Chad

Chad faces security challenges related to conflicts in neighboring countries, as well as the consequences of climate change, particularly the acceleration of desertification and the drying up of Lake Chad.

Due to the Sudanese crisis and the continuous arrival of new refugees and returnees, the Chadian government estimates that nearly 900,000 people could arrive by the end of 2025. Chad was already hosting around 450,000 refugees from Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Nigeria.

Poverty and vulnerability are widespread in Chad, with 44.8% of the population living below the national poverty line in 2022. Extreme poverty ($2.15/day per capita (2017 PPP)) increased by 2.6 percentage points between 2023 and 2024, reaching 36.5%.

The World Bank’s Human Capital Index for Chad is 0.30, meaning that a child born today will be 70% less productive as an adult compared to a child who has received quality education and proper healthcare. With 856 deaths per 100,000 live births, Chad has one of the highest maternal mortality rates, a phenomenon aggravated by the high number of early pregnancies (164.5 births per 1,000 adolescent girls aged 15 to 19).

Political Situation

The presidential election in May 2024 and local elections in December 2024 should allow for a return to constitutional order and stability. However, the post-election situation is marked by a political crisis following the arrest and 20-year sentence of Succès Masra, president of the Transformers party and main opponent.

On October 3, 2025, the Chadian Parliament (National Assembly and Senate) approved amendments to the constitution that extends the President’s term from five years to seven years without limit. The session was boycotted by some opposition parties. The new constitution was promulgated by the head of state on October 8, 2025.

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Chad’s economic performance has been marked by volatility and modest growth, driven by its heavy reliance on oil. The sector represents around 15% of GDP, contributes 41% of government revenues, and accounts for 76% of exports.

Agriculture, accounting for roughly 40% of GDP and supporting much of the population, has been repeatedly affected by droughts, floods, conflict and displacement.

The labor market is largely informal (about 88% of jobs) and agriculture based.

Financial stability remains fragile amid undercapitalization, high NPLs, and lagging prudential standards at public banks. The authorities are restructuring the two main public banks while undertaking efforts to bolster stability, expand inclusion, and strengthen Supervision.

Chad continues to be affected by conflicts and violent groups in neighboring countries, straining stability and public finances. In 2025, military spending rose 11.6% from the previous year, reaching 23% of domestic revenues.

Chad’s economy is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2025 (-0.1% per capita), mainly driven by non-oil sector growth (+4.2%). Oil GDP growth is estimated at -0.7% due to a decline in oil production.

The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to widen to 2.5% of GDP in 2025 due to a deteriorating trade balance. After reaching 5.7% in 2024, inflation is projected to ease to 4.1% in 2025. The poverty rate is expected to rise by 0.8 pp to 45.4%, with 9.5 million people living in extreme poverty.

GDP growth is projected to average 3.9% (1.2% per capita) over 2026–2027. Over the medium term, non-oil GDP growth is expected to average 4.2%. After four years above the target, inflation is projected to moderate to around 3.1% in the medium term. Extreme poverty is projected to rise to 47.6% in 2027.

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Human Capital

The Women's Empowerment and Demographic Dividend Project in the Sahel aims to enable young girls, adolescent girls, and women living in difficult conditions to thrive and reach their full economic potential by giving them access to quality education and adequate reproductive, maternal, and child health services with more than 13,000 vulnerable young girls receiving support (school kits, housing, tuition fees, tutoring...);

In the three regions of Lac, Kanem, and Salamat, the number of girls accessing secondary education has increased by 23%, while the dropout rate has been halved. 397 safe school spaces have been created (targeting thousands of adolescent girls). 168 women have received training in renewable energy, and 112 others in the operation and maintenance of heavy agricultural machinery.

The Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (PARCA) improves refugees' and host communities' access to basic social services, livelihoods, social safety nets, and also strengthens national refugee management systems. In line with its development objective, PARCA has enabled 85,300 beneficiaries, of whom 51% are women and 66% are refugees, to have better access to community structures (with the construction and equipment of 15 schools, 6 health centers, and 2 health posts); 96,500 beneficiaries, 97% of whom are women, to benefit from social protection programs (cash transfers and human capital support measures); 45,200 households to benefit from adaptive cash transfers during the COVID-19 health crisis and the influx of Cameroonian refugees into Chad. 29,200 beneficiaries, organized into village savings and loan associations (VSLAs), to receive training and grants to develop income-generating activities as part of economic inclusion measures.

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The World Bank's action in Chad is guided by a new partnership framework. The Country Engagement Note (CEN) supports the country's second five-year development plan. The CEN implementation period covers 2023-2024.

The new partnership framework was developed in close consultation with Chadian authorities and through broad consultations with the government, civil society, private sector stakeholders, and development partners.

Aligned with the government's objectives outlined in the country's five-year development plan (2022-2027), which focuses on improving governance, increasing production capacity, developing human capital, and reducing inequalities, the CEN was approved in November 2022. It aims to:

• Promote peacebuilding and advance decentralization.
• Improve governance and transparency, specifically in debt management, public finances, and oil sector governance.
• Expand access to basic services and infrastructure, particularly in border, peripheral, and conflict-affected areas.

A new national partnership framework for Chad for fiscal year FY25 to FY29 is expected to be submitted to the Board for approval. The World Bank finances 23 operations through the International Development Association (IDA): 12 national projects with a commitment of $1.49 billion and 11 regional projects totaling $939 million, amounting to a total of $2.51 billion.

Following the food insecurity emergency declaration in June 2022, the World Bank also mobilized $50 million through the crisis response mechanism to:

• Support agricultural production by providing seeds and small agricultural equipment to farmers.
• Acquire therapeutic foods.
• Screen and treat cases of acute malnutrition (moderate and severe).
• Strengthen health promotion and prevention activities.

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The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank's private sector development arm, has invested in mobile telecommunications (Moov Africa and Airtel), healthcare (Providence Clinic), microfinance, and industries and services. In collaboration with the World Bank, IFC assists the Chadian government in implementing the reforms needed to improve the business climate.

IFC strongly supports the development of agricultural sectors such as cotton and is exploring opportunities to strengthen those of gum arabic, sesame, and livestock. To facilitate market access, in addition to investments in telecommunications, IFC is exploring ways to strengthen the transportation sector. Furthermore, IFC provides advisory services and technical assistance to improve access to financing in Chad.

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