East Asia Pacific Economic Update, October 2015: Staying the Course


This page in: Bahasa Indonesia 

Key findings

  • East Asia remains one of the main growth drivers of the world economy, accounting for about two-fifths of global economic growth.
  • The region is expected to grow 6.5% in 2015, moderating slightly from 6.8% last year.
  • The global environment remains challenging. The recovery in high-income economies remains gradual, global trade is growing at its slowest pace since 2009, and the widespread slowdown in developing countries has intensified.
  • China’s economy is expected to grow at about 7% this year and gradually moderate thereafter, as its economy continues to shift toward a model more dominated by domestic consumption and services, which implies a gradual reduction of growth.
  • The rest of developing East Asia is expected to grow 4.6%, similar to last year.
  • The report assumes a gradual slowdown in the Chinese economy in 2016-17. This scenario is likely because China has sufficient policy buffers and tools to address the risk of a more pronounced slowdown, including relatively low public debt levels and regulations restricting savings outside of the banking system.
  • Developing East Asia’s growth is expected to slow because of China’s economic rebalancing and the impact of the normalization of U.S. interest rates that is expected in the coming months.
  • Commodity exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Mongolia will see slower growth and lower public revenues this year, reflecting weaker global commodity prices.
  • Commodity importers will maintain a stable—even robust—pace of growth. Vietnam, for example, is expected to grow 6.2% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016.
  • The report emphasizes two key priorities across the region: prudent macroeconomic management, aimed at shoring up external and fiscal vulnerabilities; and deeper structural reform, focused on encouraging private investment.
  • Policy makers in the region must remain focused on structural reforms that lay the foundation for sustainable, long-term and inclusive growth. These reforms include regulatory improvements in finance, labor and product markets.
  • These policies will reassure investors and markets, and help sustain growth that can help lift people out of poverty.