Russia Monthly Economic Developments




Global growth was solid in the third quarter of 2018, but it appears to be moderating. EMDEs have been under renewed financial pressure amid the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, higher borrowing costs, and concerns about softening growth prospects. Crude oil prices continued rising at the beginning of October, with the price of Brent exceeding US$86/bbl due to ongoing concerns about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports. However, oil prices have since declined, with Brent dropping to around US$80/bbl on the back of both demand and supply news. The ruble exchange rate strengthened by the end of September, supported by the Central Bank’s decision to raise the policy rate and to suspend currency interventions in the fiscal rule framework amidst relatively high oil prices. In the third quarter of 2018, net capital outflows from Russia’s private sector increased as a result of elevated geopolitical tensions and turbulence in emerging markets. At the same time, net FDI inflows decreased, reflecting reduced interest of foreign investors in Russian assets as well as a possible restructuring of companies to shield themselves from the potential expansion of sanctions. The trend of rising consumer price inflation in Russia continued in September, though it remained below the target level of 4 percent in annual terms. In the first eight months of 2018, Russia’s federal budget balance strengthened, aided by higher oil revenues and lower expenditures. In the beginning of October, the increase of the pension age was adopted as federal law. Key credit risk and performance indicators have been largely stable in September, and lending growth continues to both the retail and corporate segments.




Author

Apurva Sanghi

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

Media Contacts
In Moscow
Marina Vasilieva
Tel : +7 (495) 745-7000
mvasilieva@worldbank.org

Api

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