Russia Monthly Economic Developments

  • Global growth continued to be strong in the fourth quarter of 2017, reaching an estimated 3.1 percent (q/q saar). This was slightly weaker than the previous quarter’s readings as growth somewhat moderated in the United States and Euro Area.
  • Following seven consecutive monthly increases, oil prices — which reached more than $66/barrel (bbl) in January 2018 — retreated in early February. In January, the ruble strengthened on the back of higher oil prices and a weakening of the U.S dollar.
  • A favorable external environment (higher oil prices) supported Russia’s current account in 2018. In December 2017, industrial production dynamics improved on a month-to-month basis, but industrial production growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 appeared to be negative.
  • Labor market indicators were relatively stable in December. In January 2018, consumer inflation dropped further, reaching 2.2 percent, y/y.
  • Low inflation and lower inflation expectations allowed the Central Bank to cut the policy rate by 25 bp to 7.5 percent in annual terms on February 9.
  • In 2017, aided by higher oil prices, the federal budget registered a primary deficit of 0.7 percent of GDP (on a cash basis) compared to a deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP last year.
  • The banking sector started off the new year with growth in both retail and corporate lending. After two years of recession, Russia registered GDP growth of 1.5 percent.


Apurva Sanghi

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

Media Contacts
In Moscow
Marina Vasilieva
Tel : +7 (495) 745-7000


Subscribe to Russia updates