taking.

40:12 It's an extreme case.

40:14 This is the number of deaths

40:16 in each corridor

40:18 of distressed migration.

40:19 It is almost all undocumented.

40:21 The skill levels are low.

40:24 The legal status is uncertain.

40:26 And

40:27 these are some of the transit routes and not only

40:30 distressed migration impacts

40:32 the destination country,

40:33 but a large number of transit countries.

40:36 A lot of the tension between the US and Mexico

40:38 is not about the Mexican migrants in the United States,

40:41 but it is about the Central American migrants crossing through Mexico

40:45 and you know,

40:47 being helped by the cartels and all the criminal organizations and

40:50 the risks they're exposed to.

40:53 Or the same thing with West African routes or the route through Turkey.

40:59 Now

40:59 what we do,

41:00 the issue of distressed migration is the

41:03 extreme level of uncertainty and lack of evidence

41:06 because by definition,

41:08 Not only this is undocumented,

41:09 it's a,

41:10 it is almost a criminal activity,

41:12 right?

41:12 So it is very hard to collect the data and make the analysis,

41:15 but as Tuan said,

41:17 some of these people,

41:18 right,

41:19 try to enter,

41:20 they,

41:20 they try to enter into the top category.

41:22 They are

41:23 undocumented labor migrants.

41:26 And some of them claim asylum because those are that's the legal channel

41:31 that's available

41:32 and that asylum track becomes a targeting problem.

41:35 That's why it takes 2 years

41:37 in the US or in many European countries to educate an asylum.

41:41 Because you do not know

41:42 if you're a legitimate

41:44 defined by the law

41:46 if you have a legitimate claim

41:48 or you're one of the distressed migrants

41:50 without a legitimate claim.

41:51 This whole proposal by the UK

41:54 you know

41:55 sending a lot of the.

41:56 Asylum applicants to Rwanda

41:59 or the current EU policies are part of a way

42:02 to deal with that

42:04 that's the motivation behind that.

42:06 It's not about judging whether this is the right or the wrong policy,

42:09 but because of

42:10 how to deal

42:11 with distressed migration,

42:13 it imposes a huge challenge

42:16 to both legal economic migration

42:19 and to legal

42:20 forced migration.

42:22 And we have to figure out ways to resolve it,

42:25 as said.

42:25 Either you have to increase

42:27 legal entry channels,

42:29 you have to increase asylum channel,

42:31 and

42:32 also humane deportations has to be part of the solution.

42:36 But

42:37 these are short,

42:38 medium term solutions.

42:39 What has to resolve it in the long run is economic development.

42:43 OK.

42:44 Now,

42:45 I mentioned all of these.

42:47 I think I'm done here.

42:49 OK.

42:50 Now

42:51 coming back to the key messages of the W.

42:54 Going back,

42:55 you've seen the framework.

42:57 The framework

42:58 is meant to

42:59 not necessarily for you guys,

43:01 but the policymakers

43:02 to

43:03 put all of the issues on one simple graph and explain

43:08 what the

43:09 empirical and academic evidence,

43:11 analytical evidence is pointing,

43:12 so

43:13 both

43:14 the diversity of migration motivations,

43:16 the diversity of the migrants.

43:18 The diversity of the appropriate migration policies and also

43:23 the interaction between the outcomes and the policies themselves.

43:27 So

43:28 what we need to do is first of all is the necessity of cooperation.

43:34 Whether if it's bilateral,

43:35 mostly for economic migration,

43:37 where the match is strong,

43:38 how do we make it better.

43:39 Remember,

43:40 the objective of the whole policy framework

43:43 is to push everybody up.

43:46 And

43:46 to the left,

43:47 right?

43:48 Everybody should be up in that corner.

43:50 All of mobility we see

43:52 should be out of choice,

43:53 not out of desperation or necessity,

43:56 it should be out of choice

43:57 and it should be beneficial.

44:00 We want to minimize all other sorts of

44:02 mobility,

44:03 and that's where the policies come in

44:06 and

44:06 whether if it's bilateral cooperation

44:08 between origin and destination countries

44:11 or multilateral cooperation,

44:12 especially in the case of the asylum seekers,

44:15 sharing the burdens

44:18 because the neighboring countries,

44:19 mostly

44:20 low and middle income countries,

44:22 carry a way larger portion of that responsibility.

44:26 The financing instruments

44:28 again,

44:29 everybody has to put their hand under the table.

44:32 I was in Madrid at a dissemination event

44:36 and somebody said

44:40 the subsidies the EU provides for dairy farmers.

44:44 is significantly multiple times higher.

44:46 I didn't verify this.

44:47 I'm taking their word for granted,

44:49 is multiple times higher than the money spent on refugees.

44:54 I think it would be fair to ask some of that money is transferred

44:58 to the handling of the refugees,

45:00 and we have to figure out what's the best way

45:03 to share the burdens.

45:04 And the final

45:06 issue is what we call the inclusive decision making,

45:09 and that has different components.

45:12 One is

45:13 getting low and middle income countries to have a bigger say

45:16 in the

45:17 working together,

45:18 the bilateral cooperation side.

45:21 Especially large,

45:23 one example,

45:23 large labor standing countries in South Asia and East Asia.

45:28 Also within both destination and origin countries.

45:31 Getting the private sector involved,

45:33 believe it or not,

45:34 even in high income countries,

45:35 the private sector

45:37 has has very little say in designing or providing feedback

45:41 to immigration policy.

45:43 Singapore,

45:44 Australia,

45:45 Canada are kind of the exemptions for it,

45:47 but even in the US

45:49 you see big corporations lobbying on the smallest issues related to

45:53 other types of regulation,

45:54 but minimal actually on the issue of immigration.

45:57 And finally,

45:59 the migrants and the refugees themselves should have a say.

46:02 The people who have most to gain or lose depending on the policy environment.

46:06 Right,

46:07 and they,

46:07 they do not get much of a say,

46:09 partly because they don't get to vote,

46:11 coming back to the citizenship issue.

46:13 And partly because they are afraid,

46:15 partly because a large number of them are undocumented for a variety of reasons,

46:19 but it is important to have their voices heard.

46:22 Uh,

46:23 we went through all of this.

46:25 The framework says people are heterogeneous.

46:28 There are 4 boxes you have seen

46:30 to make it easier to explain,

46:31 but it's actually multiple,

46:33 right?

46:33 It's a continuum,

46:35 and the policies have to be designed accordingly and appropriately depending

46:40 on where you are.

46:42 And

46:43 and again the box is country specific,

46:45 migrant specific,

46:48 but the goals of the policy should be to create win

46:51 win win solutions.

46:53 I think that's all we have to say.

46:55 Thank you so much,

46:56 and then

46:57 now we'll have

46:58 Ifa and Michael.

47:06 Thanks Tu and cello.

47:07 Um,

47:08 so,

47:09 Should we just go in the order of Michael and then

47:12 you thought?

47:16 Thank you so much,

47:17 can you hear me like this?

47:19 So

47:25 But

47:26 what we hear about

47:27 migrants all the time,

47:28 uh.

47:30 In the,

47:30 in the press and the public discourse is,

47:32 uh,

47:32 is wrong.

47:33 I'm not talking about facts.

47:34 I'm talking about how

47:36 maybe 4 out of 5 news articles,

47:39 uh,

47:40 or,

47:40 or television discussions urge you to think about migrants.

47:43 They urge you to think about them like water.

47:45 There's even a literature on the hydraulic metaphor of migrants.

47:48 People talk about

47:49 flows,

47:50 waves,

47:51 torrents,

47:52 influxes,

47:53 floods,

47:54 and floodgates.

47:56 And

47:57 it's actually much more

47:58 useful,

47:59 I would argue to think about migrants like seeds.

48:02 They're creating an opportunity for themselves.

48:04 They're also a huge opportunity for others.

48:07 That opportunity can be destroyed.

48:10 Take a truck and dump 10 million seeds in the

48:12 corner of a field and don't invest anything in them,

48:15 and they're not going to flourish and they're not going to benefit anyone.

48:20 But with investment,

48:21 with the right tools,

48:23 with

48:24 uh the expenditure of

48:26 capital,

48:26 with labor,

48:28 uh,

48:28 they not only flourish for themselves but uh but give food to,

48:32 to everyone.

48:33 And

48:34 in that sense,

48:35 investment

48:36 in hosting them.

48:38 Is a global public good and that that to me is the

48:41 is the explicit and also

48:44 just meta statement of this world development report.

48:48 That for for the world and and for the ages that one

48:50 of the most important global public goods of this century is investment

48:55 in

48:55 hosting.

48:57 If migrants and refugees aren't like water,

48:59 the global public good is the dam.

49:02 Uh,

49:02 if the,

49:03 if migrants and refugees are more like seeds,

49:05 the global public good is hosting and what is done to unlock

49:09 their,

49:09 uh,

49:09 their potential,

49:11 and this is just a major,

49:12 major role,

49:13 uh,

49:13 for the World Bank.

49:15 Um

49:18 I,

49:18 uh

49:21 I,

49:21 I,

49:22 I want to focus on one.

49:24 Question

49:25 that the highest aspiration for a discussion is to leave an audience with one idea

49:29 and my question is,

49:30 uh,

49:31 how could this World Development Report shape the bank,

49:34 shape what the bank does next year,

49:36 10 years from now.

49:38 Um.

49:39 I'm thinking of the 1990 World Development Report

49:43 that gave the world the

49:44 dollar a day poverty measure and has shaped bank

49:47 operations and operations of pretty much every development agency

49:50 and is really remembered as a landmark.

49:52 When I worked under

49:54 uh Andrew Steer in the Environment Department 26 years ago,

49:57 all of my colleagues attributed the existence of the Environment Department and

50:01 its constituency within the bank to the 1992 World Development Report.

50:05 So the question in my mind coming in today was what would it take

50:09 for

50:10 this WDR to be looked back on as a as a monument,

50:14 uh,

50:14 like those,

50:15 something that really changed uh bank uh

50:17 operations.

50:18 So I,

50:20 I,

50:20 I remember the,

50:21 the old days,

50:22 uh,

50:23 I'm old,

50:23 so the old,

50:24 some of the old days are quite a while ago.

50:26 I went to the launch of the

50:28 2006 Global Economic Prospects,

50:30 uh,

50:31 about remittances,

50:32 focusing on remittances.

50:33 Um,

50:34 there was Yuri Dadou who had to feel a really annoying question from,

50:38 from

50:39 annoying

50:40 Michael Clemens.

50:42 I,

50:42 I,

50:42 I asked him there,

50:44 you know,

50:45 uh,

50:45 remittances are,

50:47 are so voluminous now.

50:49 Uh,

50:50 as transfers to the developing world that anything the bank did

50:53 that

50:54 by facilitating temporary or permanent migration by making remittances cheaper,

50:58 the combination of which,

51:00 uh,

51:01 caused.

51:04 7-8%

51:06 increase

51:07 in remittances to the developing world

51:10 would be more capital flowing into the world than the whole

51:13 annual disbursement of IDA

51:15 at that time.

51:15 Why isn't this a major function of the World Bank?

51:18 Why isn't this the first thing you see when you go to

51:21 the World Bank's,

51:21 uh,

51:22 website?

51:23 And rightly he kind of chuckled at that,

51:24 and everybody in the room kind of chuckled at that and was seen as kind of silly.

51:28 2010.

51:30 Uh,

51:31 David McKenzie,

51:32 I don't know if David happens to be here,

51:34 one of the leading,

51:35 uh,

51:36 applied development economists in the world sitting here at the bank

51:39 evaluated.

51:41 The effects on

51:42 households in

51:43 Tonga and Vanuatu of the of New Zealand's recognized seasonal employer scheme.

51:48 The working paper version of his paper in the abstract called it

51:52 quote one of the most

51:54 effective development projects

51:55 ever created.

51:57 Because here was a program that

51:59 was wildly popular,

52:00 was greatly beneficial to New Zealand,

52:03 was,

52:04 uh,

52:04 was multiplying

52:06 wages by a factor of 15.

52:10 Uh

52:11 Not much else that the bank or any other development

52:13 agency has ever done could do anything like that.

52:15 Here's the,

52:16 the people sitting in the bank calling this

52:18 one of the most effective things it's ever done

52:20 and asking,

52:20 well,

52:21 does the structure of the bank's portfolio,

52:22 does the structure,

52:23 does the organizational structure of the bank,

52:25 does the allocation of people whose jobs it is to do stuff

52:28 reflect

52:29 that one of the best things it ever did was.

52:32 Helping

52:33 a bunch of guys go to New Zealand and pick fruit,

52:36 um,

52:36 not really wildly out of,

52:38 out of step with that.

52:40 Fast forward to 2023 and here we are with a world development

52:43 report saying one of the greatest public goods in the world is to

52:47 is is hosting migrants and refugees and how could

52:51 development agencies get involved in in facilitating that.

52:54 And um.

52:56 Just talking,

52:57 doing an informal poll with some bank colleagues over the last couple of weeks,

53:00 knowing I was gonna come in,

53:01 I,

53:02 I asked,

53:02 well,

53:03 what,

53:03 what should happen?

53:05 And one of the clearest answers I got was,

53:08 Uh,

53:09 there,

53:09 there could be,

53:10 so this is a question,

53:11 could there be

53:13 a,

53:13 a window?

53:15 I

53:16 Of of some kind either either

53:19 either from the bank's treasury or a a facility managed by the bank.

53:23 Designed to finance the hosting

53:26 of non-refugee migrants.

53:29 Uh,

53:29 in,

53:31 in middle income countries,

53:33 particularly or perhaps also low income countries

53:35 right now,

53:36 uh,

53:37 there is,

53:38 uh,

53:38 what's the official name of it,

53:39 the Window for hosting Communities and refugees

53:42 name has changed over the over the last few years,

53:44 part of Ida.

53:46 So far it's it's uh

53:47 dispersed something like $7 billion

53:50 to low income countries.

53:52 To ITA members to help them

53:54 host refugees,

53:55 there is the GCFF

53:57 which has similarly over its lifetime dispersed something like 7

54:01 billion to middle income countries to help them host refugees.

54:04 There doesn't seem to be a big sphere of bank action

54:07 to create,

54:09 to collaborate in the creation of new destinations

54:12 for what some people might call economic migrants,

54:14 uh,

54:15 people in the,

54:16 in the,

54:17 in the,

54:18 on,

54:19 on,

54:19 on one,

54:20 side of the,

54:21 of the motive,

54:22 uh,

54:23 uh,

54:24 and,

54:24 and,

54:24 and match,

54:25 uh,

54:25 matrix that you just looked at.

54:27 Uh,

54:27 nothing.

54:29 And,

54:29 and then we have

54:31 the

54:31 astonishing,

54:32 as Chalar pointed out,

54:33 totally unprecedented demographic pressures.

54:37 Uh,

54:37 meaning that there's going to be a whole lot more migration.

54:40 Um,

54:40 a,

54:40 a statistic that I,

54:42 I wanna send home with,

54:43 with everyone here is

54:44 that in,

54:45 if in the world population prospects of the UN,

54:48 which Chaler doesn't believe,

54:49 uh,

54:50 uh,

54:50 but,

54:50 uh,

54:50 but,

54:51 but contains some reflection of reality,

54:53 out to 2,

54:54 up to the year 2100,

54:56 what fraction of all working age human beings will be African?

55:00 And the answer is over 40%.

55:04 The share of working age people in every other region of the world

55:08 starting 10 years from now is going to be shrinking

55:11 except Africa will continue to grow up to and through 2100

55:15 so that's where the workers are going to be

55:17 and yet we have

55:19 Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh

55:21 pointing out that

55:23 even a,

55:24 a,

55:24 a,

55:25 a tripling of the the African fraction of residents of Europe,

55:29 which clearly they discussed as probing

55:31 the limits of what's politically possible.

55:33 Would only absorb a small fraction of 1%

55:37 of those people.

55:39 So a lot of them are going to be migrating under some terms or another

55:43 and helping create new destinations for them

55:46 could be and I would argue should be a major major

55:49 area of action,

55:50 uh,

55:51 for the bank,

55:52 uh,

55:53 and,

55:53 and all other development agencies

55:55 financing

55:56 um.

55:57 Other countries to do

55:59 like what Malaysia has done.

56:01 Not many people know that Malaysia is by far the

56:03 number one destination for temporary workers in the world.

56:07 It's not the US.

56:08 It's not Saudi Arabia.

56:09 Uh,

56:10 if you're talking about,

56:11 uh,

56:11 temporary guest workers,

56:13 uh,

56:13 Malaysia

56:14 has created more opportunities

56:16 for,

56:17 uh,

56:17 for all of them evaluated by IFAT and,

56:19 uh,

56:20 and,

56:20 and others

56:21 as a,

56:22 as a tremendous benefit to.

56:24 To Malaysia,

56:25 uh,

56:26 as,

56:26 as,

56:26 as Chala and others have written,

56:28 uh,

56:29 certainly to the origin countries,

56:31 certainly to the migrants,

56:33 something that

56:34 is a,

56:35 is a tremendous success but essentially financed

56:39 entirely and,

56:39 and,

56:40 and,

56:40 uh,

56:41 and,

56:41 and carried out with,

56:42 with,

56:43 with knowledge,

56:44 uh,

56:45 local only to Malaysia.

56:47 And uh

56:48 if I had to,

56:49 I'll I'll just close by

56:51 by much more briefly pointing out a few other areas

56:54 speaking of knowledge.

56:55 Uh,

56:56 why is it that

56:57 when I've recently worked with the World Bank or with the,

57:00 with the US government

57:01 trying to build

57:03 lawful labor migration pathways between,

57:06 uh,

57:06 Northern Central America and the United States.

57:09 Why is it that that there isn't such a brand of the World Bank which has been a leader

57:14 in that area?

57:15 I,

57:16 I don't know if Manjula is,

57:17 uh,

57:17 is here.

57:18 Uh,

57:19 there,

57:19 sorry,

57:20 I don't have my glasses on.

57:21 Hi,

57:22 uh,

57:22 Manjula Luthria and,

57:23 and other people in this room

57:25 actively helped build

57:27 some of the most successful,

57:29 uh,

57:29 labor pathways between developing world and,

57:32 and,

57:32 and more developed countries.

57:34 And have sat in the room

57:36 working out the difficult details of program design that

57:39 are necessary to make those things happen at all,

57:41 be politically feasible,

57:42 be maximally beneficial.

57:44 Why is it that

57:45 that wasn't such a brand of this institution that the first thing

57:48 that USAID officials thought to do

57:50 was come to the World Bank and learn,

57:53 uh,

57:53 from them?

57:53 Why isn't that a global knowledge practice,

57:56 uh,

57:56 for the,

57:57 for the bank?

57:58 Um.

57:59 When,

58:00 uh,

58:00 when,

58:01 when Nobel laureate Michael Kramer and I wrote a paper

58:03 trying to justify the continuing existence of

58:05 the World Bank at its seventy-fifth anniversary,

58:08 one of the most effective things we

58:10 found it had ever

58:11 done was spread the idea,

58:13 help spread the idea of cash transfers

58:15 around the world,

58:16 um,

58:17 not with capital but with knowledge,

58:19 and the bank could do that,

58:20 uh,

58:21 and has a really deep experience in that area and human capital in that area.

58:24 They could do that for bilaterals and,

58:26 uh,

58:26 and,

58:27 and,

58:27 uh,

58:27 and others all over the world.

58:29 And uh.

58:31 Uh,

58:32 uh,

58:33 I'll close with a,

58:33 with a last idea,

58:34 and this is just a brainstorm because the last thing

58:36 I'm an expert in is the organization of the bank,

58:39 but another thing that many of my colleagues mentioned was the

58:42 fragmentation in the bank of work on migration.

58:45 A lot of it depends on particularly visionary country directors.

58:49 Um,

58:50 incandescent individuals,

58:52 uh,

58:53 like Ifa sitting next to me are highly valuable,

58:55 uh,

58:56 but institutionalizing the process is,

58:58 is necessary because positions change,

59:00 people move on.

59:02 And

59:03 um

59:04 one of one of my interlocutors said uh that uh

59:06 that in in Africa migration is seen as a health

59:09 issue in MA it's about refugees in lack it's about poverty

59:12 and in East Asia Pacific it's SPJ,

59:15 um.

59:16 Shouldn't there be a,

59:17 a,

59:17 a cross-cutting,

59:19 uh,

59:20 uh

59:22 Practice network

59:24 uh

59:24 empowered with money

59:26 with uh

59:27 with influence

59:28 with an external brand

59:30 like gender like FCV

59:32 for migration

59:33 to make sure there are more people in the bank whose entire job is just to do

59:37 this

59:38 uh finance one of the most important

59:40 global public goods of this century.

59:43 Three ideas.

59:46 Thank you,

59:46 Michael,

59:47 and um.

59:50 I,

59:50 I don't think anybody is an expert on

59:52 the organizational structure of the World Bank.

59:54 It changes all the time,

59:55 so you can't be.

59:57 If I

59:59 Thank you,

1:00:00 thank you,

1:00:00 Michael,

1:00:01 um,

1:00:02 uh,

1:00:02 and you know,

1:00:03 let me try to sort of

1:00:04 pick up from where you left in terms of,

1:00:07 um,

1:00:07 in terms of,

1:00:08 uh,

1:00:09 bringing in the human capital angle but also I think Challer's

1:00:12 last point about,

1:00:13 you know,

1:00:13 how do we move people into this that sort of left hand.

1:00:17 Upper corner box,

1:00:19 uh,

1:00:19 and,

1:00:19 and I really have kind of 3 takeaways,

1:00:22 uh,

1:00:22 that I wanted to share and put on the table,

1:00:24 and I hope this will give you some good news on,

1:00:27 on the work the bank is doing and the potentially what else we could be doing actually

1:00:31 along with,

1:00:31 with,

1:00:32 uh,

1:00:32 many of the people in this,

1:00:33 in this room.

1:00:35 Um,

1:00:35 so the kind of the first,

1:00:36 the first point I want to sort of my first takeaway is really,

1:00:39 um,

1:00:40 what,

1:00:40 what I,

1:00:41 my favorite slide actually,

1:00:42 uh,

1:00:43 from the PowerPoint is the one where you showed the demographic

1:00:46 divergence,

1:00:47 and I think,

1:00:48 you know,

1:00:48 if,

1:00:48 if we were to just take that,

1:00:49 I mean that that is sort of I think the big,

1:00:51 big news for us because as Chala you mentioned this is the first time in history,

1:00:55 in population history that we're seeing.

1:00:57 This,

1:00:57 this decline,

1:00:58 uh,

1:00:59 uh,

1:00:59 in,

1:01:00 um,

1:01:00 uh,

1:01:01 you know,

1:01:01 in,

1:01:01 in

1:01:03 working age population and increasing in aging,

1:01:06 uh,

1:01:06 and but on that slide,

1:01:07 if,

1:01:08 if you add.

1:01:10 Uh,

1:01:10 the proportion of working age population

1:01:14 in these three groups of,

1:01:16 um,

1:01:16 high income,

1:01:17 uh,

1:01:17 three groups of income,

1:01:18 uh,

1:01:18 level,

1:01:19 uh,

1:01:20 groups of countries,

1:01:21 what you see actually,

1:01:23 um,

1:01:23 is

1:01:24 the tremendous scope

1:01:26 to expand.

1:01:28 The the scope of,

1:01:30 um,

1:01:31 uh,

1:01:32 working age population to be employed,

1:01:34 right?

1:01:34 So even if you look at the high income countries you see

1:01:37 uh that perhaps there is scope for increasing the working age,

1:01:40 uh,

1:01:41 the,

1:01:41 the,

1:01:41 the prolonging the the engagement of of older workers in,

1:01:45 in the,

1:01:45 in,

1:01:46 um,

1:01:46 in,

1:01:46 uh,

1:01:47 uh,

1:01:47 the labor force because obviously,

1:01:49 you know,

1:01:49 as,

1:01:49 as,

1:01:50 as,

1:01:50 um,

1:01:51 the speakers mentioned there's a shrinking,

1:01:52 uh,

1:01:53 labor force populate uh shrinking,

1:01:54 uh,

1:01:55 age.

1:01:55 If,

1:01:56 but if you look at the middle income country,

1:01:58 uh,

1:01:59 demographic profile and you look at the

1:02:01 proportion of working age population that are employed,

1:02:04 you see huge scope for expanding that,

1:02:07 especially among the youth and women,

1:02:09 right?

1:02:10 And then if you look at the third group of countries,

1:02:13 your low income countries,

1:02:14 what you see is even though you still have this kind of

1:02:17 solid base,

1:02:17 like larger base,

1:02:19 the share of working age population,

1:02:22 uh,

1:02:22 in

1:02:23 the countries like Africa in Africa and others

1:02:26 is.

1:02:27 Larger than ever,

1:02:28 right?

1:02:28 So,

1:02:29 so what this tells you is a very simple fact,

1:02:31 which is,

1:02:32 there is obviously a lot of scope

1:02:34 for thinking through in three dimensions.

1:02:37 One,

1:02:38 you know,

1:02:38 how do you increase productivity of your working age so you are able to expand and,

1:02:42 and benefit from that.

1:02:44 Uh,

1:02:44 second,

1:02:45 how do you think about aging population in terms of their,

1:02:47 their care in terms of prolonging their engagement in the labor force,

1:02:51 and thirdly,

1:02:52 clearly what the,

1:02:53 the,

1:02:53 the report talks about is,

1:02:55 is how do you help with the,

1:02:57 the,

1:02:57 the labor arbitrage across countries,

1:02:59 surplus countries,

1:03:00 um,

1:03:01 uh,

1:03:01 uh,

1:03:01 in labor and and countries that are seeing shrinking labor supply,

1:03:05 so.

1:03:05 So sort of I just want to sort of expand the thinking of your

1:03:08 of your framework because you know within with if you put it in the space

1:03:12 the clear policy implications for the bank

1:03:15 uh could be coming in and and motivating countries to think about then how you

1:03:19 think of the migration um

1:03:21 uh channel but,

1:03:22 but the bottom line,

1:03:23 the key takeaway for me there is that really at at the end,

1:03:26 in the end of the day,

1:03:27 uh,

1:03:27 the best policy for countries can think about is really investing in human.

1:03:31 Capital

1:03:32 right?

1:03:32 and and improving productivity of their populations because

1:03:35 when my when people move regardless of

1:03:38 the motive whether it's for economic opportunity

1:03:41 whether it's because there is a fear factor here

1:03:43 you move with one asset your human capital

1:03:46 and and and I think if if if so that to me is like a clear implication

1:03:51 for us in our work that um that you know we may we we we would wanna we

1:03:55 we would wanna be doing.

1:03:57 Um,

1:03:58 the,

1:03:58 the second,

1:03:59 um,

1:04:00 the,

1:04:00 the second point I want to make is that,

1:04:01 you know,

1:04:01 the bank in this space in,

1:04:03 in all these three dimensions quite uniquely placed to facilitate,

1:04:07 um,

1:04:08 all the policies that,

1:04:10 that Chaler put,

1:04:10 put out,

1:04:11 um,

1:04:12 uh,

1:04:13 in,

1:04:13 in,

1:04:13 in,

1:04:13 in many ways because,

1:04:14 you know,

1:04:14 we,

1:04:15 we do work across different,

1:04:17 uh,

1:04:17 uh,

1:04:18 regions,

1:04:19 you know,

1:04:19 we have engagements,

1:04:20 uh,

1:04:20 in.

1:04:21 Destination countries we have engagements in uh origin countries um

1:04:25 and clearly the work you mentioned on Malaysia

1:04:28 that I did show the benefits of managing

1:04:31 uh uh uh in a legal way,

1:04:33 uh,

1:04:33 more remunerative contractual based

1:04:36 migration.

1:04:37 Um,

1:04:38 um,

1:04:39 uh,

1:04:40 across,

1:04:40 across this countries now

1:04:42 what many

1:04:43 maybe colleagues don't know,

1:04:45 including yourself,

1:04:45 uh,

1:04:46 uh,

1:04:46 Michael,

1:04:47 that

1:04:47 actually when you look at some of the operations we've been doing in the bank,

1:04:51 we actually have over 100 operations in 37 countries

1:04:55 where we could be leveraging that engagement

1:04:58 to do exactly what the WDR is,

1:05:00 is talking about.

1:05:01 So,

1:05:01 so,

1:05:02 you know,

1:05:02 I hope that you know we would be.

1:05:03 Be able to think about this more systematically,

1:05:06 um,

1:05:06 and,

1:05:06 and what are the kind of interventions we see,

1:05:08 you know,

1:05:08 we see,

1:05:09 we've,

1:05:09 we're seeing,

1:05:10 um,

1:05:11 supporting countries in,

1:05:13 in putting together bilateral labor agreements,

1:05:15 uh,

1:05:16 you know,

1:05:16 the work we did Michael in Nigeria thinking about

1:05:18 global skills partnerships that Manjula also had mentioned,

1:05:21 you know,

1:05:21 in Nigeria,

1:05:22 the fact that,

1:05:22 you know,

1:05:23 we just all we did was

1:05:24 actually explored with the government ways they could help work with the UK,

1:05:29 um.

1:05:30 Uh,

1:05:30 uh,

1:05:30 uh,

1:05:31 in terms of hiring nurses,

1:05:32 right,

1:05:33 because the UK had a huge demand,

1:05:34 uh,

1:05:35 it,

1:05:35 so the,

1:05:35 the,

1:05:36 the intervention is quite

1:05:37 not very complex.

1:05:38 It's really about putting together and sharing

1:05:41 ways that some of these labor agreements can,

1:05:43 can function,

1:05:44 uh,

1:05:44 thinking through intermediation systems,

1:05:46 right?

1:05:46 So we talk about in,

1:05:47 in many of our,

1:05:48 um,

1:05:48 uh,

1:05:49 uh,

1:05:49 engagements in,

1:05:50 in social protection and jobs,

1:05:51 for example,

1:05:52 we do do a lot of,

1:05:53 um,

1:05:53 labor market intermediation.

1:05:55 Activities

1:05:56 ALMPs

1:05:57 one could potentially basically expand that

1:06:01 to a global labor market intermediation

1:06:03 uh mechanism.

1:06:04 So,

1:06:04 so in,

1:06:05 in many ways if you,

1:06:06 if you did,

1:06:06 if you could do this properly,

1:06:08 um,

1:06:08 thinking through recruitments in,

1:06:10 in,

1:06:11 uh,

1:06:12 uh,

1:06:12 countries that are receiving,

1:06:13 uh,

1:06:14 uh,

1:06:14 labor,

1:06:15 uh,

1:06:15 um,

1:06:16 you know,

1:06:16 sort of intermediation systems in countries that are sending labor,

1:06:19 you know,

1:06:19 you could be.

1:06:21 Pretty much uh uh uh uh uh motivate what I call a global talent race

1:06:28 right because countries would then

1:06:29 want to be part of this competitive mechanism whereby their

1:06:33 population is competitive in the labor labor

1:06:34 international labor markets and so that's kind of

1:06:36 um

1:06:37 would be a sort of a a pretty um.

1:06:40 Uh,

1:06:41 uh,

1:06:41 easy entry point,

1:06:42 I can,

1:06:42 I think for us,

1:06:43 uh,

1:06:43 uh,

1:06:44 at the bank,

1:06:45 uh,

1:06:46 financing schemes are

1:06:47 what we see from research is very important.

1:06:49 So,

1:06:50 and here I want to sort of bring in the point about we,

1:06:52 we often think about

1:06:54 movement to

1:06:55 destination countries,

1:06:56 but I think what I'd like to propose and maybe think a bit more with,

1:06:59 with all of you

1:07:00 movement back

1:07:01 into origin countries,

1:07:03 right,

1:07:03 uh,

1:07:04 including

1:07:04 what you mentioned,

1:07:05 Michael,

1:07:05 remittances,

1:07:06 right?

1:07:06 So the huge source.

1:07:07 Of

1:07:08 of funding that comes into destination countries but also

1:07:11 when when people specially in in when you have these managed migration systems

1:07:16 we are seeing a lot of movement back into

1:07:19 the origin countries and when they when returnees come back

1:07:22 they come back with skills they come back with some financing

1:07:25 and so thinking through what kind of support one could be thinking of for returnees

1:07:29 will be in.

1:07:30 Another way of,

1:07:30 of perhaps um

1:07:32 benefiting from,

1:07:33 from,

1:07:33 from international migration

1:07:35 and not to forget the whole

1:07:37 space of diaspora bonds,

1:07:39 right?

1:07:39 uh,

1:07:40 you know,

1:07:40 uh you mentioned Michael that you know this,

1:07:42 you know

1:07:42 what we know the volume of remittances actually dwarfs

1:07:46 any uh data on FDI so

1:07:49 the the potential to utilize that source of financing.

1:07:52 Uh,

1:07:53 you know,

1:07:53 it,

1:07:54 it could be a tremendous for us,

1:07:55 and in fact Nigeria is the one country that actually

1:07:58 has,

1:07:59 um,

1:07:59 issued a diaspora bond,

1:08:01 uh,

1:08:01 and,

1:08:01 and we could be thinking about looking at,

1:08:04 at their experiences as to what,

1:08:05 how the,

1:08:05 what the takeup was,

1:08:06 what kind of,

1:08:07 um,

1:08:08 guarantees could.

1:08:09 Actually facilitate more of these diaspora bonds

1:08:11 would begin uh

1:08:12 uh an area for us to operationally uh uh engage

1:08:16 um

1:08:17 and so I think it is so the the the second

1:08:19 takeaway essentially is that there is a lot we could be

1:08:22 doing uh in our work in uh in the bank,

1:08:25 um.

1:08:25 Uh,

1:08:26 and in fact,

1:08:27 um,

1:08:27 we do have a community of practice on migration.

1:08:30 We have a migration steering committee that is,

1:08:33 uh,

1:08:33 that is hosted by the Social Protection and Jobs,

1:08:35 uh,

1:08:35 Global Practice,

1:08:36 uh,

1:08:37 so I,

1:08:37 I think the,

1:08:38 the WDR essentially,

1:08:40 um,

1:08:40 offers more visibility to the work that we're doing already in the institution.

1:08:44 And I think,

1:08:45 uh,

1:08:45 there's tremendous scope

1:08:47 to,

1:08:47 to deepen,

1:08:48 uh,

1:08:48 deepen that that work

1:08:50 and my final point,

1:08:51 um,

1:08:52 is really I think

1:08:53 where I,

1:08:54 I would hope that the Blue Deer can really help is,

1:08:57 is,

1:08:57 uh,

1:08:58 bringing a narrative shift,

1:09:00 right,

1:09:00 because I think

1:09:01 all of the work that we wanna do

1:09:03 really hits a wall

1:09:05 because

1:09:06 as you know,

1:09:07 politics have trumped the analytics,

1:09:10 right?

1:09:11 And I think the pun is completely intended here,

1:09:13 right?

1:09:14 Um,

1:09:14 because

1:09:16 that,

1:09:16 you know,

1:09:16 often the,

1:09:17 the narrative is very much orthogonal to

1:09:20 what the research is saying

1:09:21 and so,

1:09:22 sort of maybe

1:09:23 having the WDR messages be shared more forcefully across,

1:09:27 uh,

1:09:27 uh,

1:09:28 you know,

1:09:28 um.

1:09:29 Uh,

1:09:29 stakeholders who think differently even

1:09:31 though those are uncomfortable conversations.

1:09:33 I think there's a conversation we need to have

1:09:35 and of course expanding the research,

1:09:37 uh,

1:09:38 evidence,

1:09:38 and this is where I think,

1:09:39 you know,

1:09:39 and socialition and jobs would love to collaborate with,

1:09:42 with tech because I think the whole.

1:09:44 Uh,

1:09:45 sort of thinking having a research program on the dynamics of migration,

1:09:48 and here

1:09:49 I really think there's a lot more work we need to do on the return

1:09:52 migration,

1:09:53 uh,

1:09:53 uh,

1:09:54 uh,

1:09:54 space,

1:09:55 uh,

1:09:55 to really also help some of the discussions

1:09:57 or,

1:09:57 or,

1:09:58 you know,

1:09:58 uncomfortable questions that policymakers often ask is brain drain,

1:10:02 right?

1:10:02 But

1:10:02 to address that those issues we need to have this evidence of,

1:10:05 you know,

1:10:06 how,

1:10:06 how have migrants.

1:10:07 Come back?

1:10:08 What do they,

1:10:08 what have,

1:10:09 how have they contributed?

1:10:10 I mean,

1:10:11 in fact,

1:10:11 my own country in Bangladesh,

1:10:12 you know,

1:10:12 sort of the best pizza

1:10:14 in in Bangladesh you get is on the in the countrysides of Bangladesh because

1:10:19 you have a huge number of,

1:10:21 of,

1:10:21 of,

1:10:21 of migrants coming back from Italy and opening up restaurants.

1:10:25 So it's,

1:10:25 it's really,

1:10:26 so if you want thin crust pizza,

1:10:28 you go

1:10:29 outside Dhaka.

1:10:31 Really,

1:10:32 so,

1:10:32 so,

1:10:32 so I think

1:10:33 there's a lot there that we don't know in

1:10:36 terms of the dynamics and the kind of services

1:10:39 returnees may,

1:10:39 may need,

1:10:40 um,

1:10:41 to really help with this kind of cyclical,

1:10:44 uh,

1:10:44 migration.

1:10:45 So,

1:10:45 so let me,

1:10:46 let me stop here and,

1:10:47 and,

1:10:47 and,

1:10:47 and really look forward to the conversation and

1:10:49 thank you again for,

1:10:50 um,

1:10:51 inviting me.

1:10:53 Thank you both.

1:10:54 Um,

1:10:55 OK,

1:10:55 so we have about 15 minutes left.

1:10:57 Um,

1:10:58 right now there's no questions in the chat and I don't see any hands raised.

1:11:02 Um.

1:11:04 So I'll go to the room,

1:11:05 but maybe if,

1:11:05 if either of you want to react to,

1:11:07 to,

1:11:08 to

1:11:09 These,

1:11:10 uh,

1:11:10 comments,

1:11:11 um,

1:11:12 before we open it up for questions,

1:11:13 I'll give you a chance to do so.

1:11:19 I mean

1:11:20 thank you Ifa

1:11:20 and,

1:11:21 and Michael.

1:11:22 Are you,

1:11:22 I mean,

1:11:22 both of them have been very supportive all throughout the process.

1:11:25 That's not the reason we invited them,

1:11:27 uh,

1:11:28 but your comments are very well taken.

1:11:30 I just wanna talk about the demographics one more.

1:11:33 There's another slide we didn't put there.

1:11:35 Maybe I should have given you a comment.

1:11:37 If you look at the dependence ratio of the whole world,

1:11:41 the share of the labor force in the world population.

1:11:44 It is,

1:11:45 it's also an unlikely and unheard of situation of stability

1:11:49 that has been going on for almost 10 years and another 25 years to go,

1:11:53 right?

1:11:54 It's very stable,

1:11:55 but what is happening underlying this,

1:11:57 so it's great for the world,

1:11:58 right?

1:12:00 Uh,

1:12:00 the aging doesn't seem to be affecting the world as a whole,

1:12:03 but the issue,

1:12:03 as we are trying to argue

1:12:05 is that.

1:12:06 Where the

1:12:07 the

1:12:08 workers are

1:12:09 and where they are needed,

1:12:10 the gap,

1:12:11 the both the physical gap and the human capital gap is increasing,

1:12:14 right?

1:12:15 I mean that's the point of the WDR

1:12:17 and hence the inflection point and hence we have another 25 years.

1:12:20 I mean the,

1:12:21 the way

1:12:21 we kind of try to expose it,

1:12:22 it's not a

1:12:24 like a

1:12:25 message of alarm or negativity,

1:12:27 but the,

1:12:27 the,

1:12:29 a message of opportunity,

1:12:30 right?

1:12:30 We have that 25 years

1:12:32 and what we do

1:12:33 within that 25 years

1:12:35 can change the way we know.

1:12:36 Uh,

1:12:37 how things operate both in low and high income countries,

1:12:40 I mean

1:12:40 that's the

1:12:41 fundamental issue

1:12:42 and

1:12:43 your point on human capital is exactly on the dot.

1:12:46 This,

1:12:46 this could have been as well,

1:12:48 uh,

1:12:48 a report on human capital,

1:12:50 right?

1:12:50 That that whole match is about human capital.

1:12:53 Demand increasing,

1:12:54 supply increasing,

1:12:56 but also the,

1:12:56 the human capital gap is increasing,

1:12:59 and that's where the bank,

1:13:00 I think,

1:13:00 does its

1:13:01 best.

1:13:02 How do we,

1:13:03 it's an arbitrage opportunity and how do we make the,

1:13:06 the gains increase from that arbitrage.

1:13:08 So that's number one

1:13:09 and

1:13:10 your point about return is also right on the dot.

1:13:13 We didn't put in the presentation again WDR is 200 pages

1:13:17 and there's a lot of detail,

1:13:18 but

1:13:19 in many cases return rate is 50%.

1:13:22 Right,

1:13:22 and it again falls on the origin countries

1:13:26 on what you do with the migrants.

1:13:28 The migrants in the Gulf 100% return,

1:13:31 but even the migrants in Europe and the US,

1:13:33 the return rates are

1:13:35 significantly higher than anybody anticipates,

1:13:38 variety of reasons,

1:13:39 and most countries seem to waste that human

1:13:42 capital that comes with the returning migrants.

1:13:48 So we,

1:13:49 we started

1:13:50 the definition of migrant as

1:13:53 a person who doesn't have citizenship in the country they live in.

1:13:57 And I think this the way the bank operates is that we engage with

1:14:00 governments and governments don't

1:14:02 internalize necessarily as much

1:14:05 the welfare of non-citizens compared to the welfare of citizens

1:14:09 and therefore I think your point is spot on is the financial instrument

1:14:13 that allows to correct

1:14:15 that preference mismatch is at the is at the heart

1:14:18 of how we can also engage with with governments.

1:14:21 In order to internalize the the the welfare of migrants,

1:14:24 there's partnership,

1:14:25 there's knowledge,

1:14:25 but the financial instrument is,

1:14:27 I think,

1:14:28 the big missing piece in this whole

1:14:31 policy,

1:14:32 the implementation that that we've been discussing.

1:14:38 Thanks,

1:14:39 do you mind doing a show of hands to see who,

1:14:41 who might have questions?

1:14:42 OK,

1:14:43 we have,

1:14:43 OK,

1:14:43 let's just go around maybe this would take a couple

1:14:46 and then

1:14:46 turn it back to

1:14:48 the panel.

1:14:49 Let's start with Peter.

1:14:52 Thank you,

1:14:52 uh,

1:14:53 Peter Darvish,

1:14:55 retiree.

1:14:56 Uh,

1:14:57 so,

1:14:58 uh,

1:14:59 brilliant presentation,

1:15:00 brilliant,

1:15:01 study as far as I can see.

1:15:04 on this

1:15:07 discussion.

1:15:10 I had uh one

1:15:14 observation,

1:15:14 one impression.

1:15:16 And I would start by saying that 1010 years ago,

1:15:19 Dion,

1:15:19 you had a you organized a meeting

1:15:23 in HD

1:15:24 uh

1:15:25 trying to initiate a sort of a new approach to

1:15:29 economic and financial analysis for investment

1:15:32 operations in human development.

1:15:34 I don't know if you remember that.

1:15:36 Uh,

1:15:37 I,

1:15:37 I think the,

1:15:38 the biggest impact on the operations,

1:15:42 uh,

1:15:42 from this

1:15:44 would be if the team could sort of reconstruct or revise.

1:15:52 A model economic and financial analysis

1:15:56 for operations

1:15:58 that would focus on

1:16:00 migration displacement so that the teams could actually just tailor

1:16:05 it to the to the local context because that's.

1:16:10 In my view,

1:16:11 and I think Dion agreed at that,

1:16:13 at least at that time,

1:16:14 it's very poor,

1:16:15 so it's we,

1:16:16 we just put a few

1:16:17 internal rate of returns,

1:16:19 uh,

1:16:20 analysis and.

1:16:22 And why the bank is best positioned to address these issues,

1:16:26 but I think

1:16:28 there is depth in this report that could be sort of translated.

1:16:33 Into this.

1:16:33 My other

1:16:35 question is more coming.

1:16:38 Home to my field which is

1:16:40 you mentioned the emphasis in the presentation you mentioned the emphasis on

1:16:45 education policy.

1:16:47 And

1:16:48 that that's what I was doing before I retired and uh but I'm not sure

1:16:52 maybe in the,

1:16:53 in the,

1:16:53 in the report you detailed it.

1:16:55 I'm,

1:16:56 I'm not sure where

1:16:58 that kind of

1:16:59 importance lies or what exactly.

1:17:03 You're recommending because the education policies that we have pursued

1:17:07 globally

1:17:09 in terms of displacement forced displacement,

1:17:11 not just not specifically migrants or not generally migrants

1:17:17 was very

1:17:18 inward looking so we were just looking at um you know uh.

1:17:23 Training teachers,

1:17:24 providing

1:17:26 facilities and materials,

1:17:29 language of instruction,

1:17:31 and stuff like that,

1:17:33 so we have not had.

1:17:35 A clear sort of idea on our own of what that

1:17:40 we we felt instinctively that education should be

1:17:44 given a more importance in tackling um.

1:17:48 Migration and and displacement,

1:17:50 but we did not necessarily have the sort of the breakthrough idea of what

1:17:55 where should that be.

1:17:56 Thank you.

1:17:58 Thanks.

1:17:58 So

1:18:00 Who was next in sort of going around

1:18:02 counterclockwise?

1:18:04 Over there,

1:18:04 OK.

1:18:05 Hi,

1:18:05 good morning,

1:18:06 everyone.

1:18:06 I'm Marla Spivak.

1:18:07 I'm actually currently with the Education Practice,

1:18:09 and I had two questions,

1:18:11 one of which I think was building exactly that sort of what's the role for education,

1:18:15 particularly,

1:18:16 um,

1:18:16 we've been speaking in the education practice a lot,

1:18:18 and before he left,

1:18:20 uh,

1:18:20 JP was doing a lot,

1:18:22 uh,

1:18:22 to emphasize the demographic challenges,

1:18:24 specifically in Africa,

1:18:25 which you also mentioned which have

1:18:27 big implications for the learning crisis,

1:18:29 um,

1:18:29 but I am curious to hear what.

1:18:31 The WDR team thinks about the role of education in

1:18:34 addressing some of these policy challenges that that you're raising.

1:18:37 And then my second question,

1:18:38 which I think also relates to education and skills,

1:18:40 is

1:18:41 in conceiving of what the solutions are and the

1:18:44 proposals and also thinking about how the bank works,

1:18:47 um,

1:18:48 is it the sense of the team that the solutions are

1:18:51 cross-cutting across industries or that there's a need to actually,

1:18:55 um,

1:18:55 go a level deeper and.

1:18:56 Think about solutions for,

1:18:58 for example,

1:18:58 the health sector versus the farming sector versus

1:19:01 manufacturing and that the needs and sort of,

1:19:03 uh,

1:19:04 specificities of policy design and maybe

1:19:05 this is something Munjula could actually,

1:19:07 uh,

1:19:07 speak to as well

1:19:08 are are unique to industry and we need to think,

1:19:11 uh,

1:19:11 not about policy overall but at,

1:19:13 uh,

1:19:13 industry specific interventions.

1:19:18 Thank you.

1:19:18 So Angella,

1:19:19 and then over here,

1:19:20 and then I'll turn it back to the entire panel maybe just for a final word.

1:19:24 Thank you.

1:19:25 Thanks.

1:19:26 Thanks to everyone for getting a great conversation started.

1:19:29 I'm just wondering if the team

1:19:31 would be willing to share a little bit of their

1:19:34 soundings

1:19:35 that you've got from

1:19:37 destination countries,

1:19:39 uh,

1:19:40 on the reception.

1:19:41 Uh,

1:19:42 but in particular,

1:19:43 I was sort of started thinking

1:19:46 based on the emphasis you're putting on demography,

1:19:48 which is obviously,

1:19:49 you know,

1:19:50 no question,

1:19:50 demography is

1:19:52 destiny and it's,

1:19:53 it's the big driver.

1:19:56 Um,

1:19:58 but when I've talked to,

1:20:00 I talk quite frequently to these people in the UK,

1:20:03 uh,

1:20:04 I think

1:20:05 it's called Immigration Matters,

1:20:06 and they've done a lot of work.

1:20:07 You probably know them well also.

1:20:10 One of the things I keep getting reminded from them

1:20:13 is that when it comes to sort of

1:20:15 domestically selling the idea of immigration to aging

1:20:19 societies

1:20:19 based on demography.

1:20:22 It actually scares them.

1:20:24 Uh,

1:20:24 that demography doesn't seem to be

1:20:27 a good sell,

1:20:28 even though everyone

1:20:29 sees it.

1:20:30 Um,

1:20:32 it,

1:20:32 it,

1:20:33 it gets

1:20:34 too quickly wrapped up in population replacement.

1:20:37 And so I'm curious

1:20:39 what soundings you took from there.

1:20:42 Um,

1:20:44 and then

1:20:44 I,

1:20:45 I suppose

1:20:47 related to that is the question,

1:20:49 and I think Charla,

1:20:50 you touched on this.

1:20:51 Um,

1:20:52 I was expecting to see

1:20:54 income differentials as a big driver as well.

1:20:57 You said it's

1:20:58 already an

1:20:59 empirical correlate of,

1:21:01 of aging,

1:21:01 and so maybe you'd have some sort of an

1:21:03 overdetermined model if you threw that in as well.

1:21:07 But then when I think of destination countries that have opened up to migrants.

1:21:14 It's the countries that actually got rich before they got old.

1:21:17 So think about,

1:21:19 you know,

1:21:19 I mean,

1:21:19 Malaysia,

1:21:20 GCC,

1:21:21 it wasn't demography that got them to open up their labor markets.

1:21:25 It was the fact that,

1:21:27 you know,

1:21:27 they had structural change,

1:21:29 their citizens moved away from certain types of work,

1:21:33 and they had to open up the labor market because they just got rich,

1:21:36 right?

1:21:37 So,

1:21:38 yes,

1:21:38 it's an empirical correlate,

1:21:40 but

1:21:41 is there not a separate argument

1:21:43 to be made

1:21:44 just based on wage differentials?

1:21:47 Thank you.

1:21:49 Thanks.

1:21:49 So we have 2 more interventions.

1:21:50 We have 1 here.

1:21:51 please come to the mic and then we have a hand up online,

1:21:54 and then there's 1 question in the chat.

1:21:57 So,

1:21:57 if we,

1:21:57 we are gonna go a little over,

1:21:59 we started a bit late,

1:22:00 so just fair warning unless we get told to leave the room,

1:22:03 but I don't see anybody coming through.

1:22:05 OK,

1:22:05 go ahead.

1:22:06 Yes,

1:22:06 hello,

1:22:07 thank you.

1:22:07 Uh,

1:22:08 first of all,

1:22:08 uh,

1:22:09 I'm a proud undergrad at George Mason many years ago and now with my new hat.

1:22:15 Um,

1:22:16 I know how difficult it is to

1:22:18 frame and be more,

1:22:21 uh,

1:22:21 precise and brief on the,

1:22:24 on what I would like to say

1:22:26 because I've been lately a judge

1:22:28 for PhD dissertations

1:22:30 and they only have 3 minutes to present

1:22:33 the 5 years or 6 year research.

1:22:35 So,

1:22:36 uh,

1:22:37 here I am trying to be brief,

1:22:38 um,

1:22:39 again,

1:22:40 my background is in global education.

1:22:42 And um the intention is to um

1:22:45 uh how I see is a is a lifelong learning

1:22:49 investment

1:22:50 by all means

1:22:51 in all,

1:22:52 at all levels

1:22:54 including governments,

1:22:56 including,

1:22:56 um,

1:22:57 individuals who are decision makers

1:22:59 and I agree with you,

1:23:01 Michael,

1:23:01 in the fact that you said,

1:23:03 um,

1:23:04 I would like to frame it

1:23:05 that

1:23:06 I would like to think that it's,

1:23:07 it is,

1:23:08 it's about the burden with,

1:23:09 with,

1:23:10 with most people,

1:23:11 most governments think about the burden

1:23:13 that refugees and migrants are bringing to a country

1:23:16 rather than the benefit of it.

1:23:19 And why is that?

1:23:20 Because

1:23:21 we fail

1:23:22 to assess,

1:23:24 make a proper assessment of the knowledge,

1:23:27 skills and abilities that they have,

1:23:29 uh,

1:23:29 that they can bring

1:23:31 to,

1:23:31 uh,

1:23:32 to the table.

1:23:33 Uh,

1:23:34 and I,

1:23:34 I truly believe on that because it's not just

1:23:37 next stamp,

1:23:39 next stamp,

1:23:40 and come in and,

1:23:41 uh,

1:23:41 and that's about it,

1:23:43 so it should be a journey,

1:23:44 it should be,

1:23:45 uh,

1:23:45 again a lifelong learning investment

1:23:48 and,

1:23:48 uh,

1:23:48 following up on with them,

1:23:50 so,

1:23:51 um.

1:23:52 The question I have is related to that,

1:23:55 you know,

1:23:56 where are we in assessing those individuals,

1:23:59 not,

1:23:59 uh,

1:24:00 globally,

1:24:00 because,

1:24:01 you know,

1:24:01 refugee situation,

1:24:02 as you,

1:24:03 you know,

1:24:03 clearly explained,

1:24:04 uh,

1:24:05 happens everywhere,

1:24:06 right?

1:24:07 So are we good at that?

1:24:08 Are we good assessing on those individuals and,

1:24:11 uh,

1:24:12 and then being able to

1:24:14 perhaps

1:24:15 Corporations,

1:24:16 organizations be able to identify those 100-200 people that have certain skills,

1:24:21 be able to place them

1:24:23 within the X industries

1:24:26 accordingly.

1:24:27 So

1:24:27 that's my question.

1:24:28 Thank you.

1:24:30 Thanks.

1:24:30 OK,

1:24:30 so we have the two questions.

1:24:32 Um,

1:24:32 Norman,

1:24:33 do you want to come in

1:24:34 and ask your question?

1:24:40 We can't hear you.

1:24:44 Sorry,

1:24:44 Norman,

1:24:44 we can't hear you.

1:24:45 I,

1:24:45 I see you unmuted,

1:24:47 but we still can't hear you.

1:24:51 OK,

1:24:51 I'm just gonna quickly read the question we got from YouTube,

1:24:53 just to put it in the mix.

1:24:56 Which is,

1:24:56 I want to ask the panel if there are any data on the return rate of settled refugees

1:25:01 slash previously forced displaced

1:25:03 from adopted countries to countries

1:25:06 regions of origin.

1:25:07 I guess the return rate question.

1:25:09 We've touched on this before,

1:25:10 but

1:25:11 OK,

1:25:12 Norman,

1:25:12 back to you.

1:25:19 OK,

1:25:19 we still can't hear you,

1:25:20 Norman.

1:25:20 So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna read the question that you actually posted

1:25:22 in the chat and then hopefully that was the same question you wanted to ask,

1:25:26 which is that,

1:25:26 are you not concerned that government measures that

1:25:28 increase human capital without improving the business environment

1:25:31 will lead to brain drain?

1:25:34 OK,

1:25:35 so what I'm gonna do now is I'm gonna ask the two of you

1:25:37 to respond sort of generally and then I'll give the last word to,

1:25:41 to,

1:25:41 to you too.

1:25:43 So I think a lot of questions are,

1:25:45 are on the next step which is the operationalization of the DBDR.

1:25:49 How do we do concretely

1:25:51 and,

1:25:51 and this,

1:25:51 I think,

1:25:52 uh,

1:25:52 we are not at that stage yet and,

1:25:54 and you will be called into,

1:25:56 uh,

1:25:56 contributing to

1:25:58 formulating how

1:25:59 we are putting this in practice and,

1:26:01 and in fact we'll obviously have also a,

1:26:03 uh,

1:26:03 uh,

1:26:04 a leading role there.

1:26:05 So I,

1:26:05 I'm going to,

1:26:06 to postpone those discussions maybe for,

1:26:08 for when we have more concrete policies.

1:26:11 I'd like to take Manjula's question about the,

1:26:13 the,

1:26:14 the,

1:26:14 the uh

1:26:15 migration and demography.

1:26:17 I think everything is about.

1:26:19 Opportunity cost of labor and I think if the opportunity cost of labor

1:26:23 for the for the natives is driven by increased incomes because people are richer

1:26:28 and then

1:26:29 uh

1:26:30 or is because there are fewer people,

1:26:31 I think those two

1:26:33 forces will be at play.

1:26:35 I'm just going to give you one word in Portugal last week

1:26:38 in the opening remark,

1:26:39 the minister in of uh in charge of the migration said

1:26:43 Portugal is going through a demographic winter.

1:26:47 And so this realization from politicians I think is is is becoming salient

1:26:51 in some countries

1:26:53 and I think that's uh that's very uh

1:26:57 uh salient in many of those countries,

1:26:59 especially

1:27:00 as we've seen in the Southern European countries.

1:27:06 Thank you all for the the the questions,

1:27:08 uh.

1:27:09 I'll start with the education.

1:27:12 I do not,

1:27:13 I'm not an education expert,

1:27:14 so I don't know the details,

1:27:15 but the way I'm interpreting it

1:27:17 should be focused on sectoral or occupational focus,

1:27:19 right?

1:27:20 I do not know the answer,

1:27:22 but all I know is you have to

1:27:24 provide skills

1:27:26 and in fact knows it again better than me I apologize if I'm saying something wrong,

1:27:30 but skills that are in global demand.

1:27:33 Right,

1:27:33 that's what it has to be,

1:27:34 and it's important.

1:27:35 The question is not about educating the people after they migrate,

1:27:39 the refugees or the migrants.

1:27:40 You have to

1:27:41 educate

1:27:42 everybody.

1:27:43 Right before they migrate,

1:27:45 so potential migrants

1:27:47 and you have to improve the human capital level across the board

1:27:50 and generally

1:27:52 I'm

1:27:52 again I don't have any

1:27:54 empirical evidence on this,

1:27:55 but my

1:27:56 reading of The Economist weekly

1:27:58 tells me that the skills that are in demand in

1:28:00 a country are almost the same skills that are demanded globally

1:28:04 right once you address it,

1:28:05 it's not,

1:28:05 uh,

1:28:06 so that that's what it is you just have to improve

1:28:09 globally demanded skills

1:28:11 now

1:28:12 your question on.

1:28:13 Uh,

1:28:14 Manjulo on income differentials,

1:28:18 I still think it's the,

1:28:19 the most important one.

1:28:20 It's just we didn't spend that much time in the reports

1:28:22 or here because the evidence on that one is well established,

1:28:25 right?

1:28:26 There's

1:28:26 tons of fighting on the 200 pages.

1:28:28 How we're gonna allocate

1:28:30 income differentials as the main motivator of the welfare differences obviously.

1:28:33 The most important one,

1:28:35 but we wanted to emphasize,

1:28:36 say,

1:28:36 demography,

1:28:37 climate change,

1:28:38 all these other ones because there's well less known and more of an

1:28:42 inflection point that we're at a at a transition point.

1:28:44 Um,

1:28:45 we're not trying to deny the importance of

1:28:47 income differentials.

1:28:49 Return rate of refugees.

1:28:52 I'm sure it's,

1:28:53 it's tricky because if they're naturalized and they return back,

1:28:56 so

1:28:57 refugee status is also a flow issue,

1:29:00 right?

1:29:00 Your refugee status

1:29:02 changes.

1:29:03 That's 5%,

1:29:04 1 quarter of the refugees are in high income and three quarters on low income

1:29:08 actually

1:29:09 hides the fact a lot of the people with refugee

1:29:12 background has always been nat has already been naturalized,

1:29:15 right?

1:29:15 The share

1:29:16 is probably slightly more evenly distributed,

1:29:18 but how many of them returned.

1:29:21 I,

1:29:21 I do not know.

1:29:23 Uh,

1:29:23 there is some return data of the people in the United States

1:29:27 who go back

1:29:28 and,

1:29:28 and then you have to then figure out

1:29:30 their refugee status,

1:29:31 but

1:29:32 nothing systematic

1:29:34 and final

1:29:35 question on

1:29:36 why burden versus benefit.

1:29:38 I mean there's an

1:29:39 emerging literature,

1:29:41 a lot of it actually comes from maybe psychology,

1:29:43 sociology,

1:29:43 and all that stuff,

1:29:44 but one number I wanna emphasize again

1:29:47 is remember 50% of the foreign born are

1:29:50 almost 50% have been naturalized in high income countries.

1:29:54 I refuse to believe high income

1:29:56 country policymakers are stupid enough to naturalize people

1:29:59 whom they think is not a good match,

1:30:01 is not gonna add value,

1:30:03 but there's a,

1:30:04 there's a reason why the focus is on.

1:30:07 The bad side,

1:30:08 not the good side.

1:30:10 Maybe it's human

1:30:12 cognitive biases,

1:30:13 but one thing I'm convinced of migration,

1:30:16 the benefits

1:30:17 are longer term.

1:30:19 and are more diffuse.

1:30:21 Whereas the costs

1:30:23 are more short term

1:30:24 and more concentrated and observed,

1:30:27 and that creates the political bias

1:30:29 and we added with the short term myopism of the policymakers,

1:30:33 no policy politician

1:30:34 who's worried about the election next year is

1:30:37 gonna think about 30 years down the road.

1:30:38 I think

1:30:39 when these two forces are combined,

1:30:41 we get the current political impasse or the polarization on migration.

1:30:47 Thanks.

1:30:47 So,

1:30:48 last word to the discussions,

1:30:49 Michael,

1:30:49 first,

1:30:50 and any thoughts?

1:30:53 Thank you,

1:30:54 um.

1:30:56 When I first interned at the bank,

1:30:58 we had an orientation and the director of communications ran

1:31:00 it and one of the first things he said was

1:31:03 that the founding purpose of the

1:31:04 World Bank was fundamentally communist containment,

1:31:07 and it,

1:31:07 it really struck me at the time.

1:31:08 I've never heard anybody say it,

1:31:10 and I,

1:31:10 I thought it was kind of saying the quiet part out loud until I found a,

1:31:14 a 1952 foreign affairs article where Eugene Black had

1:31:17 basically said exactly that.

1:31:19 That,

1:31:19 uh,

1:31:20 the,

1:31:20 uh,

1:31:20 uh,

1:31:21 a,

1:31:21 a,

1:31:21 the core purpose of World Bank was to was to keep the free world free

1:31:25 what my dad's generation would call the free world,

1:31:28 um.

1:31:29 What

1:31:30 one

1:31:32 my way of interpreting what Aar and Tan are trying to teach us is that

1:31:36 there's a,

1:31:36 there's a different division of the world now.

1:31:39 The,

1:31:39 the,

1:31:39 the free world,

1:31:40 unfree world,

1:31:41 uh,

1:31:42 is gone with my father's generation.

1:31:44 Uh,

1:31:44 not many people are comfortable talking

1:31:46 about developed and developing countries anymore,

1:31:48 but there is a fundamental division of the world this century,

1:31:52 and it's that there are parts where

1:31:54 the,

1:31:55 the workforce is growing,

1:31:56 and there are parts where the workforce is shrinking.

1:31:59 And as Chaler pointed out,

1:32:00 it's unprecedented,

1:32:01 it's huge,

1:32:02 it's going to shape this century

1:32:04 and

1:32:05 just as the world in 1946 looked at the system of development finance and asked,

1:32:10 is this apt for a world that is divided

1:32:12 into the North Atlantic sphere and the Soviet sphere

1:32:14 and decided to

1:32:15 innovate institutionally and create this place.

1:32:19 We really need to look at bank operations and ask if

1:32:22 if

1:32:23 if the existing windows if the existing chains of command if the existing

1:32:27 allocations of resources of the existing priorities for research are apt to,

1:32:32 to,

1:32:32 to this world where there's a part,

1:32:35 uh,

1:32:36 where the workforce is shrinking,

1:32:37 there's a part where it's growing and a and a vast

1:32:40 gap in political feasibility skills and many of

1:32:43 the other things that the that the bank is

1:32:45 maybe the single organization that is best placed to invest in.

1:32:49 And

1:32:50 I,

1:32:50 I think if we do that,

1:32:51 it will result in,

1:32:52 in a,

1:32:53 in a better bank and an even more relevant bank.

1:32:58 So just two points.

1:32:59 Uh,

1:33:00 one responding to,

1:33:01 I think what Manjulo was saying,

1:33:03 but linking it to what Norman was saying about the role of um.

1:33:06 Uh,

1:33:07 private sector,

1:33:08 really,

1:33:08 I think it's something that I,

1:33:09 I,

1:33:09 I didn't,

1:33:10 uh,

1:33:10 get a chance to mention,

1:33:11 but I think that's gonna be critical

1:33:13 also in terms of looking at the kind of demands,

1:33:16 uh,

1:33:16 that you will have in,

1:33:17 in destination countries.

1:33:18 So I think it's,

1:33:19 you know,

1:33:19 the,

1:33:20 the,

1:33:21 the my point about

1:33:22 investing in human capital so that you're able to utilize it,

1:33:25 um,

1:33:26 uh,

1:33:26 and increase the productivity of your working age

1:33:29 precisely has this,

1:33:30 you know,

1:33:31 it will need better private sector,

1:33:33 better business environment in domestic

1:33:35 in,

1:33:35 in,

1:33:35 in.

1:33:36 Origin countries but also in in in destination countries because

1:33:38 they will have a role to play in terms of

1:33:41 getting the right skills in place that is demanded for wherever it is,

1:33:44 you know,

1:33:44 um,

1:33:45 in the in the domestic,

1:33:46 uh,

1:33:46 markets or,

1:33:47 or,

1:33:47 um,

1:33:48 overseas markets

1:33:49 because ultimately that will help with what Chala you're seeing that what

1:33:52 you want ultimately the goal is to have more voluntary migration right?

1:33:55 and so the choice

1:33:57 that you have whether you want to migrate because there is an opportunity

1:34:00 there's a wage differential modular that you want that will make your life better

1:34:03 versus,

1:34:04 you know,

1:34:04 the choice about.

1:34:05 Staying at home

1:34:06 if you have a,

1:34:07 if you have a decent job that allows you to

1:34:10 stay at home and you're OK with it,

1:34:11 then is it that you bring the choice element and I think their

1:34:14 private sector and,

1:34:15 and the business environment,

1:34:16 all of that becomes very,

1:34:17 very important,

1:34:18 um,

1:34:18 my and my last point is,

1:34:19 is,

1:34:20 is,

1:34:20 you know,

1:34:20 to

1:34:21 if,

1:34:21 if we,

1:34:22 you know,

1:34:22 one of the main things that I hope the WDR will help us do with this conversation is,

1:34:28 is this recognition

1:34:30 that migrants

1:34:31 are not a liability but an asset and

1:34:34 they are.

1:34:34 Engines of growth,

1:34:36 um,

1:34:36 uh,

1:34:37 whether they're a returning migrant or uh

1:34:39 uh uh a current migrant and I think hopefully

1:34:42 that sort of

1:34:43 sort of change in mindset

1:34:45 can help us move this this more constructive conversations

1:34:48 about what are the right policies whether it's globally

1:34:50 domestically in in overseas labor markets,

1:34:53 um,

1:34:53 so I hope I hope that's that's my hope and and and and I hope that we can work together

1:34:58 to sort of help

1:34:59 push this narrative forward and,

1:35:01 and have these uh conversations

1:35:03 thank you.

1:35:05 Well,

1:35:05 thanks everyone and thank you especially to the entire panel.

1:35:08 Please

1:35:09 join

1:35:11 me in the panel.

1:35:12 Uh,

1:35:13 with that,

1:35:13 I think I'm gonna call this to an end.

1:35:14 One program note,

1:35:15 our policy research talk series is going on at summer hiatus,

1:35:18 so we look forward to seeing you back here in,

1:35:21 in September.

1:35:22 But,

1:35:22 uh,

1:35:22 with that,

1:35:23 thank you everyone.

showAllTimestamps

no

transcript

OK, I think we can probably get started. Thank you everybody for joining us today. Uh, a few people will probably still trickle in, but that's OK. They, they'll just miss me and that's not the highlight of the, of, of the event. Um, so welcome everyone to this, uh, June edition of our policy research talk series. Um, as many of you know, these provide, um, an opportunity for us in the Development Research group to share research that's coming out of, of the, the, the group, uh, with Colleagues, frankly inside the Development Research Group, outside uh in the rest of the bank and beyond. Um, so it's a very, uh very important event for us. Um, I also want to, uh, welcome the audience on Webex and YouTube, um, and especially those of you who were able to make it here today in person. Um, today, I'm pleased to introduce my colleagues, Tuan Do and Chala uh Osden, two of the co-directors of this year's World Development Report, uh, which has the title, as you can see on the screen, Migrants, Refugees and Societies. Uh, Tuan is a lead economist in the development research group who focuses on topics related to fragility, conflict, and violence, um, with a, with an emphasis on, uh, conflict crime and forced displacement. Chala is uh also a lead economist in the development research group, uh, who focuses on the nexus of globalization of products and labor markets. Um, this edition of the WDR comes at a crucial time as the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change. Migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income. The WDR proposes an integrated framework to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries and on migrants and refugees themselves. I'm especially happy to welcome our two discussants today, uh, Michael Clemens and Ifa Sharif. Michael is a professor in the Development Department of Economics at George Mason University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I got that right. IAT uh is a manager of the Human Capital Project. And the incoming global director. Incoming meaning as of tomorrow. For, uh, uh, for the social protection and jobs global practice. Um I'll start by asking Tuan and Chala to talk for approximately 40 minutes together, after which we'll hear from Michael and Ifa for approximately 5 to 10 minutes each. Uh, we'll conclude the session with Q&A from the audience. Um, if you have a question, if you're following online, if you have a question, please raise your hand in the, in the, in, and, uh, or signal to me in the chat that you have a question and I'll call on you. If you're following on YouTube, please, uh, put, put your submit your question in the chat and that'll get rela relayed to me. Um, also a reminder to everybody, we are recording the session. Uh, if you're following online, please mute, uh, when you're not speaking. So with that and without any further ado, over to you, Tuan. Uh, thank you very much, Dion, and, uh, welcome everybody. Uh, I'd like to thank you on behalf of, of the entire team to, uh, to come and listen to us. I think we're in the midst of dissemination, um, between, uh, Charles Xavier, who is the other co-director, and Joyce. We've been covering roughly 30 to 40 countries by now, and we still have a long list to go. So what I'd like to do today. Uh, is to go over basically what we are, what we are presenting during our dissemination, but since it's a policy research talk and we're talking for 40 minutes and not just 10 or 12 minutes, go a little bit, a bit deeper into, uh, the economics of, of, of the report and, and the evidence and so on and so forth, so I will. Uh, I will come. I will, I will cover the more theoretical part of it, and, and Shara will discuss what the empirics of what we have in the report and what are the, the, the gaps that need to be filled, uh, in the future. So, before moving forward, I'd like to acknowledge that this is the work of a big team, and, and some of them are here, uh, in the room, uh, as I mentioned, Xavier de Victor in the SC Group was the co-director of this, the 3rd. Uh, person and people from across the, the, the bank, uh, from the different regions and different practices from SPG poverty. Uh, and the climate group, uh, and, and so on and so forth, um, I'd like to thank, you know, Art, who is also in this room who has been, uh, uh, working with us to make sure, uh, the, the, the process runs smoothly and, and, and, uh, the messaging and the discussion within, within the bank also run as smoothly as possible. We were assisted by 22 panels, and an academic panel, uh, and Michael here was, was part of that panel and a high level advisory panel. Consisting of uh uh officials in in uh in uh different countries but also representative of the UNHCR. IOM, ILO and civil society. So that's the, the, the outcome of almost 18 months of work that, that, uh, I, I have the pleasure to present to you today. So I'm going to go straight into the meat of, of the discussion. I think that the report has one aspect which is bringing stylized facts like any paper. I have stylized facts. What do we know? What are the numbers. And then takes a little bit of a uh a prospective view about what do we think migration will look like tomorrow before we get into what's the evidence, what are the policies, and so on and so forth. So if we define a migrant as a person who doesn't have the citizenship of the countries they reside in and for those who who work in this space, you will notice that this is a definition that is not often uh used otherwise we're talking about 184 million migrants and refugees across the world, which is roughly 22.5% of the world population. So on the left you have this distribution of. Migrants, where they are coming from and when they are going. And I'd like you to take, uh, 3 main messages out of this slide. One is migration is not just a south to north phenomenon. There's a big chunk of it that is south to south migration. So outlying countries, developing countries, middle income countries are also countries that are, uh, destination countries for, uh, uh, a large part of the migrants. Especially when we talk about forced displacement, 3/4 are forcibly displaced or in low income or middle income countries. That's 0.1 and 2. And the second point that I'd like to highlight is there's no such thing as a sending country and origin sending origin country and a destination country, but a lot of countries, or most countries of both of those. They receive migrants and they send migrants. Migrants are emigrating and some migrants are immigrating in those countries, indicating that the issues of, of migration policy, uh, becomes much more, uh, uh, intricated when, when we think about, uh, migration as a whole, whether it's the UK, whether it's Turkey, whether it's Nigeria, they have significant amount of people who are coming into that territory and leave that territory. So first, uh, uh, slide that that is summarizing quickly. The, uh, the, the, the state of, of, of affairs. A second point that we're moving forward to is what do we think about migration tomorrow. So we wanted to point out what are the key factors that are going are likely to reshape or shape the trends in migration for tomorrow, and we identified two of those factors, one being demography and the second one being climate change. So when we look at demography and here you have the the age pyramids of three types of countries, on the top row you have the typical high income countries, Italy being given as an example. In the middle row, a middle income country, high middle income country, middle income country, and here we are giving you Mexico as an example, and at the top, a low and lower middle income countries such as Nigeria. The left column is the H pyramid in 1950. The middle column, the H pyramid today, and the the right column being the H pyramid in 2050. So just a small remark in terms of we are projecting only in 2050 because the actors of the demography of tomorrow, most of them are born today, which allows us to give quite confidence in terms of what we think about the demography of tomorrow. So just a little bit of interpretation, Italy is aging quite fast, and we have what demographers call the inversion of their age pyramid, where the top is larger than the base. And to give you some numbers around this, the population of Italy, if it's 60 million today, will turn 30 million at the end of the century. If you look at South Korea, 1 adult out of 61 person out of 6 is aged 80 and above, which gives you the sense of not only there will be an aging population, which means fewer workers relative to population, but there's also a change in the demand given that the size of the elderly population is going to increase. In between, if you look at most middle income countries, they have engaged, they have entered already their demographic transition, and they're doing it at a very high pace, so they're coming from a very young country into aging country and this. Uh, quite quickly, as the example of Mexico shows, and the challenge for those countries is not only will they start to become increasingly moving from sending countries, but they're also going to receive migrants in the near future. That is going to be the challenge of countries that sees themselves as immigration countries as how to manage the fact that they are increasingly going to become receiving countries. The challenge is how do they become rich. Before they become old. Finally, in the bottom countries are countries typical of, uh, that have a typical exploding population that are going to remain young uh through the middle of the century, including Nigeria, uh, ***, Afghanistan, Somalia are, are examples of those. So one demography is going to reshape global labor markets, and I think that is going to be one of the big. Uh, uh, uh, issue that we want to look into is how can we today, before the global labor markets change dramatically, what can we do today in order to prepare for that, uh, uh, reshuffling of global labor markets. Climate change being the, the, the other part which is going to exacerbate the existing trends, the effect of climate change goes through declining incomes, declining labor productivity, and especially, uh, in rural areas, but it will also going to be a threat to the habitability of places. So if today. uh, we have most of the evidence on on displacement is at short distances, meaning within countries or in neighboring countries. What will happen tomorrow is going still to be, um, uh, in terms of transborder movement, still a question mark. It will depend on the collective ability of the world to mitigate the effect of climate change, the incidence of climate change. Second, individual ability of countries to adapt to climate change, in particular. How adaptation to decrease labor productivity, how adaptation, how cities are going to be adapt to, to be able to adapt to an increased rural to urban migration. And third, cross-border movements will be regulated and so how the world adapts as a whole to the increased incidence of labor movement. These are the, the, the question marks that, uh, uh, we would like to raise in order to, to see what, uh, climate change is going to bring in terms of cross-border migration. So just give you the the the some statized facts, some, some, some data and, and, and trends to give you the context, and the next step that I'd like to talk to is what we believe is uh uh a decision tool, an ethical framework that allows us to understand that all migration does not need to be, doesn't have to be seen as the same phenomenon. The objectives are different. The policy trade-offs are different and hence the policies are different and that's what we coined after a lot of discussion, uh, the match and motive metrics. You will, you will notice the alliteration here. So first, what we want to combine is is combining two different views of of migration. The 1st 11 is an economic perspective which is driven by a cost-benefit analysis when we take the view of the destination countries is the labor contribution larger than integration costs in a sense, very cost benefit from from the viewpoint of the receiving countries. And if we look at what it means from an economic standpoint is we want to realize that there are imperfect labor markets in destination countries, that there are distributional implications for migration. That there are integration costs that not internalized when we look at wages, uh, on, uh, prevailing market wages, and there's also misallocation of, of, of, uh, of factors and therefore we can think of migration policies enacted by destination countries as one tool to regulate an imperfect international labor markets. So why don't we open borders because markets are not perfect because there are distribution implications because of integration costs. So one perspective is the rationale for uh uh migration policy is uh the realization that uh free movement of, of labor has issues related to imperfect labor markets. The second angle that we want to bring in is one of international law. It has been recognized since the end of World War II that some people need international protection. This is a refugee convention of 1951 where if someone moves out of a legitimate fear for their physical integrity, there is a duty for countries to host them. And the international protection is targeted at those people with legitimate fear of origin, and they are designated as refugees and in order to provide because this has a global public good component to it, there is a fundamental collective action problem in terms of provision of that public good. And hence the architecture of the convention has two clauses, which is non-refoulement, which is a country that has a refugee will not send the refu refugee back to the country of origin if they have a fear of persecution or fear of violence, and at the same time will not penalize illegal entry for that same reason. So those two views, one which is an economic maximization exercise, economic, broadly speaking, maximization exercise, and one driven by international law, responsibility of providing intersection gives the two rationales for migration that we bring into the same framework that we coined the match and motive matrix. So if you look at the the vertical axis, the vertical axis that indicates the strength of the match for the migrants vis a vis the destination country, and the horizontal axis captures the motive, meaning what is the scope for international protection, whether the the the movement is driven by fear at the country of origin or more towards looking for opportunities at destination. And so that matrix defines more or less 4, more or less exactly 4 quadrants that not only describes different types of movements but those different types of movements call for different policy trade-offs for destination countries and for different. Policies, so you have on the top most of the refugees go because there's a strong match on the labor market and little uh fear at the origin. On the other extreme, the bottom right quadrants of most of many refugees that leave due to the fear at origin. But have little uh contribution to be brought on the labor market. On the other extreme, on the other hand, on the top right are the refugees that have productive productive skills to be put to use, and the bottom left are what we call the distressed migrants who do not qualify for international protection but at the same time have digital skills to bring to the society of destination and 4 categories 4 per objective function. For policy trade-offs, for policies to address those issues. So when the match is strong, which is basically when the labor contribution, the case is maximizing. The gains for all and how do we do that and what is the main message we want to convey here is that if there are labor market imperfections is use alternative instruments in order to address those uh uh downsides of migration. Don't use migration as a sole policy instrument to regulate those issues, in particular, if you look at countries of the of origin that you have on the green and small font. But the idea is to lower transaction costs whether it's about sending remittances back, whether it's having knowledge pillowers back home, or address other labor market imperfections. When we talk about brain drain, it's about the labor market infection associated with skill complementarity. On the other hand, when we look at country of destination, it's, oh sorry. It's all about improving labor market efficiency. It's about providing rights and access to labor markets so that the productivity is associated is put uh to fruition but also facilitate inclusion to fight discrimination and because there are potential uh distribution implications. Support the affected nationals that on the labor markets could be displaced by uh migrant labor, although empirically let me emphasize here again the evidence that there is a large effect on wages unemployment are very scant and and very specific to uh uh uh some type of movements. When the, the match is weaker but is driven by fear, the issue is not anymore a matter of maximizing any efficiency, any efficiency, but to ensure the sustainability of the system and share the cost. Once again, there is a public good component to it. Public good means that there is also a shared responsibility, and how can we design mechanisms to share the costs becomes the first order issue. So in order to reduce the cost, one realization is once a refugee. Is given protection. They become an agent of development and therefore a way not only to bring the dignity to bring the the to satisfy the aspiration of the refugees, increasing the productivity is also a way to lower the cost. The example that that we often cite is an example for Colombia and the policies toward Venezuelan refugees is to give access very quickly to labor market to allow mobility within the country and to integrate social services into. Their national services. So here the red arrow shows that there is endogeneity. There is possibility for policies to increase the match of refugees toward the labor market, and you can see it. The obvious way to to think about this is language training that is given to a lot of refugees in many settings so that they can integrate better not only in labor markets but in society. In general. And then the last category that I'd like to focus on is when the category of distressed migrants where the main policy objective is. To reduce the need for such movements or to and to absorb or return the migrants humanely. And so 11 thing that we want to, uh, one aspect we want to think about is first, as I mentioned before, the refugee status we, we can think of and, and since IAT is here, we can think of as as as a targeting mechanism is people in need for international protection. We define refugees as people fearing for violence and conflict at home, and as in any targeting mechanism, there are some false negatives. So to speak, and the idea is for some of them there's a scope for extending protection. And extending protection is, for example, the case of the US extending granting temporary protection to Haitians, for example. So recognizing that they do not fit in the category of refugees, but the need for international protection still persists and the need to find additional instruments to provide the needed protection. And on the on the other hand, realizing that as I mentioned before market forces might be too strong, then the policy space under which we are is how do we change the incentives to migrate at origin is providing alternative to alternative to migration by strengthening the skills of providing. Uh, increasing the resilience of populations to shocks to climate change so that transborder migration doesn't doesn't end up being the only solution towards, uh, uh, adaptation to the changing environment and that destination, the, the, the substitution is not only, uh, between migrating and migrating, but it's also what pathways to choose. So increasing the number of legal pathways as a substitutes towards disorderly migration, disorderly. Irregular migration. So here the idea is those policies are likely also by selection increase the match, increase the, the, the, the match of the, the, the ones that will end up migrating. So here you have it if you want the, the theoretical framework that is guiding the entire. Discussion we have in the report and that leads us to the key messages. I'm not going to spend too much time because Chala is going to, to, to go over them with much more uh empirical uh substance, but basically about first highlighting that migration is necessary not only for as viewed by developing low income and middle income countries but for all countries at all levels of income. And then depending on where you where you stand on that match and motive metrics, the trade-offs are different, the messages are different, and the policy instruments are different, involving bilateral cooperation, international cooperation. I'll, uh, so I'll, I'll leave this here while we're doing the transition, but Chala will have ample opportunity to, uh, get back to those. Thank you, Joan. I think this is OK, working. Now, uh, two things. I want to also express my thanks to everybody, uh, in this room who, um, the, the most impressive part of the WDR for me. was literally it shows the best of the bank. Hundreds of people touched the WDR in the process, whether they are direct chapter authors or discussions, critics, the people, editors who did a lot of work because you have 3 non-native speakers writing this, so I greatly appreciate all of that. Now what I want to do is the following. The, the framework you saw, it might come out simple and smooth, but it was actually, you know, the example they give of the sausages. You don't want to ask how it was created. And there was a lot of discussion uh in the background within the team. Unfortunately, RTA was exposed to a lot of it, and, uh, but the other important impressive thing to me about the WEDR and a lot of the credit goes to Tan on this, there are 120 pages of references, right? We cited the heck out of everything we say in the report. Uh, so what I'm going to talk about now is actually The framework you saw, what is the empirical evidence that supports this framework, but also, since this is a policy research talk, what the gaps are, what we do not know, uh, which goes against when we did our media training, admitting what you don't know to an audience, but anyway, here it is, so. The first thing, as Toan mentioned, 184 million migrants, and we define it based on citizenship. This actually goes counter to a lot of other data sets, including the stuff we have done in the bank, because it's based on place of birth. The reason for place of birth is actually the ease of data. That's how the data are collected and disseminated by a lot of agencies and the OECD UN, so on and so forth. But why do we talk about citizenship? Not place of birth because the WDR, the framework is about the rights you have, right? Remember what the framework is saying. Where you are is, is, is, is, there's a continuous space where each individual migrant is, and where you are actually depends on the destination country you're at. I might be a better match in the US as opposed to, let's say the UK. The policies determine where you are, so there's that kind of there's heterogenated and there's endogeneity, and because of the policies, it impacts who decides to migrate to that destination, right? So the legal status is critical. 184 million people, 43% in low and middle income countries, 40% in high income, 17% in GCC. There's a reason why we're separating GCC because of the legal status they grant to the migrants. Uh, if you compare place of birth and place of citizenship, this is what you get, right? The GCC, everybody, that's the easiest case. They don't give citizenship to anybody, so you're there. The most important one is the high income countries. Almost half the foreign born in high income countries are already naturalized, right? That is a huge number. It tells you something about, uh, the migration process and because this is a status thing, it is a. Citizenship is a flow issue, whereas place of birth is a stock issue. In most likelihood, the, the rest of the people, a big chunk of them will be naturalized eventually, right? Now, I didn't mean to do this, but so when you look at it, you see how the distribution changes, right, where the, the, the migrants are, but the most important thing again, I want to emphasize, even when you look at the non-citizens, the legal status, there's huge heterogeneity. You have people who are undocumented, you have people who are on a temporary visa or a permanent visa, and then people who are residents, right? People who have eligibility for citizenship versus do not. So all of those things matter and. It is important that we collect the data accordingly and because that determines the impact, right? We're not just saying the citizenship number is different and we want to come up with a different number, but because it is important, your legal status determines where you are in that box, right? That's point number 1. Now, point number 2, Tuan talked about the, the determinants. You want to get back to it. Uh, if you look at the literature, the vast majority of the literature looks at the wage gaps or welfare gaps as determinants. What we want to say, what we're seeing in the WDR is we are at an inflection point because of demography. And demographic, everybody knows what's happening in Western Europe. Italy was given an example that's not, you know, it is unique. It's unique in human history. It is the first time in human history you're seeing peaceful population decline, not because of an epidemic, natural disaster, or a war. It is happening because people are deciding not to have children, right? We know what's happening in low income countries. That's also well known. I mean, everybody in Europe, Japan, Korea knows what's happening, high income, but what is as unique as that inversion of the. The pyramid in high income countries is what's happening in middle income countries, that the fertility decline is so rapid within basically 60 years or 50 years in two generations, the fertility rate in all these countries went from between 5 and 6% to replacement. Again, it took over 200 years for this to happen in North America and Western Europe. In the same time frame, the income levels in North America and Western Europe went up maybe 25 times. In India, it went up 2.5 times. Not only that, that this rapid decline is happening, it has huge other implications, but these are also the countries that send the migrants to the high income countries. The vast majority of the migrants, economic migrants, are middle income people from middle income countries, so this is going to change the dynamic. The demand is increasing in high income, the supply is increasing in the low income. The middle income is shifting to a demander from a supplier, but the problem is the match is also going to get worse. Now the low-income countries don't have the education capacity, human capital creation capacity as the middle-income countries in terms of providing the, the labor, the needed in high income. So that is one of the inflection points. What has happened in the last 6 years is likely to change. Conflict and violence, we are increasing some sharp increase, but the big distinction again the middle income countries, the last three crises Venezuela, Syria, and Ukraine are middle income countries, and the But it means the people coming from these countries are more educated, more human capital, and more financial resources to travel further, so the impact is felt in a wider range of countries. Now, Tuan talked about climate change, what it means. The big unknown is there that are we at an, at an inflection point. It's not the unknown is not about the science. The unknown is about the impact, how it is gonna spill over to the rest of the world. Climate-induced mobility has been contained domestically in the vast majority of cases, but if, uh, if the whole country is now impacted like Bangladesh, what does it mean? Right? Internal mobility is not gonna be enough to account for it, right? So, bringing all of these together, I always say this is one of my favorite figures in the map, in the, in the WDR, these 4 maps based on the four motivations. What it shows these maps, the high degree of correlation. Right? The correlation actually probably implies causation. All these forces. Are leading, especially fertility decline, demographic change, climate change, and conflict and violence probably are likely to lead to increased distressed and forced migration, and, and this is the big development challenge, so we cannot address one at a time, and the difficult types of mobility we see are kind of the symptoms of the underlying development challenges reflected in this map. I already said what I was going to say. The 4 boxes of the framework. Probably they are all interlinked, and they are impacted by these linkages. Origin countries, quickly, one of the other important things we see in the WDR is the following. Almost every migration pattern we see today is shaped by the policies of the destination countries, and it's unilateral. This doesn't, this shouldn't be the case. It is inefficient. There's a huge responsibility that falls on the shoulders of the origin countries, right? What has to happen, different components of their immigration-related policies, they have to be part of an integrated policy agenda for development. What we mean, I'm going to give a couple of examples. I'm sorry, I'm talking really fast because I just came from Italy, so I got used to speaking fast. All right, remember the four boxes, the heterogeneity and the endogeneity of the policies. The origin countries, what they have to do is to help their citizens before they migrate, while they're abroad, after they return, all these different things. Example, one of the big things, and Michael contributed to this, is the migration hump, everybody, most of you have seen it, that actually as the income level changes, this is the impact or the observation of the immigration rate. We did something simple in the WDR. If you split the countries by size, you get a huge difference. What does it imply then this is one of the unknowns, especially the linkage between mobility and development, right? And it actually gets more interesting. Because that increase, what you see happens to high-income countries because as a country develops, income levels go up, the human capital level, the education level goes up, so the selection effect kicks in. The more educated you are, the more likely you are to, this is the, the, the, your right-hand graph, right? How the migration patterns change. Uh And if you look at more of a time series pattern, this is what you observe. So this is a big Point that requires to be much more delved into brain drain. This is what motivates it. Pretty much every country on the planet, migrants are more educated than the underlying population. The implications for the labor market depends on how many highly skilled people you have and what shortages it leads to. Again, the actual empirical evidence is kind of scant there, although if you look at the policymakers in a lot of the smaller isolated economies, this comes across as one of their biggest concerns related to immigration. Again, the evidence is scant, uh, but this is one point where the education policy has to be a critical component of the overall immigration policy. In, in other words, your, uh, education policy, your supply of human capital has to respond to immigration opportunities. It has to be, uh, upward sloping. All right. Other next one, you see, the Mexico-US corridor is the largest corridor in the world. With millions and millions of people, but uh, you see the uneven distribution within Mexico where the immigrants come from. This has huge implications for the Mexican labor market as well as for the provision of public goods, so on and so forth. So, anytime, uh, the origin country designs a policy, you have to take this internal heterogeneity, internal distributional impacts into account, right? Again, it determines where you are. On the, in terms of the uh on the horizontal axis, your motivations for mobility, right? I'm going to skip this, uh. We talk always about remittances. It is one of the biggest impacts, positive impacts for origin countries, but even there when you dig into the data, there are a lot of nuances. The first and the most obvious one. Is that if you calculate the, the, a lot of the data come from balance of payments accounts, but if you look at it from a debit or a credit point of view, there's a 50% difference. If you look at it, if you do a kind of a model and calculate it based on economic fundamentals, it's even different. Right, we, we, we are even having a hard time measuring remittances, but then how do we measure the impact, especially the micro impact. It is there in terms of motivation. It is important for development, but we need to have a much better measurement and analysis of remittances, right? So coming back, origin countries. Uh, we give the Philippines as the role model here, get your act together, uh, design an overall integrated framework, have a ministry of immigration that actually interacts with all these other ministries as part of an overall, uh, agenda. Now, destination countries, I'm gonna skip this very quickly because the vast majority of the literature on migration is based on the evidence coming from destination countries because that's where the data are. Right, but the important things we want to emphasize is it is in the hands of the destination countries to determine especially where the match is, where the migrants fall, right, and it is in their hands by implementing the right policies you can increase the increase the match and increase the benefits. Now there is many times there's a trade-off between short-term political costs and long-term economic gains, but it is important to weigh in on, on the side of the long-term economic gains, and those policies that need to be implemented have to do with both legal access as well as recognition of, for example, credentials. Integration policies, inclusion policies, this is one of my favorite figures. You see how the salary profile of undocumented versus documented migrants. This is controlling for everything else. This is based on a famous figure by Borjas. Initially the 1st 10 years of a migrant's life, actually the slope is the same, but then the gap opens up because undocumented migrants, especially, they do not have access to certain occupations which require legal credentials. Right, and this is a huge loss to the destination country. All right. And also again, the issue of inclusion and the issue of distribution, you're seeing it even this is uh New York metropolitan area, right? These are literally half a mile, these are blocks. You see the extreme heterogeneity of the presence of the migrants. Imagine what it implies for the whole country in terms of labor markets, provision of public goods, so on and so forth, right? Heterogeneity in its cleanest form and hence the implications. All right. This is well known. I think I said all of them pretty much. The forced migrants are a special case, as Tan said. The important thing is also allowing them to move again to reduce the long term costs for the migrants and for the host communities. distressed migrants. This is one of the, we feel the most innovative parts of the. Both the policymakers and actually some of our academic colleagues try to lump all, especially voluntary migration into one bucket. Don't get me wrong, there are tons of undocumented migrants who are above the line because there is so much demand for them in the labor markets of the destination countries. Their match is positive, but there are still a number of people. Their numbers are not large, but they get significant media attention. Who are considered who are the distressed migrants in that lower corner. distressed migrants are the people who are on the boats trying to cross the Mediterranean or trying to walk, swim through the Rio Grande. These are the people who die on the road. Imagine the poverty they're exposed. Imagine the harsh conditions they are exposed to that is forcing people to risk their lives and their children's lives to take the risks they are taking. It's an extreme case. This is the number of deaths in each corridor of distressed migration. It is almost all undocumented. The skill levels are low. The legal status is uncertain. And these are some of the transit routes and not only distressed migration impacts the destination country, but a large number of transit countries. A lot of the tension between the US and Mexico is not about the Mexican migrants in the United States, but it is about the Central American migrants crossing through Mexico and you know, being helped by the cartels and all the criminal organizations and the risks they're exposed to. Or the same thing with West African routes or the route through Turkey. Now what we do, the issue of distressed migration is the extreme level of uncertainty and lack of evidence because by definition, Not only this is undocumented, it's a, it is almost a criminal activity, right? So it is very hard to collect the data and make the analysis, but as Tuan said, some of these people, right, try to enter, they, they try to enter into the top category. They are undocumented labor migrants. And some of them claim asylum because those are that's the legal channel that's available and that asylum track becomes a targeting problem. That's why it takes 2 years in the US or in many European countries to educate an asylum. Because you do not know if you're a legitimate defined by the law if you have a legitimate claim or you're one of the distressed migrants without a legitimate claim. This whole proposal by the UK you know sending a lot of the. Asylum applicants to Rwanda or the current EU policies are part of a way to deal with that that's the motivation behind that. It's not about judging whether this is the right or the wrong policy, but because of how to deal with distressed migration, it imposes a huge challenge to both legal economic migration and to legal forced migration. And we have to figure out ways to resolve it, as said. Either you have to increase legal entry channels, you have to increase asylum channel, and also humane deportations has to be part of the solution. But these are short, medium term solutions. What has to resolve it in the long run is economic development. OK. Now, I mentioned all of these. I think I'm done here. OK. Now coming back to the key messages of the W. Going back, you've seen the framework. The framework is meant to not necessarily for you guys, but the policymakers to put all of the issues on one simple graph and explain what the empirical and academic evidence, analytical evidence is pointing, so both the diversity of migration motivations, the diversity of the migrants. The diversity of the appropriate migration policies and also the interaction between the outcomes and the policies themselves. So what we need to do is first of all is the necessity of cooperation. Whether if it's bilateral, mostly for economic migration, where the match is strong, how do we make it better. Remember, the objective of the whole policy framework is to push everybody up. And to the left, right? Everybody should be up in that corner. All of mobility we see should be out of choice, not out of desperation or necessity, it should be out of choice and it should be beneficial. We want to minimize all other sorts of mobility, and that's where the policies come in and whether if it's bilateral cooperation between origin and destination countries or multilateral cooperation, especially in the case of the asylum seekers, sharing the burdens because the neighboring countries, mostly low and middle income countries, carry a way larger portion of that responsibility. The financing instruments again, everybody has to put their hand under the table. I was in Madrid at a dissemination event and somebody said the subsidies the EU provides for dairy farmers. is significantly multiple times higher. I didn't verify this. I'm taking their word for granted, is multiple times higher than the money spent on refugees. I think it would be fair to ask some of that money is transferred to the handling of the refugees, and we have to figure out what's the best way to share the burdens. And the final issue is what we call the inclusive decision making, and that has different components. One is getting low and middle income countries to have a bigger say in the working together, the bilateral cooperation side. Especially large, one example, large labor standing countries in South Asia and East Asia. Also within both destination and origin countries. Getting the private sector involved, believe it or not, even in high income countries, the private sector has has very little say in designing or providing feedback to immigration policy. Singapore, Australia, Canada are kind of the exemptions for it, but even in the US you see big corporations lobbying on the smallest issues related to other types of regulation, but minimal actually on the issue of immigration. And finally, the migrants and the refugees themselves should have a say. The people who have most to gain or lose depending on the policy environment. Right, and they, they do not get much of a say, partly because they don't get to vote, coming back to the citizenship issue. And partly because they are afraid, partly because a large number of them are undocumented for a variety of reasons, but it is important to have their voices heard. Uh, we went through all of this. The framework says people are heterogeneous. There are 4 boxes you have seen to make it easier to explain, but it's actually multiple, right? It's a continuum, and the policies have to be designed accordingly and appropriately depending on where you are. And and again the box is country specific, migrant specific, but the goals of the policy should be to create win win win solutions. I think that's all we have to say. Thank you so much, and then now we'll have Ifa and Michael. Thanks Tu and cello. Um, so, Should we just go in the order of Michael and then you thought? Thank you so much, can you hear me like this? So But what we hear about migrants all the time, uh. In the, in the press and the public discourse is, uh, is wrong. I'm not talking about facts. I'm talking about how maybe 4 out of 5 news articles, uh, or, or television discussions urge you to think about migrants. They urge you to think about them like water. There's even a literature on the hydraulic metaphor of migrants. People talk about flows, waves, torrents, influxes, floods, and floodgates. And it's actually much more useful, I would argue to think about migrants like seeds. They're creating an opportunity for themselves. They're also a huge opportunity for others. That opportunity can be destroyed. Take a truck and dump 10 million seeds in the corner of a field and don't invest anything in them, and they're not going to flourish and they're not going to benefit anyone. But with investment, with the right tools, with uh the expenditure of capital, with labor, uh, they not only flourish for themselves but uh but give food to, to everyone. And in that sense, investment in hosting them. Is a global public good and that that to me is the is the explicit and also just meta statement of this world development report. That for for the world and and for the ages that one of the most important global public goods of this century is investment in hosting. If migrants and refugees aren't like water, the global public good is the dam. Uh, if the, if migrants and refugees are more like seeds, the global public good is hosting and what is done to unlock their, uh, their potential, and this is just a major, major role, uh, for the World Bank. Um I, uh I, I, I want to focus on one. Question that the highest aspiration for a discussion is to leave an audience with one idea and my question is, uh, how could this World Development Report shape the bank, shape what the bank does next year, 10 years from now. Um. I'm thinking of the 1990 World Development Report that gave the world the dollar a day poverty measure and has shaped bank operations and operations of pretty much every development agency and is really remembered as a landmark. When I worked under uh Andrew Steer in the Environment Department 26 years ago, all of my colleagues attributed the existence of the Environment Department and its constituency within the bank to the 1992 World Development Report. So the question in my mind coming in today was what would it take for this WDR to be looked back on as a as a monument, uh, like those, something that really changed uh bank uh operations. So I, I, I remember the, the old days, uh, I'm old, so the old, some of the old days are quite a while ago. I went to the launch of the 2006 Global Economic Prospects, uh, about remittances, focusing on remittances. Um, there was Yuri Dadou who had to feel a really annoying question from, from annoying Michael Clemens. I, I, I asked him there, you know, uh, remittances are, are so voluminous now. Uh, as transfers to the developing world that anything the bank did that by facilitating temporary or permanent migration by making remittances cheaper, the combination of which, uh, caused. 7-8% increase in remittances to the developing world would be more capital flowing into the world than the whole annual disbursement of IDA at that time. Why isn't this a major function of the World Bank? Why isn't this the first thing you see when you go to the World Bank's, uh, website? And rightly he kind of chuckled at that, and everybody in the room kind of chuckled at that and was seen as kind of silly. 2010. Uh, David McKenzie, I don't know if David happens to be here, one of the leading, uh, applied development economists in the world sitting here at the bank evaluated. The effects on households in Tonga and Vanuatu of the of New Zealand's recognized seasonal employer scheme. The working paper version of his paper in the abstract called it quote one of the most effective development projects ever created. Because here was a program that was wildly popular, was greatly beneficial to New Zealand, was, uh, was multiplying wages by a factor of 15. Uh Not much else that the bank or any other development agency has ever done could do anything like that. Here's the, the people sitting in the bank calling this one of the most effective things it's ever done and asking, well, does the structure of the bank's portfolio, does the structure, does the organizational structure of the bank, does the allocation of people whose jobs it is to do stuff reflect that one of the best things it ever did was. Helping a bunch of guys go to New Zealand and pick fruit, um, not really wildly out of, out of step with that. Fast forward to 2023 and here we are with a world development report saying one of the greatest public goods in the world is to is is hosting migrants and refugees and how could development agencies get involved in in facilitating that. And um. Just talking, doing an informal poll with some bank colleagues over the last couple of weeks, knowing I was gonna come in, I, I asked, well, what, what should happen? And one of the clearest answers I got was, Uh, there, there could be, so this is a question, could there be a, a window? I Of of some kind either either either from the bank's treasury or a a facility managed by the bank. Designed to finance the hosting of non-refugee migrants. Uh, in, in middle income countries, particularly or perhaps also low income countries right now, uh, there is, uh, what's the official name of it, the Window for hosting Communities and refugees name has changed over the over the last few years, part of Ida. So far it's it's uh dispersed something like $7 billion to low income countries. To ITA members to help them host refugees, there is the GCFF which has similarly over its lifetime dispersed something like 7 billion to middle income countries to help them host refugees. There doesn't seem to be a big sphere of bank action to create, to collaborate in the creation of new destinations for what some people might call economic migrants, uh, people in the, in the, in the, on, on, on one, side of the, of the motive, uh, uh, and, and, and match, uh, matrix that you just looked at. Uh, nothing. And, and then we have the astonishing, as Chalar pointed out, totally unprecedented demographic pressures. Uh, meaning that there's going to be a whole lot more migration. Um, a, a statistic that I, I wanna send home with, with everyone here is that in, if in the world population prospects of the UN, which Chaler doesn't believe, uh, uh, but, uh, but, but contains some reflection of reality, out to 2, up to the year 2100, what fraction of all working age human beings will be African? And the answer is over 40%. The share of working age people in every other region of the world starting 10 years from now is going to be shrinking except Africa will continue to grow up to and through 2100 so that's where the workers are going to be and yet we have Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh pointing out that even a, a, a, a tripling of the the African fraction of residents of Europe, which clearly they discussed as probing the limits of what's politically possible. Would only absorb a small fraction of 1% of those people. So a lot of them are going to be migrating under some terms or another and helping create new destinations for them could be and I would argue should be a major major area of action, uh, for the bank, uh, and, and all other development agencies financing um. Other countries to do like what Malaysia has done. Not many people know that Malaysia is by far the number one destination for temporary workers in the world. It's not the US. It's not Saudi Arabia. Uh, if you're talking about, uh, temporary guest workers, uh, Malaysia has created more opportunities for, uh, for all of them evaluated by IFAT and, uh, and, and others as a, as a tremendous benefit to. To Malaysia, uh, as, as, as Chala and others have written, uh, certainly to the origin countries, certainly to the migrants, something that is a, is a tremendous success but essentially financed entirely and, and, and, uh, and, and carried out with, with, with knowledge, uh, local only to Malaysia. And uh if I had to, I'll I'll just close by by much more briefly pointing out a few other areas speaking of knowledge. Uh, why is it that when I've recently worked with the World Bank or with the, with the US government trying to build lawful labor migration pathways between, uh, Northern Central America and the United States. Why is it that that there isn't such a brand of the World Bank which has been a leader in that area? I, I don't know if Manjula is, uh, is here. Uh, there, sorry, I don't have my glasses on. Hi, uh, Manjula Luthria and, and other people in this room actively helped build some of the most successful, uh, labor pathways between developing world and, and, and more developed countries. And have sat in the room working out the difficult details of program design that are necessary to make those things happen at all, be politically feasible, be maximally beneficial. Why is it that that wasn't such a brand of this institution that the first thing that USAID officials thought to do was come to the World Bank and learn, uh, from them? Why isn't that a global knowledge practice, uh, for the, for the bank? Um. When, uh, when, when Nobel laureate Michael Kramer and I wrote a paper trying to justify the continuing existence of the World Bank at its seventy-fifth anniversary, one of the most effective things we found it had ever done was spread the idea, help spread the idea of cash transfers around the world, um, not with capital but with knowledge, and the bank could do that, uh, and has a really deep experience in that area and human capital in that area. They could do that for bilaterals and, uh, and, and, uh, and others all over the world. And uh. Uh, uh, I'll close with a, with a last idea, and this is just a brainstorm because the last thing I'm an expert in is the organization of the bank, but another thing that many of my colleagues mentioned was the fragmentation in the bank of work on migration. A lot of it depends on particularly visionary country directors. Um, incandescent individuals, uh, like Ifa sitting next to me are highly valuable, uh, but institutionalizing the process is, is necessary because positions change, people move on. And um one of one of my interlocutors said uh that uh that in in Africa migration is seen as a health issue in MA it's about refugees in lack it's about poverty and in East Asia Pacific it's SPJ, um. Shouldn't there be a, a, a cross-cutting, uh, uh Practice network uh empowered with money with uh with influence with an external brand like gender like FCV for migration to make sure there are more people in the bank whose entire job is just to do this uh finance one of the most important global public goods of this century. Three ideas. Thank you, Michael, and um. I, I don't think anybody is an expert on the organizational structure of the World Bank. It changes all the time, so you can't be. If I Thank you, thank you, Michael, um, uh, and you know, let me try to sort of pick up from where you left in terms of, um, in terms of, uh, bringing in the human capital angle but also I think Challer's last point about, you know, how do we move people into this that sort of left hand. Upper corner box, uh, and, and I really have kind of 3 takeaways, uh, that I wanted to share and put on the table, and I hope this will give you some good news on, on the work the bank is doing and the potentially what else we could be doing actually along with, with, uh, many of the people in this, in this room. Um, so the kind of the first, the first point I want to sort of my first takeaway is really, um, what, what I, my favorite slide actually, uh, from the PowerPoint is the one where you showed the demographic divergence, and I think, you know, if, if we were to just take that, I mean that that is sort of I think the big, big news for us because as Chala you mentioned this is the first time in history, in population history that we're seeing. This, this decline, uh, uh, in, um, uh, you know, in, in working age population and increasing in aging, uh, and but on that slide, if, if you add. Uh, the proportion of working age population in these three groups of, um, high income, uh, three groups of income, uh, level, uh, groups of countries, what you see actually, um, is the tremendous scope to expand. The the scope of, um, uh, working age population to be employed, right? So even if you look at the high income countries you see uh that perhaps there is scope for increasing the working age, uh, the, the, the prolonging the the engagement of of older workers in, in the, in, um, in, uh, uh, the labor force because obviously, you know, as, as, as, um, the speakers mentioned there's a shrinking, uh, labor force populate uh shrinking, uh, age. If, but if you look at the middle income country, uh, demographic profile and you look at the proportion of working age population that are employed, you see huge scope for expanding that, especially among the youth and women, right? And then if you look at the third group of countries, your low income countries, what you see is even though you still have this kind of solid base, like larger base, the share of working age population, uh, in the countries like Africa in Africa and others is. Larger than ever, right? So, so what this tells you is a very simple fact, which is, there is obviously a lot of scope for thinking through in three dimensions. One, you know, how do you increase productivity of your working age so you are able to expand and, and benefit from that. Uh, second, how do you think about aging population in terms of their, their care in terms of prolonging their engagement in the labor force, and thirdly, clearly what the, the, the report talks about is, is how do you help with the, the, the labor arbitrage across countries, surplus countries, um, uh, uh, in labor and and countries that are seeing shrinking labor supply, so. So sort of I just want to sort of expand the thinking of your of your framework because you know within with if you put it in the space the clear policy implications for the bank uh could be coming in and and motivating countries to think about then how you think of the migration um uh channel but, but the bottom line, the key takeaway for me there is that really at at the end, in the end of the day, uh, the best policy for countries can think about is really investing in human. Capital right? and and improving productivity of their populations because when my when people move regardless of the motive whether it's for economic opportunity whether it's because there is a fear factor here you move with one asset your human capital and and and I think if if if so that to me is like a clear implication for us in our work that um that you know we may we we we would wanna we we would wanna be doing. Um, the, the second, um, the, the second point I want to make is that, you know, the bank in this space in, in all these three dimensions quite uniquely placed to facilitate, um, all the policies that, that Chaler put, put out, um, uh, in, in, in, in many ways because, you know, we, we do work across different, uh, uh, regions, you know, we have engagements, uh, in. Destination countries we have engagements in uh origin countries um and clearly the work you mentioned on Malaysia that I did show the benefits of managing uh uh uh in a legal way, uh, more remunerative contractual based migration. Um, um, uh, across, across this countries now what many maybe colleagues don't know, including yourself, uh, uh, Michael, that actually when you look at some of the operations we've been doing in the bank, we actually have over 100 operations in 37 countries where we could be leveraging that engagement to do exactly what the WDR is, is talking about. So, so, you know, I hope that you know we would be. Be able to think about this more systematically, um, and, and what are the kind of interventions we see, you know, we see, we've, we're seeing, um, supporting countries in, in putting together bilateral labor agreements, uh, you know, the work we did Michael in Nigeria thinking about global skills partnerships that Manjula also had mentioned, you know, in Nigeria, the fact that, you know, we just all we did was actually explored with the government ways they could help work with the UK, um. Uh, uh, uh, in terms of hiring nurses, right, because the UK had a huge demand, uh, it, so the, the, the intervention is quite not very complex. It's really about putting together and sharing ways that some of these labor agreements can, can function, uh, thinking through intermediation systems, right? So we talk about in, in many of our, um, uh, uh, engagements in, in social protection and jobs, for example, we do do a lot of, um, labor market intermediation. Activities ALMPs one could potentially basically expand that to a global labor market intermediation uh mechanism. So, so in, in many ways if you, if you did, if you could do this properly, um, thinking through recruitments in, in, uh, uh, countries that are receiving, uh, uh, labor, uh, um, you know, sort of intermediation systems in countries that are sending labor, you know, you could be. Pretty much uh uh uh uh uh motivate what I call a global talent race right because countries would then want to be part of this competitive mechanism whereby their population is competitive in the labor labor international labor markets and so that's kind of um would be a sort of a a pretty um. Uh, uh, easy entry point, I can, I think for us, uh, uh, at the bank, uh, financing schemes are what we see from research is very important. So, and here I want to sort of bring in the point about we, we often think about movement to destination countries, but I think what I'd like to propose and maybe think a bit more with, with all of you movement back into origin countries, right, uh, including what you mentioned, Michael, remittances, right? So the huge source. Of of funding that comes into destination countries but also when when people specially in in when you have these managed migration systems we are seeing a lot of movement back into the origin countries and when they when returnees come back they come back with skills they come back with some financing and so thinking through what kind of support one could be thinking of for returnees will be in. Another way of, of perhaps um benefiting from, from, from international migration and not to forget the whole space of diaspora bonds, right? uh, you know, uh you mentioned Michael that you know this, you know what we know the volume of remittances actually dwarfs any uh data on FDI so the the potential to utilize that source of financing. Uh, you know, it, it could be a tremendous for us, and in fact Nigeria is the one country that actually has, um, issued a diaspora bond, uh, and, and we could be thinking about looking at, at their experiences as to what, how the, what the takeup was, what kind of, um, guarantees could. Actually facilitate more of these diaspora bonds would begin uh uh an area for us to operationally uh uh engage um and so I think it is so the the the second takeaway essentially is that there is a lot we could be doing uh in our work in uh in the bank, um. Uh, and in fact, um, we do have a community of practice on migration. We have a migration steering committee that is, uh, that is hosted by the Social Protection and Jobs, uh, Global Practice, uh, so I, I think the, the WDR essentially, um, offers more visibility to the work that we're doing already in the institution. And I think, uh, there's tremendous scope to, to deepen, uh, deepen that that work and my final point, um, is really I think where I, I would hope that the Blue Deer can really help is, is, uh, bringing a narrative shift, right, because I think all of the work that we wanna do really hits a wall because as you know, politics have trumped the analytics, right? And I think the pun is completely intended here, right? Um, because that, you know, often the, the narrative is very much orthogonal to what the research is saying and so, sort of maybe having the WDR messages be shared more forcefully across, uh, uh, you know, um. Uh, stakeholders who think differently even though those are uncomfortable conversations. I think there's a conversation we need to have and of course expanding the research, uh, evidence, and this is where I think, you know, and socialition and jobs would love to collaborate with, with tech because I think the whole. Uh, sort of thinking having a research program on the dynamics of migration, and here I really think there's a lot more work we need to do on the return migration, uh, uh, uh, space, uh, to really also help some of the discussions or, or, you know, uncomfortable questions that policymakers often ask is brain drain, right? But to address that those issues we need to have this evidence of, you know, how, how have migrants. Come back? What do they, what have, how have they contributed? I mean, in fact, my own country in Bangladesh, you know, sort of the best pizza in in Bangladesh you get is on the in the countrysides of Bangladesh because you have a huge number of, of, of, of migrants coming back from Italy and opening up restaurants. So it's, it's really, so if you want thin crust pizza, you go outside Dhaka. Really, so, so, so I think there's a lot there that we don't know in terms of the dynamics and the kind of services returnees may, may need, um, to really help with this kind of cyclical, uh, migration. So, so let me, let me stop here and, and, and, and really look forward to the conversation and thank you again for, um, inviting me. Thank you both. Um, OK, so we have about 15 minutes left. Um, right now there's no questions in the chat and I don't see any hands raised. Um. So I'll go to the room, but maybe if, if either of you want to react to, to, to These, uh, comments, um, before we open it up for questions, I'll give you a chance to do so. I mean thank you Ifa and, and Michael. Are you, I mean, both of them have been very supportive all throughout the process. That's not the reason we invited them, uh, but your comments are very well taken. I just wanna talk about the demographics one more. There's another slide we didn't put there. Maybe I should have given you a comment. If you look at the dependence ratio of the whole world, the share of the labor force in the world population. It is, it's also an unlikely and unheard of situation of stability that has been going on for almost 10 years and another 25 years to go, right? It's very stable, but what is happening underlying this, so it's great for the world, right? Uh, the aging doesn't seem to be affecting the world as a whole, but the issue, as we are trying to argue is that. Where the the workers are and where they are needed, the gap, the both the physical gap and the human capital gap is increasing, right? I mean that's the point of the WDR and hence the inflection point and hence we have another 25 years. I mean the, the way we kind of try to expose it, it's not a like a message of alarm or negativity, but the, the, a message of opportunity, right? We have that 25 years and what we do within that 25 years can change the way we know. Uh, how things operate both in low and high income countries, I mean that's the fundamental issue and your point on human capital is exactly on the dot. This, this could have been as well, uh, a report on human capital, right? That that whole match is about human capital. Demand increasing, supply increasing, but also the, the human capital gap is increasing, and that's where the bank, I think, does its best. How do we, it's an arbitrage opportunity and how do we make the, the gains increase from that arbitrage. So that's number one and your point about return is also right on the dot. We didn't put in the presentation again WDR is 200 pages and there's a lot of detail, but in many cases return rate is 50%. Right, and it again falls on the origin countries on what you do with the migrants. The migrants in the Gulf 100% return, but even the migrants in Europe and the US, the return rates are significantly higher than anybody anticipates, variety of reasons, and most countries seem to waste that human capital that comes with the returning migrants. So we, we started the definition of migrant as a person who doesn't have citizenship in the country they live in. And I think this the way the bank operates is that we engage with governments and governments don't internalize necessarily as much the welfare of non-citizens compared to the welfare of citizens and therefore I think your point is spot on is the financial instrument that allows to correct that preference mismatch is at the is at the heart of how we can also engage with with governments. In order to internalize the the the welfare of migrants, there's partnership, there's knowledge, but the financial instrument is, I think, the big missing piece in this whole policy, the implementation that that we've been discussing. Thanks, do you mind doing a show of hands to see who, who might have questions? OK, we have, OK, let's just go around maybe this would take a couple and then turn it back to the panel. Let's start with Peter. Thank you, uh, Peter Darvish, retiree. Uh, so, uh, brilliant presentation, brilliant, study as far as I can see. on this discussion. I had uh one observation, one impression. And I would start by saying that 1010 years ago, Dion, you had a you organized a meeting in HD uh trying to initiate a sort of a new approach to economic and financial analysis for investment operations in human development. I don't know if you remember that. Uh, I, I think the, the biggest impact on the operations, uh, from this would be if the team could sort of reconstruct or revise. A model economic and financial analysis for operations that would focus on migration displacement so that the teams could actually just tailor it to the to the local context because that's. In my view, and I think Dion agreed at that, at least at that time, it's very poor, so it's we, we just put a few internal rate of returns, uh, analysis and. And why the bank is best positioned to address these issues, but I think there is depth in this report that could be sort of translated. Into this. My other question is more coming. Home to my field which is you mentioned the emphasis in the presentation you mentioned the emphasis on education policy. And that that's what I was doing before I retired and uh but I'm not sure maybe in the, in the, in the report you detailed it. I'm, I'm not sure where that kind of importance lies or what exactly. You're recommending because the education policies that we have pursued globally in terms of displacement forced displacement, not just not specifically migrants or not generally migrants was very inward looking so we were just looking at um you know uh. Training teachers, providing facilities and materials, language of instruction, and stuff like that, so we have not had. A clear sort of idea on our own of what that we we felt instinctively that education should be given a more importance in tackling um. Migration and and displacement, but we did not necessarily have the sort of the breakthrough idea of what where should that be. Thank you. Thanks. So Who was next in sort of going around counterclockwise? Over there, OK. Hi, good morning, everyone. I'm Marla Spivak. I'm actually currently with the Education Practice, and I had two questions, one of which I think was building exactly that sort of what's the role for education, particularly, um, we've been speaking in the education practice a lot, and before he left, uh, JP was doing a lot, uh, to emphasize the demographic challenges, specifically in Africa, which you also mentioned which have big implications for the learning crisis, um, but I am curious to hear what. The WDR team thinks about the role of education in addressing some of these policy challenges that that you're raising. And then my second question, which I think also relates to education and skills, is in conceiving of what the solutions are and the proposals and also thinking about how the bank works, um, is it the sense of the team that the solutions are cross-cutting across industries or that there's a need to actually, um, go a level deeper and. Think about solutions for, for example, the health sector versus the farming sector versus manufacturing and that the needs and sort of, uh, specificities of policy design and maybe this is something Munjula could actually, uh, speak to as well are are unique to industry and we need to think, uh, not about policy overall but at, uh, industry specific interventions. Thank you. So Angella, and then over here, and then I'll turn it back to the entire panel maybe just for a final word. Thank you. Thanks. Thanks to everyone for getting a great conversation started. I'm just wondering if the team would be willing to share a little bit of their soundings that you've got from destination countries, uh, on the reception. Uh, but in particular, I was sort of started thinking based on the emphasis you're putting on demography, which is obviously, you know, no question, demography is destiny and it's, it's the big driver. Um, but when I've talked to, I talk quite frequently to these people in the UK, uh, I think it's called Immigration Matters, and they've done a lot of work. You probably know them well also. One of the things I keep getting reminded from them is that when it comes to sort of domestically selling the idea of immigration to aging societies based on demography. It actually scares them. Uh, that demography doesn't seem to be a good sell, even though everyone sees it. Um, it, it, it gets too quickly wrapped up in population replacement. And so I'm curious what soundings you took from there. Um, and then I, I suppose related to that is the question, and I think Charla, you touched on this. Um, I was expecting to see income differentials as a big driver as well. You said it's already an empirical correlate of, of aging, and so maybe you'd have some sort of an overdetermined model if you threw that in as well. But then when I think of destination countries that have opened up to migrants. It's the countries that actually got rich before they got old. So think about, you know, I mean, Malaysia, GCC, it wasn't demography that got them to open up their labor markets. It was the fact that, you know, they had structural change, their citizens moved away from certain types of work, and they had to open up the labor market because they just got rich, right? So, yes, it's an empirical correlate, but is there not a separate argument to be made just based on wage differentials? Thank you. Thanks. So we have 2 more interventions. We have 1 here. please come to the mic and then we have a hand up online, and then there's 1 question in the chat. So, if we, we are gonna go a little over, we started a bit late, so just fair warning unless we get told to leave the room, but I don't see anybody coming through. OK, go ahead. Yes, hello, thank you. Uh, first of all, uh, I'm a proud undergrad at George Mason many years ago and now with my new hat. Um, I know how difficult it is to frame and be more, uh, precise and brief on the, on what I would like to say because I've been lately a judge for PhD dissertations and they only have 3 minutes to present the 5 years or 6 year research. So, uh, here I am trying to be brief, um, again, my background is in global education. And um the intention is to um uh how I see is a is a lifelong learning investment by all means in all, at all levels including governments, including, um, individuals who are decision makers and I agree with you, Michael, in the fact that you said, um, I would like to frame it that I would like to think that it's, it is, it's about the burden with, with, with most people, most governments think about the burden that refugees and migrants are bringing to a country rather than the benefit of it. And why is that? Because we fail to assess, make a proper assessment of the knowledge, skills and abilities that they have, uh, that they can bring to, uh, to the table. Uh, and I, I truly believe on that because it's not just next stamp, next stamp, and come in and, uh, and that's about it, so it should be a journey, it should be, uh, again a lifelong learning investment and, uh, following up on with them, so, um. The question I have is related to that, you know, where are we in assessing those individuals, not, uh, globally, because, you know, refugee situation, as you, you know, clearly explained, uh, happens everywhere, right? So are we good at that? Are we good assessing on those individuals and, uh, and then being able to perhaps Corporations, organizations be able to identify those 100-200 people that have certain skills, be able to place them within the X industries accordingly. So that's my question. Thank you. Thanks. OK, so we have the two questions. Um, Norman, do you want to come in and ask your question? We can't hear you. Sorry, Norman, we can't hear you. I, I see you unmuted, but we still can't hear you. OK, I'm just gonna quickly read the question we got from YouTube, just to put it in the mix. Which is, I want to ask the panel if there are any data on the return rate of settled refugees slash previously forced displaced from adopted countries to countries regions of origin. I guess the return rate question. We've touched on this before, but OK, Norman, back to you. OK, we still can't hear you, Norman. So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna read the question that you actually posted in the chat and then hopefully that was the same question you wanted to ask, which is that, are you not concerned that government measures that increase human capital without improving the business environment will lead to brain drain? OK, so what I'm gonna do now is I'm gonna ask the two of you to respond sort of generally and then I'll give the last word to, to, to you too. So I think a lot of questions are, are on the next step which is the operationalization of the DBDR. How do we do concretely and, and this, I think, uh, we are not at that stage yet and, and you will be called into, uh, contributing to formulating how we are putting this in practice and, and in fact we'll obviously have also a, uh, uh, a leading role there. So I, I'm going to, to postpone those discussions maybe for, for when we have more concrete policies. I'd like to take Manjula's question about the, the, the, the uh migration and demography. I think everything is about. Opportunity cost of labor and I think if the opportunity cost of labor for the for the natives is driven by increased incomes because people are richer and then uh or is because there are fewer people, I think those two forces will be at play. I'm just going to give you one word in Portugal last week in the opening remark, the minister in of uh in charge of the migration said Portugal is going through a demographic winter. And so this realization from politicians I think is is is becoming salient in some countries and I think that's uh that's very uh uh salient in many of those countries, especially as we've seen in the Southern European countries. Thank you all for the the the questions, uh. I'll start with the education. I do not, I'm not an education expert, so I don't know the details, but the way I'm interpreting it should be focused on sectoral or occupational focus, right? I do not know the answer, but all I know is you have to provide skills and in fact knows it again better than me I apologize if I'm saying something wrong, but skills that are in global demand. Right, that's what it has to be, and it's important. The question is not about educating the people after they migrate, the refugees or the migrants. You have to educate everybody. Right before they migrate, so potential migrants and you have to improve the human capital level across the board and generally I'm again I don't have any empirical evidence on this, but my reading of The Economist weekly tells me that the skills that are in demand in a country are almost the same skills that are demanded globally right once you address it, it's not, uh, so that that's what it is you just have to improve globally demanded skills now your question on. Uh, Manjulo on income differentials, I still think it's the, the most important one. It's just we didn't spend that much time in the reports or here because the evidence on that one is well established, right? There's tons of fighting on the 200 pages. How we're gonna allocate income differentials as the main motivator of the welfare differences obviously. The most important one, but we wanted to emphasize, say, demography, climate change, all these other ones because there's well less known and more of an inflection point that we're at a at a transition point. Um, we're not trying to deny the importance of income differentials. Return rate of refugees. I'm sure it's, it's tricky because if they're naturalized and they return back, so refugee status is also a flow issue, right? Your refugee status changes. That's 5%, 1 quarter of the refugees are in high income and three quarters on low income actually hides the fact a lot of the people with refugee background has always been nat has already been naturalized, right? The share is probably slightly more evenly distributed, but how many of them returned. I, I do not know. Uh, there is some return data of the people in the United States who go back and, and then you have to then figure out their refugee status, but nothing systematic and final question on why burden versus benefit. I mean there's an emerging literature, a lot of it actually comes from maybe psychology, sociology, and all that stuff, but one number I wanna emphasize again is remember 50% of the foreign born are almost 50% have been naturalized in high income countries. I refuse to believe high income country policymakers are stupid enough to naturalize people whom they think is not a good match, is not gonna add value, but there's a, there's a reason why the focus is on. The bad side, not the good side. Maybe it's human cognitive biases, but one thing I'm convinced of migration, the benefits are longer term. and are more diffuse. Whereas the costs are more short term and more concentrated and observed, and that creates the political bias and we added with the short term myopism of the policymakers, no policy politician who's worried about the election next year is gonna think about 30 years down the road. I think when these two forces are combined, we get the current political impasse or the polarization on migration. Thanks. So, last word to the discussions, Michael, first, and any thoughts? Thank you, um. When I first interned at the bank, we had an orientation and the director of communications ran it and one of the first things he said was that the founding purpose of the World Bank was fundamentally communist containment, and it, it really struck me at the time. I've never heard anybody say it, and I, I thought it was kind of saying the quiet part out loud until I found a, a 1952 foreign affairs article where Eugene Black had basically said exactly that. That, uh, the, uh, uh, a, a, the core purpose of World Bank was to was to keep the free world free what my dad's generation would call the free world, um. What one my way of interpreting what Aar and Tan are trying to teach us is that there's a, there's a different division of the world now. The, the, the free world, unfree world, uh, is gone with my father's generation. Uh, not many people are comfortable talking about developed and developing countries anymore, but there is a fundamental division of the world this century, and it's that there are parts where the, the workforce is growing, and there are parts where the workforce is shrinking. And as Chaler pointed out, it's unprecedented, it's huge, it's going to shape this century and just as the world in 1946 looked at the system of development finance and asked, is this apt for a world that is divided into the North Atlantic sphere and the Soviet sphere and decided to innovate institutionally and create this place. We really need to look at bank operations and ask if if if the existing windows if the existing chains of command if the existing allocations of resources of the existing priorities for research are apt to, to, to this world where there's a part, uh, where the workforce is shrinking, there's a part where it's growing and a and a vast gap in political feasibility skills and many of the other things that the that the bank is maybe the single organization that is best placed to invest in. And I, I think if we do that, it will result in, in a, in a better bank and an even more relevant bank. So just two points. Uh, one responding to, I think what Manjulo was saying, but linking it to what Norman was saying about the role of um. Uh, private sector, really, I think it's something that I, I, I didn't, uh, get a chance to mention, but I think that's gonna be critical also in terms of looking at the kind of demands, uh, that you will have in, in destination countries. So I think it's, you know, the, the, the my point about investing in human capital so that you're able to utilize it, um, uh, and increase the productivity of your working age precisely has this, you know, it will need better private sector, better business environment in domestic in, in, in. Origin countries but also in in in destination countries because they will have a role to play in terms of getting the right skills in place that is demanded for wherever it is, you know, um, in the in the domestic, uh, markets or, or, um, overseas markets because ultimately that will help with what Chala you're seeing that what you want ultimately the goal is to have more voluntary migration right? and so the choice that you have whether you want to migrate because there is an opportunity there's a wage differential modular that you want that will make your life better versus, you know, the choice about. Staying at home if you have a, if you have a decent job that allows you to stay at home and you're OK with it, then is it that you bring the choice element and I think their private sector and, and the business environment, all of that becomes very, very important, um, my and my last point is, is, is, you know, to if, if we, you know, one of the main things that I hope the WDR will help us do with this conversation is, is this recognition that migrants are not a liability but an asset and they are. Engines of growth, um, uh, whether they're a returning migrant or uh uh uh a current migrant and I think hopefully that sort of sort of change in mindset can help us move this this more constructive conversations about what are the right policies whether it's globally domestically in in overseas labor markets, um, so I hope I hope that's that's my hope and and and and I hope that we can work together to sort of help push this narrative forward and, and have these uh conversations thank you. Well, thanks everyone and thank you especially to the entire panel. Please join me in the panel. Uh, with that, I think I'm gonna call this to an end. One program note, our policy research talk series is going on at summer hiatus, so we look forward to seeing you back here in, in September. But, uh, with that, thank you everyone.

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