Uganda

Uganda is a low-income country with a population of 45.9 million (2024), although the UN Population Division’s estimate is 50 million. Half the population is under 18, making it one of the youngest countries in the world. Uganda is also Africa's largest refugee-hosting country, with the refugee population increasing from 1.4 million in 2021 to more than 1.9 million in 2026. Located on the East African Plateau, landlocked Uganda straddles the equator and shares borders with Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It has a greatly varied landscape ranging from savanna to snow-capped mountains and boasts numerous lakes, including a significant portion of Lake Victoria, the world's second-largest freshwater lake.

With ample arable land, the economic mainstay remains agriculture, accounting for 24.8% of GDP and employing about 72% of the labor force. Top foreign exchange earners include gold, coffee, tourism, and remittances from Ugandans living and working abroad. Apart from gold, the country has sizeable deposits of minerals such as copper, cobalt, iron, and rare earth elements. In partnership with French energy giant TotalEnergies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Uganda plans to begin exporting crude oil early in 2027.

The country started implementing its Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) in July 2025. The plan will guide national development over the next five years under the theme of “sustainable industrialization for inclusive growth, employment, and wealth creation.”

The government plans to improve competitiveness by promoting a rapid uptake in science, technology, and innovation in the following growth areas: full monetization of the economy; value addition and industrialization; agriculture; tourism development; mineral-based industrial development; ICT; and finance.

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Uganda’s economy remained resilient in FY2025–26, with real GDP growth estimated at 6.4%, up from 6.3% a year earlier. Growth was broad-based: agriculture expanded by 6.6%, supported by cash crops and livestock production; industry grew by 6.3%, led by construction and manufacturing; and services expanded by 5.5%. Private consumption remained the main demand-side growth driver, while indicators pointed to continued private-sector expansion through August 2026. Inflation remained below the central bank’s 5% target, although higher energy, fuel, and utilities costs raised headline inflation to 4.1% in August. Strong exports and financial inflows pushed reserves to $6.6 billion at end-July 2026.

Growth is projected to reach 7.4% in FY2026–27 and 9.2% in FY2027–28 as meaningful oil production is expected to begin in the first half of 2027, boosting GDP and exports. Oil-sector investment and infrastructure projects will sustain imports, while rising oil exports should support the current account and reserve accumulation. Inflation is expected to rise as the first- and second-round effects of higher oil and freight costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East materialize.

Fiscal pressures remain elevated as spending increases amid limited access to concessional financing, and greater reliance on costly domestic borrowing. Interest payments now absorb nearly one-third of tax revenue, crowding out priority spending. Although tax revenue rose to 13.8% of GDP in FY2025–26, it remains low relative to Uganda’s development needs. Public debt is projected to rise to 55.3% of GDP at end-FY2026–27. With faster growth, poverty could fall to 47.9% in 2027.

To achieve its ambition of tenfold growth by 2040, Uganda will need more than oil. Priorities include growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, stronger domestic revenue mobilization, improved expenditure control and efficiency, and protection of spending on human capital and foundational infrastructure. Structural reforms are also needed to raise agricultural productivity, crowd in private investment, and create more and better-paying jobs.

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The portfolio in Uganda is financed by the World Bank Group’s (WBG) International Development Association (IDA), which provides credits (loans) on highly concessional terms, with no interest. And, currently, there is no commitment fee for Uganda on the undisbursed amount. Effective July 1, 2025, new IDA loans are payable over 40 years with an 11year grace period. As of September 2026, the portfolio comprises 18 projects worth $4.62 billion. The portfolio, covering sectors ranging from social protection to energy, is complemented by trust fund resources, knowledge products, and technical assistance. There is also an in-country Multi-Donor Trust Fund that currently stands at $76.47 million with seven donors: the UK’s FCDO, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany’s KfW, the European Union, and the Gates Foundation.

The International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) priorities in Uganda remain centered on boosting agricultural productivity and commercialization, developing sustainable infrastructure, advancing financial inclusion and innovation, and strengthening the business environment. As of June 30, 2026, IFC’s FY26 year-to-date commitments stand at $232.8  million, with an active portfolio of $78.5  million spanning infrastructure, manufacturing, agribusiness, and financial markets. These investments are complemented by $14.2  million in advisory projects.

As of August 31, 2026, the WBG Guarantee Platform, housed at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), has an active exposure of $485.64 million in Uganda, across three projects, supporting investments in energy, finance, and infrastructure (data centers) sectors. MIGA has also supported the Trade and Development Bank through guarantees that have enabled the mobilization of $747 million in commercial financing to expand trade finance across member countries including Uganda. Going forward, MIGA will deepen collaboration across the WBG to de-risk foreign investment and focus on projects that align with the Platform’s core objectives of scaling impact, mobilizing private capital, supporting climate-aligned investments, and driving economic growth and job creation.

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The World Bank Group’s (WBG) support to Uganda is guided by a Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The 10-year (2026-2035) CPF, endorsed by the WBG Board of Executive Directors on June 4, 2026, is anchored in the WBG Jobs Strategy Framework and sets out the WBG's focus areas to help accelerate Uganda's private sector-led socio-economic transformation. Across its four interlinked outcomes, the CPF advances the creation of more and better-paid jobs as the main pathway out of poverty on a livable planet by supporting strengthened economic governance; healthier and better-skilled people; better-connected communities through access to quality infrastructure; and a more productive and inclusive private sector.

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Water - Under the ongoing Integrated Water Management and Development Project (IWMDP) results include:

- 1,580,676 (against a target of 1,617,003) people benefited directly from improved water supply and sanitation services

- 1,265,314 (against a target of 1,372,345) gained access to safe water, which includes 21,905 refugees and 191,353 citizens in the refugee-hosting districts of Adjumani and Kiryandongo

- 71,056 people got access to improved sanitation services.

- In terms of job-creation, by June 30, 2026, some 16,059 jobs had been created, of which 3,745 were taken by women.

The Uganda Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers Program (UgIFT) delivered the following selected results:

Health – Three regional blood banks were constructed and equipped in the regional cities of Hoima, Arua, and Soroti. Each of the facilities is capable of processing up to 50,000 units of blood annually. Combined, this additional capacity has already begun to close the supply gap, pushing Uganda closer to the World Health Organization benchmark of 460,000 units.

Education – 259 seed secondary schools were built in sub-counties that previously had none. These schools are redefining opportunity for 79,020 children (47.8% female) who once had no nearby secondary school to attend.

Water – Construction, rehabilitation and extension of piped water systems plus sinking or repair of boreholes, creating 1,787 water points delivered safe water to 828,450 people in 135 districts.

Micro-Scale Irrigation in Agriculture – Through a cost-sharing model with the government, farmers owning up to 2.5 acres acquired either solar or petrol-powered irrigations systems. The program reached 5,370 farmers across Uganda, beating the target of 5,000. The intervention has already changed how smallholder farmers approach production. Many now harvest throughout the year, shifting from survival farming to commercial opportunities.

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