00:04 The last 30 years saw a largely positive economic story for sub-Saharan Africa.
00:11 Economies grew and the proportion of the
00:14 population living below the poverty line declined.
00:17 Africa made great progress in health outcomes
00:20 and life expectancy has grown over the last 50 years.
00:25 Child mortality declined
00:27 and the chances of a 15-year-old surviving to age 60
00:31 improved.
00:33 Senegal and Ghana reduced stunting,
00:36 which is defined as impaired growth and
00:38 development of children due to poor nutrition,
00:41 repeated infection,
00:42 and inadequate psychological stimulation.
00:46 Stunting affects learning,
00:48 productivity
00:49 and leads to low wages in adulthood.
00:52 Liberia,
00:53 Rwanda and Malawi
00:55 were able to reduce under 5 mortality
00:57 by 2/3 in the last two decades.
01:01 Over the last two decades,
01:03 Kenya and the Seychelles have made
01:05 consistent strategic investments in health and education
01:10 with significant results.
01:13 Select countries record higher secondary school access
01:16 and completion rates than the regional average.
01:20 This raises the future productivity of current cohorts
01:23 as measured by the Human Capital Index.
01:27 Paired with favorable demographics,
01:29 these countries are well positioned to reap a demographic dividend,
01:33 driven by high levels of human capital to accompany other investments.
01:38 However,
01:39 there were significant differences across the countries in national income,
01:44 natural resources,
01:45 fragility and conflict,
01:47 and urbanization,
01:49 among others.
01:53 A key feature of Africa's growth experience has
01:56 been the diversity driven by regional heterogeneity,
02:00 with some countries growing faster than others.
02:04 As these developments progressed,
02:06 its population grew from around 180 million people in 1950
02:11 to more than a billion now,
02:13 and is projected to grow to slightly more than 2 billion people by the late 2040s.
02:23 Although the region has grown economically,
02:26 this was not enough to deliver rapid per capita income growth.
02:32 Africa is still the poorest region,
02:34 and lags in key human capital indicators,
02:37 like learning,
02:38 out of school children,
02:40 stunting,
02:41 and the proportion of youth with appropriate skills.
02:44 Still,
02:45 a significant proportion of children on the continent cannot read,
02:49 more than half of whom are women,
02:51 which further limits their participation in the labor market.
02:55 Africa is at a critical juncture in its
02:58 economic growth journey in a rapidly changing world,
03:01 driven by technology and digital advancement.
03:06 Jobs will be digitally focused and require new skills.
03:10 While global populations will continue to grow,
03:13 the overall growth rate is slowing
03:16 and the world's population is aging.
03:19 However,
03:20 sub-Saharan Africa's unique demographics offer both hopes
03:24 and risks.
03:26 With timely strategic investment,
03:28 sub-Saharan Africa has a real opportunity
03:31 to use its biggest asset,
03:33 its people,
03:34 as a key driver for growth.
03:37 Hope can be seen through a potential economic and demographic dividend
03:41 with changing dependency ratios,
03:44 but with a rapidly increasing population of young people
03:48 and workers who will need education and jobs,
03:51 Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region with an increasing working age population.
03:56 The youth population in India and China are declining,
04:01 while that in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing.
04:04 By 2075,
04:06 Africa will stand out as an extraordinary hub of human activity,
04:10 with almost a third of all people on Earth projected to call this continent
04:16 home.
04:17 The working age population is surging at remarkable speeds.
04:22 By 2035,
04:23 there will be 450 million more workers joining the labor market,
04:28 with only 100 million jobs being available at the current rate.
04:33 Sustained economic growth,
04:35 fueled by a youthful population,
04:38 will not be realized automatically.
04:40 It requires private sector partnerships and bundles of multi-sector,
04:45 time-sensitive policies for job creation.
04:50 These policies must equip youth with relevant skills in STEM
04:54 to meet the demands of future jobs.
05:02 These will be policies that keep people at the center.
05:06 Strategic and sustained human capital
05:09 investments can accelerate economic growth,
05:13 build resilient systems,
05:14 and strengthen social cohesion.
05:17 The East Asian tiger countries like South Korea,
05:21 Malaysia,
05:21 and Singapore,
05:23 demonstrate that sustained strategic investment in human capital
05:27 contributed to between 1/3 and 50% of all economic growth.
05:32 The miracle of the East Asian growth story
05:35 highlights the importance of investing in people.
05:39 There was an assumption that these economies grew before
05:42 the government had enough resources to invest in people,
05:46 but there is clear evidence that investments in
05:48 public health and education predated faster economic growth.
05:54 A healthier,
05:55 better educated population will contribute to faster economic growth.
06:00 As families become more assured that their
06:03 children were likely to survive and thrive,
06:06 they chose to have smaller families,
06:08 ensuring that households and governments could increase investment.
06:13 More educated parents were better skilled and
06:15 could contribute more to the labor market.
06:19 The experience of East Asian tigers makes our
06:22 understanding of what drives development more complete.
06:27 The old consensus was that investments in physical capital,
06:31 such as dams,
06:32 roads,
06:33 and irrigation systems were the main drivers of economic growth,
06:37 but the rates of return varied from country to country.
06:41 This variability was attributed to supporting economic policies,
06:46 including trade,
06:47 regional integration,
06:49 and enterprise ownership.
06:51 We have learned that robust economic growth and development
06:56 are a combination of smart physical infrastructure investments,
07:00 appropriate economic policies,
07:02 and timely and sustained human capital investments.
07:07 We've covered how investment in human capital accelerates economic growth.
07:12 So let's take a closer look at the next important accelerator in human capital,
07:17 resilient systems.
07:19 Robust development means countries are building national systems
07:23 that can withstand Shocks like economic downturns,
07:27 debt crisis,
07:28 conflict,
07:29 learning losses,
07:30 epidemics,
07:31 droughts and floods.
07:33 Despite sub-Saharan Africa's last 20 years of variable economic growth,
07:38 the region has seen frequent shocks and setbacks.
07:42 The COVID-19 pandemic is not the first health shock in the region.
07:47 The Ebola epidemic devastated parts of Africa,
07:50 and before that,
07:51 HIV or AIDS had a substantial and long-term
07:55 negative impact on all aspects of development.
07:59 Shocks at any stage of life,
08:01 be they economic,
08:02 climate related or health focused,
08:05 increase population vulnerability and erode human capital.
08:09 Shocks put households at risk economically,
08:12 requiring a more significant governmental response
08:16 to help stabilize the economy.
08:18 Sub-Saharan Africa is also especially vulnerable to climate change,
08:23 which will likely be more devastating to poorer households.
08:27 All of these shocks disrupt and reduce investments in human capital,
08:32 test government systems and stretch meager financing.
08:36 Human capital builds the resolve of households to withstand
08:40 climate shocks and contribute to a more livable planet.
08:44 Human capital investment for system resilience
08:47 can include social protection systems,
08:50 targeting assistance,
08:51 social work and services programs,
08:53 adaptive education systems and resilient public health systems.
08:58 Investments in human capital also help equalize opportunity.
09:03 Research shows that countries with lower levels of inequality
09:07 tend to experience faster growth and address inequality.
09:12 More equitable human capital endowments are important growth drivers,
09:17 and highly unequal countries experience growth
09:19 slowdown upon reaching middle income status.
09:23 A key lesson is that strategic human capital spending can reduce inequality.
09:29 A misdirected spending on human.
09:31 Capital,
09:31 on the other hand,
09:33 can increase inequality,
09:35 hence affecting growth.
09:36 The evidence is clear.
09:38 Equal countries tend to experience faster growth.
09:43 Human capital investments are central to strengthening social cohesion,
09:48 our final important accelerator.
09:51 Social cohesion is critical for every country,
09:54 but is especially important in the context of violence,
09:58 conflict,
09:59 and fragility.
10:01 The delivery of education,
10:03 healthcare,
10:04 water sanitation
10:06 and justice and security
10:08 provide the glue that binds a state and a society.
10:12 At a basic level,
10:13 providing a range of quality social services that address
10:17 the population's needs is an important step in building trust
10:21 in the role of government.
10:23 To strengthen social cohesion,
10:26 service delivery solutions should address and
10:29 correct inequalities across income groups,
10:31 ethnicities,
10:33 religions and linguistic lines.
10:37 Nations that make smart and equitable investments in human capital
10:42 through robust education,
10:43 health and social programs,
10:45 accelerate growth and ensure that women are
10:48 fully empowered to contribute to economic growth.
10:52 Evidence shows that strategic investments in human capital
10:56 and people set the stage for economic growth.
11:01 Africa's future depends on the choices made at this juncture
11:05 in its history.
11:06 The increasing proportion of young people need to be skilled,
11:10 and the right policies are needed to ensure these young people will have jobs.
11:16 We can shape our future with collective focus,
11:19 resolve,
11:20 partnerships and investment.
11:23 Africa is at a unique moment in its history.
11:27 How can we partner
11:28 to ensure Africa reaps its demographic dividend for growth and jobs?
- add-style
- lp-body-content