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Land Degradation in Central Asia


  • SOLICITATION NUMBER: 0002004967
  • INSTITUTION:  IBRD/IDA
  • ISSUE DATE AND TIME: Nov 02,2023 05:37
  • CLOSING DATE AND TIME: Dec 01,2023 00:59

Central Asia faces significant challenges related to land degradation; including desertification; soil erosion; and loss of biodiversity. This study aims to comprehensively assess the extent; causes; and consequences of land degradation in the Central Asian region; focusing on its social; economic; and environmental impacts and paying specific attention to a) Identifying and characterizing specific hotspots of land degradation; b) Quantifying the economic impacts of land degradation for the selected countries; c) Identifying the cross-country spill over effect of land degradation hotspotsd) Identifying the implications of land degradation for water and energy management. and degradation is a pressing concern that reaches across all republics of Central Asia and is increasingly affecting growth and livelihoods. Degradation is estimated to be extensive; ranging from 4-10 per cent of cropped land; 27-68 per cent of pasture land and 1-8 per cent of forested land; in total representing 40-100 per cent of land degraded in each country. Although the drivers of degradation so far are mainly due to economic activity; climate change is already adding additional drivers which are likely to be exacerbated in the coming years. Impacts of land degradation will increasingly entail spill over across borders; through supply chain disruptions; food insecurity; increased migration; and communal and international conflicts over resources; particularly water. In a context of projected extreme water scarcity; land degradation will impact water availability to the energy sector of CA countries; both directly and indirectly; through the policies and investments that each countries will individually put in place; such as irrigation schemes and dams affecting downstream water availability. In settings such as the Ferghana Valley (which is shared by Uzbekistan; Tajikistan; and the Kyrgyz Republic); exposure significantly exacerbates an already fragile and complex environment. Evidence from CCDRs suggests that the cost of failing to take action will be significant. For example; in Uzbekistan ; climate induced damages will cost the economy 8 percent of GDP by 2050 in the absence of adaptation. Strengthening adaptation in CA countries requires a deeper understanding of the dynamics of climate induced land degradation on growth; equity and sustainability; and of the drivers of resilience in the region. Policy makers’ attention to climate impacts’ effects on land degradation and its cross-boundary impacts and dynamics is however still in its infancy. The analysis will be conducted in selected hotspots. It will include among others: i) assessing impacts of land degradation and water scarcity not only on livelihoods and income but also on sustainability of existing and upcoming hydropower dams; ii) understanding the implications of land degradation and water scarcity for households (e.g agricultural production; income and poverty); iii) assessing cost and benefits of adaptation options; and iv) assessing the regional carbon storage potential and its relevance for the establishment of a future regional carbon market.The analysis will provide a district-level assessment of vulnerability and will quantify impacts on land degradation with a discrete picture of the local level vulnerability across Central Asia; the analysis will then identify areas at high risk of cross-border spillovers. The study further lay the ground to identify ‘hotpots’ of vulnerability where climate-induced water scarcity interacts with and aggravates land degradation; with implications for disaster risk and severity.  The analysis will make use of a methodology already developed; tested and piloted in policy-oriented research. The expected duration of the assignment is 6 months from contract signature.

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