KCP 20+ Event Series

The first KCP 20+ event will take place on Wednesday, November 2, and focus on two themes: i) conflicts and migration, and ii) climate and environment.

A complex web of forces — shocks, stresses, and imbalances — influences migration, environmental shifts, and climate change. Issues related to migration and climate change both involve the discussion of long-term forces, such as global inequalities and geographic differences, as well as sudden, short-term shocks, such as war, conflicts, or natural disasters. The optimal management of the dual nature of these issues remains a persistent analytical and policy puzzle. Most recently, climate-induced migration further exacerbates development concerns, as extreme weather events, droughts, water shortages, and sea-level rises intensify migratory pressures and amplify the magnitude of internal and cross-border mobility. How to better design policies that protect the most vulnerable populations who face the impacts of multiple shocks simultaneously also deserves much more in-depth discussions.

This 3-hour hybrid event will mainly be divided into two parts of discussions on the themes of i) Part I: conflicts and migration, and ii) Part II: environment and climate. Both Parts of the event will open with a presentation on the evolution of research and knowledge in the respective topic areas by DEC representatives. A panel discussion will follow, featuring diverse perspectives from stakeholder groups such as academia, WBG operations, governments, international organizations, and non-state actors. Given the connections of the two topics, the panelists would also be asked to comment on issues related to the linkage between climate change and forced displacement and migration. A question-and-answer session will be included at the end of each Part.

Speakers

Aart Kraay
World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist and Director of Development Policy, Development Economics
Aart Kraay is the World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist and Director of Development Policy in the Development Economics Vice-Presidency of the World Bank. He joined the World Bank in 1995 after earning a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University (1995), and a B.Sc. in economics from the University of Toronto (1990). His research interests include macroeconomics in developing countries; international capital movements; growth, poverty and inequality; institutions and governance; and applied econometrics. His research on these topics has been published in scholarly journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Economic Growth. He is a member of the editorial board of the World Bank Research Observer, former co-editor of the World Bank Economic Review, and an associate editor of the Journal of Development Economics. He has held visiting positions at the International Monetary Fund and the Sloan School of Management at MIT, and has taught at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Çağlar Özden
Lead Economist, Development Economics
A Turkish national and a professional migrant, Caglar received his undergraduate degrees in economics and industrial engineering from Cornell University and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University. He is a fellow of IZA, CreAM and ERF. His research explores the nexus of globalization of product and labor markets, government policies and economic development. He has edited three books and published numerous papers in leading academic journals such as American Economic Review and the Economic Journal. His current research projects explore the determinants and patterns of global labor mobility, impacts of migrants on the destination labor market outcomes, linkages between migration, trade, and foreign direct investment flows, medical brain drain and linkages between ageing and global economic integration.
Sandra Rozo
Senior Economist, Development Economics
Sandra V. Rozo works as a Research Economist at the Research Group at the World Bank (DECRG). Sandra’s main research focus explores the effects of forced migration within hosting economies and the role of public policies in supporting migrants and host communities; how firms' decisions change with economic and political shocks; and what are the consequences of violence and conflict. She holds a PhD and MA from UCLA, and a BA and MA from Universidad de los Andes. She is a IZA research fellow, a CEGA faculty affiliate, a faculty member of the Schaeffer Center for Health and Economics Policy, and a research fellow at the Center for Economic and Social Research at USC. Her research has been published at the Journal of Labor Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, and the Journal of Development Economics among other leading development journals.
Carolyn Fischer
Research Manager, Development Research Group
Carolyn Fischer is Research Manager of the Sustainability and Infrastructure Team in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Her research addresses issues of technical change, trade, and emissions leakage in environmental policy instrument design. She was previously appointed professor of environmental economics at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, held the Canada 150 Research Chair in Climate Economics, Innovation and Policy at University of Ottawa, and was the Marks Visiting Professor at Gothenburg University. She enjoys research fellow affiliations with Resources for the Future and the CESifo Research Network. She has served on the boards of both the American and European Associations of Environmental and Resource Economists, as well as expert advisory councils for research institutes in Europe and in North America, and is co-editor of Environmental and Resource Economics. She earned her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Aidan Coville
Research Manager, Development Impact Evaluation Group
Aidan manages DIME’s unit on Infrastructure and Climate Change. After completing his MSc in Statistics at University College London and MSc in Economics for Development at the University of Oxford, he joined DIME in South Africa, exploring the effects of a large-scale slum upgrading project implemented across the country. He’s a Senior Economist focusing on identifying sustainable, equitable and efficient ways to expand water, sanitation, electricity and broadband services with the aim of reducing poverty and spurring climate-compatible economic growth.
Michael Clemens
Director of Migration, Displacement, and Humanitarian Policy, Center for Global Development
Michael Clemens is director of migration, displacement, and humanitarian policy and a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, where he studies the economic effects and causes of migration around the world. He has published on migration, development, economic history, and impact evaluation, in peer-reviewed academic journals including the American Economic Review, and his research has been awarded the Royal Economic Society Prize. Clemens also serves as a Research Fellow at the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn, Germany and as an External Research Fellow of the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) in the Department of Economics at University College London (UCL).
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Deputy Director General, and Director of Department of Knowledge, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård came to Norad from the position of Research Director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO. From 2014 to 2021 he was a Senior Researcher, and later Research Director, at PRIO.

Dr. Nygård’s research focused on the causes and consequences of violence, social order, and development. His research on the development consequences of armed conflict and political violence, on dynamics of regime stability and patterns of democratic development, on peacebuilding and prevention and on forecasting and predicting armed conflict and political instability has been published in leading international journals.

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård has comprehensive leadership experience and has years of practice in decision making.

Dr. Nygård holds an PhD and MPhil in Political Science from the University of Oslo.
Björn Gillsäter
Head, the WBG-UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement
Björn Gillsäter is the Head of the Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement, based in Copenhagen, Denmark. Prior to this, he was the World Bank Group’s Special Representative to the United Nations in New York.   Björn joined the Bank in 2001 as Senior Advisor to the Nordic-Baltic Executive Director. He brings over two decades of experience of working on multilateral affairs, both as a government official with the Ministry of Finance of Sweden, and with several international organizations. Some of the other positions he has held include the Alternate Executive Director at the African Development Bank, the Chief for Multilateral System Analysis with UNICEF, the Head of the Multilateral Organization Performance Assessment Network (MOPAN), which is a function hosted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Björn has an M.A. in International Affairs from Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and Harvard Business School, an M.A. in Law and Economics from Hamburg, Gent, and Aix-en-Provence, and a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of Lund, Sweden.
Semih Tumen
Former Deputy Governor and Head of Economic Research, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; Professor of Economics, TED University
Semih Tumen is a Professor of Economics at TED University and a Research Fellow at IZA. He served as a Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy Committee Member, Head of Economic Research, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy, and Economist at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. His research concentrates on job search, human capital formation, education, migration/refugees, and social networks (mostly in developing country contexts). His current interest is mainly on investigating the education, labor market, and product market consequences of forced displacement. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago, MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from the London School of Economics, and BSc in Economics from the Middle East Technical University
Elizabeth Robinson
Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics
rofessor Elizabeth Robinson is an environmental economist with over twenty-five years’ experience undertaking research, particularly in lower-income countries, including six while living in Tanzania and Ghana. She focuses on climate change and systemic risk; and tracking the co-benefits of climate change mitigation and health, oriented particularly around food security and food systems. She was on the UK Defra Economic Advisory Panel for five years; and in 2019-20, Specialist Advisor to the UK House of Lords Select Committee on Food, Poverty, Health, and Environment. She is currently Working Group 1 lead for the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change. Elizabeth previously worked at the University of Reading, the Boston Consulting Group, the World Bank, Rockefeller Foundation, Natural Resources Institute, and the University of Oxford. She has a first class degree in Engineering, Economics, and Management from Oxford University, and a PhD in Applied Economics from Stanford University.
Carolyn Kousky
Associate Vice President for Economics and Policy, Environmental Defense Fund
Carolyn Kousky is Associate Vice President for Economics and Policy at Environmental Defense Fund. Dr. Kousky’s research examines multiple aspects of climate risk management and policy approaches for increasing resilience. She is the author of Understanding Disaster Insurance: New Tools for a More Resilient Future and an editor of A Blueprint for Coastal Adaptation. She has published numerous articles, reports, and book chapters on the economics and policy of climate risk and disaster finance and she is routinely cited in media outlets. She is the vice-chair of the California Climate Insurance Working Group, a non-resident senior fellow in the Brookings Metro program, a university fellow at Resources for the Future, a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute, and a member of the Roundtable on Risk and Resilience of Extreme Events at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. She was previously Executive Director at the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania, where she also directed the Policy Incubator. She has a BS in Earth Systems from Stanford University and a PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University.
Andy Hinsley
Economic Growth Research Team Lead, UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office(FCDO)
Andy Hinsley leads the Economic Growth Research Team in the UK’s FCDO and manages research programs to build the evidence base around how economic transformation and infrastructure investment can drive inclusive growth in developing countries. Previously, Andy led for the UK Government on development issues at the IMF and enjoyed postings in Nigeria and Zambia.

Multimedia

9:00 – 9:05AM	Welcome Remarks Aart Kraay (Moderator), World Bank Group Deputy Chief Economist and Director of Development Policy, Development Economics Vice Presidency
9:05 – 9:30AM	Part I: Conflicts and Migration Headline Presentation on the Evolution of Knowledge on Conflicts and Migration Caglar Ozden, Lead Economics, Development Research Group, the World Bank Sandra Rozo, Senior Economist, Development Research Group, the World Bank ➜ Presentation
9:30 – 10:20AM	Panel Discussion on Conflicts and Migration Panelists Michael Clemens, Director of Migration, Displacement, and Humanitarian Policy, Center for Global Development Björn Gillsäter, Head, the WBG-UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement Semih Tumen, former Deputy Governor and Head of Economic Research, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; Professor of Economics, TED University Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Deputy Director General, and Director of Department of Knowledge, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
10:20 – 10:30AM	Coffee Break
10:30 – 10:55AM	Part 2: Environment and Climate Headline Presentation on the Evolution of Knowledge on Environment and Climate Carolyn Fischer, Research Manager, Sustainability and Infrastructure, Development Research Group, the World Bank Aidan Coville, Manager, Development Impact Evaluation, the World Bank ➜ Presentation
10:55 – 11:45AM	Panel Discussion on Environment and Climate Panelists Carolyn Kousky, Associate Vice President for Economics and Policy, Environmental Defense Fund Elizabeth Robinson, Director, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Andy Hinsley, Growth Research Team Leader, UK FCDO
11:55 – 12:00PM	Closing Remarks and Conclusion

Shocks and Global Imbalances: Conflicts, Migration and Climate Change

Part I: Conflicts and Migration

Part 2: Environment and Climate

Part I. Conflicts and Migration

The evolution of knowledge

Connecting the past, present, and future

KCP and the next 20+ years

The role of research in development policy and practice

Connecting the dots: What does climate change mean for forced displacement and mobility?

Part 2. Environment and Climate

The evolution of knowledge

Connecting the past, present, and future

KCP and the next 20+ years

The role of research in development policy and practice

Connecting the dots: What does climate change mean for forced displacement and mobility?

Speakers

Event Details

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Multimedia

Shocks and Global Imbalances—Part I: Conflicts and Migration

Multimedia

Shocks and Global Imbalances—Part II: Environment and Climate