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Uncertainty in Future Poverty and Inequality: Some Implications of Growth and Natural Resources

December 20, 2018

DECRG Kuala Lumpur Seminar Series

  • We study future outcomes of poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity measures as a function of country typologies using a panel dataset with 123 countries over the period 1970–2014. Despite poverty reduction, resource-output oriented countries are expected to hold high shares of extreme poverty in 2030. Countries with low rates of income per capita growth are expected to reduce poverty headcount but maintain high poverty rates up to 2030. In contrast, economies with high growth rates are expected to decrease extreme poverty levels below 2030 targets in a timely manner. Decreasing levels of the Gini coefficient are expected across studied country aggregations over the period 2015–2030 except in economies of high-income growth where inequality is predicted to increase. Besides, estimates of shared prosperity gaps indicate large variability of potential outcomes throughout the studied country aggregations.

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  • Fabian Mendez Ramos

    Fabian Mendez Ramos is an economist in the Development Research Group (DECRG) of the World Bank in the Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s office. Fabian’s interests are focused on forecasting economic processes and long-term growth analysis. His current research activities involve the study of mechanisms behind drivers of economic growth intersecting topics as natural resources, uncertainty, agribusiness, poverty, and trade. Fabian joined the World Bank in 2013 working at the Development Prospects Group (DECPG) where he contributed in two World Bank publications, the Global Monitoring Report (GMR) and the Global Economic Prospects (GEP). Prior to joining the World Bank, Fabian finished a PhD in applied economics at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas.


  • WHEN: Thursday, December 20, 2018; 12:30 -2:00PM
  • WHERE: World Bank Malaysia Office, Level 3, Sasana Kijang, No. 2, Jalan Dato’ Onn
  • RSVP: Kindly RSVP by Wednesday, December 19, 2018