Office of the Chief Economist - Middle East & North Africa

Middle East and North Africa April 2022 Economic Update Report Cover

Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty

This edition of the World Bank MENA Economic Update estimates that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economies will grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016. However, uncertainty reigns with the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine and the scientific uncertainty about the evolutionary path of the virus that causes COVID-19. The economic recovery may be uneven as regional averages mask broad differences between countries. Oil producers may benefit from elevated energy prices along with higher vaccination rates for COVID-19, while fragile countries lag. Per capita GDP, which is a more accurate measure of people’s standard of living, barely exceeds pre-pandemic levels due to a lackluster performance for most countries in 2020-2021. If these forecasts materialize, 11 out of 17 MENA economies may not recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

Last Updated: Apr 20, 2022

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa possess all the ingredients they need to leapfrog into the digital future. Their well-educated youth have already adopted new digital and mobile technologies, but, this is still in its infancy. Seizing the opportunities that the digital economy offers the MENA region will require a big push. Policymakers will need to work on multiple fronts. The sooner they start, the greater the chance that today’s young people can overcome economic exclusion and gain more opportunities to realize their—and their region’s—full potential.

World Bank Group

Events

The MENA Chief Economist Seminar Series is a regular event organized to shed light on and debate the latest research relevant to the Middle East and North Africa. The MENA Chief Economist Seminar Series are held in the World Bank offices in Washington, DC and are open to the public. If you’d like to attend, please send a request to hnegatu@worldbank.org.

MENA Chief Economist Seminar Series

Date	Title	Speaker
March 17, 2022	Worse Than You Think: Public Debt Forecast Errors in Advanced and Developing Economies Presentation	Davide Furceri
March 10, 2022	The Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction Presentation	Peter Henry
March 3, 2022	The Role of Justice in Development: The Data Revolution Presentation	Daniel Li Chen & Manuel Ramos-Maqueda

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Meet our Chief Economist

Roberta Gatti

Chief Economist

MENA Crisis Tracker "Latest Edition"
It aims to provide international information on public health indicators & economic effects of the COVID19 crisis in the region.
Previous Trackers

Regional Reports and Research

Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty
This edition of the World Bank MENA Economic Update estimates that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economies will grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.
How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID
COVID-19 was a stress-test for the region’s public health systems, which were already overwhelmed even before the pandemic.
Living with Debt: How Institutions Can Chart a Path to Recovery in MENA
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, like the rest of the world, remains in a pandemic-spawned crisis.
Trading Together — Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
The combination of a COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices has affected all aspects of the economies in MENA.
How Transparency Can Help MENA
As of April 1, changes in forecasts implied that the costs for MENA were about 3.7% of the region's 2019 GDP.
Reaching New Heights: Promoting Fair Competition in MENA
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) needs bolder and deeper economic reforms.
Reforms and External Imbalances
The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa
A New Economy for MENA
MENA countries will have to develop a digital economy that utilizes its young and educated workforces.
Expectations and Aspirations
A New Framework for the untapped Education opportunities in MENA.
Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in MENA
Water has always posed great challenges for the Middle East and North Africa.
Privilege-Resistant Policies in MENA
A New Framework for the untapped education opportunities in MENA.