00:00 Welcome to our Africa Sustainable Development Series video blog where
00:05 we discuss issues of sustainability in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.
00:09 And today,
00:09 we are very pleased to have with us Keith Cressman,
00:12 senior Locus forecasting Officer with the FAO.
00:16 Who is one of the global experts trying to understand what may be happening
00:21 with what we believe is one of the most critical crises that East African countries
00:27 are facing and will continue to face
00:29 because hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland
00:32 and waste land across the region are at risk of being destroyed.
00:36 Kenya is experiencing the worst outbreak in 70 years,
00:39 and FAO predicts that 1 million Ethiopians may require emergency food.
00:44 After swarms of desert locusts
00:47 damaged more than 200,000 hectares of cropland.
00:50 So,
00:50 so today we want to discuss about uh how,
00:53 what are the perspectives of FAO,
00:54 how are you seeing forward this tremendous challenge.
00:58 Now,
00:58 uh,
00:59 the,
00:59 the locust is nothing new,
01:01 Keith.
01:01 So what is so special about this year?
01:05 When did you begin to
01:06 in FAO to begin to suspect
01:09 that this was going to be an unusual situation?
01:12 Well,
01:13 actually,
01:13 I started getting the first signs of perhaps
01:16 an unusual situation developing 2 years ago,
01:19 2 years ago exactly this month,
01:22 and that's when there was a cyclone that came
01:24 in off of the Indian Ocean and brought very,
01:27 very heavy rains to the Arabian Peninsula
01:30 to what is called the empty quarter.
01:32 So
01:34 I was very concerned,
01:35 of course,
01:35 knowing that there's no chance of getting any confirmation of locust populations
01:39 or any type of control operations could be carried out there,
01:42 but
01:43 Um,
01:43 it was just kind of a feeling,
01:45 an instinct that I had that,
01:46 you know,
01:46 we better watch the situation carefully.
01:49 Um,
01:50 and that proved to be true,
01:51 in fact,
01:52 because 6 months later in October of the same year,
01:56 another cyclone came into that same area and brought really heavy rains.
02:00 And so I said,
02:00 uh oh,
02:02 we're in for perhaps a very dangerous time ahead.
02:06 Much depends,
02:06 of.
02:07 course of the,
02:07 of the subsequent weather and,
02:09 and,
02:09 um,
02:09 knowing that it's,
02:10 you know,
02:10 it's in the Arabian Peninsula,
02:12 so it's in Saudi Arabia,
02:13 so,
02:13 you know,
02:14 they,
02:14 they're very well prepared.
02:15 It's a frontline country for desert locusts.
02:17 They have it every year,
02:18 um,
02:19 but still,
02:19 it's worth watching,
02:20 you know,
02:21 to see what could develop,
02:22 um,
02:23 because,
02:23 you know,
02:23 in the past,
02:24 um,
02:24 locust plagues have um developed from cyclones.
02:28 So cyclones are really important.
02:31 Mhm.
02:31 So tell us,
02:32 how do you actually,
02:33 uh,
02:34 monitor and do the forecasting of locus in FAO?
02:37 What kind of data do you compile?
02:39 How do you ground through things?
02:40 Do you do remote sensing?
02:42 How does it actually work for somebody who doesn't know much about
02:45 this technology?
02:47 Yes,
02:47 we do a bit of everything,
02:48 in fact.
02:48 So the main data that we that I rely on for
02:52 understanding the current situation and predicting its
02:55 developments comes from the affected countries themselves.
02:59 So there's about 2 dozen frontline countries.
03:01 These are countries that have some type of
03:03 desert locusts somewhere in their country every day.
03:07 Most every year,
03:08 let's say
03:09 they stretch from West Africa to India.
03:12 So it's all of the desert countries.
03:14 They have national programs in which there's a national locust center.
03:19 It's well equipped.
03:21 They have teams that are well trained.
03:22 They have 4 wheel drive vehicles,
03:24 and these teams,
03:25 their job is to go out into the desert.
03:28 And look for green vegetation,
03:30 you know,
03:30 ideally where it's rained,
03:32 how they know that they use remote sensing imagery.
03:36 I advise them.
03:37 They get information from the nomads and local people,
03:40 and they basically check those green areas for locusts.
03:44 If they find any locusts,
03:46 and if they're in large enough numbers,
03:47 they will immediately do control operations,
03:50 but normally they're just in low numbers.
03:52 And
03:53 with this information that they collect,
03:55 they use a tap.
03:56 Tablet,
03:57 a robust tablet in the field that's connected to a satellite antenna.
04:02 So all of their observations about the soil moisture,
04:05 the green vegetation,
04:06 the locusts is transmitted in real time back to their national locust Center,
04:11 usually in the capital city,
04:13 and it's also transferred to me in Rome.
04:16 So,
04:16 so basically we,
04:17 we have real-time information from these frontline countries
04:21 every day of the year.
04:22 And,
04:23 and this is a very Very,
04:24 very robust monitoring system.
04:26 It dates back,
04:27 of course,
04:27 to the 1930s,
04:29 obviously first being,
04:30 you know,
04:30 used on kind of pencil and paper and going out in the desert on camels,
04:34 but now it's a bit more sophisticated.
04:37 So,
04:37 so this is the basic data I use for forecasting.
04:40 Then I supplement it by satellite imagery to
04:44 help me understand where it's rained in the desert
04:47 and then what,
04:48 how has the green vegetation responded to after the rain.
04:52 I also use satellite imagery
04:54 to help know where those areas
04:57 are favorable for desert locust breeding.
04:59 So in other words,
05:00 sandy areas where there's been rainfall.
05:02 So,
05:03 so all of this feeds into our early warning system.
05:06 I have a database that goes back to the 1930s of,
05:10 of information.
05:11 It's,
05:11 it's the world's largest.
05:13 Database for any migratory pest,
05:15 um,
05:16 because of course this system is,
05:17 is very,
05:19 very old,
05:20 um,
05:20 so this works very well in frontline countries.
05:23 The problem is,
05:24 of course,
05:25 is when locusts get out of those frontline countries
05:27 and into countries that don't see locusts very often,
05:31 um,
05:31 such as Kenya,
05:32 you know,
05:32 it's seen locusts.
05:34 Twice in the last 70 years they have no national locust program.
05:38 They don't have teams.
05:39 They don't have equipment.
05:40 They don't have a national center.
05:42 There's no experience.
05:43 There's no training.
05:44 So of course,
05:45 you know,
05:45 to respond to a locust invasion
05:48 is much more problematic and much more challenging for a country like that.
05:52 So Keith,
05:53 what are your models telling you now for the rest of 2020 or maybe 2021?
05:58 What
05:59 are the predictions at the moment?
06:02 Usually I forecast 6 weeks up to in advance,
06:06 6 weeks in advance.
06:07 So that's,
06:07 you know,
06:08 with,
06:08 with the precision that is good for early warning.
06:11 I can of course forecast much,
06:13 much longer,
06:13 but
06:14 too much of it depends on weather forecasts,
06:16 and we are limited by.
06:17 Weather forecasts.
06:18 I,
06:19 I use,
06:19 for example,
06:20 seasonal predictions,
06:22 so I have an idea 6 months in advance about what's
06:25 going to happen with the temperature and with the rains,
06:27 if it's going to be below or above average,
06:29 for example.
06:30 So,
06:30 so these can help me to predict
06:33 further.
06:33 Of course I do use models.
06:35 I use models to predict the development rates of the eggs
06:38 in the hoppers that's a nymphal stage of the locust.
06:41 I use.
06:41 Models to predict
06:43 the migration routes of locust swarms,
06:46 but you know,
06:46 all of this science,
06:47 all of this data,
06:49 still there's huge gaps in our system because,
06:51 you know,
06:52 these are enormous areas that are being monitored.
06:55 20% of the land's Earth's surface,
06:57 most of it remote desert,
06:59 often insecure,
07:01 inaccessible,
07:02 so there are gaps in our knowledge in our in our data.
07:06 Fortunately,
07:07 I mean,
07:08 I've been doing this for more than 3 decades.
07:10 So,
07:10 so I have a lot of experience.
07:11 And so
07:12 I would say half of the early warning in the forecast is intuition.
07:17 Yes,
07:17 it's a feeling,
07:18 it's a feeling.
07:19 I know the countries,
07:20 I know the people.
07:21 I,
07:21 I've been to all of these areas.
07:23 Um,
07:23 I,
07:23 I,
07:23 I can better understand the data and the gaps
07:27 and the strengths and the weaknesses of that.
07:29 Now,
07:30 um,
07:30 yeah,
07:30 what's going to happen,
07:31 of course,
07:32 in in in the in the near future,
07:34 um,
07:35 for sure,
07:36 um,
07:36 the situation at the moment will remain extremely dangerous in the Horn of Africa,
07:41 starting at the beginning of the summer,
07:43 it's going to shift,
07:45 and it will shift into Sudan,
07:47 into the eastern part of the Sahel.
07:49 It could move across to West Africa.
07:52 It will shift to the India and Pakistan border area,
07:56 which is another.
07:56 Desert for the monsoon rains
07:59 and it will shift of course to Yemen,
08:02 and Yemen has had very good rains and it's,
08:04 you know,
08:04 of course with the conflict there,
08:06 it's very difficult to do the survey and control operations
08:09 that are required.
08:11 After that,
08:12 so beyond the summer,
08:13 really depends very much on what happens this
08:16 summer during the during the breeding period,
08:19 how good are the rains,
08:20 how successful is the locust breeding,
08:22 and then of course how effective.
08:24 are the survey and control operations
08:27 in the worst case scenario,
08:29 so saying that those operations aren't very effective and the rains are very,
08:32 very favorable for the locusts,
08:34 you know,
08:35 we could be facing a plague situation
08:38 by the end of this year.
08:39 We're not in a plague now.
08:40 We're one step below that,
08:42 what we call an upsurge.
08:44 The last time we saw an upsurge was 15 years ago,
08:47 and it took more than half a million dollars to bring it under control.
08:52 No,
08:53 so look,
08:53 I think that uh your models are just such an important part of,
08:58 of building the readiness for these countries
09:00 of what may be happening during the summer and by the end of the year.
09:03 Uh,
09:03 FAO and the World Bank are now working on a partnership,
09:07 sharing a lot of information,
09:08 and the World Bank,
09:09 we are in the process of
09:11 providing resources to help countries
09:15 with the prior damage of what happened.
09:17 Locusts,
09:18 but also to get ready
09:19 for what may be one of the most
09:21 difficult situations altogether and hopefully not a plague,
09:24 but even an upsurge has tremendous impacts that may be happening.
09:28 A plague could be causing 8 to $8.5 billion of damages in the Horn of Africa.
09:34 And if it goes to
09:36 West Africa or if it expands into
09:38 the India-Pakistan border,
09:40 you can imagine that there damages a lot more.
09:43 Um,
09:44 look,
09:44 what,
09:45 what do you think?
09:46 What do you recommend countries at this stage to do to get ready
09:51 for
09:52 the most likely or even the worst scenario moving forward?
09:55 Two or 3 practical things that they can do.
09:58 Well,
09:58 anticipatory action is absolutely critical.
10:01 So one of the things they can do,
10:02 of course,
10:03 is to prepare,
10:04 be prepared with their equipment and with their teams.
10:07 So if they don't have enough equipment now to place those orders,
10:10 you know,
10:10 while there's still time for deliveries,
10:12 if the teams are not properly trained,
10:15 train those teams,
10:15 even basic training,
10:17 you know,
10:17 what is a locust,
10:18 what's not a locust,
10:19 how to make a survey,
10:20 how to do control,
10:21 how.
10:21 How to report it.
10:23 Train,
10:23 train the teams on using the digital tools that we have developed to get that
10:28 information from the field fast to the decision makers and to FAO for early warning
10:34 and forecasting.
10:36 These are the most important issues.
10:38 One last
10:39 preparatory step that countries can take,
10:41 which often is forgotten,
10:43 is public awareness.
10:45 Get the public on your side,
10:47 educate them about the potential threat that could come to the countries.
10:51 Let them know what the government is capable of doing,
10:55 what preparedness steps that they have done,
10:57 identify what's a locust,
10:59 what's not a locust.
11:01 Reduce the misconceptions.
11:02 Locusts don't attack people.
11:04 They don't carry.
11:05 Coronavirus,
11:06 for example,
11:07 um,
11:07 and,
11:08 and you want to avoid panic in in these countries
11:11 because of course when the when the public starts to panic
11:14 then they put a lot of pressure on the government and
11:16 then the government feels that they have to act very quickly
11:20 without perhaps taking the necessary
11:22 time to make those important and sensible decisions.
11:26 OK,
11:26 thank you very much.
11:27 Very practical advice.
11:28 A pleasure talking to you.
11:29 Good luck with all the forecasting.
11:31 We need you,
11:32 uh,
11:32 all throughout the coming months for that.
11:34 Thank you.
11:35 Thank you very much.
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