This opinion piece was originally published in Turkish in Nasil bir Ekonomi Daily.
From Canada to Kazakhstan, Algeria to Australia, and Türkiye to Thailand, forest fires are raging with unprecedented intensity leaving a devasting impact on people, economies and natural capital. No longer confined to seasonal or regional patterns, the average fire is now becoming an extreme event, posing a year-round global threat and shaping a new normal.
What was perceived as a future risk, is now an urgent reality. In Türkiye, the extreme fires in 2021burnt over 139,500 hectares of forests throughout the year, killed nine people, damaged infrastructure and communities, and affected many sectors. Greece’s worst fires occurred in 2023, burned over 175,000 hectares, the largest in EU history. In 2025 alone, South Korea faced its deadliest wildfires on record, with 32 fatalities and 104,000 hectares burned, quadrupling typical annual carbon emissions, driven by climate-amplified dry and windy conditions. Climate models project a 14% increase in forest fire frequency by 2030 and up to 50% by 2100. In Southern Europe the probability of extreme fire seasons could increase tenfold. In Kazakhstan, the number of forest fires has increased 2.5 times over the past decade. These forest fires are deadlier, more frequent, and financially devastating, transforming an environmental challenge into a fiscal and macroeconomic emergency that demands international cooperation, risk-sharing, and strategic investment.
The human cost is sobering. Not only are death tolls increasing in recent years, but air pollution from landscape fires ( including controlled prescribed burns and uncontrolled peat and forest fires), is estimated to cause over 1.5 million deaths annually, of whom 90% are in developing countries. Respiratory impacts from wildfire smoke laden with PM2.5 pollution are more acute and toxic than non-wildfire PM2.5.
The economic burden is staggering. In 2015, Indonesia’s wildfires cost 1.8% of its GDP, roughly $16 billion. In Europe, wildfire losses from 2010–2020 averaged €8–10 billion annually, with peaks during extreme seasons. Globally, economic losses from wildfires between 2010 and 2020 reached approximately $82 billion, a fourfold increase from the previous decade. Insurance payouts for forest fire damages now top $10–15 billion annually, overwhelming public and private insurers alike. And the burden falls heaviest on countries with limited fiscal space and on poor, rural communities least equipped to recover.
This makes the economic case for cooperation and prevention even more urgent. Despite vast investments in suppression, the evidence is clear: we cannot simply keep investing in more fire equipment. A comparison of two nearly identical Australian forest fires—one in 1952, one in 2020—demonstrated that even with superior modern tools, both burned out of control. Suppression alone doesn’t work.
The good news: prevention works—and it pays off. It is more cost-effective than fire suppression and yields far greater returns. In Europe, every dollar invested in prevention can save up to three dollars, with many measures—like fuel management and early warning systems—generating over ten dollars in benefits. These are returns any finance minister, development bank, or private investor can support.
Integrated Fire Management (IFM) systems represent one of the smartest high impact investments available, combining early warning technologies, forest thinning, community engagement, and ecosystem restoration. Türkiye’s $400 million Climate Resilient Forests Project, supported by the World Bank, is a flagship example. It spans the full lifecycle of a forest fire – from preparedness and research to emergency response and post-fire recovery—while keeping forests and forest village communities at the heart of the solution. For every dollar spent, the project yields at least three dollars in benefits from natural capital like biodiversity and tourism-- and up to 14 dollars when including carbon sequestration benefits.
Given rising public debts, and shrinking aid budgets, financing resilience means spending smarter and doing more with less. A wide range of solutions exist—from ecologically friendly fiscal transfers, to scaling up innovative blended finance instruments such as forest resilience bonds, to exploring carbon markets. While some are ready to scale, others require enabling policies and institutions to be effective.
Forest fires recognize no borders. Transboundary in nature, their impacts ripple across air quality, trade, carbon markets, and water cycles. Addressing them requires coordinated global responses. Europe’s Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) is a leading example of this spirit of solidarity. Comprising EU member states and six additional countries, the UCPM routinely deploys resources to nations facing disasters—forest fires being one of the most common. Romania, whose crisis management and emergency response capacity was significantly strengthened through World Bank investment, has become a vital first responder, regularly supporting fellow UCPM participants. These kinds of cross-border emergency alliances are a powerful blueprint for wider regional and global cooperation. While coordinated responses on emergencies exist, what is needed is a globally coordinated financial and policy framework focused on resilient forests for fire prevention—one that enables cross-border collaboration, shares risk equitably, and channels investment into prevention, preparedness, and community-led solutions.
As climate-driven risks accelerate, the need for collective economic foresight and cooperation becomes undeniable. Countries must act together to make forests more resilient and reduce fire risk at scale. With the right mix of investment, aligned policies, and regional solidarity, we can safeguard lives, protect natural capital, and secure the foundations of sustainable economic growth.
This is not just a fight against fire—it’s a fight for economic stability, public health, and a livable future. It’s a fight we cannot afford to lose.
