00:00 Mingla Basan everyone.
00:02 I'm very pleased to present today some results
00:05 on how Myanmar has managed to reduce poverty
00:08 since 2005 and how the COVID pandemic is putting pressures on this game.
00:13 This work that I will present is the
00:15 result of a great collaboration between the World Bank
00:19 and the Central Statistical Organization of Myanmar
00:22 to collect frequent data on household welfare and firm activities
00:26 since the beginning of the pandemic.
00:31 Over the last decade,
00:33 Myanmar has achieved average annual growth of more than 6%,
00:37 which was translated into poverty reduction.
00:40 While in 2005,
00:41 there were about 48.3% of the population
00:45 with their consumption below a poverty line equal to 1590 chats per day.
00:52 In 2017,
00:53 this rate went down to 24.8%.
00:57 Other vulnerability,
00:58 meaning the share of the population
01:01 being at risk of falling into poverty,
01:03 remained quite high.
01:05 Myanmar has also made big progresses in terms of
01:09 uh monitor non-monetary poverty,
01:12 with increases in the use of improved water,
01:15 sanitation,
01:17 access to public grid,
01:18 and to public health facilities,
01:20 and also in the reduction of under-five mortality rate,
01:24 following a similar trend as in ASEAN countries,
01:28 although remaining a bit at a higher level.
01:32 Over time,
01:34 educational outcomes have also improved.
01:37 Enrollment in middle school increased
01:39 from 52% in 2010 to 71% in 2017.
01:44 We also know that younger generation of adults are generally better,
01:49 better educated than older ones.
01:52 Unfortunately,
01:53 we also know that many boys are still dropping
01:56 out of school when transitioning from primary to middle school
02:00 because of limited financial resources and high educational costs.
02:06 With respect to sectoral participation,
02:09 while agriculture remains the main sector of employment,
02:13 there has been a slow but gradual shift towards industry
02:17 between 2005 and 2017.
02:20 At the same time,
02:22 female labor force participation has increased in Myanmar.
02:26 More urban women are working,
02:28 working longer out working longer and in different sectors,
02:33 with this increase in female labor force participation
02:36 being linked to the expansion of the wholesale and retail sector.
02:43 Then
02:43 identifying the characteristics of poor households,
02:47 we knew that programs working on rural and remote
02:50 areas where residents are more likely to be poor
02:54 or working with larger households or households with less educated.
02:59 Um,
03:00 heads or heads with disabilities
03:02 would help sustain and increase these gains in poverty reduction.
03:09 Myanmar was then set
03:11 for rapid success in reducing poverty when COVID-19 hit.
03:18 Myanmar responded early and strongly to the pandemic.
03:21 It closed its borders with neighboring countries and closed
03:25 factories as early as in February of this year,
03:28 and imposed strict stay at home orders in March and April.
03:32 However,
03:33 as presented by our colleague in the June Myanmar Economic Monitor,
03:37 this came at a cost.
03:39 Myanmar gross domestic product is expected to fall to 0.5% this fiscal year,
03:46 while the IMF also estimates that global growth is projected to be at -4.9% in 2020.
03:54 These factors are a great toll on firms' activities.
03:58 And we found that
04:00 between 81 and 75% of firms reported
04:04 an overall negative impact on their activities,
04:08 because of COVID-19.
04:10 Between June and May and August of this year,
04:13 with 6% of firms being temporarily closed in August.
04:17 In addition,
04:18 we found that household businesses were also suffering,
04:22 with 75% of household businesses,
04:25 although still operating,
04:27 having lower earning over that period.
04:32 In this context,
04:33 the data allow us to estimate that about 54% of household main workers
04:39 who were working before March
04:41 had lost their employment in May
04:43 and about 15% were still out of employment in August.
04:48 Households,
04:49 main workers who were still working
04:52 at less income
04:54 and we found that it was about 54% of them in May
04:58 in this situation
05:00 and 35% in August.
05:02 In addition,
05:03 households receiving remittances were less likely
05:07 to receive this type of income support
05:09 as the crisis expanded globally,
05:12 keeping Myanmar migrant workers out of work in their host countries
05:17 or leading them back to Myanmar.
05:20 Quite worryingly,
05:22 we also learned
05:23 that the crisis had a large negative impact on rural livelihoods.
05:29 Households,
05:30 farming households were not able to work on their farm
05:33 as a result of mobility restrictions
05:36 and also lack of liquidity to purchase inputs or
05:40 hire workers for the harvest and planting season.
05:43 In addition,
05:44 we found that about 30% of farmers
05:47 have lost marketing channels as a result from the crisis,
05:51 which could potentially further reduce their incomes from sales.
05:56 To smooth their consumption,
05:58 households then turned to coping strategies
06:01 such as
06:02 cutting down expenditures on food and non-food,
06:05 but also taking new loans from friends,
06:07 money lenders or banks,
06:09 which could potentially worsen their welfare in the medium to long term.
06:14 For instance,
06:14 getting new loans or borrowing
06:17 could push the poorest with less liquidity into a debt trap.
06:22 Cutting down food consumption is also a concern when looking at food security.
06:27 We found that in May and June,
06:29 between 16 to 18% of households have reported issues related to food security,
06:35 such as having an adult member who went hungry for a whole day
06:39 or cutting down on food quality or cutting down on food diversity.
06:43 Households are also very worried about that they might
06:46 not have enough food for the wreck next week,
06:50 which raises their stress level and can potentially erode their mental health.
06:56 At the same time,
06:58 although we are still gathering evidence on schooling,
07:01 the fact is that reduced household incomes might push more households
07:06 to keep their children out of schools when schools reopen.
07:10 In addition,
07:11 children who did not benefit from private tuition
07:15 or support during school closure
07:17 may also struggle
07:19 to keep up with lessons or may be incentivized
07:22 from staying in school once the school reopened.
07:26 With respect to health,
07:28 foregone care,
07:29 which is a reality in Myanmar might also increase as travel restrictions and
07:34 absenteeism of health workers during infection
07:37 further hindered access to health services.
07:42 So far,
07:43 the government response to support household welfare
07:46 has been directed to three programs,
07:49 electricity,
07:50 food assistance,
07:50 and cash assistance.
07:52 We found with the data
07:54 that the main program that received
07:57 government support was the free electricity program.
08:01 But that program benefited
08:03 largely richer households who have greater access and use of electricity.
08:09 In comparison,
08:11 we found that about 16 to 18% of households,
08:14 or fewer households have benefited from food or cash assistance programs.
08:19 And also that these programs are not always reaching the poorest.
08:25 Then,
08:26 while a new wave of strict containment measures will likely hit
08:30 businesses and jobs in similar ways that in the past,
08:34 the context is now more fragile.
08:36 As it will be discussed shortly in the panel,
08:39 looking ahead,
08:40 intervention supporting
08:42 informal,
08:43 formal firms,
08:44 agricultural households,
08:46 household businesses
08:48 need to be combined with a greater focus on protecting the most vulnerable.
08:53 With inequality potentially rising as poor as using coping
08:57 mechanism that could push them further into poverty,
09:00 the government could mobilize its fiscal resources,
09:03 although limited in areas of great needs
09:06 through well targeted and generous social assistance program.
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