Regional Economic Updates

Here are the latest bi-annual regional economic updates to explore the macro development trends in Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia.

These reports are issued the week before the World Bank-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings in Morocco, October 9-15.

Africa

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2023 from 3.6 percent in 2022. It is projected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025. However, in per capita terms, the region is projected to slightly contract over 2015-2025. The region faces many challenges, including a "lost decade" of sluggish growth, persistently low per capita income, mounting fiscal pressures exacerbated by high debt burdens, and an urgent need for job creation. Tackling these multifaceted issues requires comprehensive reforms to promote economic prosperity, reduce poverty, and create sustainable employment opportunities in the region. This will require an ecosystem that facilitates firm entry, stability, growth, and skill development that matches business demand.

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East Asia and Pacific

Most economies in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), other than several Pacific Island Countries, have recovered from the succession of shocks since 2020 and are continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace. While the region will benefit from a recovery of the global economy in 2023, high indebtedness, a slowdown in China economy, and trade and industrial policy in other countries will hurt the region. Looking forward, diffusion of digital technologies and policy reforms in the services sector is posed to create opportunities and play an increasing role in the economic development of the region.

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Europe and Central Asia

Economic growth for the emerging market and developing economies across Europe and Central Asia has been revised up to 2.4% for 2023, in the World Bank's latest economic forecast for the region. This pickup in growth reflects improved forecasts for war-hit Ukraine and for Central Asia, as well as consumer resiliency in Türkiye and better-than-expected growth in Russia because of a surge in government spending on the military and social transfers. However, overlapping shocks—the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, climate risks and more—present formidable challenges to the region’s growth.

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Latin America and Carribbean

The report estimates that the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2 percent in 2023, slightly above the previously projected 1.4 percent, but still below that of all other regions in the world. Growth rates of 2.3 percent and 2.6 percent are expected for 2024 and 2025, respectively. These rates, similar to those of the 2010s, are not sufficient to achieve the much-needed advances in inclusion and poverty reduction. Countries must find ways to promote inclusion and growth, improve governance, and generate social consensus. Digital solutions can be part of the answer. Expanding digital connectivity, combined with complementary policies, offers the possibility of creating more dynamic and inclusive societies.

Middle East and North Africa

After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region’s labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries.

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South Asia

At just under six percent, South Asia is expected to grow faster than any other developing country region this year—but slower than its pre-pandemic pace and not fast enough to meet its development goals. The region faces many risks to this outlook, including due to fragile fiscal positions created by high government debt. Countries need to urgently manage and reduce fiscal risks, and over the longer term, accelerate growth and create jobs in a sustainable manner. Countries need to encourage the adoption of advanced energy-efficient technology and take steps to protect vulnerable workers impacted by labor market shifts.

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