Burundi

Located in the Great Lakes Region of Africa, Burundi is surrounded by Tanzania to the east, the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west, Rwanda to the north and bordered by Lake Tanganyika to the southwest. With an estimated population of 14 million people, Burundi is densely populated, with an estimated density ratio of 442 people per square kilometer. Burundi is landlocked and has a low-income economy, with 85 % of the population employed in the agricultural sector.

In 2024, the Government of Burundi developed a new national development framework: Burundi vision “Emerging country by 2040 and a developed country by 2060”. To operationalize this vision, the government has updated the National Development Plan (NDP), which aims to change the Burundian economy for strong, lasting, and inclusive growth, creating good jobs for everyone, and improving social well-being.

The ruling party, CNDD-FDD has dominated the political scene since 2005. Following the 2025 legislative election, the ruling party has secured 100 out of 103 seats in the National Assembly and 10 out of 13 seats in the Senate. The presidential elections are scheduled for 2027.

A new administrative structure came into effect in July 2025. Burundi moved from 18 provinces to 5 provinces and from 119 communes to 42 communes, with the aim of strengthening decentralization and promoting a more locally accessible administration.

The Burundian economy is dominated by services (51% of GDP), followed by agriculture (31.6%) and industry (17.4%).

Real GDP growth stood at 4.2% in 2025, broadly in line with 4.1% in 2024, underpinned by continued infrastructure investment and increased recurrent public expenditure. On the supply side, all sectors contributed positively to growth. Services remained the primary driver, supported by the resilience of commercial services, communications, and public services. Agricultural output benefited from favorable rainfall conditions, while industrial activity strengthened on the back of improved electricity supply, despite disruptions stemming from fuel shortages and persistent foreign-exchange pressures. On the demand side, growth was largely sustained by public spending and a rebound in investment.

Average inflation remained elevated in 2025, at 34%, after peaking at 45.5% in April, but has since fallen sharply to 8.4% in August 2026, as favorable harvests eased food prices and the authorities’ 2025-27 Macroeconomic Stabilization Program halted central bank financing of the deficit. Inflationary pressures persist, however, from fuel shortages, higher global energy prices, El Niño-related weather risks, and a wide gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates.

The fiscal position improved in 2025, with the fiscal deficit narrowing to 4.6% of GDP from 6.4% in 2024, underpinned by enhanced revenue mobilization and broadly stable expenditure. Public debt declined to 67.0% of GDP but remains concentrated in short-term domestic borrowing (71% of the total). On the external front, the current account deficit narrowed to 9.3% of GDP from 11.5% in 2024, supported by higher mining and coffee exports, while international reserves remained low.

Macroeconomic prospects remain broadly favorable, with growth projected at 4.2% in 2026 and about 4.7% in 2027-28, underpinned by mining and coffee exports and enhanced energy capacity.

Burundi’s unique climate and rich soil offer opportunities for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to grow and process higher value-added products to export to regional and global markets, if major constraints in both its general business environment and its agribusiness ecosystem can be addressed.

Burundi could take full advantage of its mining potential to foster growth, create jobs, and generate revenues for the state. Labor-intensive artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is already a leading source of foreign earnings. In parallel, Burundi is implementing the legal, regulatory, and policy reforms to promote the development of large-scale mining projects.

In the short-term, ensuring macro-financial stability and competitiveness and reviving business environment reforms can attract investment and boost growth.

Challenges

The economy of Burundi is characterized by a predominance of low-productivity activities, with 85 % of employment in subsistence agriculture. This reliance on subsistence farming means that a significant portion of the population is engaged in agricultural activities primarily for their own consumption, rather than for commercial purposes. As a result, the agricultural sector contributes minimally to the country's GDP and economic growth.

The World Bank Group (WBG) has intensified its technical and financial support to accompany the government's vision of an emerging country by 2040 and a developed country by 2060. Through a combination of financing, policy expertise, knowledge, and private sector partnerships, the WBG aims to support a more resilient economy and lay the foundations for inclusive, sustainable growth.

A new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) 2026-2031 is being prepared. Building on the progress made under the current CPF, the new CPF is an opportunity for the WBG to better integrate the interventions of all its institutions to support Burundi in achieving the ambitions defined in its Vision 2040-2060.

Burundi benefits from WBG grant financing through the International Development Association (IDA). The current portfolio comprises 13 national projects and 3 regional projects for a total of $1.6 billion. The breakdown by sector is: Infrastructure (25%), People (41%), Planet (12%), Digital (5%), Prosperity (17%).

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has been expanding its work in Burundi, focusing on three priority sectors with opportunities for private sector engagement: finance, agribusiness, and sustainable energy. IFC is also working with several financial institutions to increase access to finance for small businesses and trade. Its commitment to the banking sector is $18.4 million. IFC also supports feasibility projects for energy production and distribution, totaling $8 million.

The World Bank Group Guarantee Platform, housed at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), has an active guarantee exposure of $24.26 million in Burundi (MIGA $14.58 million, and IFC $9.68 million) across 5 projects, supporting investments across the finance, agri-business, and energy sectors. MIGA has also supported the Trade and Development Bank to expand trade finance across member countries likeBurundi. Under the Guarantee Platform, MIGA will deepen collaboration across the Group to de-risk foreign investment and focus on mobilizing private capital, supporting climate-aligned investments, and driving economic growth and job creation.

The Cash for Jobs Project, known as MERANKABANDI, has contributed significantly to the creation of jobs and sustainable economic opportunities for beneficiaries through an integrated approach combining cash transfers, financial inclusion, and support for self-employment. All beneficiaries were organized into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs), 71% of which were in pre-cooperative groups, providing a structured foundation for sustaining the jobs created. All beneficiaries presented business plans, leading to the award of individual grants of $200, complemented by regular cash transfers of $300 over two years, enabling the launch or strengthening of viable economic activities. One year after the grants, 95% of the investments remain operational.

The Integrated Community Development Project, PRODECI-Turikumwev is expanding economic opportunities for refugees and host communities by supporting 2,000 microenterprises, over half of which are women-owned; 93% remain operational one year after receiving this support. The supported businesses have diversified their activities, increased their revenues, and strengthened their resilience. The project also supported 134 cooperatives (surpassing the target of 110). These cooperatives bring together nearly 8,000 members, including 4,400 women, and several are jointly managed by refugees and members of host communities.

Three projects financed by IDA are enhancing access to electricity: The Jiji and Mulembwe Hydropower Project has added 49.5 MW of clean energy to the national grid. The Solar Energy in Local Communities Project - Soleil Nyakiriza has begun providing off-grid solar energy to 350 schools and 361 health centers, as well as supporting the sale of 73,000 solar systems to 25,000 households, improving access for rural communities. The Regional Rusumo Falls Hydropower Project has added 26.7 MW to the national grid. The ASCENT Burundi Project is expanding grid access in rural areas, targeting over 1.2 million new connections by 2029.