publication May 6, 2019

Timor-Leste Economic Reports

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October 2019 Timor-Leste Economic Report

Unleashing the Private Sector

Report PagePress release | Download report (.pdf)

 

Key findings:

  • Despite the late approval of the 2019 budget, public expenditure in the first half of 2019 was 16 percent higher than in the same period in 2018
  • Private investment is also expected to benefit from greater political and economic stability. 
  • Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2019.
  • GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent by 2021, driven by larger public spending and household consumption. 
  • Medium-term growth prospects are hampered by a weak private sector. Developing productive capabilities will require continued political and macroeconomic stability, strong investments in high-return connective infrastructure and relevant skills, as well as policy and regulatory reforms that improve the business environment.

 

April 2019 Timor-Leste Economic Report

Moving Beyond Uncertainty

Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

 

  • Key findings:
  • GDP declined for a second consecutive year, owing to political and economic uncertainty.
  • Public spending constrained until (late) approval of 2018 budget, with strong increase in the last 3months of the year
  • Current account improved due to higher primary income. Trade deficit eased as imports declinded and exports increased.
  • Positive outlook for 2019, with GDP forecast to grow by 3.9% and inflation to remain below 4%..

 

October 2018 Timor-Leste Economic Report   

Regaining Momentum?

Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

 

 

Key findings:

  • GDP growth has fallen sharply in 2017 to -4.7 percent.
  • GDP forecast to improve to 0.8 percent for 2018.
  • Outlook remains uncertain, depending on budget execution.
  • Offshore oil production continues to decline, however the Petroleum Fund recorded strong investment returns.

 

March 2018 Timor-Leste Economic Report

Lower Public Spending Leads to Slower Growth

Report page | Press release | Download report (.pdf)

 

Key findings:

  • GDP growth has fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8 percent.
  • Reserve assets grow and the outlook for tourism and petroleum remains positive.
  • Private consumption has been robust in 2017, but public and private investment has declined.
  • Offshore oil production continues to decline, however strong Petroleum Fund investment returns has lifted GNI.
  • Coffee exports dropped from US$23million in 2016 to US$14million in 2017. This reflects seasonal volatility and exports continue to trend upwards over the long term.