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Events
The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones
April 30, 2015Macro, Trade, and Finance Seminar Series

Amir Jina (University of Chicago) will share the results of recent research.

Speaker: Amir Jina is a Postdoctoral Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Chicago. More »

Abstract: Does the environment have a causal effect on economic development? Reconstructing every country's exposure to the universe of tropical cyclones during 1950-2008, we reject hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth or that incomes rebound. Instead, we find incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. A 90th percentile event reduces incomes 7.4%, undoing 3.7 years of average growth. This effect has dramatic influence over the development of countries that are endowed with regular exposure to disaster. Applying future cyclone projections, we estimate the discounted cost of climate change is $9.7 trillion larger than previously thought.

PaperThe Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones

Last Updated: Apr 21, 2015

The Macro, Trade, and Finance Seminar Series is a weekly series hosted by the World Bank's research department. The series invites leading researchers from the fields of macroeconomics, growth, trade, international integration, and finance to present the results of their most recent research in a seminar format. The full list of seminars can be viewed here.

Event Details
  • Date: April 30, 2015
  • Location: World Bank Main Complex, MC10-100
  • Time: 12:30 - 2:00 p.m.
  • CONTACT: Shweta Mesipam
  • smesipam@worldbank.org