The World Bank in Comoros

The archipelago of the Comoros is in the Indian Ocean, north of the Mozambique Channel and northeast of Madagascar.

Political Context

As of February 18th, 2023, President Azali Assoumani has taken over as the new chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2023. Absent from the political scene since 2006, Azali Assoumani returned and won the 2016 presidential elections. His government introduced a series of fiscal and structural reforms, including a review and overhaul of the Presidential Rotation System among the islands. President Azali’s mandate was renewed in 2019 for a new term of five years. The next presidential and gubernatorial elections in the Comoros are scheduled for January 2024.

Economic Overview

Rising global food and fuel prices negatively affected Comoros’ economy, highlighting its vulnerability to external shocks. Growth is below potential for the fourth consecutive year. The expected strong recovery in 2022 was thwarted by sluggish consumption. Inflation levels in 2022 set a record, reaching 12.4% for the year. By December 2022, headline inflation had surged to 20.6% year-on-year, driven by high food prices. As poor households tend to allocate a larger share of their expenditure to food, they are expected to bear the brunt of the shock. Tax measures adopted by the government to help cushion households from rising prices and the underperformance of state-owned enterprises led to a significant decline in government revenues and widened the fiscal deficit from 2.7% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2022. Rising import bills widened the current account deficit to 2.4% of GDP in 2022 (from 0.5% in 2021). This trend continued in 2023 Q1 but the external position remained broadly sound, with net foreign assets reaching an estimated $240 million in 2023 Q1.

The recovery is expected to continue, with growth predicted to reach 3% in 2023 and 3.8% over 2024-25, primarily driven by private consumption and public investment. The construction of the El Maarouf Hospital and the Galawa Hotel, as well as the construction or restoration of roads and ports, should significantly contribute to the economic expansion. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 6.3% of GDP in 2023 due to the completion of major investment and low domestic resource mobilization, before narrowing to an estimated 3.1% in 2025 on the back of a fiscal consolidation program, enhanced SOE performance monitoring, and increased expenditure efficiency through the use of an e-procurement system. Due to the disbursement of existing loans, public debt is projected to reach 45.2% of GDP in 2025, but the implementation of the 2023 debt management law will help contain it.

Social Context

Comoros is densely populated, with approximately 465 inhabitants per km², and 53% of the population under 20 years of age. High population density places intense pressure on natural resources and the environment. The country’s location and topography are among the most climate-vulnerable in the world, and 54.2% of the population live in at-risk areas. Some 45% of the population live just below the national poverty line, and 44% face either moderate or severe food insecurity. Comoros children can expect to complete 8.4 years of schooling by 18 years of age. Girls receive significantly less education than boys, and adolescent pregnancies are two to three times that of peer countries. Chronic malnutrition leads to stunting in 31 of 100 children. The social safety net system in Comoros is progressing, but its impact is limited due to inadequate coverage. Comoros has made significant efforts during recent years to set up social safety net programs and there has been an increase of national coverage of vulnerable groups (around 6% of the population) but the coverage is not yet able to meet the needs of the country.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2023

The World Bank Group’s engagement in Comoros is guided by the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for 2020-2024, developed in consultation with the government, civil society, private sector, women and youth associations, and representatives from across the islands. The CPF aims to support the country’s efforts to build resilience, strengthen human capital, and foster inclusive growth, as well as address the urgent need arising from the impacts of COVID-19 and Cyclone Kenneth.

Aligned to the Plan for Emerging Comoros, the country’s medium-term strategy to cover the period 2020-2030, the CPF’s four objectives also reflect the recommendations drawn from the Comoros Systematic Country Diagnostic:

·         Building human capital

·         Supporting disaster recovery and resilience

·         Improving the business environment and governance

·         Improving connectivity.

This engagement and investment ($300 million) support the country in achieving ambitious goals such as increasing the quality of the Comorian health system, reducing chronic malnutrition rates, increasing access to energy, and promoting Comoros connectivity.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2023

The World Bank is financing 11 projects in Comoros ($321.9 million) in health, social protection, disaster recovery,  energy, transport, youth entrepreneurship and private sector development, agriculture, climate resilience, tourism,  financial inclusion, and statistical development. It has contributed to response plans to recent crises including the plan to fast-track the country’s recovery from Cyclone Kenneth in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.  

The Support to COVID-19 Vaccine Purchase and Health System Strengthening Project supports the Government of the Union of Comoros efforts to vaccinate and protect at least 60% of its population, including adolescents, and also to strengthen its health system for an improved response to the pandemic and to health emergencies in general. The $21 million project financed the procurement of 200,000 doses of vaccines as well as the deployment costs for vaccination campaigns, contributing to the full vaccination of 386,851 people (47% of the population).

The Social Safety Net project supported by the World Bank has significantly helped Comoros build a national safety net system and expand its coverage, focusing on resilience, job creation, protection of human capital, women’s empowerment, and economic inclusion while strengthening the crisis response.

The new Shock Responsive and Resilient Safety Net Project, which has been officially launched in July 2023, has kept these efforts alive through its various components. Coverage has increased from 4,217 households during phase one (2015-2019) to over 36,000 households for phase two (2020-2023). Phase two beneficiaries are composed of 10,290 households of the economic recovery grant support program, 21,556 households of the COVID-19 response support, and approximately 5,000 vulnerable households have benefited from one-time support through the cash-for-work program. About 70% of the recipients of the economic recovery grant are female and benefitted from training and livelihood support and 294 mother leaders have been trained to provide community outreach and education. Monitoring and evaluation of these efforts have shown strong positive impact on economic inclusion. More than 100 classrooms and 60 water tanks have been rehabilitated to strengthen the resilience of the beneficiary communities. The World Bank has also continued supporting digital development. To date (September 2023), the project has enabled over 30,000 beneficiaries to open bank or mobile banking accounts, and a pilot of beneficiary registry is currently being designed.  

The Comprehensive Approach to Health System Strengthening Project (COMPASS) has helped improve access to quality primary healthcare with over 128,000 people having received health, nutrition, and/or population services through the project. Key milestones have included: the distribution of 30 scholarships for clinical and public health training; the enrollment of 64 health facilities in the Performance-Based Financing Program and the payment of the first subsidies; and supporting 173 community health and nutrition interventions through equipment provision, training of community agents, and promotion campaigns. This activity converges with the social protection sector interventions. The project also supports the enhancement of training curricula for lab technicians and paramedics, and the training of health workers by providing for in-service and pre-service training. To date, 21 scholarships have been provided for clinical and non-clinical specialties.

The Integrated Development and Competitiveness Project (PIDC) supports (1) value chain intervention in priority sectors such as agriculture (fresh fruits and vegetables, and export commodities, including ylang-ylang, cloves, and vanilla); livestock (dairy and poultry) and tourism, and related connectivity infrastructure (rural road rehabilitation); and (2) firm-level support and financial and technical assistance through a Business Plan Competition. Through the Business Plan Competition (CPA - Concours de Plan d’Affaires), more than 80 young entrepreneurs, cooperatives, and SMEs received technical assistance, grants, and matching-grants (ranging from $6,000 to $80,000). Most of the supported businesses are in the agribusiness sector, with more than 50% being women-owned/women-led. In terms of capacity building, 250 entrepreneurs were trained in business development through the National Agency for Investment (Agence Nationale Pour la Promotion des Investissements), and the Chamber of Commerce. The project also trained 37 livestock and crop technicians, helping address one impediment to the development of the sector. For value chain intervention, the project has supported the preparation of different texts to improve the competitiveness of local food production, and particularly to enforce the Food Law of 2017. Also, 100,000 vanilla vines were distributed to farmers in the 3 islands (Grande-Comore, Mohéli, and Anjouan). 

Phase 3 of the Food System Resilience Program will provide medium- to long-term responses to the food security crisis in Comoros and will assist 150,000 direct beneficiaries, 60,000 of whom are women. The project aims to increase the resilience of the national food systems and the country’s preparedness for food insecurity, for agriculture, livestock, and fisheries.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2023

The World Bank is working in close cooperation with France, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, various UN agencies, the Islamic Development Bank, and the African Development Bank to harmonize donor efforts in Comoros.

Last Updated: Sep 24, 2023