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GDP (current US$)

Economic growth for the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) of the Europe and Central Asia region has been revised up to 2.4% for 2023. This pickup in growth reflects improved forecasts for war-hit Ukraine and for Central Asia, as well as consumer resiliency in Türkiye and better-than-expected growth in Russia because of a surge in government spending on the military and social transfers. Excluding Russia and Ukraine, regional output is expected to grow by 3% in 2023.

Yet growth across the region remains weak relative to the long-term pre-pandemic averages. Overall, growth in half of the countries in Europe and Central Asia is expected to be slower or little changed in 2023 than in 2022. During 2024-25, growth is expected at 2.6% a year, amid a weak expansion in the European Union (EU)—the region’s largest trading partner—high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

Despite the ongoing invasion, Ukraine’s economy is likely to grow by 3.5% this year after a contraction of 29.1% in 2022. This is thanks to more stable electricity supply, increased government spending, ongoing donor support, a better harvest, and the rerouting of some exports through the country’s western borders.

Learn More: Regional Economic Update Fall 2023

Updated: 6 October 2023


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