Russia Monthly Economic Developments




Global economic activity continued to lose momentum in August as recovery leveled off and the new Delta variant outbreak applied the brakes on services, while commodity prices have been volatile and spiking recently.

In Russia, the spread of COVID-19 is on the rise again having accelerated over September. The risk is pronounced, while national vaccination rates remain low. Strong commodity and non-commodity exports have yielded a robust current account surplus so far this year, despite buoyant imports, and the ruble appreciated this month by 0.5 percent to outperform other EMDEs.

Economic growth momentum weakened in August as recovery leveled off in industrial sectors, while agriculture suffered weak harvests. Inflation continues to inch up, reaching 7.4 percent in September, primarily driven by higher food prices. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to experience positive dynamics. The budget shows a strong consolidation compared to last year, with robust revenue performance outstripping muted expenditure growth. Lending growth continues, albeit at a lower rate.




Author

David Knight

Lead Economist for the Russian Federation

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