Russia Monthly Economic Developments

  • The global economy continues to disappoint but global financial markets are stabilizing, post-Brexit.
  • Following a mid-August rally, oil prices weakened again. The price of Brent averaged $46.14/bbl in August. The mid-August rally did not support the ruble, which depreciated by about 0.9% in August.
  • Inflation continued to slow down in August and reached 6.9 percent y-o-y.
  • High frequency indicators show industrial production shrank by 0.3% y-o-y, as the services sector stabilized. Fixed capital investment showed some positive dynamics.
  • The banking system remains stable but still vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. Credit to firms declined in real terms, falling by 2.3 percent in real terms y-o-y in July.
  • The primary budget deficit increased to 2.4 percent of GDP as the impact of low oil prices outweighed lower government expenditures.
  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was stable at 5.6 percent, while real income dynamics were weak in July.
  • The government approved a one-time pension payment for January 2017 and postponed privatization of Bashneft to a later date.


Apurva Sanghi

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

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Marina Vasilieva
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