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World Bank Regional Economic Updates

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Africa

Fall Update Now Live

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Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is set to decelerate from 4.1% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2022, as a result of a slowdown in global growth, rising inflation exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, adverse weather conditions, a tightening in global financial conditions, and the rising risk of debt distress. These trends compromise poverty reduction, already set back by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) 

Fall Update Now Live

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Overview: English

Growth in most countries in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region rebounded in the first half of 2022, but China lost momentum. In much of the region, domestic demand revived after the distress of the COVID-19 Delta wave. In China, the public health measures to contain outbreaks of the highly infectious Omicron variant inhibited consumption. Most of the region is projected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022 than other regions. Beyond the end of 2022, three factors could be a drag on growth: global deceleration, rising debt, and policy distortions. Current measures to contain inflation and debt are adding to existing distortions in the markets for food, fuel and finance in ways that could hurt growth. In each case, more efficient measures could address current difficulties without undermining longer-term objectives.

 

Europe and Central Asia (ECA)

Fall Update Now Live

ECA Update Oct 2022
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Press Release:  English | Русский | Български | Српски | Hrvatski |

 Українська |Shqip

The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a massive human displacement crisis, adding to already historically high global refugee levels. Output in Europe and Central Asia is forecast to contract 0.2 percent in 2022, reflecting negative spillovers from the invasion. Escalating geopolitical tensions have triggered a possible energy crunch in Europe. If the war escalates, regional output could decline even further.

Executive Summaries: English

 

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Fall Update Now Live

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As the COVID‐19 crisis recedes, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is back to work and looking forward. Reported deaths related to the pandemic are low and have plausibly converged to global levels. Yet low vaccination rates in some countries leave them vulnerable to new variants. In most countries, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have fully recovered their 2019 levels, although forecasted growth rates might be said to be “resiliently mediocre”: banking systems appear sound, and rising debt burdens are manageable so far, but growth is not expected to exceed the low levels of the 2010 decade. 

 

South Asia Region (SAR)

Fall Update October 6

SPRING UPDATE

SAR-ECON-UPDATE
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Growth in South Asia, already uneven and fragile, will be slower than previously projected, due to the impacts of the war in Ukraine and persistent economic challenges. The region is expected to grow by 6.6 percent in 2022, a downward revision of 1.0 percentage point compared to the January projection. Countries in South Asia are already grappling with rising commodity prices, supply bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities in financial sectors. The war in Ukraine will amplify these challenges, further contributing to inflation, increasing fiscal deficits, and deteriorating current account balances. Governments need to carefully plan monetary and fiscal policies to counter external shocks and protect the vulnerable. The war and its impact on fuel prices can also provide the region with much-needed impetus to reduce reliance on fuel imports and transition to a green, resilient and inclusive growth trajectory. 

 

The Middle East and North Africa

Fall Update October 6 

SPRING UPDATE

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Press Release: English | Français | العربية

This edition of the World Bank Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Update estimates that the region’s economies will grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016. However, uncertainty reigns with the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine and the trajectory of COVID-19. Growth in the region will be uneven as oil and food importing economies in the region will be hurt on average, in contrast with oil exporting countries. The report also looks at the reliability of economic forecasts in a region where data transparency has long been an issue.