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DAY 1 - MONDAY, JULY 17
8:30 a.m. REGISTRATION AND ADMINISTRATIVE BRIEFING (JVI)
9:00 a.m. Welcoming Remarks and Introduction to Topics of Day 1
9:10 a.m. Introductions/Ice-breaker Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
9:40 a.m. Introduction to Debt Management Strategy Design: Case Study: Presentation and Discussion of Scenario 1
Group #1: Antonio Velandia-Rubiano, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Group #2: Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
11:00 a.m. COFFEE BREAK
11:15 a.m. Case Study: Presentation and Discussion of Scenario 2 Group #1: Antonio Velandia-Rubiano, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Group #2: Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
Presentation synthesizing key concepts Antonio Velandia-Rubiano, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
12:45 p.m. LUNCH (participants’ own arrangements)
2:00 p.m. Debt Management Strategies of Four to Five Participant Countries (20 minutes each)
3:45 P.M. COFFEE BREAK
4:00 p.m. Debt Management Strategies of Four to Five Participant Countries (20 minutes each)
(cont’d)
4:55 p.m. Course Evaluation
6:30 p.m. WELCOME DINNER
DAY 2 - TUESDAY, JULY 18
8:45 a.m. INTRODUCTION TO TOPICS OF DAY 2
9:00 a.m. Measuring Cost and Market Risk Antonio Velandia, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Notions of cost and risk
- Time horizon and currency considerations
- General approach to risk measurement of a public debt portfolio
- Defining and measuring interest rate, refinancing and currency risk
- Risk indicators as strategic targets
10:15 a.m. COFFEE BREAK
10:30 a.m. Measuring and Managing Refinancing Risk Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Issues in measuring and managing refinancing risk
- Country examples
- Lessons learned
11:30 a.m. Measuring and Managing Interest Rate Risk Antonio Velandia-Rubiano, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Issues in measuring and managing interest rate risk
- Measuring and managing interest rate risk in OECD countries
- Lessons learned
12:45 p.m. LUNCH (participants’ own arrangements)
2:00 p.m. Hands-on Exercise: The Calculation of Risk Indicators Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Deriving the cash flows
- Indicators of interest rate risk
- Indicators of refinancing risk
3:00 p.m. COFFEE BREAK
3:15 p.m. Hands-on Exercise: The Calculation of Risk Indicators (cont’d)
5:00 p.m. Discussion with Participants on Financial Risk Management in their Countries and Use of Risk Indicators Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
5:25 p.m. Course Evaluation
DAY 3 - WEDNSDAY, JULY 19
8:45 a.m. INTRODUCTION TO TOPICS OF DAY 3
9:00 a.m. Links Between Debt Management and Debt Market Development Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Issuance strategy
- Money and repo markets
- Institutional investors
- Market infrastructure
- Regulation
10:30 a.m. COFFEE BREAK
10:45 a.m. A Primer on Cash Flow Modeling and Scenario Analysis Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- What is a risk model? Why is it useful?
- The structure of a simple scenario analysis model
- Model input, engine and output
- escription of the simulation process
- Implementation issues:
- How are scenario models used in practice?
- Off-the-shelf or in-house developed model?
- Scenario analysis vs. stochastic modeling
- Summary
11:30 a.m. Projecting Financial Variables for Scenario Analysis Antonio Velandia, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- What is scenario analysis?
- How to use scenario analysis; why is it useful?
- How to develop baseline scenario?
- How can risk scenarios be constructed?
12:45 p.m. GROUP PHOTO
1:00 p.m. LUNCH (participants’ own arrangements)
2:00 p.m. Hands-on Exercise: Scenario Analysis Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Projection of the borrowing requirements
- Generation of future debt servicing flows
- Alternative market scenarios
- Comparing different borrowing strategies
3:30 p.m. COFFEE BREAK
3:45 p.m. Hands-on Exercise: Scenario Analysis (cont’d)
Conclusions and discussion
5:25 p.m. Course Evaluation
DAY 4 - THURSDAY, JULY 20
8:45 a.m. INTRODUCTION TO TOPICS OF DAY 4
9:00 a.m. Measuring and Managing Foreign Currency Risk Antonio Velandia, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Why do governments borrow in foreign currencies?
- Risks related to debt in foreign currencies
- Quantification of foreign currency risks
- Implications for debt management strategies
- Choosing between USD and EUR denominated bonds
10:15 a.m. Links Between Debt Management and Macroeconomic Policies Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Policy objectives and instruments
- Asset and liability management (ALM) framework for analysis
- Linkages between debt management, fiscal policy and monetary policy
- Application of the framework
11:30 a.m. COFFEE BREAK
11:45 a.m. An Integrated Perspective: Framework for a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Framework for an MTDS: 8 step process
- Main elements in the strategy document
- Example of a strategy document
12:30 p.m. LUNCH (participants’ own arrangements)
1:30 p.m. Institutional Arrangements for Effective Debt Management Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
2:15 p.m. Managing Risks Related to Contingent Liabilities Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
- Defining and categorizing different types of contingent liabilities
- Framework for contingent liabilities risk management
- Country example of managing risks related to government guarantees
3:00 p.m. COFFEE BREAK
3:15 p.m. Case Study Preparation
Each group prepares a review of one (of a total of three) case studies for presentations on Friday morning
6:30 p.m. Course Evaluation
DAY 5 - FRIDAY, JULY 21
8:45 a.m. INTRODUCTION TO TOPICS OF DAY 5
9:00 a.m. EXERCISE: Presentation and Discussion of three case studies:
- Present the case to the group: (i) summary of background and (ii) questions to respond to
- Present and substantiate your position
- Open the discussion to the plenary after presentation
10:45 p.m. COFFEE BREAK
11:00 a.m. EXERCISE: Presentation and Discussion of three case studies (cont’d)
12:15 a.m. Final Course Evaluation
12:30 p.m. Workshop Wrap-up & Awarding of Certificates Rodrigo Cabral, Senior Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Antonio Velandia, Lead Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury, Fritz Bachmair, Financial Officer, World Bank Treasury
