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publication October 3, 2018

Tunisia's Economic Outlook - October 2018

Tunisia’s economic growth is slowly gaining steam. After recovering modestly to 2 percent in 2017, growth accelerated to 2.5 percent  in  Q1  of  2018  and 2.8  percent  in  Q2 (y-o-y), supported by agriculture, tourism,  and  export-oriented  manufacturing,  particularly  electrical  and  mechanical industries. On the demand side, growth was  driven by exports and investment. Unemployment remained high at 15.4 percent in  Q1  of  2018,  but  dipped  slightly  among  graduates,  recording  29.3  percent  compared to 29.9 percent in Q42017. 

Growth is projected to reach 2.4 percent in  2018,  before  gradually  approaching  its  potential  of  about  3.4  percent  over  the  medi-um  term  against  a  backdrop  of  improved business  climate  through  structural  reforms and greater security and social stability.  Growth  will  be  supported  by  expansions  in  agriculture,  manufacturing,  and  tourism-related  services.  Poverty  is  projected to stay unchanged at around 8.7  percent using the 3.2 U$ PPP per day line  and around 1.9 percent using the extreme  poverty line  (1.9 U$ PPP per day).