Latest Quarterly Food Security Update – March 2026
(data as of March 20, 2026)
Global agricultural prices had been easing through 2025, but recent months have brought uneven price movements. Now, the conflict in the Middle East is raising new risks—disrupting oil and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global agrifood supply. The World Food Program estimates that the conflict could potentially push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026.
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The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the risks from the current conflict, including energy prices shocks and trade route disruptions, are setting the stage for sharper price increases in the months ahead. Commodity market estimates from the World Bank show a spike in fertilizer prices between February and March 2026, with urea prices surging by nearly 46 percent month on month amid the on-going conflict in the Middle East - building on longer-term increases driven by structurally tighter markets and higher production costs.
Conflict and climate shocks continue to be the primary regional drivers of acute food insecurity. More than 87 million people are facing hunger in East and Southern Africa, and 52 million are projected to be acutely food insecure in West and Central Africa by mid-2026.
Compared to the last Update in December 2025, agricultural and export price indices as of March 20, 2026, closed 7 and 30 percent lower, respectively, while the cereal price index closed 7 percent higher. Decreases in cocoa and coffee prices drove the decrease in the export index. Meanwhile, wheat, maize, and rice prices, which closed 13, 4, and 5 percent higher, respectively, since the last Update, drove the increase in the cereal price index. On a year-on-year basis, the average price for wheat is 7 percent higher, whereas rice and maize prices are 2 and 6 percent lower, respectively. Maize and wheat prices are 20 and 7 percent higher than in January 2020, and rice prices are 1 percent lower.
Quarterly food price inflation increased in low-income countries but decreased in all other income categories between the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Of the 149 countries with data available for both quarters, food inflation exceeded 5 percent in 50.0 percent of low-income countries (7.1 percentage points higher than Q4 2025), 34.1 percent of lower-middle-income countries (12.2 percentage points lower), 43.9 percent of upper-middle-income countries (2.4 percentage points lower), and 7.5 percent of high-income countries (unchanged from Q4 2025). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 57.1 percent of the 140 countries for which quarterly food CPI and overall quarterly CPI indexes are both available.
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Last Updated: Apr 01, 2026
