- OVERVIEW
- DAY 1
- DAY 2
- SPEAKERS
- RELATED
The conference aims to share crucial international experiences in maintaining long-term fiscal sustainability, focusing on fiscal rules and institutions, consolidation, and decentralization. The conference brings together economists from developing and developed country governments, experts from international organizations and think tanks, and Development Partners, providing a unique platform for knowledge exchange, networking, and the opportunity to contribute to the global discourse on fiscal sustainability. The conference is organized jointly by the World Bank, Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the KDI School of Public Policy and Management.
Experts from the following institutions will present:
- Brookings Institution
- European Commission
- Georgia State University
- Harvard University
- Inha University (South Korea)
- International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- KDI School of Public Policy and Management
- Latin American Center for Economic and Social Policies
- Ministry of Economy and Finance (Korean)
- ODI (Overseas Development Institute)
- OECD
- Vienna University
- The World Bank Group
Day 1 Agenda | Wednesday, 12 June 2024
08:15 Registration and Breakfast
09:00 🎥 Opening Remarks
- Manuela Francisco, Global Director, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment, World Bank
- Jong-Il You, Dean, KDI School of Public Policy and Management
09:20 🎥 Congratulatory Remarks
- Junho Park, Deputy General Director, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Korea
09:30 🎥 Keynote Speeches
- Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy, Harvard, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. 📑 Download presentation
- Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. 📑 Download presentation
10:45 Break
11:00 🎥 Designing a New Generation of Fiscal Rules
Fiscal rules and fiscal councils have proliferated, especially since the 2008–09 economic and financial crisis. They can be a vital part of successfully navigating the future of fiscal policy after the multiple crises of the last five years. Fiscal rules are long-lasting numerical constraints on government’s spending and debt choices to promote prudent fiscal policies and ensure sustainability. A well-designed fiscal rule often includes long term anchors with implementable operational rules in the short run to strike a balance between flexibility, simplicity, and enforceability. This session will answer the following questions:
- Why do fiscal rules fail in some countries and succeed in others?
- How can fiscal rules work during times of prosperity and crisis?
- What is the role of fiscal councils and incentives in promoting prudent macro-fiscal policies?
Presenters
- Fernando Blanco, Lead Economist, Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth, World Bank (Chair)
- Jaehyoung Park, Director, Fiscal Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy and Finance. 📑 Download presentation
- Lucia Piana, Deputy Head of Unit, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, European Commission. 📑 Download presentation
- Francesca Caselli, Economist, IMF European Department. 📑 Download presentation
- Hermann Gonzalez, Alternate Deputy Director of the Latin American Center for Economic and Social Policies (CLAPES UC) and Vice President of the Autonomous Fiscal Council of Chile. 📑 Download presentation
- Martin Ardanaz, Senior Public Sector Specialist, IADB. 📑 Download presentation
13:00 Lunch
14:15 🎥 The Role of Fiscal Policy in Climate and Economic Resilience
The current and future consequences of climate change are existential. Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change. Fiscal policy has a vital role to play in mitigating and adapting to these consequences. While much work has focused on adaptation, there has been limited focus on the risk and macroeconomic modeling frameworks that inform fiscal policymakers about how to respond to climate change. This focus is particularly important as climate change is intensifying. There are potential non-linear impacts of climate shocks (“threshold risks”) and the potential to reinforce other economic shocks (“cascading risks”). This session will answer the following questions:
- What is fiscal policy’s role in economic resilience to climate shocks?
- How should policymakers think about risks from climate change?
- What is the role of fiscal policy in enabling climate adaptation by households and firms?
Presenters
- Franz Ulrich Ruch, Senior Economist, Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth, World Bank (Chair)
- Yonghee Chang, Director, Fiscal Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy and Finance. 📑 Download presentation
- Nicholas P. Simpson, Senior Research Fellow, ODI. 📑 Download presentation
- Kevin Carey, Practice Manager, Climate Economics, MTI, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
- Armon Rezai, Professor, Vienna University of Economics and Business and CEPR. 📑 Download presentation
16:00 Coffee Break
16:15 Fiscal Impacts of Ageing Populations
One in five people will be 60 and over by middle of this century, rising from 900 million in 2015 to 2.1 billion in 2050. Population ageing has become a key development challenge affecting not only developed economies, but also increasingly the developing world. The demographic transition is already having an impact on economic growth, and health care and pension systems, which in turn have significant implications for medium- to long-term fiscal sustainability. While challenges related to ageing are well known, there are also opportunities that may come with the end of the world's demographic transition. With their growing numbers, older adults represent a dynamic consumer and human capital resource. The global spending power of those aged 60-plus has been estimated at US$15 trillion in 2020. This session will answer the following questions:
- What are the effects of demographic changes on fiscal positions, labor markets and productivity?
- How can the experience, knowledge and consumption power of the ageing population be harnessed?
- What is the scope for economic policies to help reverse fertility trends?
Presenters
- Hag Soo Kim, Senior Fellow, KDI. 📑 Download presentation
- Heinz Rudolph, Senior Evaluation Officer, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
- Joana Silva, Senior Economist, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
- Charles Dalton, Senior Health Specialist, IFC. 📑 Download presentation
- Andrew Aitken, Economist, OECD. 📑 Download presentation
18:00 End
Day 2 Agenda | Thursday, 13 June 2024
08:15 Breakfast
09:00 🎥 Challenges and Opportunities in Current Macro & Trade Policymaking
In recent years, macroeconomic and trade policies have confronted new and complex challenges. Political pressures on central banks have surged globally, fueled by mounting inflationary concerns. Inflation uncertainty within a country can spillover to other related countries through various transmission channels. Also, the interplay between growth shocks and financial shocks generates movements in uncertainty and risk in the presence of nonlinearities. On the international front, climate change and energy subsidies have emerged as significant factors shaping trade policies. Additionally, there are ongoing debates regarding the impact of large foreign firms’ entry on productivity within emerging markets.
- What is the impact of political pressure on monetary policymaking?
- What are the drivers of uncertainty and tail risks about economic and financial conditions?
- Do international trade rules adequality address energy subsidies to promote environmental sustainability?
Presenters
- Sebastien Dessus, Global Practice Manager, Global Trade and Regional Integration Unit, World Bank (Chair)
- Seohyun Lee, Assistant Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Measuring Interdependence of Inflation Uncertainty. 📑 Download presentation
- Sherzod Shadikhodjaev, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Energy Subsidies and the International Trade Regime. 📑 Download presentation
- Thi Kim Dung Dang, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Mega Foreign Firm's Entry and Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from Samsung in Vietnam. 📑 Download presentation
- Dario Caldara, Assistant Director, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Volatility. 📑 Download presentation
- Thomas Drechsel, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Maryland, Estimating the Economic Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data. 📑 Download presentation
11:30 Break
12:00 Lunch
13:30 🎥 Fiscal Policy, Debt and Growth
The global economy has faced unprecedented challenges in recent years, including a pandemic, wars, rising geopolitical tensions, and a return of trade barriers. Uncertainty has likely never been so high, and the role of fiscal policy has never been more critical. Facing increasing fiscal pressures and lower structural growth rates in many EMDEs, key topics for policy makers include finding the balance between preserving fiscal space and providing stimulus; avoiding debt distress; and building resilience of the debt portfolio to climate change. The purpose of this panel is to explore the impact of fiscal policy on economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of recent global events that have tested the resilience of economies worldwide. This session will discuss avoiding debt distress; and building resilience of the debt portfolio to climate change. The purpose of this panel is to explore the impact of fiscal policy on economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of recent global events that have tested the resilience of economies worldwide. This session will discuss:
- What policies have contributed the most to the fiscal trajectory of the United States and what are the possible scenarios going forward?
- How to predict the risk of debt distress in Low-Income Countries?
- How do natural disasters impact public debt levels and what can countries do to build resilience and sustain growth?
Presenters
- Frederico Gil Sander, Global Practice Manager, Global Macro and Debt, World Bank (Chair)
- Wendy Edelberg, Director, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institute. 📑 Download presentation
- Aart Kraay, Chief Economist, Equitable Growth, Institutions and Finance, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
- Lazar Milivojevic, Economist, Global Macro and Debt, World Bank. 📑 Download presentation
15:30 Break
16:00 🎥 Improving Fiscal Decentralization
The trend in increasing fiscal decentralization—shifting spending and finance decisions from central to local government—has continued worldwide. Moreover, practices in various countries show that fiscal decentralization arrangements need to evolve as new challenges have emerged. Key challenges for SNGs include not only managing increasing expenditure needs combined with hard fiscal constraints and restricted financial support from national governments, but also the ability to absorb shocks related to a macroeconomic environment that is likely to become more volatile and climate change. This session will discuss:
- How does fiscal decentralization affect the quality and composition of spending in subnational governments?
- What changes to fiscal decentralization frameworks are required to address rising expenditure pressures related to healthcare, climate change, and other priorities?
- What are options for fostering multi-level risk sharing for addressing macroeconomic volatility and climate change?
Presenters:
- Emilia Skrok, Global Practice Manager, Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth, MTI, World Bank (Chair)
- Roy Bahl, Regents Professor Emeritus and Dean Emeritus, Georgia State University. 📑 Download presentation
- Jinsol Park, Professor, Department of Public Administration, Inha University. 📑 Download presentation
- Teresa Ter-Minassian, Senior Consultant, Former Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. 📑 Download presentation
17:30 Wrap-Up
CHAIRS
Date: June 12 - 13, 2024
Location: Washington, DC and Online