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Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports

March 2014: Investment in Flux
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at Indonesia’s unprocessed mineral export ban (page 19)
  • Applying a rapid risk diagnostic approach for building disaster and climate resilience in Indonesia’s growing cities (page 29)
  • Indonesia: Avoiding the trap (page 35)

Special topic boxes

  • The determinants of Indonesia’s import demand: investment and exports are important (page 10)
  • A Taylor Rule perspective on Indonesia’s monetary policy stance (page 11)
  • Following last year’s subsidized fuel price increase, more fuel subsidy reform is needed (page 16)
  • International experience in promoting downstream mineral processing (page 28)


December 2013: Slower growth; high risks
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at the 2014 Budget (page 23)
  • An update on poverty in Indonesia (page 28)
  • The labor market in Indonesia: recent achievements and challenges (page 32)
  • Local capacity and development in Indonesia (page 38)

Special topic boxes

  • The potential near-term impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed mineral exports on
  • Indonesia’s trade balance (page 13)
  • Update on the policies to improve the investment climate in Indonesia (page 22)
  • BLSM, Susenas and measuring poverty (page 29)
  • Local Level Institutions Studies methodology (page 40)


October 2013: Continuing  adjustment
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Sections in this edition

  • The Government's August policy package (page 25)
  • Enhancing connectivity through improved port performance (page 30)
  • Estimating the stock of infrastructure in Indonesia (page 36)
  • Local governance and education performance (page 44)

Special topic boxes

  • An update on unconditional cash transfers and the poverty rate (page 20)
  • The fiscal impact of changes in the Rupiah exchange rate and oil prices (page 22
  • The sensitivity of GDP growth to investment  (page 24)
  • Methodological note on estimating infrastructure capital stock in Indonesia (page 39)
  • Empirical studies on the links between public and infrastructure capital stocks and growth (page 40)
  • The effect of capacity development grants provided to district education offices (page 48)


July 2013: Adjusting to Pressures
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Sections in this edition

  • Examining the fuel subsidy compensation package (page 26)
  • Indonesia’s challenge: implementing the new social security system (page 34)
  • Indonesia: Facing up to the Double Burden of Malnutrition (page 40)
  • Bureaucracy reform in Indonesia: progress and pitfalls (page 46)

Special topic boxes

  • China’s proposed ban on low quality coal imports poses a risk to coal exports (page 21)
  • External debt levels remain modest but liquidity risk has risen (page 22)

March 2013: Pressures mounting
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at the preliminary 2012 budget outturn (page 23)
  • Understanding the value-added in Indonesia’s trade (page 27)
  • Preparing for Indonesia’s urban future: harnessing agglomeration economies (page 31)
  • Piecing together the picture of Indonesia’s infrastructure investment needs (page 37)

Special topic boxes

  • Property prices, lending growth and risks to financial stability (page 11)
  • A look at the drivers of increasing beef prices in Indonesia (page 13)
  • Serious floods in Jakarta caused tragic loss of life, and also serious economic disruption and price increases (page 15)
  • Indonesia’s changing import mix: the growth of capital goods imports and the growing role of Asia (page 30)

December 2012: Policies in Focus
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Sections in this edition

  • Will rising minimum wages affect job creation in Indonesia (page 21)
  • Indonesia’s successes in disaster reconstruction and preparedness (page 32)
  • Building Jakarta’s resilience to frequent flooding (page 27)
  • Village infrastructure for basic service delivery (page 37)

Special topic boxes

  • Indonesia’s new Food Law (page 8)
  • Why has the depreciating Rupiah not had a greater impact on inflation? (page 11)
  • Developments in Indonesia’s corporate governance framework (page 13)
  • Labor regulations: a “plateau” effect (page 24)
  • The impact of the major 2007 flood on Jakarta (page 28)
  • Rekompak – community-led reconstruction (page 34)
  • A note on reliability in the Supply Readiness Rankings (page 38)

October 2012: Maintaining Resilence
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Sections in this edition

  • Indonesia’s manufactured exports: near-term, dynamics and longer-term trends (page 18)
  • The 2013 proposed Budget and the allocation of spending (page 23)
  • Drivers behind the rapid growth of government personnel expenditure (page 30)
  • The Higher Education Law, a milestone achieved but still a difficult road ahead (page 34)

Special topic boxes        

  • The Unified Database–towards better targeted social assistance programs (page 16)
  • Medium-term trends in Indonesia’s manufactured exports (page 20)

July 2012: Rising to Present and Future Challenges
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Sections in this edition

  • Drivers and implications of recent trends in Indonesia’s current account (page 21)
  • Identifying the constraints to budget execution in the infrastructure sector (page26)
  • Investing in Indonesia’s roads (page 31)
  • The role of the global marketplace in enhancing domestic competitiveness (page 36)

Special topic boxes

  • Commercial property prices have been increasing strongly, while residential price growth has come down (page 9)
  • The “China effect” on global commodity prices (page 20)
  • What is the current account balance? (page 22)
  • Do local manufacturing firms benefit from greater integration? Some case studies from Jakarta and Surabaya (page 37)
  • The potential benefits of input quality and variety for manufacturing competitiveness (page 40)

 

April 2012: Redirecting Spending
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Sections in this edition

  • 2011 budget performance – a brief review (page 17)
  • Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page23)
  • Building Indonesia’ social safety net (page 27)
  • Turning quantity into quality in education (page 36)
  • Gender equality is smart economics (page 42)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The proposed fuel price increase (page 6)
  • Fuel subsidies are highly regressive with most benefits going to wealthier households (page 8)
  • Looking back to previous fuel price increases (page 11)
  • Key features of Indonesia’s new Land Acquisition Law (page 22)
  • About Doing Business and Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page 24)
  • Indonesia’s household-based social assistance programs (page 29)
  • BLT and BLSM (page 33)

 

December 2011: Enhancing preparedness, ensuring resilience
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Sections in this edition

  • A 2012 Budget focusing on crisis preparedness and medium-term development (page 17)
  • The BJPS Law and the transformation of Indonesia social security structure (page 23)
  • Indonesia’s manufacturing sector: Floating or reviving? (page 28)
  • Innovation and R&D in Indonesia (page 37)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The passage of the OJK Law (page 8)
  • Crisis preparedness measures in the 2012 Budget (page 18)
  • The macroeconomic assumptions for the 2012 Budget and medium-term expenditure framework (page 19)
  • How do exports of manufactured goods respond to macro-economic incentives? (page 31)
  • Recent manufacturing pick up due to strong domestic demand and favorable international developments (page 34)
  • An improved investment climate can increase the productivity gains from foreign R&D spillovers (page 36)
  • Competitive research grants (page 41)

 

October 2011: Turbulent Times
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Sections in this edition

  • The potential spillovers from the deteriorating global outlook to Indonesia (page 17)
  • Using PPPs to address Indonesia infrastructure challenges (page 24)
  • Sub-national spending is not delivering (page 30)
  • Identifying constraints to inclusive growth in East Java (page 38)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Potential benefits of PPPs for delivery of infrastructure services (page 24)
  • PPP experience in India (page 28)
  • An overview of current transfer mechanisms in Indonesia from the central to subnational governments (page 32)
  • A brief introduction to inclusive growth diagnostics (page 39)

 

June 2011: Current Challenges, Future Potential
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Sections in this edition

  • ASEAN 2011: Indonesia’ Chairmanship (page 18)
  • The revival of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia? (page 21)
  • Addressing Indonesia’s infrastructure challenges to enhance competitiveness and growth (page 28)
  • Connectivity and the Master Plan 2011-2025 (page 32)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Recent rice price developments in Indonesia (page 7)
  • Indonesia’s potential in the multi-polar world (page 17)
  • Different sources of data on FDI inflows into Indonesia (page 23)
  • Optimistic outlook, but challenges remain: the views of Japanese-affiliate companies in Indonesia (page 26)
  • The literature on infrastructure and growth a very brief overview (page 31)
  • Geographical distance versus economic distance in Indonesia (page 36)

 

March 2011: 2008 Again?
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Sections in this edition

  • Recent rises in food prices and their impact on poor and vulnerable households  (page 18)
  • Indonesia’s fuel subsidies: past experience and lessons from other countries (page 24)
  • Indonesia’s changing patterns of consumption growth from 1996 to 2010 (page 31)
  • Looking towards a rising middle class in Indonesia (page 38)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Global oil price developments and Indonesia (page 2)
  • Nominal investment trends in Indonesia (page 5)
  • A snapshot of the changing patterns of Indonesia’s exports (page 8)
  • The case study of the evolution of Bangladesh’s food policy (page 22)
  • A brief introduction to growth incidence curves (page 32)
  • There are several measures of inequality which seek to capture the distribution of households’ economic outcomes (page 35)

 

December 2010: Maximizing Opportunities, Managing Risks
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Sections in this edition

  • Managing capital inflows: Policy options for Indonesia (page 12)
  • Quality of public spending and disbursement profile in Indonesia (page 16)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Moody’s puts Indonesian government bonds on review for ratings upgrade (page 5)
  • Allocation and spending for the Ministry of Health (page 18)
  • Enhancing internal control and supervision can improve quality of spending (page 19)
  • A brief introduction to the Jamkesmas program (page 28)

 

September 2010: Looking Forward
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Sections in this edition

  • Update on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (page 21)
  • Piercing together insights into the  movements in household purchasing power (page 26)
  • Medium-term macroeconomic projections (page 30)       

 

Special topic boxes:

  • Recent rice price developments (page 11)
  • The July 2010 electricity tariff adjustment : a modest first step to better targeted energy subsidies at a lower burden on the budget (page 17)
  • Focus on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) (page 37)
  • Severance Reform Options (page 43)
  • PNPM Generasi Target Indicators (page 49)

 

June 2010: Continuity Amidst Volatility
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Sections in this edition

  • High lending rates and net interest margins in Indonesia: The sky’s the limit? (page 23)
  • How the GDP deflator has diverged from the CPI in the late 2000s, and what this means for projecting the government’s revenues (page 29)
  • Commodity price movements are large and hard to forecast...and matter for Indonesia’s growth, inflation and public finances (page 34)
  • While commodity prices fluctuations mostly affect prices and the nominal economy in the short-term, there is some response in real activity (page 36)

 

Special topic boxes

  • How a stronger  Chinese Renmimbi would impact Indonesia’s economy (page 5)
  • A new tax on cocoa exports (page 19)
  • Climate change issues: land use change and forestry (page 42)

 

Mar 2010: Building Momentum
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Sections in this edition

  • Estimating the impact of Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus (page24)
  • The ongoing implementation of the ASEAN-China free trade agreement (page 27)
  • Capital inflows and central bank sterilization (page 32)
  • The impact of Indonesia’s ’20 per cent rule’ on the level and quality of education spending (page 35)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Identifying the regular fluctuations in Indonesia’s Financial Account (page 7)
  • The rise and fall of the international crude palm oil price has had a dramatic impact on export duties (page 15)

 

Dec 2009: Back on track?
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Sections in this edition

  • Some recent developments in Indonesia’s Economy (page 21)
  • Indonesia’s trade flows through the global crisis: from peak to trough and back again (page 21)
  • The rupiah since late 2008: the scale of its movement and the driving factors (page 23)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The economy’s slowdown in late 2008 and 2009 has had a disproportionate impact on VAT revenues (page 20)

 

September 2009: Clearing Skies
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Sections in this edition

  • Looking ahead – a gradual recovery (page 18)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Seasonal adjustment and enhanced economic monitoring (page 3)
  • The government’s proposed 2010 budget (page 26)
  • Estimating the impact of El Nino on poverty (page 28)

 

 

June 2009: Weathering the Storm
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Sections in this edition

  • The Impact of the Global Crisis on Indonesia: Looking Ahead (page 23)

 

Special topic boxes:

  • The government’s stimulus package (page 29)
  • Classifying expenditure types – what the terms mean (page 31)
  • A primer on trade finance (page 33)