Russia’s economic recovery continues, amidst relatively high oil prices and enhanced macroeconomic stability.
Russia’s economy emerged from recession to recovery in 2017. Deepening macroeconomic stability, firming energy prices, and a recovering global economy contributed to the return to growth. However, a renewal of solid growth will need private investment and a lift in consumer sentiment. Structural reforms designed to bolster investor confidence could greatly enhance long-term growth prospects.
The main objective of the project is to assist the Russian Federal Service on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring to further enhance the national capacity to deliver reliable and timely weather, hydrological and climate information.
Monetary policy remained consistent with the inflation-targeting regime, and is moving from moderately tight to neutral. Moderately tight monetary and fiscal policies, in combination with a favorable external environment and some one- off factors, let the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to reach a record-low level of CPI inflation in 2017. CBR continued its gradual approach to monetary easing, moving from a moderately tight policy to a neutral one. Annual inflation now stands at a record-low level, even below the CBR’s target of 4 percent, while inflation expectations, though trending downward, remain elevated (Figure 5a). However, pro-inflationary factors are on the rise, as discussed later in the outlook section. Russia Economic Report 39
In 2017, the export value of goods in all categories – except for energy goods, metals and wheat, other important commodities exported by Russia – increased by 17%, y/y. Export value of tradable services such as ICT and business services increased by 21.6%, y/y and 7.8%, y/y respectively.
While this is a positive development, the share of oil and gas exports in total export of goods (by value) remains high at 58.7%.