Day 2 Agenda | Thursday, 13 June 2024
08:15 Breakfast
09:00 🎥 Challenges and Opportunities in Current Macro & Trade Policymaking
In recent years, macroeconomic and trade policies have confronted new and complex challenges. Political pressures on central banks have surged globally, fueled by mounting inflationary concerns. Inflation uncertainty within a country can spillover to other related countries through various transmission channels. Also, the interplay between growth shocks and financial shocks generates movements in uncertainty and risk in the presence of nonlinearities. On the international front, climate change and energy subsidies have emerged as significant factors shaping trade policies. Additionally, there are ongoing debates regarding the impact of large foreign firms’ entry on productivity within emerging markets.
- What is the impact of political pressure on monetary policymaking?
- What are the drivers of uncertainty and tail risks about economic and financial conditions?
- Do international trade rules adequality address energy subsidies to promote environmental sustainability?
Presenters
- Sebastien Dessus, Global Practice Manager, Global Trade and Regional Integration Unit, World Bank (Chair)
- Seohyun Lee, Assistant Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Measuring Interdependence of Inflation Uncertainty. 📑 Download presentation
- Sherzod Shadikhodjaev, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Energy Subsidies and the International Trade Regime. 📑 Download presentation
- Thi Kim Dung Dang, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Mega Foreign Firm's Entry and Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from Samsung in Vietnam. 📑 Download presentation
- Dario Caldara, Assistant Director, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Volatility. 📑 Download presentation
- Thomas Drechsel, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Maryland, Estimating the Economic Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data. 📑 Download presentation
11:30 Break
12:00 Lunch
13:30 🎥 Fiscal Policy, Debt and Growth
The global economy has faced unprecedented challenges in recent years, including a pandemic, wars, rising geopolitical tensions, and a return of trade barriers. Uncertainty has likely never been so high, and the role of fiscal policy has never been more critical. Facing increasing fiscal pressures and lower structural growth rates in many EMDEs, key topics for policy makers include finding the balance between preserving fiscal space and providing stimulus; avoiding debt distress; and building resilience of the debt portfolio to climate change. The purpose of this panel is to explore the impact of fiscal policy on economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of recent global events that have tested the resilience of economies worldwide. This session will discuss avoiding debt distress; and building resilience of the debt portfolio to climate change. The purpose of this panel is to explore the impact of fiscal policy on economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of recent global events that have tested the resilience of economies worldwide. This session will discuss:
- What policies have contributed the most to the fiscal trajectory of the United States and what are the possible scenarios going forward?
- How to predict the risk of debt distress in Low-Income Countries?
- How do natural disasters impact public debt levels and what can countries do to build resilience and sustain growth?
Presenters
- Frederico Gil Sander, Global Practice Manager, Global Macro and Debt, World Bank (Chair)
- Wendy Edelberg, Director, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institute. 📑 Download presentation
- Aart Kraay, Chief Economist, Equitable Growth, Institutions and Finance, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
- Lazar Milivojevic, Economist, Global Macro and Debt, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
15:30 Break
16:00 🎥 Improving Fiscal Decentralization
The trend in increasing fiscal decentralization—shifting spending and finance decisions from central to local government—has continued worldwide. Moreover, practices in various countries show that fiscal decentralization arrangements need to evolve as new challenges have emerged. Key challenges for SNGs include not only managing increasing expenditure needs combined with hard fiscal constraints and restricted financial support from national governments, but also the ability to absorb shocks related to a macroeconomic environment that is likely to become more volatile and climate change. This session will discuss:
- How does fiscal decentralization affect the quality and composition of spending in subnational governments?
- What changes to fiscal decentralization frameworks are required to address rising expenditure pressures related to healthcare, climate change, and other priorities?
- What are options for fostering multi-level risk sharing for addressing macroeconomic volatility and climate change?
Presenters:
- Emilia Skrok, Global Practice Manager, Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth, MTI, World Bank (Chair)
- Roy Bahl, Regents Professor Emeritus and Dean Emeritus, Georgia State University. 📑 Download presentation
- Jinsol Park, Professor, Department of Public Administration, Inha University. 📑 Download presentation
- Teresa Ter-Minassian, Senior Consultant, Former Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. 📑 Download presentation
17:30 Wrap-Up