Summary of the World Development Report 2023 Key Findings

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00:00 Thank you,

00:01 and let me briefly summarize the key findings of the report on behalf of the team.

00:07 So this report is really about the 184 million people across the

00:10 world who live in a country other than their country of nationality.

00:14 The majority of them,

00:15 about 80%,

00:16 are economic migrants and about 1/5 are refugees.

00:20 If you look at the pie chart,

00:21 you'll see that almost 50% of them live in low and middle income countries,

00:25 which raises important development issues.

00:30 So this report was written against a

00:31 backdrop of a world facing profound transformations.

00:35 As we're seeing,

00:36 there's been unprecedented demographic changes across the world,

00:39 and this is sparking a global competition for workers,

00:42 which we saw playing out quite recently during

00:45 the COVID pandemic with the medical staff.

00:48 So high-income countries are aging really fast.

00:51 Just to give you an example,

00:52 Italy is expected to see its population cut by 50% by the end of the century.

00:57 There's another example,

00:58 1 out of 6 Koreans will be over 80 by 2050.

01:02 But it's not only high income countries that are aging quite fast.

01:05 Middle income countries are also aging very quickly.

01:08 Countries like Bangladesh,

01:10 China,

01:10 India,

01:11 Mexico,

01:12 and Turkey all have fertility rates below replacement levels.

01:16 It's really only low income countries that have booming populations.

01:20 But the question is,

01:21 are their young people equipped with the skills needed in the global labor market?

01:25 And in addition to all this,

01:27 climate change is also adding new risks

01:29 which could trigger disorderly movements.

01:34 So the question then becomes

01:36 not whether migration will or will not happen,

01:39 but how can we manage it in a way that can

01:40 make it a force for prosperity and development across the world.

01:44 Traditionally

01:45 there have been two main ways to look at cross-border movements.

01:49 So if you look at the left side,

01:51 The first way is rooted in labor economics.

01:53 Simply put,

01:54 it's a cost-benefit analysis.

01:57 The more the migrants' skills match the needs of the destination labor market,

02:01 the larger the gains

02:02 for the destination country,

02:04 the migrants themselves,

02:05 but often also for the origin countries as well.

02:08 This is what we refer to as the match of

02:11 a migrant's skills with the needs of the destination.

02:14 But here it's important to note that the match of

02:16 destination is also related to the destination country's policies.

02:21 For example,

02:21 if migrants are allowed to work at the level of their qualifications,

02:25 their contributions to the economy will typically be much larger.

02:29 Now if we go to the right side,

02:31 the other approach is about international law.

02:34 This looks at people's motive.

02:36 So when people move because of persecution

02:39 or there's been a conflict,

02:40 they're refugees,

02:42 and the country of destination is obligated to host them regardless of the cost.

02:47 By contrast,

02:48 if they move because they seek economic opportunities,

02:51 it's up to the destination country whether they want to accept them or not.

02:57 So the report takes these two approaches and combines it into a single framework.

03:01 And this can enable policymakers to approach

03:04 migration in a more comprehensive manner.

03:06 They can distinguish between the various types of movements

03:09 and then identify policies that are tailored to each of these situations,

03:14 and this applies for both origin and destination governments,

03:17 but also for international cooperation.

03:20 So now if we look at the quadrants,

03:22 if we go to the upper left quadrant,

03:24 This is the vast majority of economic migrants.

03:27 They bring skills that are a strong match for the destination economy,

03:31 and they actually don't have any substantial needs for international protection.

03:35 So as a result,

03:36 their movements generate net gains for themselves,

03:39 for the origin countries,

03:40 and for the destination countries.

03:43 So this is quite a safe space for countries to be in policy-wise

03:47 because here the policy goal is really to

03:48 further increase the benefits and reduce the costs.

03:53 Now if we go to the upper right quadrant,

03:55 the situation is quite similar.

03:57 These are refugees whose skills are also in demand in the destination country,

04:01 and so regardless of their status,

04:03 their presence brings the same benefits as economic migrants,

04:06 and the policy goal is quite similar to maximize the gains.

04:11 But because refugees flee immediate danger,

04:14 most of them move without regard for labor market considerations.

04:18 They typically move to the nearest safe haven.

04:20 And so here if we look at the lower right quadrant.

04:24 These refugees may not bring skills that are in demand,

04:28 and yet the destination countries are obligated to host them

04:31 under international law,

04:33 and this of course entails costs.

04:35 And so the challenge here is how can we provide protection to

04:38 these refugees in a manner that can be sustained over time,

04:42 both financially and socially.

04:45 And finally,

04:46 if we come to the lower left quadrant.

04:49 These are migrants that may not have the skills

04:51 that are a strong match for the destination economy,

04:54 but they also don't qualify as refugees.

04:57 Now their aggregate numbers are relatively small,

05:01 but their movements are often irregular and unsafe,

05:04 and in many cases can cause a tremendous amount of suffering.

05:07 So over time,

05:09 the objective here is how can we reduce the

05:11 need for such high risk and disorderly movements,

05:14 and development can play quite a significant role in this regard.

05:20 Now with these 4 types of movements in mind,

05:23 the report proposes a series of policy priorities

05:26 in each of these situations for origin and destination countries.

05:31 So if we look at the upper quadrants in the cases where

05:34 migrants do bring skills that are a strong demand in the destination.

05:39 The policies for origin countries are centered around remittances,

05:42 knowledge transfers,

05:43 skills development,

05:45 and mitigating brain drain.

05:47 And for countries of destination,

05:48 the policies can focus on economic and social inclusion.

05:53 Now for refugee hosting countries,

05:55 it's really about taking a medium-term perspective from the start,

05:59 because as we know by now,

06:00 many of these situations last for years.

06:03 So these policies include things like letting refugees work,

06:07 accessing services,

06:08 and moving within the country.

06:11 And then in the case of distressed migrants,

06:13 we need to recognize and respect migrants' dignity.

06:16 At the same time,

06:18 we can work to strengthen resilience,

06:20 develop domestic alternatives at home,

06:22 and enhance these migrants' skills.

06:24 In the long term.

06:25 This could help reduce the need for migrants to take such big risks for their life.

06:32 So to maximize the development impacts of migration,

06:35 we need a number of additional elements

06:38 international cooperation,

06:39 both bilateral and multilateral

06:41 financing instruments that are fit for purpose,

06:44 and perhaps most importantly,

06:46 we need to strengthen the voices that until

06:48 now have been typically underrepresented in the debate.

06:54 So let me close here,

06:55 and we look forward to the discussion.

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transcript

Thank you, and let me briefly summarize the key findings of the report on behalf of the team. So this report is really about the 184 million people across the world who live in a country other than their country of nationality. The majority of them, about 80%, are economic migrants and about 1/5 are refugees. If you look at the pie chart, you'll see that almost 50% of them live in low and middle income countries, which raises important development issues. So this report was written against a backdrop of a world facing profound transformations. As we're seeing, there's been unprecedented demographic changes across the world, and this is sparking a global competition for workers, which we saw playing out quite recently during the COVID pandemic with the medical staff. So high-income countries are aging really fast. Just to give you an example, Italy is expected to see its population cut by 50% by the end of the century. There's another example, 1 out of 6 Koreans will be over 80 by 2050. But it's not only high income countries that are aging quite fast. Middle income countries are also aging very quickly. Countries like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, and Turkey all have fertility rates below replacement levels. It's really only low income countries that have booming populations. But the question is, are their young people equipped with the skills needed in the global labor market? And in addition to all this, climate change is also adding new risks which could trigger disorderly movements. So the question then becomes not whether migration will or will not happen, but how can we manage it in a way that can make it a force for prosperity and development across the world. Traditionally there have been two main ways to look at cross-border movements. So if you look at the left side, The first way is rooted in labor economics. Simply put, it's a cost-benefit analysis. The more the migrants' skills match the needs of the destination labor market, the larger the gains for the destination country, the migrants themselves, but often also for the origin countries as well. This is what we refer to as the match of a migrant's skills with the needs of the destination. But here it's important to note that the match of destination is also related to the destination country's policies. For example, if migrants are allowed to work at the level of their qualifications, their contributions to the economy will typically be much larger. Now if we go to the right side, the other approach is about international law. This looks at people's motive. So when people move because of persecution or there's been a conflict, they're refugees, and the country of destination is obligated to host them regardless of the cost. By contrast, if they move because they seek economic opportunities, it's up to the destination country whether they want to accept them or not. So the report takes these two approaches and combines it into a single framework. And this can enable policymakers to approach migration in a more comprehensive manner. They can distinguish between the various types of movements and then identify policies that are tailored to each of these situations, and this applies for both origin and destination governments, but also for international cooperation. So now if we look at the quadrants, if we go to the upper left quadrant, This is the vast majority of economic migrants. They bring skills that are a strong match for the destination economy, and they actually don't have any substantial needs for international protection. So as a result, their movements generate net gains for themselves, for the origin countries, and for the destination countries. So this is quite a safe space for countries to be in policy-wise because here the policy goal is really to further increase the benefits and reduce the costs. Now if we go to the upper right quadrant, the situation is quite similar. These are refugees whose skills are also in demand in the destination country, and so regardless of their status, their presence brings the same benefits as economic migrants, and the policy goal is quite similar to maximize the gains. But because refugees flee immediate danger, most of them move without regard for labor market considerations. They typically move to the nearest safe haven. And so here if we look at the lower right quadrant. These refugees may not bring skills that are in demand, and yet the destination countries are obligated to host them under international law, and this of course entails costs. And so the challenge here is how can we provide protection to these refugees in a manner that can be sustained over time, both financially and socially. And finally, if we come to the lower left quadrant. These are migrants that may not have the skills that are a strong match for the destination economy, but they also don't qualify as refugees. Now their aggregate numbers are relatively small, but their movements are often irregular and unsafe, and in many cases can cause a tremendous amount of suffering. So over time, the objective here is how can we reduce the need for such high risk and disorderly movements, and development can play quite a significant role in this regard. Now with these 4 types of movements in mind, the report proposes a series of policy priorities in each of these situations for origin and destination countries. So if we look at the upper quadrants in the cases where migrants do bring skills that are a strong demand in the destination. The policies for origin countries are centered around remittances, knowledge transfers, skills development, and mitigating brain drain. And for countries of destination, the policies can focus on economic and social inclusion. Now for refugee hosting countries, it's really about taking a medium-term perspective from the start, because as we know by now, many of these situations last for years. So these policies include things like letting refugees work, accessing services, and moving within the country. And then in the case of distressed migrants, we need to recognize and respect migrants' dignity. At the same time, we can work to strengthen resilience, develop domestic alternatives at home, and enhance these migrants' skills. In the long term. This could help reduce the need for migrants to take such big risks for their life. So to maximize the development impacts of migration, we need a number of additional elements international cooperation, both bilateral and multilateral financing instruments that are fit for purpose, and perhaps most importantly, we need to strengthen the voices that until now have been typically underrepresented in the debate. So let me close here, and we look forward to the discussion.

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