Russia Monthly Economic Developments

  • Following a third quarter boost in 2016, global growth remained broadly stable in the fourth quarter at 2.5 percent (q/q, saar).
  • Moderate growth in advanced economies was offset by stronger growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
  • Oil prices fluctuated tightly around $55/bbl since early December until the end of February. Prices were supported by production cuts, particularly from OPEC producers, and the expected decline in crude oil inventories in the second half of the year.
  • The ruble gained 2.6 percent vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar compared to last month, on the back of higher oil prices and a global rise in portfolio flows into emerging market funds.
  • In January, industrial production grew, driven mainly by mining and manufacturing.
  • Inflation – currently at 4.6 percent – slowed further in February, supported by the ruble appreciation and last year’s good harvest.
  • The federal government balance weakened to a primary surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP in January 2017 (from 7.4 percent in the same period last year) as government expenditures outpaced revenues by a significant margin.
  • Key credit risk and performance indicators in the banking sector remained largely unchanged through the end of 2016.


Apurva Sanghi

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

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Marina Vasilieva
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