Guinea

A coastal country in West Africa, Guinea has a population of 17.52 million in 2026. Agriculture, the largest employer, provides income for 61.3% of rural population and employs 52% of the workforce, playing a key role in poverty reduction.

Mining is a key source of revenue and export earnings, but its growth poses environmental risks and can limit the development of non-mining sectors critical for job creation and inclusive growth.

On December 28, 2025, Guinea held its presidential election. Mamadi Doumbouya won the election in the first round with 86.72% with about 5.6 million votes cast and was sworn in January 2026 as President of Guinea, marking the return to constitutional order. Amadou Oury Bah was reappointed as Prime Minister.

The new Constitution promulgated in September 2025 provides for a seven-year presidential term, renewable once, a bicameral Parliament (147 deputies and 87 senators), and a minimum quota of 30% women in elected and leadership positions. Legislative and local elections scheduled for May 24, 2026, are expected to complete the electoral cycle and restore the full set of representative institutions.

On March 7, 2026, the government dissolved 40 political parties for non-compliance with legal requirements, a measure that affects several major parties. This decision is part of a review launched in 2023 aimed at rationalizing a highly fragmented party system. Opposition leaders and some civil society organizations have criticized the measure, arguing that the move restricts political pluralism and have signaled intentions to challenge the decision through legal and political channels.

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After dipping slightly to 5.4% in 2024 (2.9 % per capita), growth is projected to accelerate to 7.4% in 2025, reflecting broad-based sectoral improvements. Mining remains robust: bauxite export volumes surged by 31% y/y in 2025H1 as new companies commenced production. Non-mining growth also accelerated, supported by higher public investment and spillovers from the 2025 revaluation of the public servants’ wage index.

Inflation eased to 3.2% in 2025, from 5.1% in 2024, led by slowing transport and food inflation. The increase in real GDP per capita, combined with lower food inflation, is estimated to reduce the poverty rate to 22.3% in 2025 (from 26.7% in 2024).

Total revenues rose markedly and the fiscal deficit narrowed but remained elevated at 4.1% of GDP in 2025 (from 4.9% in 2024) as capital spending and public consumption increased, raising the debt to an estimated 47.9% of GDP in 2025.

Growth is projected to accelerate to an average of 10.3% in 2026–28, led by mining, which is expected to expand by an average of 23.3% annually as iron ore exports ramp up. Non mining growth is forecast to grow by 5.6% on average in 2026–28, supported by private consumption and continued public investment growth.

Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before declining thereafter. Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue gradually with the fiscal deficit declining to 3.0% by 2028 and the debt-to-GDP ratio to 44.8%.

Risks include global trade uncertainty, adverse weather disrupting production, banking-sector liquidity pressures, and spillovers from prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

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The Guinea Electricity Access Scale Up Project – Phase 2 approved in June 2025 for $132.3 million in IDA financing, is the main instrument to operationalize the Compact, translating M300 commitments into concrete access expansion and institutional reforms. With electricity access at around 53%, meeting the M300 target will require connecting about 7.7 million additional people.

The Guinea–Mali Electricity Interconnection Project financed by $80 million in IDA, will improve reliability, reduce supply costs through increased power trade, and enhance the long-term sustainability of the power system.

The Commercial Agriculture Development Project (PDACG) is a core instrument for operating the AgriConnect agenda. Building on Phase I which created approximately 16,000 jobs and laid the foundations for commercial agriculture, Phase II ($116 million) in preparation will foster an integrated economic ecosystem capable of generating jobs at scale, reducing food import dependence and promoting exports such as fonio.

The Emergency Response and Nafa Program Support Project (PRU-APN), financed by IDA at a total of $200 million, is expanding the productive safety net program to respond to shocks, strengthen the resilience of vulnerable households, and promote access to better jobs for vulnerable youth and women.

To date, approximately 140,000 households have benefited from Emergency Cash Transfers (ECT), while 120,000 households have received Regular Cash Transfers (RCT) and benefit from human capital centered accompanying measures under the Nafa program. In January 2026, the Nafa program deployed a comprehensive entrepreneurship package to 15,000 vulnerable youth, to help them gradually move up the opportunity ladder.

The Contingency Emergency Response Component (CERC), activated following the Kaloum fuel depot explosion in December 2024, was extended through June 30, 2026. It has supported the delivery of emergency equipment as well as technical training to strengthen the response capacity.

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The most recent Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Guinea (2018–2023) was completed in June 2023. A new CPF is under preparation for the FY26–32 period based on the new socio- economic development plan (Simandou 2040). A Completion and Learning Review of the previous CPF has been finalized.

The current portfolio has 12 projects with a total commitment of roughly $1.274 billion through 8 national and 4 regional operations. This commitment includes four co-financing Trust Funds for $41.09 million. As of March 2026, the undisbursed balance is $ 895.6 million or 70.3% of total commitment. The portfolio covers most key sectors of the economy, including Health, Social Protection, Energy, Agriculture, Environment and Mining, Water and Sanitation, Fishery and Aquaculture, Local Governance, Digital Development and Statistics.

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