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Overview

The archipelago of the Comoros is in the Indian Ocean, north of the Mozambique Channel and northeast of Madagascar.

Political Context

As of February 18th, 2023, President Azali Assoumani has taken over as the new chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2023. Absent from the political scene since 2006, Azali Assoumani returned and won the 2016 presidential elections. His government introduced a series of fiscal and structural reforms, including a review and overhaul of the Presidential Rotation System among the islands. President Azali’s mandate was renewed in 2019 for a new term of five years.

Economic Overview

Rising global food and fuel prices negatively affected Comoros’ economy, highlighting its vulnerability to external shocks. Growth is below potential for the fourth consecutive year. The expected strong recovery in 2022 was thwarted by sluggish consumption. Inflation levels in 2022 set a record, reaching 12.5% for the year. By December 2022, headline inflation had surged to 20.6% year-on-year, driven by high food prices. As poor households tend to allocate a larger share of their expenditure to food, they are expected to bear the brunt of the shock. Tax measures adopted by the government to help cushion households from rising prices and the underperformance of state-owned enterprises led to a significant decline in government revenues and widened the fiscal deficit from 2.7% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2022. Due to a higher import bill, the current account deficit more than doubled to 6.1% of GDP in 2022 (from 2.9% in 2021) and external stability weakened, with reserve coverage decreasing to 7.6 months of imports at end-2022 from 9 months at end-2021.

With easing inflationary pressures and the finalization of investment projects (i.e., El Maarouf Hospital project, Galawa Hotel), growth is expected to recover modestly to 2.8% in 2023, remain subdued in 2024 at 2.9%, and then bounce back to 3.6% in 2025. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.6% of GDP in 2025, based on the assumptions of a marginal increase in tax revenues and lower support to state-owned enterprises. As the government completes major projects, debt is projected to increase substantially (from 32.7% of GDP in 2022 to 44.1% in 2025), but it should remain sustainable. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease in 2023 while the poverty rate is expected to reach 38.8% in 2023 and decline to its pre-pandemic level of 38.1% in 2024.

Social Context

Comoros is densely populated, with approximately 465 inhabitants per km2, and 53% of the population under 20 years of age. High population density places intense pressure on natural resources and the environment. The country’s location and topography are among the most climate vulnerable in the world, and 54.2% of the population live in at-risk areas. Nearly one-fourth of the population is extremely poor, unable to buy enough food to meet the minimum nutrition requirements of 2,200 kilocalories per person per day. One-fourth of Comoros’ population lives just below the national poverty line, and 10% of the population risks falling below the national poverty line in the event of unexpected economic shocks. Comoros children can expect to complete 8.4 years of schooling by 18 years of age. Girls receive significantly less education than boys, and adolescent pregnancies are two to three times that of peer countries. Chronic malnutrition leads to stunting in 31 of 100 children. The social safety net system in Comoros is progressing, but its impact is limited due to inadequate coverage. Comoros has made significant efforts during recent years to set up social safety net programs and there has been an increase of national coverage of vulnerable groups (around 6% of population) but the coverage is not yet able to meet the needs of the country. Comoros spends around 0.7% of GDP on safety nets while the average expenditure for African fragile state is 1.3% (ASPIRE, 2018). Due to the limited capacity of the social protection system, vulnerable citizens of Comoros face multiple challenges with vulnerability to economic shocks, natural disasters, and climate change.

Last Updated: Mar 24, 2023

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LENDING

Comoros: Commitments by Fiscal Year (in millions of dollars)*

*Amounts include IBRD and IDA commitments
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Additional Resources

Country Office Contacts

World Bank Office
United Nations Compound
Moroni
Comoros
PO Box 648
+261-20-22-560-00
For general information and inquiries
Diana Styvanley
External Affairs Officer
+261320500127
For project-related issues and complaints