00:00 Welcome to Geneva.
00:01 Welcome to um colleagues joining us online.
00:04 The event today is titled Policies to create Jobs
00:07 and Community Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement.
00:10 It is a linked event to the Global Refugee Forum,
00:13 and it is part of
00:15 uh building the Evidence on Forced Displacement,
00:18 uh,
00:18 a research partnership program between the UK government,
00:22 the UNHCR and the World Bank.
00:25 Today's event will be about the findings from a global partnership program,
00:29 um,
00:29 and also we're gonna zoom in into uh two of the core studies,
00:33 uh,
00:33 two of the core research studies,
00:35 one on social cohesion and,
00:36 and one on jobs.
00:38 We're going to have opening remarks.
00:39 We're then going to,
00:40 uh,
00:41 go into the presentations,
00:42 and then we're going to have a panel.
00:44 Discussion,
00:44 uh,
00:45 followed by Q&A.
00:47 And finally,
00:47 we'll have also,
00:48 uh,
00:49 some closing remarks.
00:51 Without further ado,
00:52 as you see,
00:52 we have a packed agenda.
00:53 It is my pleasure to invite our
00:55 fragility,
00:56 conflict and Violence,
00:57 uh,
00:57 uh,
00:57 director,
00:58 Sukenya,
00:59 Sukeya Khan.
01:00 She will be providing opening remarks.
01:04 Thank you very much.
01:06 Uh,
01:06 nice to see you all and to be here in,
01:09 uh,
01:09 uh,
01:10 this Global refugee,
01:11 uh,
01:12 forum.
01:13 Really thank you for joining us,
01:14 uh,
01:15 today,
01:16 um,
01:16 and,
01:17 uh,
01:17 we'll,
01:18 we'll reflect on a subject
01:20 that is important to us,
01:21 building evidence on the forced,
01:24 uh,
01:24 displacement.
01:25 And
01:26 importantly,
01:27 we would like as well to
01:29 discuss some of the recent findings of,
01:31 uh,
01:32 the important partnership.
01:34 And I'm very grateful to UNHCR
01:37 um for hosting the Global Refugee Forum
01:40 and for being
01:41 a very strong uh partner in the collective effort.
01:45 Uh,
01:46 to ease the challenges faced by refugees,
01:49 IDPs,
01:51 and the communities
01:52 that host them,
01:54 including
01:54 through this research that,
01:56 uh,
01:57 a program that we'll hear about.
01:59 Thank you,
02:00 uh,
02:00 as well to FCDO.
02:02 Thank you very much,
02:02 Greg,
02:03 to you and your team
02:04 for your partnership and support through these past 7 years.
02:09 Let me
02:09 take a few moments to explain this research partnership.
02:14 Uh,
02:14 it has been so important,
02:16 and this event,
02:17 this GRF is an opportunity
02:20 to renew our commitment,
02:22 uh,
02:23 to
02:23 addressing the growing challenge of forced displacement.
02:27 We do forget that only 7 years ago
02:31 when the program started.
02:33 We did not know much
02:35 about the impact of forced displacement
02:38 on the people displaced,
02:40 on their hosts,
02:42 especially in low
02:44 and middle
02:45 income countries
02:47 where more than 7 out of 10
02:50 displaced take refuge.
02:52 Let me repeat,
02:53 more than 7 out of 10
02:56 displaced people take refuge in low and middle-income countries.
03:00 And it's difficult to design policies without data and evidence,
03:06 and through this research,
03:07 uh,
03:08 partnership we have
03:09 in our view,
03:10 filled a critical knowledge gap.
03:13 Today our data libraries
03:15 at UNHCR and the World Bank host
03:18 thousands of data sets
03:20 to support our understanding of forced displacement and what programs,
03:25 policies
03:27 work.
03:29 Building this evidence supporting the supported the
03:32 publication of 3 special issues on forced displacement
03:36 in 3
03:37 top economics
03:38 and social science journals.
03:41 Building
03:42 this evidence pioneered research and innovation in research methods.
03:48 Many of the studies were the result
03:50 of collaboration with organizations and researchers worldwide,
03:55 including young fellows who joined the program
03:58 from low and middle-income countries.
04:01 So we have built
04:03 a community.
04:05 Dedicated to producing evidence on forced displacement that can improve
04:11 policies and programs for displaced population and their hosts,
04:15 and I'm
04:16 confident
04:17 that this generation of research and scientists will carry on
04:22 what
04:22 this group has started.
04:24 So the program in our view has already led to tangible results on program and policy.
04:31 Uh,
04:31 let me give you some examples,
04:33 um,
04:33 and,
04:34 uh,
04:34 in,
04:34 in our program.
04:36 We have an impact evaluation on AIDA funded graduation program in Afghanistan,
04:41 and the program found that women who had participated
04:44 in the program.
04:46 Were
04:47 much better
04:49 across
04:49 multiple outcomes than women
04:52 that who
04:53 had not participated.
04:55 This timely evidence,
04:57 uh,
04:57 in a context like Afghanistan
05:00 led to the allocation of more AIDA resources to the program
05:04 to support
05:04 its scale up
05:06 up to more provinces in Afghanistan.
05:09 To share another example,
05:11 uh,
05:12 concerning policy,
05:13 a series of,
05:14 uh,
05:14 studies funded by
05:16 the program on Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Brazil
05:20 provided three first pieces of evidence on
05:23 the challenges that Venezuelans face in Brazil,
05:27 but also
05:28 their positive contribution to the Brazilian economy we see.
05:33 Uh,
05:33 refugees as a burden,
05:35 we
05:36 have to balance that
05:37 view with what their contribution.
05:40 So
05:41 a study looked at the
05:43 Roraima state.
05:45 Uh,
05:46 the state most affected by the influx of,
05:48 uh,
05:48 Venezuelan,
05:49 and then they found that the net fiscal impact
05:53 was zero.
05:55 The net fiscal impact of the influx
05:58 in the short term was zero.
06:00 The increased government
06:02 spending
06:03 was offset
06:04 by.
06:06 The increased revenue in
06:08 through indirect collecting uh tax.
06:10 So
06:11 this evidence,
06:11 for instance,
06:12 for was key for UNHCR
06:14 and the World Bank to deepen their policy dialogue
06:17 with the host government.
06:19 So,
06:19 today we'll have uh the pleasure and the opportunity to hear
06:23 from colleagues who have led the research in the World Bank and the UNHCR
06:28 and a distinguished panel of speakers including colleagues
06:32 who lived displacement experience,
06:35 UNHCR and host governments.
06:38 The focus of today's event
06:41 is on the labor market impacts
06:44 of forced displacement and what
06:46 programs and policies may be effective
06:49 to improve opportunities
06:51 for displaced communities and host communities alike
06:55 while maintaining
06:56 and promoting social cohesion.
06:59 The multitude of voices in this panel is intentional.
07:03 Effective policymaking requires
07:06 learning from
07:08 diverse set of,
07:09 uh,
07:09 experience,
07:10 and we hope that this uh collaborative approach will continue
07:14 uh as research on forced displacement expands.
07:18 Indeed,
07:18 as factors affecting forced displacement evolve,
07:23 so must research on the issue.
07:25 So I'm very much looking forward to learning more,
07:29 for example,
07:29 about the macroeconomic impacts of forced displacement,
07:33 but also
07:34 promising programs for early childhood
07:37 education and intervention to prevent gender-based violence.
07:42 So let me end
07:43 my remarks
07:44 by reiterating the World Bank's
07:47 commitment.
07:48 To working with partners to address the needs
07:51 of forcibly displaced people and their host communities.
07:56 We
07:57 have made substantial progress on developing the knowledge,
08:01 policies,
08:02 and programming response
08:04 necessary
08:05 to address forced displacement together.
08:08 And
08:09 as the issue of forced displacement becomes
08:13 unfortunately more acute,
08:15 partnership in
08:17 building evidence will continue to be critical.
08:21 Let us continue to work
08:23 together
08:24 in pursuing
08:25 solutions.
08:27 Thank you again for joining this event and
08:30 I wish you all a fruitful discussion,
08:32 and it's my pleasure now to invite on stage,
08:35 Greg
08:36 Houston,
08:36 head of Migration Department,
08:38 FCDO
08:39 for his
08:40 own opening remarks.
08:42 Over to you,
08:42 Greg.
08:53 Hello,
08:53 everybody.
08:54 Thank you,
08:55 Shikenya.
08:55 Uh,
08:56 thank you,
08:56 Paula,
08:57 uh,
08:57 and thank you for inviting us to this,
08:58 um,
08:59 really,
08:59 uh,
09:00 important,
09:00 significant event and
09:02 indeed,
09:02 um,
09:03 one of the first events of,
09:04 uh,
09:05 the GRF.
09:06 Um,
09:07 so,
09:07 years ago,
09:08 um,
09:09 we had in government,
09:11 a research department.
09:13 And the research department
09:14 would have a little box
09:16 at the bottom
09:17 when they wrote papers,
09:18 and they would send them in to policy colleagues like myself.
09:21 And that was for feedback.
09:22 That was for us to write something to send back to the research analysts.
09:25 And I had a friend who was one of the research analysts,
09:28 and he said to me over a coffee,
09:31 please,
09:31 please
09:33 don't write.
09:34 That is quite interesting.
09:38 The reason,
09:38 of course,
09:39 is that that is quite interesting.
09:42 Does not equate to
09:43 interventions and change and the reason why we all do what we do.
09:48 And that's part of the reason why this is so important for us and why we have invested
09:54 in this initiative.
09:56 Um,
09:56 so as the FCDO,
09:57 um,
09:58 we have provided around 12 million
10:00 pounds over the last 7 years
10:02 in order for us
10:04 to move forward
10:05 with research that's designed towards policy,
10:08 towards interventions,
10:09 towards how can we do things differently.
10:13 As a donor,
10:14 but also
10:15 in uh host states as well.
10:18 So forced displacements has long been a policy and priority and for us,
10:22 and generating that strong evidence
10:25 is really a base
10:26 for making better policy.
10:28 And as Sukenya mentioned earlier,
10:30 it's really important to cut through
10:32 the.
10:33 Emotion and the political noise
10:36 with good,
10:37 solid evidence base that we can,
10:39 we can take forward.
10:40 So,
10:41 we're gonna hear some great,
10:42 quite interesting,
10:43 but some great uh presentations later on.
10:46 I wanted to just highlight a few of the
10:49 um.
10:50 Elements that we thought were really important from the research
10:53 over the last 7 years that we have used,
10:55 that we have taken forward.
10:58 So the first is around
10:59 the importance of refugees being able to access
11:03 national systems,
11:04 and this avoids setting up uh parallel systems.
11:08 It is more sustainable
11:09 and can reduce the perception of uh unequal treatment uh by
11:13 uh host communities.
11:14 We talk and deal a lot in perceptions,
11:17 and I think that's why this is really important.
11:19 And there's some practical toolkits,
11:21 there's some practical things that we can take forward and use to help us do that.
11:25 And this evidence has underlined that
11:28 these national systems require donor support,
11:31 um,
11:32 both refugee and host communities,
11:34 and the importance of linking in
11:37 development finance at the same time.
11:39 And that's something that we've learned and something that is really important,
11:42 and it will be a theme for us through the course of this week.
11:45 So,
11:45 the research has also highlighted,
11:47 um,
11:47 the barriers to accessing systems that refugees face when living in camps,
11:51 uh,
11:51 with.
11:52 freedom of movement.
11:53 And so unpicking and unpacking that freedom of movement and how critical that is
11:57 to access um basic services,
11:59 uh,
11:59 is key to,
12:00 to durable solutions as we move forward.
12:03 And again,
12:03 I think we're going to hear a little bit more about that
12:05 uh
12:05 during the course of this session.
12:08 The researchers also provide really important lessons on inclusion,
12:12 um,
12:12 and how inclusive policies can be implemented
12:15 and how we can support,
12:16 uh,
12:17 social cohesion.
12:18 Um,
12:19 we have,
12:20 um,
12:20 some,
12:20 uh,
12:21 quite recent experience of that with Ukraine,
12:24 um,
12:24 which we were learning as we were going last year,
12:27 um,
12:28 and that's something that again is going to be a bit of a theme for us over the course,
12:31 uh,
12:32 of,
12:32 of this week,
12:33 and there is a real body of emerging research on that as a,
12:35 as an area.
12:36 And,
12:37 finally,
12:37 and I think,
12:38 you know,
12:39 sometimes
12:40 we're not as open and honest about this as perhaps we should be,
12:43 but the evidence tells us what works and tells us what is not working.
12:47 And that allows us to scale up what's effective
12:50 and to stop what's perhaps less effective.
12:52 And I think that's also really important for us to be,
12:55 to be clear about.
12:56 So,
12:56 um
12:58 Just to finish,
12:58 thank you,
12:59 all of you for engaging with this and for working on this as we move forward,
13:04 and these kind of events are also an important part of disseminating
13:08 um what works and what doesn't work and what we're
13:10 working on and what we should be working on.
13:11 So,
13:12 um,
13:12 uh,
13:13 we hope that there is a,
13:13 you know,
13:14 continued,
13:14 um,
13:14 close engagement,
13:16 um,
13:16 with the policy teams,
13:17 with the program teams,
13:18 with the researchers,
13:19 um,
13:19 and I look forward to,
13:21 uh,
13:21 listening more and,
13:22 and learning more about,
13:23 uh,
13:23 about what you're all working on,
13:24 uh,
13:25 going forward,
13:25 which will be quite interesting,
13:27 but it's more than quite interesting.
13:28 Thank you.
13:30 Thank you,
13:31 Greg,
13:31 uh,
13:32 thank you,
13:32 Sukena.
13:33 Thank you for sharing your,
13:34 your reflection and getting us uh started uh today.
13:37 We're going to go now into the presentations.
13:39 Uh,
13:40 we're going to have Paulo Verme who's joining us online.
13:42 Uh,
13:42 he's a lead economist in the World Bank,
13:44 and he's going to be presenting jointly with Tesabel Trammo,
13:47 who is the senior economist in the UNHCR.
13:50 Over to you,
13:51 uh,
13:51 Paulo.
13:53 First,
13:53 let me join Sukena in uh thanking uh the UK
13:57 government for sustaining us for the whole period of the program
14:01 and providing funding for everything we proposed.
14:05 uh,
14:05 and also thank the UNHCR for being uh
14:09 an incredible partner uh during this food period.
14:13 So thanks again.
14:15 Uh,
14:15 next slide,
14:16 please.
14:17 Uh,
14:18 I wanted to start,
14:19 uh,
14:19 as,
14:20 uh,
14:20 Sokena also mentioned
14:22 from where we were in 2015.
14:25 Uh,
14:26 recall that,
14:27 uh,
14:27 2015,
14:28 uh,
14:29 was a turning point,
14:30 uh,
14:30 uh,
14:30 in terms of forced displacement.
14:32 The Syrian crisis,
14:34 had been going on for 4 years.
14:37 Uh,
14:37 we reached what was called the peak of the EU migration crisis.
14:43 There was a new resolve on the part of uh political leaders
14:46 uh who were willing to put financial means into forced displacement,
14:51 but then again,
14:52 we faced a very old problem,
14:53 which was a lack of microdata and quality research on forced displacement.
14:59 Uh,
14:59 if we go back to December 2015 and we
15:02 count the number of journal articles in economics,
15:06 since the beginning of recording,
15:08 beginning of time,
15:10 uh,
15:10 we could find only 618 articles on refugees
15:15 and only 28 on internally displaced.
15:19 Um,
15:21 it,
15:21 it was a time where,
15:22 uh,
15:23 refugee studies,
15:24 forced displacement studies were considered a minor,
15:27 uh,
15:28 subarea of migration studies.
15:30 There wasn't much interest,
15:32 uh,
15:32 uh,
15:32 into these topics,
15:34 particularly in economics.
15:36 In 2015,
15:37 we also had the conditions to create this first experiment,
15:41 a joint partnership between the World Bank and the UNHCR,
15:45 uh,
15:45 to study the poverty and welfare of,
15:48 uh,
15:48 Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon,
15:51 which resulted in a book.
15:52 And that was really the turning point for us to
15:56 uh start a real uh research partnership with the UNHCR
16:00 where the UNHCR had a large amount of
16:03 volume of data that were largely unused for research
16:07 and the World Bank had the Expertise to,
16:10 to do the kind of research but did not have the data to do that.
16:13 So this was a partnership really
16:15 uh that uh allowed the synergy to take place
16:20 and we decided to establish a formal multi-year research partnership
16:24 uh between the World Bank and the UNHCR
16:27 and uh with uh our partner,
16:30 the UK government.
16:31 Next slide,
16:32 please.
16:33 So,
16:33 these are the inputs.
16:35 Uh,
16:35 the UK government has mentioned before,
16:37 put in $16.5 million into this project.
16:40 Initially,
16:41 it was a lower budget for four years.
16:43 It was extended to seven years later on,
16:45 so the period is 2016,
16:47 2023.
16:49 We organized the work in seven pillars.
16:52 Uh,
16:52 we decided to have global studies that would be relevant across the globe
16:57 on the refugees and IDPs.
16:59 and host communities.
17:01 Uh,
17:02 we set up impact evaluations for specific programs run by the World Bank,
17:06 the UNHCR or governments.
17:08 We thought about focused studies and
17:10 compelling questions that required quick answers,
17:13 uh,
17:13 during the period.
17:15 We established a young Fellowship program,
17:17 um,
17:18 a microdata initiative that eventually became the Joint Data Center,
17:23 uh,
17:23 and,
17:24 uh,
17:24 a data portal for FCV data.
17:27 And also very importantly,
17:29 an uptake,
17:29 dissemination,
17:30 and training strategy that allows us to make
17:33 all the findings of this program uh available.
17:37 Next slide,
17:37 please.
17:38 So,
17:38 these are the outputs,
17:39 and numbers.
17:40 So,
17:41 6 global studies,
17:42 15 impact evaluations,
17:44 12 focused studies.
17:45 We hired
17:46 24 young fellows.
17:49 Uh,
17:49 we collaborated with 200+ researchers across the globe,
17:54 30+ partner organizations,
17:56 uh,
17:57 and we cover 36 countries.
18:00 As mentioned,
18:00 the microdata program,
18:02 uh,
18:02 that we started in 2016
18:05 eventually became the Joint Data Center in 2019.
18:09 And uh we had seminar series,
18:11 newsletters,
18:12 policy notes,
18:13 a website,
18:13 social media,
18:14 and a training program that uh re recently,
18:17 some of you may be familiar with.
18:20 Uh,
18:20 the total output,
18:21 the number,
18:22 uh,
18:22 we,
18:23 we have at the moment is 144 self-contained studies which,
18:27 uh,
18:28 we published.
18:29 Uh,
18:29 of these,
18:30 we have,
18:30 uh,
18:31 already 36 publications in journals,
18:33 including top economic journals.
18:36 So these are the numbers,
18:38 uh,
18:38 next slide,
18:39 please.
18:40 You can see that we covered the
18:42 somehow unevenly different areas.
18:45 Uh,
18:45 we did a lot of work on social cohesion.
18:48 Uh,
18:49 on gender,
18:50 on labor markets,
18:51 uh,
18:51 some of the results,
18:52 uh,
18:53 you will hear them today in later presentations,
18:56 and,
18:56 uh,
18:57 we very much covered the,
18:58 uh,
18:59 most,
19:00 uh,
19:00 all the relevant,
19:02 uh,
19:02 geographical areas where,
19:04 uh,
19:05 forced displacement is an issue.
19:07 So these are the numbers,
19:08 but,
19:09 um,
19:10 you know,
19:11 next slide,
19:11 please.
19:12 If uh we really look at the
19:15 general contribution that I think this program had overall
19:19 beyond these numbers is really how
19:22 uh we as a
19:24 community of people working on forced displacement
19:27 have been able to um
19:30 change
19:31 the landscape of research and data.
19:34 Uh,
19:34 look at these numbers here.
19:35 Uh,
19:36 again,
19:36 these are the same numbers of,
19:38 uh,
19:38 uh,
19:38 published papers in economics journals,
19:41 uh,
19:41 from 2000 to 2023.
19:45 And uh you can clearly see the kink in 2015,
19:48 uh,
19:49 where the research on forced
19:53 forced displacement really took off.
19:55 Uh,
19:55 an increase between 2015 and 2023 of 466%.
20:01 That's unheard of in the research,
20:04 uh,
20:04 uh,
20:05 circles.
20:06 Uh,
20:06 and even if IDPs remain a very small area of research,
20:11 still,
20:12 the growth has been tremendous,
20:13 389.
20:15 percent over the
20:17 uh seven-year period.
20:19 So,
20:19 we live in a very much different world today uh of what uh we looked at in 2015.
20:25 When I was asked uh should we continue with this particular program.
20:29 Uh,
20:29 I said no because,
20:30 uh,
20:30 essentially we fill the gap now.
20:32 All research,
20:33 uh,
20:33 uh,
20:33 major research institutions,
20:36 organizations,
20:36 uh,
20:37 international organizations are now working on refugees and IDPs,
20:41 host communities.
20:42 They have the data to do that.
20:44 So,
20:45 really,
20:45 I think.
20:45 Our contribution has been to
20:47 uh participate in this uh um
20:51 uh
20:52 process of growth in data and research
20:56 that has really changed the tide on,
20:57 on forced displacement,
20:59 uh,
21:00 over the past 7 years.
21:01 Next slide,
21:02 please.
21:03 So,
21:03 some key general findings
21:05 and,
21:06 uh,
21:06 things that perhaps we knew in 2015 but we did not have the numbers to,
21:11 uh,
21:11 uh,
21:11 sustain.
21:13 Uh,
21:13 displacement crises have on average and in the long run,
21:16 positive economic outcomes.
21:18 We saw that,
21:19 uh,
21:19 in terms of improved well-being and also improved
21:22 labor conditions for many of the hosts,
21:25 uh,
21:26 although these average and long-term effects hide a much more complex pictures
21:31 with adverse effects being short-term,
21:34 localized,
21:34 and concentrated among vulnerable groups.
21:38 So,
21:38 this is really where the focus of our action should be.
21:42 There is nothing inevitable among negative externalities.
21:45 We know that where we intervene,
21:47 uh,
21:47 as international actors and governments,
21:49 we can make a difference and alleviate or eliminate these negative
21:54 externalities,
21:56 and policies that foster freedom of movement and freedom of
21:58 work reduce the range and duration of negative effects.
22:02 So,
22:02 we know that that works now.
22:04 We also know that graduation programs as
22:07 very popular programs promoting,
22:09 particularly by the UNHCR targeting the ultra-poor
22:12 households are effective in displacement context here.
22:16 So,
22:16 we have 3 areas of recommendations overall which we
22:19 put into these boxes.
22:21 One is continue collecting data and inform programs and policies.
22:25 2,
22:25 promote inclusive approaches while addressing host population's needs.
22:29 And 3,
22:30 close the gap between policy and practice.
22:32 Next slide,
22:33 please.
22:34 So,
22:34 very briefly,
22:35 let,
22:35 let me go through these,
22:37 uh,
22:37 these points.
22:39 We saw that progress has been made in,
22:41 uh,
22:42 data and research,
22:43 but there are a lot of different areas that still
22:46 require a lot of data and a lot of research.
22:49 Internally,
22:50 this place is one,
22:50 you've seen the numbers before,
22:52 but what about stateless people,
22:54 returnees?
22:54 There are a lot of pockets of people that we don't know much yet about.
23:00 Uh,
23:00 we need,
23:01 and the global studies have shown that very,
23:03 very well,
23:04 we need to systematically collect data and program costs.
23:07 Uh,
23:08 we,
23:08 we,
23:08 every time we go back to donors,
23:10 we are asked,
23:11 you know,
23:11 how much does it cost to provide this amount of services to,
23:14 to refugees.
23:16 Uh,
23:16 essentially we have very gross numbers.
23:18 We don't know exactly how much it costs and it's very complex analysis to do that.
23:23 We need to do much more of that.
23:26 Uh,
23:26 invest more in measuring impacts.
23:28 Uh,
23:28 so through impacts evaluations and other evaluation means.
23:32 A lot of progress has been made,
23:33 but when we look at the number of impact evaluations,
23:36 for example,
23:37 overall on the total number of impact evaluations worldwide,
23:40 we're still a niche
23:42 in this research.
23:43 We need to improve on that.
23:44 Next slide,
23:44 please.
23:45 Promote inclusion,
23:47 uh,
23:47 we are,
23:47 uh,
23:47 you have seen that we have done a lot of research on inclusions,
23:50 uh,
23:51 over 40 studies covered that topic only.
23:54 Uh,
23:54 we now know very well,
23:56 we have the numbers to show that freedom of movement,
23:59 right to work,
24:00 legal documents
24:01 are essential
24:03 elements
24:04 that should be put in place for refugees and IDPs to,
24:08 uh,
24:08 refugees in particular to thrive.
24:11 Mitigate negative impact on hosts.
24:13 We know that there are winners and losers,
24:15 as I said before,
24:17 we know we can mitigate that and we know how to do that.
24:20 And encourage interaction.
24:22 Uh,
24:23 the more we see interaction,
24:25 the more information flowing between these different groups,
24:28 better levels of social cohesion,
24:31 uh,
24:31 more alignment between perceptions and reality.
24:34 Next slide,
24:35 please.
24:36 And then close the gap between policy and practice.
24:39 Uh,
24:39 we have seen lots of policies,
24:41 uh,
24:41 positive policies by governments that then,
24:44 uh,
24:45 stumble on daily
24:47 issues,
24:48 problems that,
24:49 uh,
24:49 uh,
24:49 are solvable,
24:50 but they're not solved,
24:52 and this constrained the whole
24:54 policy and government policies.
24:56 We have to address the barriers one by one.
24:59 Improve communication about policies again we have to
25:03 uh have perceived an actual level of assistance uh to uh come closer to each other.
25:10 And to do that,
25:11 we have to improve on our communications capacity
25:14 and focus on key access constraints because we said that it's a major barrier,
25:19 for example,
25:21 uh,
25:21 to access health and educational services,
25:24 even when these services exist and are theoretically available to refugees,
25:28 host communities,
25:29 and other people of concern.
25:32 So,
25:32 these are the three areas of,
25:33 of uh
25:34 um
25:35 policy recommendations that uh
25:37 we were able to come up with and you can
25:40 read more in our executive summary of the final report.
25:43 Next slide,
25:44 please.
25:45 And let me conclude with some important areas for future research.
25:49 Uh,
25:49 macroeconomics was mentioned by Sokenya at the outset
25:53 of forced displacement,
25:54 things like inflation,
25:56 um,
25:57 you know,
25:57 GDP growth.
25:58 What,
25:58 what is the impact on GDP growth of a massive inflow of people.
26:02 We still have very little data on this,
26:04 on this,
26:05 uh,
26:05 um,
26:06 Uh,
26:07 statistics.
26:08 The impact on forced displacement on infrastructure and utilities.
26:11 I'm thinking about water,
26:13 uh,
26:13 uh,
26:13 sewage,
26:13 uh,
26:14 uh,
26:14 electricity,
26:16 uh,
26:16 all these,
26:17 uh,
26:17 uh,
26:18 very important utilities that,
26:20 uh,
26:20 particularly host communities use are impacted,
26:23 uh,
26:23 uh,
26:24 from,
26:24 uh,
26:24 for suspensement
26:25 crisis,
26:26 we still have very little data on these kind of things.
26:29 Environmental assessments,
26:30 climate change,
26:31 uh,
26:32 uh,
26:32 we do have a lot and there is a lot going on,
26:35 but still very little understanding on how
26:38 forced displacement crises interact with these factors.
26:42 Uh,
26:42 poverty and well-being,
26:43 we're in a much better position at 2015,
26:46 but still very little when we compare the
26:48 research that is done overall on poverty globally
26:52 on other types of populations.
26:54 Uh,
26:55 the long-term and secondary effects are very difficult to measure,
26:58 but they need to be measures.
26:59 We mentioned the cost of programs,
27:01 early child development in force disployment context,
27:04 psychological and mental health.
27:06 Uh,
27:06 there is now a,
27:07 a,
27:07 a very
27:08 Uh,
27:09 thrive in literature that is working on that,
27:11 but still small in terms of size,
27:14 gender-based violence,
27:15 and how to mitigate it,
27:16 and returns,
27:17 again,
27:18 uh,
27:18 an area,
27:19 uh,
27:19 where we could do much more for future research.
27:22 So,
27:22 thank you very much and thanks again to all of you for joining us today.
27:27 Hello,
27:28 colleagues.
27:28 Thank you for joining us today.
27:29 Thanks to participants online,
27:31 uh,
27:31 colleagues in the room.
27:33 And on behalf of UNHCR I'm,
27:35 I'm really,
27:35 uh,
27:35 glad to welcome you to this linked event for the GRF,
27:38 one of the first,
27:39 as,
27:39 uh,
27:39 Greg said.
27:40 And also to,
27:41 of course,
27:41 thank our,
27:42 our partners,
27:42 uh,
27:43 the FCDO and,
27:44 and the World Bank.
27:45 Uh,
27:45 this has been a tremendous partnership,
27:46 so
27:47 it's really,
27:48 uh,
27:49 our pleasure to be here today.
27:51 You know,
27:51 the challenge of,
27:52 um,
27:53 adopting evidence-based approaches in humanitarian settings
27:57 is,
27:57 is not new,
27:58 and we're familiar with,
27:59 uh,
27:59 many of the barriers.
28:01 There's institutional barriers,
28:03 uh,
28:03 short funding and program cycles.
28:05 There's contextual barriers,
28:07 rapidly changing,
28:08 uh,
28:08 circumstances,
28:09 and,
28:09 and the delicacy of working with governments in,
28:11 in crisis situations.
28:13 Um,
28:14 there's cultural barriers,
28:15 the challenge,
28:16 uh,
28:16 in the humanitarian sector of balancing the emergency response with the long term.
28:20 Uh,
28:20 solutions,
28:21 uh,
28:21 approach.
28:23 Long term planning for solutions.
28:25 But we're also in a moment of change,
28:27 which brings new urgency and timeliness,
28:29 uh,
28:30 to this work,
28:30 as well as new questions.
28:32 Uh,
28:32 first,
28:33 we're,
28:33 I think we're all aware of the global trends,
28:35 these growing humanitarian needs,
28:37 increasing food insecurity,
28:39 uh,
28:39 increasing anthropometric climate change.
28:42 Uh,
28:43 you know,
28:43 increasing the,
28:44 which increases the frequency of natural disasters,
28:47 and the majority of refugees who continue to,
28:49 uh,
28:50 you know,
28:50 live without the,
28:51 you know,
28:52 uh,
28:52 access to basic services and,
28:54 uh,
28:54 you know,
28:54 without the right to work.
28:56 You know,
28:57 these,
28:57 we,
28:57 we,
28:57 we know from,
28:58 uh,
28:58 slide,
28:59 next slide,
28:59 please,
28:59 Dina,
29:00 thanks.
29:00 Um,
29:00 we benefit from new opportunities.
29:02 So,
29:03 UNHCR and others in the sector
29:05 have made,
29:05 you know,
29:06 recognizable advances in our approach to development partnerships.
29:10 There's the global compact on refugees,
29:12 um,
29:13 there's UNHCRR strategy on,
29:15 uh,
29:15 engagement with development actors,
29:17 uh,
29:18 there's UNHCR's data transformation strategy,
29:20 uh,
29:21 of course,
29:21 there's the creation of the World Bank,
29:22 UNHCR Joint Data Center,
29:24 and,
29:25 uh,
29:25 the UNHCR micro Data Library,
29:27 to name a few.
29:28 And this has been accompanied by significant investments on data and evidence.
29:33 As you've seen,
29:33 research on forced displacement has made huge progress in the last 10 years.
29:37 Um,
29:37 a key element of this development has been the
29:40 partnership established between the World Bank and UNHCR,
29:44 uh,
29:44 first formalized in 2016,
29:46 uh,
29:46 with the creation of the FCDO funded Building
29:48 the Evidence on Forced Displacement Research Program,
29:51 which we're,
29:52 uh,
29:52 here to talk about today.
29:54 And more recently with the creation of the multi-dor funded World
29:56 Bank UN UNHCR Joint Data Center in Copenhagen in 2019.
30:01 At the same time,
30:02 uh,
30:03 you know,
30:03 we know that data and evidence alone are not an end in themselves,
30:06 and these investments must lead to better conditions for forced to be displaced,
30:11 uh,
30:12 persons and,
30:12 and the communities that host them.
30:15 And to do so,
30:15 evidence must inform
30:18 33 areas.
30:19 One is communications and advocacy.
30:22 Uh,
30:22 messages based on substance inspire trust.
30:26 Uh,
30:26 on policy decisions that weigh the cost of
30:28 action versus inaction and substantiate the trade-offs,
30:32 uh,
30:32 faced by hosting governments.
30:34 And third,
30:35 on programming,
30:36 where,
30:36 uh,
30:36 evidence can inform
30:38 better planning and targeting,
30:40 uh,
30:40 to allow limited resources to stretch further and
30:43 innovative approaches to be optimized and expanded.
30:47 So,
30:47 let me just speak very briefly about one
30:49 example of how UNHCR is using evidence in action
30:52 in our,
30:52 uh,
30:53 programming,
30:54 uh,
30:54 and that's in,
30:55 uh,
30:55 the advancement of targeted employment interventions,
30:58 uh,
30:58 to the ultra poor using the graduation model,
31:01 which has been mentioned a bit here today.
31:03 Um,
31:03 the graduation model approach,
31:04 as you'll know,
31:05 is now applied in many settings,
31:07 having been approved by,
31:09 you know,
31:09 scientific research,
31:10 all but,
31:11 uh,
31:12 that in refugee settings.
31:13 So,
31:14 to fill that gap,
31:15 as you've seen,
31:15 you know,
31:16 this trust fund has been used towards that,
31:17 and UNHCR ourselves together with the London School of Economics,
31:22 uh,
31:22 we,
31:23 uh,
31:23 got together to measure the impact of the graduation program in Mozambique
31:27 for refugees and host communities.
31:29 Um.
31:30 We also specifically wanted to explore how the program could,
31:33 uh,
31:33 improve or,
31:34 or
31:34 to see if there was improvements in social cohesion,
31:37 uh,
31:37 in addition to the sort of standard
31:39 employment savings,
31:40 uh,
31:41 you know,
31:41 uh,
31:41 financial inclusion aspects.
31:43 Um,
31:44 and we find the program achieves,
31:45 uh,
31:45 the,
31:45 the goals of improving financial security through employment
31:49 and promoting,
31:49 uh,
31:50 social cohesion.
31:51 And we're using this evidence to,
31:53 uh,
31:53 expand on the global refugee forum pledges that
31:55 are linked to the poverty alleviation coalition.
31:58 That was founded in 2019 by UNHCR,
32:01 the World Bank,
32:01 and a coalition of NGOs,
32:03 uh,
32:04 with an aim to expand programs using the graduation approach
32:07 for refugees and host communities.
32:09 And this evidence is being used to inform,
32:11 uh,
32:12 the design and,
32:13 uh,
32:13 you know,
32:13 the targeting and,
32:14 and,
32:14 and reaching beneficiaries,
32:16 uh,
32:17 and to help meet the target of the 500,
32:19 500,000 households in 35 countries
32:22 to be participating in the graduation program by the end of 2025.
32:27 So,
32:27 enough talking for me.
32:28 Let me,
32:29 uh,
32:29 actually,
32:30 uh,
32:30 show you,
32:31 uh,
32:31 the impact of the program,
32:32 and you can hear from refugees and host communities themselves in this short video.
32:36 Thank you very much.
32:40 Kemara nosakaza
32:42 logu
32:43 noshkoassa muja pensar
32:45 prukewa mjumorera kekwandu muntpaekipode nu ole
32:50 yagente continarikwaavida.
33:20 Mozambique is hosting close to 29,000
33:25 refugees and asylum seekers.
33:27 Out of that,
33:29 approximately 9000 call
33:31 Maratani
33:33 Settlement
33:34 their home.
33:37 It is a place that is quite dynamic.
33:41 We
33:41 envisage together with the government
33:44 to provide the needed basic essential services.
33:49 So there's a school providing education from the
33:53 basic level all the way to high school.
33:56 There is a clinic
33:58 that is providing needed healthcare services.
34:02 We have electricity
34:05 connected to the camp.
34:06 And uh we have uh many uh both young people
34:10 and elderly people who are involved in very many different uh
34:15 vocational and uh livelihood activities
34:19 so that they can be able to also support themselves.
34:28 While refugees normally account for a very
34:30 small part of the host country's population,
34:32 less than 1%,
34:34 since they receive humanitarian aid,
34:36 their presence is highly salient to their host,
34:38 particularly in poor rural areas.
34:40 Host communities
34:42 often perceive this as being unfair,
34:44 which prevents them from fully accepting refugees.
34:50 Elias.
34:57 This is the problem of social cohesion that translates into
34:59 refugees not being fully integrated into the host community.
35:02 So in,
35:03 in Mauritan,
35:03 UNHCR has been implemented,
35:05 the graduation approach,
35:07 which is a set of interventions
35:09 aimed at bringing people out of extreme poverty.
35:14 The program benefited both refugees and nationals and consisted
35:17 of providing a cash transfer of $1000 US dollars,
35:21 which is an equivalent to about 30 months of the average salary in the area.
35:25 The program further provided individual coaching on life skills,
35:29 skills trainings on language and financial literacy,
35:32 helped participants open a bank account,
35:35 and it helped participants find an apprenticeship
35:37 in the nearby town or start their own business in the refugee camp.
35:44 Two years after the beginning of the program,
35:46 participating refugees and host
35:48 increased their monthly savings by 600%,
35:51 their household income by 94%.
35:54 And overall financial security by 54%.
35:58 Overall,
35:58 we observed food security increase by 9%.
36:01 The program also increased trust in others by 21%,
36:05 and those Mozambicans benefiting from the program
36:08 indicate that they were 20% more willing to
36:10 share jobs and government support with refugees.
36:17 The muntas pesole Maratani kissabimuntashkweiza kika pastad the
36:22 the fazagu makoza boa it is involveroa agency
36:26 eotenakel medu zen porta indeed.
36:31 uh.
36:55 Noma
36:56 differentodanos a part.
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