Russia Economic Report

Latest Issue: 
  • no. 41


Modest Growth; Focus on Informality

June 10, 2019: 41th issue of the Russia Economic Report

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Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to oneoff effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook.

Russia’s macro-fiscal buffers remain strong, with fiscal surpluses across all tiers of government and low public-debt levels. When compared to advanced economies, Russia spends less on health and education. Rebalancing in favor of these categories could improve the overall efficiency of public spending. Short-term inflationary risks have abated, with the Bank of Russia signaling a return to a neutral policy rate. Lending activity is recovering, but the banking sector remains afflicted with high concentration and state dominance. Having eased slightly, the poverty rate remains in double digits with many households close to the poverty line and lacking formal employment. Informal employment is rising in the face of close-to-zero net job creation by medium-sized and large formal enterprises.

Key risks to medium-term growth include the expansion of economic sanctions, renewed financial turmoil in EMDEs, a dramatic drop in oil prices, and souring of the global trade environment. The recent double-digit expansion in household credit may also pose a risk to financial stability in the case of a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.

Previous Russia Economic Reports

Russia’s Economy: Preserving Stability, Doubling Growth, Halving Poverty – How?

Russia Economic Report 40
The World Bank, December 2018

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The Russian Economy: Modest Growth Ahead

Russia Economic Report 39
The World Bank, May 2018

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Russia's Recovery: How Strong are its Shoots?

Russia Economic Report 38
The World Bank, November 2017

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From Recession to Recovery

Russia Economic Report 37
The World Bank, May 2017

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The Russian Economy Inches Forward

Russia Economic Report 36
The World Bank, November 2016

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The Long Journey to Recovery

Russia Economic Report 35
The World Bank, April 2016

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Balancing Economic Adjustment and Transformation

Russia Economic Report 34
The World Bank, September 2015

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The Dawn of a New Economic Era?

Russia Economic Report 33
The World Bank, April 2015

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Policy Uncertainty Clouds Medium-Term Prospects

Russia Economic Report 32
The World Bank, September 2014

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Earlier Russia Economic Reports can be downloaded through the World Bank's Documents & Reports.


Apurva Sanghi

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

Media contacts

Marina Vasilieva
(495) 745-7000

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The Macro Poverty Outlook is a semi-annual report, which analyses macro and poverty developments in developing countries. It is jointly produced by the Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practices of the World Bank.