00:00 Joined the Africa region recently
00:02 as the director for regional integration and then
00:06 I have Stefan
00:07 Haigat who is uh
00:09 our lead champion on climate change in.
00:13 The bank,
00:13 he will discuss the CCDR of South Africa
00:16 and John Room
00:17 from South Africa
00:19 has worked a lot in South Africa but currently he is in South Asia,
00:23 so he may be able actually to bring also some linkages between South Africa
00:28 and some of the challenges in Asia.
00:31 So,
00:32 uh,
00:32 with no further ado,
00:34 let me turn to uh uh
00:36 uh Ayat
00:37 for her introductory remarks and then move to uh.
00:43 Thank you very much,
00:44 Axel and good morning everybody.
00:45 It's really a pleasure to be here.
00:49 OK,
00:49 can you hear me now?
00:50 Yes,
00:51 it's a pleasure to be here and it's a great example.
00:54 The CCDR is a great example
00:56 of the collaborative way in which,
00:58 uh,
00:59 the analysis for the report was conducted
01:02 and
01:02 the reason that it was so collaborative was because
01:05 it built on a national dialogue that South Africa,
01:07 uh,
01:08 as a,
01:08 as a government,
01:09 as a country embarked on more than a decade ago
01:12 and,
01:12 um,
01:13 that dialogue.
01:13 Of that national dialogue,
01:14 the knowledge platforms and the research that the country has embarked on
01:19 has really helped
01:20 the CCDR team when they were about to,
01:23 uh,
01:23 launch uh uh the work and
01:25 actually a number of action steps and
01:27 national strategies have taken place over the decade
01:31 that really enabled that research to be launched very,
01:33 very effectively and I wanted to share just a few
01:36 examples of the recent.
01:39 Key actions that the government has taken
01:41 that have enabled that and that have been key
01:44 to the progress made on the climate change dialogue.
01:47 In 2020,
01:48 the government of South Africa has launched
01:51 or set up the Presidential Climate commission.
01:54 It's an advisory body that is chaired by the president of the country,
01:58 uh,
01:58 President Ramaphosa,
01:59 and it was really put in place
02:02 to
02:04 enable a national,
02:05 uh,
02:05 platform
02:06 for developing a vision towards a just
02:09 transition for low carbon development and low carbon
02:12 transition and also resilient climate.
02:14 Economic growth by 2050
02:17 and the presidential commission
02:19 has uh uh
02:20 in in its process of establishing that dialogue done extensive consultations
02:25 and has come up with the just
02:27 transition framework
02:29 that has just been approved
02:31 uh by the cabinet in 2020 in August of 2020.
02:35 And together with the just energy transition investment plan
02:39 that the country also developed and the climate change bill
02:42 which is currently being reviewed by parliament,
02:46 they put together the framework for a people-centered vision for climate change
02:51 over the next two.
02:53 Decades,
02:54 so it was in this context of a very rich national dialogue,
02:58 uh,
02:58 a big involvement by multiple stakeholders in academia,
03:01 in knowledge,
03:02 in civil society
03:03 that the team of the CCDR was able to
03:07 benefit from that platform and build a very collaborative approach
03:11 for the analysis.
03:12 It took 12 months of extensive.
03:14 Consultations
03:15 with various stakeholders,
03:17 but we believe that the final product for this CCDR is much richer because of this,
03:23 uh,
03:23 strong collaboration in the development
03:25 and as you said Axel this we are also very pleased with this CCDR in a very timely way
03:31 because it does shed light on two
03:33 very important elements.
03:34 Elements of the transition for South Africa
03:37 low carbon transition and the exit from coal,
03:40 as well as strong resilience elements and how do you build
03:44 on adaptation
03:45 in the coming two decades to build the resilience of the economy.
03:49 So without further ado I wanna hand it over to Stefan
03:52 to run us through the elements of the report.
03:56 Thank you very much Ayat and uh I'll ask you to put the slides on please
04:01 um so let me start by saying that I'm speaking on behalf of a very large team
04:05 um and I know some of them are connected and
04:08 and and might want to be able to answer uh questions
04:11 along this uh this session,
04:12 but let me
04:13 jump in directly into the the CCDR content.
04:17 CCDRs,
04:18 as,
04:18 um,
04:19 Axel mentioned,
04:20 are not only climate reports,
04:22 they are development reports.
04:24 And as such
04:25 we're starting from the development challenges that countries meet
04:29 in the case of South Africa,
04:30 of course
04:31 the economic challenge
04:33 is
04:33 there
04:34 first,
04:35 low economic growth in the last decade,
04:38 a very high level
04:39 of inequality,
04:40 and of course very large unemployment.
04:43 So anything we do on climate
04:45 has to be designed in that context
04:47 and help
04:48 support solving those economic challenges,
04:51 but the country also faces.
04:54 Climate-related issues.
04:56 First,
04:57 the mitigation challenge.
05:00 And of course
05:02 South Africa is one of the most
05:05 carbon intensive country in the world
05:07 with a very high dependency to coal,
05:09 so in a world that is decarbonizing,
05:11 the country has a long way to go to catch up.
05:15 Also,
05:15 the country is in an energy crisis
05:18 with a lot of load shedding at the moment that costs
05:20 the country by some estimates up to $200 million a day.
05:25 So a big mitigation challenge,
05:27 but of course
05:29 also adaptation issues and resilience issues.
05:32 We all have in mind the water crisis in Cape Town a few years ago,
05:37 but the country also faces
05:39 increasing heat waves
05:41 and floods,
05:42 especially in cities in the country.
05:45 So
05:46 3 challenges
05:48 and the CCDR is trying to find solutions,
05:50 proposed options
05:52 to tackle the 3 together
05:54 and doing that by
05:56 looking at 3 interconnected transitions.
05:59 Uh,
06:00 a low carbon path.
06:02 An adaptation and resilience path
06:05 and of course the just transition so
06:06 important in the country because of the inequalities
06:09 and unemployment.
06:12 The first message is
06:14 on the low carbon transition
06:16 and the fact that even though reducing emissions in
06:19 South Africa is contributing to global public goods,
06:22 it's not the first reason to do it.
06:24 The country has a self-interest.
06:28 In moving
06:28 toward renewable and away from coal,
06:31 let me dig in a little bit.
06:32 The CCDR used
06:34 one path
06:35 towards
06:37 in 2050 about net zero,
06:39 and this emission path that you see here
06:42 has action on the power sector,
06:43 of course,
06:44 but also then on transportation industries and all
06:47 of the other sectors of the economy.
06:49 And of course in South Africa today the power sector is front and center.
06:54 Again,
06:55 the CCDR found that today
06:57 the least cost and quickest option
07:00 to increase power generation
07:03 and meet the needs of the growing energy demand in the country
07:07 is to invest in renewable energy.
07:09 But of course doing that would require
07:12 a lot of things and first,
07:14 large investments
07:15 in renewable capacity itself,
07:17 but also in the grid transmission and distribution
07:20 and in energy efficiency across the economy.
07:24 And of course as you can see in this figure,
07:26 it means
07:27 moving away from coal,
07:28 which in itself creates some challenges that I will come back to in a minute.
07:34 The macroeconomic implications of this transition is uh
07:37 uh one of the big focus of the CCDR
07:40 which shows that lowering emissions in the country
07:43 could help increase economic growth
07:46 in the country,
07:47 getting it to 2.3% per year
07:49 over the whole period.
07:51 So
07:52 climate action in that case is really
07:53 contributing to fixing the economic challenge.
07:56 However,
07:57 the CCDR is very clear
07:59 climate action in itself cannot replace
08:02 the growth enhancing reforms that the country needs,
08:05 especially to tackle unemployment and inequality,
08:08 so it helps,
08:10 but it's not the whole story.
08:12 The second message is that even though
08:15 the country can benefit in aggregate
08:17 that transition,
08:19 it creates a lot of changes in the labor market with a lot of challenges.
08:23 What you see here is
08:25 a figure with the job loss
08:28 and the job gains in the country
08:30 and you see of course
08:31 sectors like coal are losing jobs in that transition.
08:34 Other sectors like electricity are gaining.
08:37 If you make the total,
08:39 it's a net gain,
08:40 but of course it doesn't mean it's necessarily easy to do this transition,
08:44 and there are 3 challenges
08:45 a timing challenge.
08:47 Some of the jobs are created after some jobs are destroyed,
08:50 a location challenge,
08:52 those jobs are not in the same place,
08:54 and a skill challenge
08:56 because workers cannot move directly from one job to
08:58 the other if the skill set is completely different,
09:01 and I'll come back to the measures that needs to be implemented to make that happen.
09:05 There is
09:06 a specific challenge
09:08 in the Mmpalanga province.
09:10 Most of the coal assets of the country are located in that region,
09:14 and of course it creates specific challenges for the transition.
09:17 And the CCDR proposed to create a road map
09:19 with an implementation plan to help that province,
09:22 building on
09:24 support to the workers that are affected,
09:26 um,
09:27 very active labor policies to facilitate the shift,
09:30 and the support to small companies,
09:33 especially to help them transition.
09:36 A third message is.
09:38 On climate impacts
09:40 and here
09:42 everybody will be affected in the country by climate change,
09:44 of course,
09:44 like all of us,
09:45 but like always
09:47 poor people will be more affected than the average.
09:50 The CCDR
09:51 looks at different regions and find that
09:54 the poorest provinces
09:55 will be more affected by climate change than the rest of the country.
09:59 And highlight a few priorities for action
10:01 from better early warning systems and weather forecasts
10:05 to prioritizing resilience in infrastructure investments,
10:10 building an insurance
10:11 market to help people and firms manage disasters,
10:15 and make the social protection system better able to respond to shocks
10:18 so that when somebody is affected by a drought or a flood,
10:21 she gets the support she needs to recover.
10:25 I won't go into the details of all
10:26 of the adaptation measures that the CCDR discusses.
10:29 As you know,
10:30 adaptation is challenging because it's,
10:31 you need so many things to build resilience.
10:33 It's not one big solution,
10:35 but the CCDR looks at water,
10:38 agriculture,
10:38 cities,
10:38 and transport,
10:39 making very concrete recommendations
10:41 and flagging the need to coordinate because of course
10:44 what happens in water and agriculture is strongly connected.
10:48 So
10:49 a lot of recommendations now how do we make it happen?
10:52 And here I want to talk about finance
10:54 and institutions,
10:55 but finance first.
10:57 So the CCDR estimates the needs at 4.4%
11:01 of the country's GDP.
11:03 So it's a very
11:05 high
11:05 need
11:06 and
11:07 if you wonder how it fits compared with other countries,
11:10 this is an extract from our CCDR synthesis that collects the data of all of the CCDRs.
11:15 South Africa is in the middle,
11:16 so in terms of
11:17 the fraction of GDP that needs to be invested,
11:20 it's not an outlier,
11:22 but compared with China that we just discussed,
11:24 the country has a saving challenge,
11:27 so less resources
11:28 makes it more difficult to meet that bar.
11:31 The CCDL is making recommendations on how to close that gap.
11:36 First,
11:36 encouraging private investment,
11:38 and that's a combination of enabling environments,
11:40 pricing,
11:41 subsidy reforms and regulations,
11:43 increasing public financing
11:45 for the just transition,
11:46 which should be a priority,
11:48 but also the enabling environment like the grid so that renewables can enter.
11:52 And finally,
11:54 because of the lack of savings,
11:55 external resources will play a critical role
11:58 and it's a whole set of things.
12:01 Of course multilateral and bilateral development partners,
12:04 but also
12:05 using
12:06 external institutional investors with with climate bonds for instance
12:11 and the the CCDR makes a very strong case for
12:13 the role of grants and concessional loans in the country
12:17 for affordability reasons because of the lack of savings,
12:20 but also because climate change is a global public goods and the costs,
12:24 for instance,
12:24 to exit coal
12:25 needs to be shared globally.
12:28 My last point is on institutions because finance is an obstacle,
12:30 but very often CCDRs show that institutions are
12:33 also really important and a big obstacle.
12:35 The CCDR talks about
12:37 state-owned enterprise and how their governance needs to change,
12:40 and they're responsible for a large share of emissions
12:43 and also the role of the climate change bill,
12:45 importance of the coordination across sectors.
12:48 Capacity building and very importantly
12:51 and the the the PCC is playing a key role in that
12:54 participation so that you build a country consensus on how to achieve those goals.
12:58 So I'll stop here.
12:59 Thank you very much for your attention and
13:01 I'm really looking forward to the discussion.
13:07 Thank you very much,
13:08 Stefan.
13:09 Um,
13:09 we will move now to our two distinguished panelists,
13:12 and I will give you the floor first,
13:15 Ritu Mitze,
13:16 and welcome to,
13:18 um,
13:18 this launch.
13:19 The report itself was launched last week also in South Africa,
13:23 and you saw in the last part of it
13:25 that there is a lot of thinking about what it takes to get actually
13:29 this.
13:29 Transition to happen low carbon development and resilience
13:33 and the private sector you represent the private sector
13:35 from the National Business Initiative of South Africa.
13:38 The private sector will have an important role to play.
13:40 It is a source
13:41 of the problem sometimes but it also can be a source of the solution
13:45 and so the question is how can we incentivize
13:47 the private sector in the context of South Africa
13:50 and beyond to play its role and.
13:52 To go towards
13:54 uh a low carbon
13:55 transition and and developing uh these solutions in the
13:58 distribution systems in the production systems but also perhaps
14:02 giving uh uh a sense to the government on
14:04 how what kind of key policy reforms would be needed
14:08 for the private sector to play its role.
14:13 Yeah.
14:15 Thank you very much for,
14:16 for the introduction,
14:17 for the opportunity and uh congratulations on the report.
14:21 Um,
14:21 yeah,
14:21 it's been wonderful reading.
14:23 Just reflections on,
14:24 I think the role of the business community in driving this transition,
14:28 um,
14:28 and you were talking about incentivization.
14:31 You know,
14:31 we've just completed work on
14:34 really trying to understand at a sectoral level what what sort
14:37 of interventions are required to shift the South African economy.
14:40 But I think very importantly,
14:41 working very closely with business.
14:44 So,
14:44 so really business was,
14:46 um,
14:46 you know,
14:47 the,
14:47 the community that we drew upon,
14:49 I think both to internalize the kinds of changes that were required.
14:52 To invest in what,
14:54 you know,
14:54 the amount of work that's going to be required as well going forward.
14:57 Um,
14:57 but also bringing in other stakeholders.
14:59 I think one to build
15:01 a common understanding of
15:03 the enormity of the challenge,
15:04 but also to engender this understanding that it,
15:07 it is possible.
15:08 So building and understanding what the solutions and
15:10 the interventions need to be with business.
15:13 And in having that conversation and doing that work,
15:16 we,
15:16 we,
15:16 we had
15:17 something like over 400 hours of stakeholder engagements,
15:20 um,
15:21 many,
15:21 many workshops,
15:22 uh,
15:23 yeah,
15:23 many,
15:23 many years of technical working groups and conversations.
15:27 Um,
15:27 what was clear is that
15:28 not transitioning.
15:30 Uh,
15:31 is,
15:31 is a huge economic cost.
15:33 Um,
15:33 it's,
15:34 it's,
15:34 it's a huge economic and competitiveness
15:37 imperative
15:38 to be able to to transition.
15:40 So I think that
15:41 in of itself is,
15:42 is the main incentive.
15:44 That if we don't move as a business community,
15:47 if we don't integrate the business
15:49 voice and really moving the entire country.
15:51 Forward,
15:52 building a competitiveness,
15:53 the ability to,
15:54 to adapt,
15:55 to be resilient to,
15:56 to climate shocks.
15:57 Um,
15:58 we,
15:58 we stand to lose a huge amount from the jobs perspective,
16:01 from GDP in addition to the broader social,
16:04 um,
16:04 and economic imperatives.
16:06 So that was the one,
16:07 I think half of that conversation that we stand to lose.
16:10 So that should motivate us to start moving.
16:13 But then the second part is
16:15 the opportunities that sit in transitioning and and
16:18 being able to build a stronger economy,
16:20 one that is more responsive to what is happening globally as well
16:23 as a taker of global change.
16:25 There are opportunities that are
16:26 opening up,
16:27 um,
16:27 in which the business community can be quite active.
16:30 And I think at the same time respond to many of the challenges that you highlighted,
16:34 uh,
16:34 in terms of the
16:36 the the social issues that we face as a country.
16:39 louder.
16:39 OK.
16:40 Thank you.
16:41 So,
16:41 so this has been a very important part
16:43 to understand that it is in our interests
16:46 to be able to transition,
16:47 but that there are so many opportunities to take the country forward.
16:52 Uh,
16:52 but also at the business level,
16:54 so many,
16:55 you know,
16:55 opportunities from building competitiveness to accessing additional markets
17:00 to diversifying and strengthening the economy.
17:02 And,
17:02 and I think those have been the two components that we've used.
17:06 As a basis to drive the conversations that we've had,
17:09 uh,
17:09 with business in the lead,
17:10 but with other key stakeholders in the room,
17:13 really building that consensus base of what needs to be done.
17:16 And so I think also from a from a policy perspective,
17:19 from
17:20 building that enabling,
17:21 you know,
17:21 infrastructure and where reports like the CCDR reports
17:25 have been key,
17:26 but the work that we've done
17:27 on our just transition pathways
17:29 has been to build a very strong information base.
17:33 To have a central,
17:35 most well-recognized point from which we can
17:38 start making decisions,
17:40 um,
17:40 and really coming together around the table to,
17:42 to,
17:42 to take things forward,
17:44 to,
17:44 to build the partnerships,
17:46 to start working on very practical implementation imperatives,
17:49 um,
17:49 and understanding the degree of coordination that's required.
17:52 Across the economy,
17:54 we really do need those multiple partners in the room to co-create,
17:58 you know,
17:58 how we take these steps forward,
18:00 how we make sure that all of these different
18:02 partners that are so important are enabled to play
18:06 a a a a a productive role,
18:08 a leading role in reshaping,
18:10 you know,
18:10 the South Africa of tomorrow.
18:16 Thank you,
18:16 thank you.
18:17 I'll now pass it on to John,
18:19 regional director for sustainable development in South
18:22 South Asia region,
18:23 and John,
18:24 um,
18:25 you have had several CCTRs also being issued in,
18:28 in your region.
18:29 How do you see the differences and the similarities in
18:32 some of the actions and recommendations that have been emerging
18:36 out of the South Asia region
18:37 compared to what we've just heard today for South Africa?
18:42 Good morning everyone and thank you.
18:43 Um,
18:44 in South Asia,
18:45 we've completed the CCDRs for
18:47 Nepal,
18:48 Bangladesh,
18:48 and Pakistan,
18:50 and we've done the background work for the concept review for the India one.
18:54 So a few similarities and difference.
18:56 First of all,
18:57 climate change is here now.
19:00 The impact is huge
19:02 on people.
19:04 It's localized and impacts the poor more than others.
19:09 It's also clear that it's not only the longer term impact,
19:13 but the impact of short shocks is huge.
19:16 We're seeing it in sync now.
19:18 You saw it in KwaZulu-Natal.
19:20 This has a huge impact in terms of managing this particularly at a localized level.
19:25 It's also clear that the impacts get exponentially worse as carbon emissions,
19:30 uh,
19:31 increase.
19:31 So I hope our friends in the green zone make progress on that,
19:34 uh,
19:34 this week.
19:36 This also raises a broader definition of just transition.
19:39 Often we talk about just transition
19:42 in terms of coal miners and coal workers.
19:45 There's a just transition for poor people in rural areas that's just as important on
19:50 the adaptation side and elevating that into
19:53 the wider part is an important discussion.
19:56 Which brings me to decarbonization.
19:58 Across all of the countries we've looked at,
20:01 there's a large amount of decarbonization that is in the country's interests.
20:05 Renewable prices are falling,
20:07 better fuel security,
20:08 and in South Asia,
20:10 huge positive impacts on air pollution.
20:14 If one looks forward,
20:15 there is still an issue of how you phase down
20:18 your coal.
20:20 And there it's interesting to compare South Africa and India
20:23 and as difficult as it is in South Africa,
20:26 I think you're well positioned compared to India.
20:29 First of all,
20:30 your coal fleet is much older
20:32 and you're not gonna have stranded assets.
20:35 Secondly,
20:36 you have a much better established social dialogue already established
20:41 between the union,
20:42 civil society,
20:43 business and government,
20:44 which is hugely helpful.
20:47 Which brings me to my next point.
20:48 What strikes me is that across South Africa as you've done this work,
20:52 there's much stronger societal buy-in,
20:54 for example,
20:55 on the importance of getting to net zero
20:58 and the discussion and the framework and a tradition to bring civil society,
21:02 government,
21:03 and business together to deal with it.
21:04 And given all the parties that are gonna come together,
21:07 I think South Africa is very well positioned on this.
21:11 There's broad alignment across all of these CCDRs
21:14 that climate change and development go together.
21:17 There's a special set of opportunities for countries like India and South Africa
21:23 to innovate in green hydrogen batteries and these sorts of technologies.
21:27 Countries like Nepal are just gonna be receivers.
21:30 South Africa,
21:31 India can innovate,
21:32 but it's a crowded space.
21:34 It's not gonna be easy.
21:36 Which then brings me to the challenges.
21:38 These investment numbers are huge.
21:40 You probably saw Pakistan was even higher on that list.
21:44 Poorer countries,
21:45 more exposed countries,
21:46 higher needs.
21:47 Now you can debate the numbers backwards and forwards,
21:50 but they are huge,
21:53 which means the prioritization is going to be needed,
21:56 particularly
21:57 when you look at financing.
21:59 In every country,
22:00 the amount of available finance
22:02 is way below
22:04 the amount of investments that will be needed,
22:06 and the recommendations
22:07 are clear,
22:08 OK?
22:09 Increase private sector financing through policy.
22:13 Do as much as you can to get international financing,
22:17 concessional international financing,
22:18 it's justified,
22:20 it's needed.
22:21 But at the country level,
22:23 a certain amount of realism is also gonna be needed in
22:26 terms of what might happen in the next few years.
22:28 And finally,
22:29 huge opportunity to increase domestic revenue
22:31 and repurpose subsidies and investments.
22:35 But when you pull this all together,
22:36 particularly in the short term with countries like South Africa,
22:40 Pakistan facing macro prices,
22:42 there are gonna be tough tradeoffs that are gonna be needed,
22:45 which again comes back to why the civil society piece is important.
22:49 Final challenge comes then to implementation.
22:52 Strong focus needed over the next 5 to 10 years.
22:55 We can talk about 20-30 years from now
22:58 we can model it,
22:59 but there are a lot of things that need to be done now in order to
23:03 implement it and all the countries are looking
23:05 not only at bigger institutional incentive questions,
23:09 but also nuts and bolts capacity to do the
23:12 implementation of the kinds of projects that are needed.
23:15 Thanks.
23:16 Thanks.
23:19 Can you hear me?
23:19 Yes,
23:20 so,
23:20 um,
23:21 Ritu Metse,
23:21 maybe a last point from your side on
23:24 how you see the role of the banking sector and in,
23:27 in that context of finance and the,
23:29 the,
23:29 the constraints on scarce resources in South Africa.
23:33 Maybe some finer reflections from your side on
23:36 how can the banking sector be more incentivized to play its role.
23:41 So thanks,
23:42 thank you very much for the,
23:43 for the que.
23:43 I mean,
23:44 as part of the work we did,
23:45 we did focus on the financial sector,
23:47 um,
23:48 and as John says you can debate the numbers,
23:50 but I think what is important is the degree to which
23:53 that part of our our business community was organized to systematically tackle
23:59 and talk about these key issues and I think build them into,
24:03 you know,
24:03 how those banks are positioned uh going forward.
24:07 So And,
24:08 and I think this also speaks to broadly what's happening in the country.
24:11 So this was just one
24:12 very specific conversation around transitioning our economy.
24:16 But in addition to that,
24:17 for example,
24:17 we've been involved in the development of a green finance taxonomy,
24:22 um,
24:22 and,
24:22 and kind of the,
24:23 the structures that were developed between National Treasury,
24:27 but key parts of the financial sector from commercial financing,
24:30 asset owners,
24:31 a whole range of pension.
24:32 Funds as well,
24:33 um,
24:33 in,
24:34 in,
24:34 in really coming together to position to explicitly
24:38 and deliberately position the financial sector in building,
24:42 you know,
24:43 this capacity we need to have to unlock uh finance.
24:46 I think what is key from the work that we've done,
24:48 we've acknowledged that up to 60%
24:50 of the finance that we need within this decade,
24:53 um,
24:54 up to 2030 in building,
24:56 I think those initial steps.
24:57 that John was also referring to
24:59 can come from commercial finance,
25:01 um,
25:01 and that's a very big message and I think one that was
25:04 importantly developed and built with the commercial financing sector in the room
25:09 and identifying that.
25:10 So I think that,
25:10 that,
25:11 you know,
25:11 really does position as well from,
25:13 from unleashing,
25:14 from taking advantage of these opportunities um and playing a
25:18 very active role in in taking the transition forward.
25:22 All right,
25:22 thank you very much,
25:23 Axel.
25:24 I'm gonna hand it back to you
25:26 to close us with some final reflections.
25:28 South Africa is one where we've also put our
25:31 own financing behind this important plan going forward.
25:34 How do you see it going forward from your side?
25:37 Well,
25:37 thank you about that.
25:38 I,
25:38 I think this was an um.
25:40 A good week in the relationship between
25:44 uh the World Bank and South Africa.
25:47 It was the launch of the CCDR but also
25:50 um our board discussed
25:53 uh the Kuma
25:55 uh decommissioning project.
25:57 I think that is important to keep in
26:00 mind that this was the very first decommissioning
26:04 project of the World Bank
26:07 undertaken.
26:09 But we have to keep in mind.
26:12 Um,
26:13 that the challenge is much bigger,
26:15 not only for South Africa,
26:16 but for the world.
26:18 Uh,
26:19 we had,
26:19 uh,
26:20 today already also another discussion about the CCDR,
26:23 uh,
26:24 of,
26:24 um,
26:25 China.
26:26 In China,
26:27 there are more than,
26:28 um,
26:29 uh,
26:30 how much 100,050,
26:32 uh,
26:33 coal-fired plants.
26:35 And so the challenge is
26:37 that this project,
26:39 the Komati project,
26:41 cannot be only a prototype
26:44 that we
26:46 visit
26:47 and feel good about that,
26:50 but this will need to be replicated,
26:52 not twice,
26:53 not 5 times,
26:54 it's hundreds of times.
26:56 And that is then the challenge
26:58 is a challenge,
27:00 namely
27:01 how we do this,
27:04 and that has to be
27:06 that alternatives have to be offered because in South Africa
27:10 with the power interruptions
27:13 at fairly high levels this year,
27:16 it will need
27:17 to have alternatives.
27:19 And that means a very rapid
27:24 expansion
27:25 of the renewable energy sector,
27:28 but also
27:29 the cost
27:30 that have been
27:32 named
27:33 in doing so
27:35 is going in the tens of billions of dollars,
27:39 and that is a challenge for any country,
27:41 but also for South Africa that alone,
27:43 the public sector cannot do it,
27:45 so the private sector will have to come in.
27:48 I think there are good opportunities to uh to do so,
27:53 but
27:54 time is not on our side,
27:56 and that means that actually this will need to go much faster.
28:01 And I think that what John mentioned
28:05 is
28:06 one can look at
28:08 the just energy transition
28:11 to the people who are affected by this directly,
28:15 and we can deal with them,
28:17 but
28:18 excuse me,
28:19 we will need to look also much more
28:22 to all those who are left behind and particularly the poor.
28:27 And and and and that is whether we are in South
28:30 Africa or in South Asia or the rest of Africa,
28:33 this is a massive challenge.
28:36 And so
28:37 I think what the CCDRs we hope to intend
28:41 is not that it is a nice
28:44 document.
28:45 I hope it is a living document
28:48 that triggers discussion,
28:50 and yes,
28:50 I hope that it will trigger controversy
28:54 because I think that the questions are difficult
28:57 and
28:59 I think everybody is struggling,
29:01 so there are good ideas and they need to be debated.
29:05 And after that they be debated,
29:08 we don't want that.
29:09 this is.
29:12 It,
29:13 it we want that it is then translated in actionable programs
29:17 and I think that is where we then need to look at
29:21 uh the projects
29:23 we will need to also to look at the financing.
29:26 What is very clear is
29:28 the financing is not there neither in South Africa
29:33 nor
29:34 in other parts of the world,
29:36 and that is the dramatic
29:38 part that we are facing.
29:40 It is that we need to scale up much more aggressively.
29:45 I think that the World Bank
29:46 is willing,
29:47 uh,
29:47 to do so.
29:48 We have been scaling up,
29:50 but it is
29:51 just.
29:53 A small part of it,
29:54 it needs to be much,
29:55 much bigger.
29:56 And so what we hope that also this COP 27 will
30:01 convey is not only an urgency
30:04 in talking
30:05 but an urgency in acting and putting the money down.
30:09 What we would
30:10 like to challenge the world much more is that
30:13 people show how much money they want to put on the table,
30:17 including on South Africa,
30:18 not by.
30:19 Announceables,
30:20 but that you can see
30:21 at the end of the next
30:24 year when we have COP 28 that you can report that indeed South Africa
30:30 has received
30:31 the billions of dollars that were promised
30:34 and not
30:35 only
30:36 in announceables and that is what will count to make a difference
30:41 so we hope that the CCDR
30:43 will be
30:45 pushing.
30:46 The envelope not only in South Africa but elsewhere.
30:51 So that is actually my take.
30:54 Thank you very much,
30:55 Acellent thank you to our distinguished panelists,
30:57 and,
30:58 uh,
30:58 we really invite everybody to
31:00 keep uh their eye on South Africa and the road to the next
31:03 COP in implementing many of these uh action steps that we have identified.
31:08 Thank you.
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