publication

Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports

Despite increased global uncertainty, Indonesia's economy continues its robust growth. If managed well, urbanization in the country has the potential to bring inclusive growth.

World Bank Group


September 2018: Urbanization for all
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Article:

  • Making urbanization work for all Indonesians (Page 35)

Boxes:

  • Favorable global economic conditions: have they disappeared? (Page 6)
  • Global Commodity Prices for Indonesia’s Key Exports Moved in Different Directions (Page 9)
  • Coal exports in 2018 have not increased in line with production increases (Page 10)
  • How will trade wars affect Indonesia? (Page 15)
  • Acceleration of structural transformation and the revival of the manufacturing employment? (Page 26)
  • Indonesia’s portfolio of urban places, 2016 (Page 41)
  • A broad programmatic approach for urbanization in Indonesia (Page 56)

 

June 2018: Learning more, growing faster
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Article:

  • Delivering quality education for indonesia (Page 26)

Boxes:

  • Private consumption growth in Indonesia: a cause for concern? (Page 5)
  • Alignment of Indonesia policy reform with international best practices  (Page 32)
  • KIAT Guru: Improving Teacher Performance and Accountability through Citizen Engagement and Performance-based Pay (Page 46)
  • MORA Education and Challenges (Page 49)

 

March 2018: Towards inclusive growth
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Article:

  • Collecting More And Spending Better For Inclusive Growth(Page 34)

Boxes:

  • The global economy ends 2017 on a strong note (Page 2)
  • Recent changes in trade policy (Page 27)
  • Why is Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio so low? (Page 50)
  • Guiding principles for Indonesia’s tax reforms (Page 54)
  • Excise taxes to address externalities (Page 56)

 

 

December 2017: Decentralization that Delivers
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Article:

  • Making Decentralized Democracy Deliver Local Service Improvement: The Role of the Central Government (Page 31)

Boxes:

  • Is private consumption recovering? (Page 8)
  • How do trends in consumption and VAT growth relate in Indonesia? (Page 21)
  • Further advancing on the fuel subsidy reform requires ‘off balance sheet subsidies’ tobe addressed (Page 25)
  • How much do oil prices influence Indonesia’s fiscal revenues (Page 27)
  • Econometric model to analyze access to basic service performance (Page 36)
  • Data issues in tracking local service delivery progress (Page 38)
  • Spending Better in DKI Jakarta (Page 51)

 

 

October 2017: Closing the Gap
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Article:

  • Mobilizing the private sector for infrastructure development (Page 25)

Boxes:

  • Food price inflation during Ramadan and Idul Fitri eased this year, partly due to Government efforts (Page 9)
  • Prices for most of Indonesia’s key commodities improved in recent months (Page 14)
  • Analyzing revenue targets in the 2018 Budget (Page 24)
  • Analyzing planned expenditures in the 2018 Budget (Page 25)
  • The effects of methodological changes in Sakernas (Page 28)

 

June 2017: Upgraded
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Articles:

  • The case for increasing investment in the early years (page 25)
  • What drives Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia? (page 34)

Boxes:

  • Impacts of the S&P sovereign credit rating upgrade (page 10)
  • Indonesia’s Tax Amnesty Program Bodes Well for Improved Tax Collection (page 21)

 

March 2017: Staying the Course
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Articles:

  • Getting services trade policies right for Indonesia’s development (page 29)
  • The new Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) program (page 38)

Boxes:

  • Indonesia’s exposure to the United States and United Kingdom economies (page 11)
  • Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (page 33)

 


January 2017: Sustaining Reform Momentum
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Articles:

  • Improving the quality of public spending in Indonesia (page 15)
  • Towards a better understanding of teaching practices and their impact on student learning outcomes in Indonesia: a video study (page 26)

Boxes:

  • Investment climate reforms have improved Indonesia’s Ease of Doing Business (page 4)
  • Personnel politics: elections and teacher hiring in Indonesia (page 27)

 

 

October 2016: Pressures Easing
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Articles:

  • Accelerating tourism development (page 20)
  • Why should Indonesia reframe and reorient its food security policy (page 26)
  • Ensuring universal access to safe water and sanitation services to reduce in stunting, poverty and inequality (page 36)
  • Double for Nothing? Teacher Certification and Beyond (45)

Boxes:

  • What happens when the Government boosts public investment in Indonesia (page 4)
  • The Indonesia tax amnesty program  (page 15)

 

 

June 2016: Resilience through reforms

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Articles:

  • Why are lending rates and net interest margins high in Indonesia? (page 16)
  • The price of trade protectionism in Indonesia (page 21)
  • Reviving manufacturing competitiveness (page 27)
  • Fiscal policy could better target inequality reduction (page 36)

 

 

 

March 2016: Private Investment Is Essential

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Section in this edition:

  • Beyond the ten economic policy packages: addressing significant binding constraints (page 19)
  • Public Support for action on inequality has grown (page 24)
  • Improving the freight logistics system in Indonesia (page 28)
  • Aligning pricing, regulations and investments to support sustainable energy development (page 37)

 

Boxes:

  • Why are domestic rice prices higher than international prices ? (page 7)
  • Sub-national governments play an important role in delivering public investment (page 16)
  • A snapshot of the logistics industry in Indonesia (pages 35)
  • Indonesia’s clean energy policies can yield local and global benefits (page 37)
  • Lessons in sound power sector planning from Latin America (page 41)]
  • Energy efficiency – the cleanest, but under-appreciated domestic resource (page 42)

 

 

December 2015: Reforming amid Uncertainty
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Section in this edition:

  • Indonesia’s fire crisis: Who benefits and who pays (page 18)
  • Realizing the potential of the Village Law (page 26)
  • The  Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement: Opportunity or threat for Indonesia? (page 31)

 

Special topic box:

  • An important and wide-ranging reform process was initiated in December (page 16)
  • Certification standards could encourage environmentally friendly production practices (page 19)
  • Peat fires have significant consequences for climate change (page 21)
  • Other costs – the unknown cumulative impact of fire and haze on flora and fauna (page 24)
  • Assessing the equity of Dana Desa allocations by comparing two villages (page 28)

 

 

October 2015: In Times of Global Volatility
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Section in this edition:

  • El Nino is expected to moderately raise domestic rice prices and inflation (page 21)
  • Implementing Indonesia’s national health insurance system (page 24)


Special topic box:

  • How important are trade and direct investment links with China? (page 10)
  • The draft 2016 Budget shows continued improvement in the composition of spending but will require significant revenue collection efforts (page 16)
  • Methodological changes in the March 2015 SUSENAS make historical comparisons difficult (page 19)
  • Summary of government housing programs (page 32)

July 2015: Slower Gains
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Section in this edition:

  • Indonesia’s current account – deficits are here to stay (page 21)
  • Fuel subsidies – a major reform, but not yet a durable one (page 26)
  • Geothermal energy in Indonesia: realizing the potential (page 31)
  • Ten years of Indonesia’s school grants program (BOS) – successes and challenges (page 37)

Special topic box:

  • Indonesia’s new CPO export levy may affect global CPO prices, but not necessarily positively (page 9)
  • Moving to market-based fuels pricing and raising government revenue while protecting the poor: recent examples from around the world (page 29)

 

 

March 2015: High Expectations
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Section in this edition:

  • Indonesia’s internationally high and volatile rice price (page 25)
  • Streamlining business licensing in Indonesia (page 31)
  • The sustainable pace of GDP growth in Indonesia: a closer look (page 36)

Special topic box:

  • Indonesia’s rebased and revised GDP (page 5)
  • The end of Indonesia’s export boom (page 10)
  • Fuel pricing reforms have slashed  subsidy costs but realizing the full benefits will require transparent and consistent implementation (page 19)
  • Past reform initiatives to develop a central OSS and simplify business licenses (page 35)
  • Estimating potential output growth in Indonesia (page 38)

 

 

December 2014: Delivering change
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Section in this edition:

  • Understanding and strengthening Indonesia’s revenue performance (page 22)
  • Indonesia and the ASEAN Economic Community (page 29)
  • Universal Health Coverage by 2019?. Only with adequate health services (page 37)

Special topic box:

  • A Financial Conditions Index for Indonesia points to a tightening Since Q3 2013  (page 12)
  • The latest increase in subsidized fuel prices is expected to yield significant fiscal savings in 2015 and beyond (page 16)
  • Minimum wage increase for 2015: relatively moderate, but still a source of labor market uncertainty (page 20)
  • A projected decline in oil and gas revenues reflects long-standing structural declines in production (page 28)

 

 

 

July 2014: Hard choices
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Sections in this edition

  • El Niño, forest fires and haze: the imperatives for concrete action (page 22)
  • New purchasing power parity-adjusted estimates of Indonesia’s economy (page 29)
  • Inequality and opportunity in Indonesia (page 33)

Special topic boxes

  • Recent challenges in Indonesia’s commodity export sector  (page 10)
  • Weak revenue performance has had a marked negative impact on the fiscal balance in recent years  (page 13)
  • Peat, peatland and peat fires (page 23)
  • El Niño and ENSO  (page 25)
  • The challenge of measuring inequality and comparing across countries (page 35)
  • Main findings from new research on risk and risk management in Indonesia (page 42)

 

 

 

March 2014: Investment in Flux
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at Indonesia’s unprocessed mineral export ban (page 19)
  • Applying a rapid risk diagnostic approach for building disaster and climate resilience in Indonesia’s growing cities (page 29)
  • Indonesia: Avoiding the trap (page 35)

Special topic boxes

  • The determinants of Indonesia’s import demand: investment and exports are important (page 10)
  • A Taylor Rule perspective on Indonesia’s monetary policy stance (page 11)
  • Following last year’s subsidized fuel price increase, more fuel subsidy reform is needed (page 16)
  • International experience in promoting downstream mineral processing (page 28)

 

 

 

December 2013: Slower growth; high risks
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at the 2014 Budget (page 23)
  • An update on poverty in Indonesia (page 28)
  • The labor market in Indonesia: recent achievements and challenges (page 32)
  • Local capacity and development in Indonesia (page 38)

Special topic boxes

  • The potential near-term impact of the proposed ban on unprocessed mineral exports on
  • Indonesia’s trade balance (page 13)
  • Update on the policies to improve the investment climate in Indonesia (page 22)
  • BLSM, Susenas and measuring poverty (page 29)
  • Local Level Institutions Studies methodology (page 40)

 

 

October 2013: Continuing  adjustment
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Sections in this edition

  • The Government's August policy package (page 25)
  • Enhancing connectivity through improved port performance (page 30)
  • Estimating the stock of infrastructure in Indonesia (page 36)
  • Local governance and education performance (page 44)

Special topic boxes

  • An update on unconditional cash transfers and the poverty rate (page 20)
  • The fiscal impact of changes in the Rupiah exchange rate and oil prices (page 22
  • The sensitivity of GDP growth to investment  (page 24)
  • Methodological note on estimating infrastructure capital stock in Indonesia (page 39)
  • Empirical studies on the links between public and infrastructure capital stocks and growth (page 40)
  • The effect of capacity development grants provided to district education offices (page 48)

 

 

 

July 2013: Adjusting to Pressures
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Sections in this edition

  • Examining the fuel subsidy compensation package (page 26)
  • Indonesia’s challenge: implementing the new social security system (page 34)
  • Indonesia: Facing up to the Double Burden of Malnutrition (page 40)
  • Bureaucracy reform in Indonesia: progress and pitfalls (page 46)

 

Special topic boxes

  • China’s proposed ban on low quality coal imports poses a risk to coal exports (page 21)
  • External debt levels remain modest but liquidity risk has risen (page 22)

 

March 2013: Pressures mounting
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Sections in this edition

  • A closer look at the preliminary 2012 budget outturn (page 23)
  • Understanding the value-added in Indonesia’s trade (page 27)
  • Preparing for Indonesia’s urban future: harnessing agglomeration economies (page 31)
  • Piecing together the picture of Indonesia’s infrastructure investment needs (page 37)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Property prices, lending growth and risks to financial stability (page 11)
  • A look at the drivers of increasing beef prices in Indonesia (page 13)
  • Serious floods in Jakarta caused tragic loss of life, and also serious economic disruption and price increases (page 15)
  • Indonesia’s changing import mix: the growth of capital goods imports and the growing role of Asia (page 30)

 

December 2012: Policies in Focus
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Sections in this edition

  • Will rising minimum wages affect job creation in Indonesia (page 21)
  • Indonesia’s successes in disaster reconstruction and preparedness (page 32)
  • Building Jakarta’s resilience to frequent flooding (page 27)
  • Village infrastructure for basic service delivery (page 37)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Indonesia’s new Food Law (page 8)
  • Why has the depreciating Rupiah not had a greater impact on inflation? (page 11)
  • Developments in Indonesia’s corporate governance framework (page 13)
  • Labor regulations: a “plateau” effect (page 24)
  • The impact of the major 2007 flood on Jakarta (page 28)
  • Rekompak – community-led reconstruction (page 34)
  • A note on reliability in the Supply Readiness Rankings (page 38)

 

October 2012: Maintaining Resilence
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Sections in this edition

  • Indonesia’s manufactured exports: near-term, dynamics and longer-term trends (page 18)
  • The 2013 proposed Budget and the allocation of spending (page 23)
  • Drivers behind the rapid growth of government personnel expenditure (page 30)
  • The Higher Education Law, a milestone achieved but still a difficult road ahead (page 34)

 

Special topic boxes        

  • The Unified Database–towards better targeted social assistance programs (page 16)
  • Medium-term trends in Indonesia’s manufactured exports (page 20)

 

July 2012: Rising to Present and Future Challenges
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Sections in this edition

  • Drivers and implications of recent trends in Indonesia’s current account (page 21)
  • Identifying the constraints to budget execution in the infrastructure sector (page26)
  • Investing in Indonesia’s roads (page 31)
  • The role of the global marketplace in enhancing domestic competitiveness (page 36)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Commercial property prices have been increasing strongly, while residential price growth has come down (page 9)
  • The “China effect” on global commodity prices (page 20)
  • What is the current account balance? (page 22)
  • Do local manufacturing firms benefit from greater integration? Some case studies from Jakarta and Surabaya (page 37)
  • The potential benefits of input quality and variety for manufacturing competitiveness (page 40)

 

April 2012: Redirecting Spending
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Sections in this edition

  • 2011 budget performance – a brief review (page 17)
  • Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page23)
  • Building Indonesia’ social safety net (page 27)
  • Turning quantity into quality in education (page 36)
  • Gender equality is smart economics (page 42)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The proposed fuel price increase (page 6)
  • Fuel subsidies are highly regressive with most benefits going to wealthier households (page 8)
  • Looking back to previous fuel price increases (page 11)
  • Key features of Indonesia’s new Land Acquisition Law (page 22)
  • About Doing Business and Doing Business in Indonesia 2012 (page 24)
  • Indonesia’s household-based social assistance programs (page 29)
  • BLT and BLSM (page 33)

 

December 2011: Enhancing preparedness, ensuring resilience
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Sections in this edition

  • A 2012 Budget focusing on crisis preparedness and medium-term development (page 17)
  • The BJPS Law and the transformation of Indonesia social security structure (page 23)
  • Indonesia’s manufacturing sector: Floating or reviving? (page 28)
  • Innovation and R&D in Indonesia (page 37)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The passage of the OJK Law (page 8)
  • Crisis preparedness measures in the 2012 Budget (page 18)
  • The macroeconomic assumptions for the 2012 Budget and medium-term expenditure framework (page 19)
  • How do exports of manufactured goods respond to macro-economic incentives? (page 31)
  • Recent manufacturing pick up due to strong domestic demand and favorable international developments (page 34)
  • An improved investment climate can increase the productivity gains from foreign R&D spillovers (page 36)
  • Competitive research grants (page 41)

 

October 2011: Turbulent Times
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Sections in this edition

  • The potential spillovers from the deteriorating global outlook to Indonesia (page 17)
  • Using PPPs to address Indonesia infrastructure challenges (page 24)
  • Sub-national spending is not delivering (page 30)
  • Identifying constraints to inclusive growth in East Java (page 38)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Potential benefits of PPPs for delivery of infrastructure services (page 24)
  • PPP experience in India (page 28)
  • An overview of current transfer mechanisms in Indonesia from the central to subnational governments (page 32)
  • A brief introduction to inclusive growth diagnostics (page 39)

 

June 2011: Current Challenges, Future Potential
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Sections in this edition

  • ASEAN 2011: Indonesia’ Chairmanship (page 18)
  • The revival of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia? (page 21)
  • Addressing Indonesia’s infrastructure challenges to enhance competitiveness and growth (page 28)
  • Connectivity and the Master Plan 2011-2025 (page 32)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Recent rice price developments in Indonesia (page 7)
  • Indonesia’s potential in the multi-polar world (page 17)
  • Different sources of data on FDI inflows into Indonesia (page 23)
  • Optimistic outlook, but challenges remain: the views of Japanese-affiliate companies in Indonesia (page 26)
  • The literature on infrastructure and growth a very brief overview (page 31)
  • Geographical distance versus economic distance in Indonesia (page 36)

 

March 2011: 2008 Again?
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Sections in this edition

  • Recent rises in food prices and their impact on poor and vulnerable households  (page 18)
  • Indonesia’s fuel subsidies: past experience and lessons from other countries (page 24)
  • Indonesia’s changing patterns of consumption growth from 1996 to 2010 (page 31)
  • Looking towards a rising middle class in Indonesia (page 38)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Global oil price developments and Indonesia (page 2)
  • Nominal investment trends in Indonesia (page 5)
  • A snapshot of the changing patterns of Indonesia’s exports (page 8)
  • The case study of the evolution of Bangladesh’s food policy (page 22)
  • A brief introduction to growth incidence curves (page 32)
  • There are several measures of inequality which seek to capture the distribution of households’ economic outcomes (page 35)

 

December 2010: Maximizing Opportunities, Managing Risks
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Sections in this edition

  • Managing capital inflows: Policy options for Indonesia (page 12)
  • Quality of public spending and disbursement profile in Indonesia (page 16)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Moody’s puts Indonesian government bonds on review for ratings upgrade (page 5)
  • Allocation and spending for the Ministry of Health (page 18)
  • Enhancing internal control and supervision can improve quality of spending (page 19)
  • A brief introduction to the Jamkesmas program (page 28)

 

September 2010: Looking Forward
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Sections in this edition

  • Update on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (page 21)
  • Piercing together insights into the  movements in household purchasing power (page 26)
  • Medium-term macroeconomic projections (page 30)       

 

Special topic boxes:

  • Recent rice price developments (page 11)
  • The July 2010 electricity tariff adjustment : a modest first step to better targeted energy subsidies at a lower burden on the budget (page 17)
  • Focus on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) (page 37)
  • Severance Reform Options (page 43)
  • PNPM Generasi Target Indicators (page 49)

 

June 2010: Continuity Amidst Volatility
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Sections in this edition

  • High lending rates and net interest margins in Indonesia: The sky’s the limit? (page 23)
  • How the GDP deflator has diverged from the CPI in the late 2000s, and what this means for projecting the government’s revenues (page 29)
  • Commodity price movements are large and hard to forecast...and matter for Indonesia’s growth, inflation and public finances (page 34)
  • While commodity prices fluctuations mostly affect prices and the nominal economy in the short-term, there is some response in real activity (page 36)

 

Special topic boxes

  • How a stronger  Chinese Renmimbi would impact Indonesia’s economy (page 5)
  • A new tax on cocoa exports (page 19)
  • Climate change issues: land use change and forestry (page 42)

 

Mar 2010: Building Momentum
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Sections in this edition

  • Estimating the impact of Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus (page24)
  • The ongoing implementation of the ASEAN-China free trade agreement (page 27)
  • Capital inflows and central bank sterilization (page 32)
  • The impact of Indonesia’s ’20 per cent rule’ on the level and quality of education spending (page 35)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Identifying the regular fluctuations in Indonesia’s Financial Account (page 7)
  • The rise and fall of the international crude palm oil price has had a dramatic impact on export duties (page 15)

 

Dec 2009: Back on track?
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Sections in this edition

  • Some recent developments in Indonesia’s Economy (page 21)
  • Indonesia’s trade flows through the global crisis: from peak to trough and back again (page 21)
  • The rupiah since late 2008: the scale of its movement and the driving factors (page 23)

 

Special topic boxes

  • The economy’s slowdown in late 2008 and 2009 has had a disproportionate impact on VAT revenues (page 20)

 

September 2009: Clearing Skies
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Sections in this edition

  • Looking ahead – a gradual recovery (page 18)

 

Special topic boxes

  • Seasonal adjustment and enhanced economic monitoring (page 3)
  • The government’s proposed 2010 budget (page 26)
  • Estimating the impact of El Nino on poverty (page 28)

 

 

June 2009: Weathering the Storm
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Sections in this edition

  • The Impact of the Global Crisis on Indonesia: Looking Ahead (page 23)

 

Special topic boxes:

  • The government’s stimulus package (page 29)
  • Classifying expenditure types – what the terms mean (page 31)
  • A primer on trade finance (page 33)