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The Stable Transformation Path

October 27, 2022
Kuala Lumpur Research Seminar Series

Dynamic models of structural transformation are often non-stationary, precluding balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. We develop a generalization of the BGP concept that we call a Stable Transformation Path (STraP). The STraP characterizes the medium-term dynamics of the economy in a turnpike sense; it is the non-stationary path toward which the economy (quickly) converges from an arbitrary initial capital stock. Calibrated simulations demonstrate that these medium-term dynamics have important quantitative implications for structural transformation, investment, and growth, including slow convergence. Medium-term dynamics alone account for the observed 40% secular decline in average growth rates across stages of development.

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  • WHEN (Kuala Lumpur time): Thursday, October 27, 2022 (11:00am -12:00pm)
  • WHEN (Washington D.C. time): Wednesday, October 27, 2022 (11:00pm – 12:00am)