Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country
The Fall 2024 issue of the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) titled “Mounting Burdens on a Crisi Ridden Country” provides an update on key economic developments and analyzes their implications for the country’s outlook. The Special Focus section of the report examines the impact of the conflict on the Lebanese economy by analyzing shocks to consumption and net exports, particularly service exports from tourism receipts, a core pillar of the Lebanese economy, following the significant escalation in mid-September 2024.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2023: "In the Grip of a New Crisis"
The Fall 2023 issue of the LEM titled "In the Grip of a New Crisis” provides an update on key economic developments and analyzes their implications for the country’s outlook. The Special Focus section titled “The Impact of the Conflict in the Middle East on the Lebanese Economy,” assesses the impact of the current conflict and its spillover on Lebanon’s economy and its growth prospects amid a prolonged political and institutional vacuum.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2023: The Normalization of Crisis is No Road for Stabilization
The Spring 2023 issue of the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) titled "The Normalization of Crisis is No Road for Stabilization" provides an update of recent economic developments and assesses the economic outlook and risks within a continuous context of uncertainty and a political stalemate. It examines the continuous decline in the Lebanese economy amidst a normalization of the state of the crisis, markedly distant from a stabilization path, let alone a recovery path.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022: Time for an Equitable Banking Resolution
The Fall 2022 issue of the LEM presents the World Bank’s latest macroeconomic projections for 2022, within a prolonged context of uncertainty and institutional vacuum. It highlights the main bottlenecks prohibiting a comprehensive solution, with a particular focus on the discord amongst stakeholders on the distribution of financial losses-owing to the magnitude of losses in the financial sector.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2021: The Great Denial
The scale and scope of Lebanon’s deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of the post-civil war political economy. This issue of Lebanon Economic Monitor argued that the depression was self-imposed, or more precisely, imposed onto the general population by the elite that has long ruled the country and captured the state and its associated economic rents.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Lebanon Sinking (to the Top 3)
This is a conclusion of the Spring 2021 Lebanon Economic Monitor in which the Lebanon crisis is contrasted with the most severe global crises episodes as observed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2014) over the 1857–2013 period. In fact, Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55 billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020, with US$ GDP/ capita falling by around 40 percent.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: The Deliberate Depression
Lebanon’s macroeconomy has been assailed by compounded crises, beginning with an economic and financial crisis, followed by COVID-19 and lastly the explosion at the Port of Beirut. By October 2019, the economy plunged into a financial crisis brought about by a sudden stop in capital inflows, which precipitated systemic failures across banking, debt and the exchange rate.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019: So When Gravity Beckons, the Poor Don't Fall
Lebanon is in Crisis. While it is too early to gauge the economic impact of recent events, it is important to note that even prior to the eruption of the demonstrations, the World Bank projected a small recession in 2019; we now estimate that the recession will be deeper.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2018: De-Risking Lebanon
The Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) provides an update on recent economic developments and policies and presents a medium-term outlook on the economy, including forecasts of Selected Economic Indicators. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2017: A Call for Action
Following the resumption of the political process and in light of the urgent need for reforms, the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) spring 2017 issue presents a menu of reforms that would enable the country to rapidly and significantly turn the page of inaction and decline and return the country to a prosperous and inclusive development path.
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2016: The big swap: dollars for trust
Amid fiscal policy paralysis, monetary policy under the proactive Banque du Liban (BdL) continues to actively manage economic and financial challenges facing the country. Economic activity in 2016 is marginally picking up, thanks to the construction and travel sectors in the context of benign security conditions.