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Low Inflation in Emerging Economies: Miracle or Mirage?

November 14, 2018

DECRG Kuala Lumpur Seminar Series

  • Emerging and developing economies, like advanced economies, have experienced a remarkable decline in inflation over the past four to five decades. Yet, research into this development has focused almost exclusively on advanced economies. This study provides the first comprehensive and systematic analysis of inflation in emerging and developing economies. It examines how inflation has evolved and become synchronized among economies; what drives inflation globally and domestically; where inflation expectations have become better-anchored; and how exchange rate fluctuations can pass through to inflation. In light of this analysis, the study then discusses whether the era of low inflation in these economies could be sustained. It emphasizes the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements in emerging and developing economies. The presentation is based on a new World Bank study: “Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies” edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge.

    Download the paper

    Watch and join us via Live Chat: Seminar will be live-streamed, allowing for online audience participation (only available during the seminar)

  • Ayhan Kose

    Ayhan Kose is Director of the World Bank Group’s Development Prospects Group. He is also a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He was previously Assistant to the Director of the Research Department in the International Monetary Fund. He has published extensively in leading academic journals. His recent work focuses on fiscal and monetary policies in emerging economies, and global business and financial cycles. He taught at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, INSEAD, and Brandeis International Business School.

    Jongrim Ha

    Jongrim Ha is an Economist in the World Bank Group’s Development Prospects Group. His recent research focuses on inflation in emerging markets, global macro-financial linkages, and global confidence cycles and spillovers. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University. In his graduate work, his main fields of specialization were macroeconomics, international finance, monetary policies in open economies, and time-series modeling. He was an economist at the Bank of Korea between 2004-2011 and served in positions in the Research Department, Financial Stability Department, and the Secretariat to the Governor of the Bank.


  • WHEN: Wednesday, November 14, 2018; 1:00-2:00PM
  • WHERE: World Bank Malaysia Office, Level 3, Sasana Kijang, No. 2, Jalan Dato’ Onn
  • RSVP: Kindly RSVP by Tuesday, November 13, 2018