But this figure is grossly exaggerated. Under communism everyone
padded output to reach the targets of the planned economy, but no one cared
about the quality or even the usefulness of the items produced. For instance,
the Soviet Union manufactured more than six times as many tractors as the United
States, yet its agricultural output lagged far behind because production was so
wasteful. Much of Soviet manufacturing was unfit for consumption, so Russians
flocked to the imported goods that flooded the market following the
liberalization of foreign trade. Thus the subsequent decline in the production
of useless goods and unneeded inputs was not a tragedy but a desirable change.
At least one-fifth of Soviet output fell into one of these categories, and the
estimated GDP of the Soviet era should be reduced accordingly.
After communism the statistical measure of output shrank far
more than its actual level. The underground economy accounts for at least
one-quarter of this purported contraction. Thus the Russian economy has not
collapsed. Rather, until 1998 it stagnated because of sluggish, incomplete
reforms. Russia’s level of economic development remains where it was during
the Soviet era, roughly on par with Brazil’s.
Moreover, Russia has not developed a new "virtual
economy" based on barter rather than money. The share of barter
transactions in Russian industry peaked at 54 percent in August 1998, but the
financial crash curtailed this system of hidden subsidies that had been the norm
for Russian enterprises. Nonmonetary transactions fell like a stone once Russian
industry realized that it could no longer depend on the state and would have to
earn real money in the marketplace. Today the virtual economy is marginal.
According to the latest official data, Russia achieved GDP
growth of 5.4 percent in 1999 and 8.3 percent in 2000—and growth continues
today. While many systemic problems remain, Russia appears to have attained a
critical mass of market reforms and privatization. (Several other countries in
the region, such as Kazakhstan, have made similar achievements and are also
booming.) Considering the enormous distortions left behind by communism, that is
a splendid feat.
"Shock Therapy Was a Failure"—Russia’s economic
and social troubles are the result of radical economic reforms, such as
privatization and price liberalization, that were launched too fast and too
soon.
The economic mayhem that preceded the collapse of the Soviet
Union—the legacy of years of gradual, inadequate reforms—left former
President Boris Yeltsin with few choices but to move.
Russia toward a market economy. But this situation was not
unique to Russia, which is why more than 20 other former communist countries
also pursued market reforms. The most successful of these countries, with high
growth and contained corruption (notably Estonia and Poland), undertook far more
radical reforms. Nearly all of Russia’s current problems—widespread
corruption, excessive state intervention, high tax rates, lingering inflation,
limited rule of law—reflect insufficient reform efforts.
Russia has experienced rapid economic growth and considerable
structural improvements in the wake of the financial crash that shook the world
in August 1998. That crisis reduced the wealth and political power of two of
Russia’s most corrupt groups: oligarchic tycoons and regional governors. More
surprisingly, the crash convinced both the communists and the general public
that there was no alternative to a real market economy. Until fairly recently
Russia’s real problem was too little shock and too much corrupt state therapy
in the form of subsidies to the country’s elite.
"Privatization Has Generated Only Corruption"
Instead of saying that privatization has generated corruption,
it would be more accurate to say that it has generated national wealth. Since
1997 Russia’s private sector has accounted for 70 percent of GDP.
Corruption is usually defined as the misuse of public power for
private gain. But privatization permanently deprives public servants of public
property, so they can no longer charge money for the privilege of using it. The
bribery that plagues Russia today is not related to privatization. Rather, it is
overwhelmingly tied to law enforcement, tax collection, and state intervention.
In general, the higher is the level of privatization that a
former communist country has attained, the higher is the economic growth that it
has achieved. Russia is atypical in having been more successful with
privatization than with other market reforms, such as price liberalization. As a
result people tend to blame privatization for Russia’s shortcomings, while it
would be more logical to complain about the dearth of other reforms. Russian
enterprises are hounded by scores of state inspectorates that regularly extort
money from businesspeople.
Strangely, the standard comparison is between privatization in
Russia and in Poland, with the allegation that Poland privatized more slowly. In
fact, Poland started off with a bigger private sector than did Russia. But
Poland undertook more reforms in nearly all spheres—suggesting that, had
Russia not privatized so fast, it probably would have been in the doldrums.
Ukraine has implemented most reforms, including privatization,
more slowly than Russia. As a result Ukraine’s privatization has been worse
than Russia’s, with more ownership going to managers and employees and less
being sold on open markets. Ukraine’s corporate governance also remains far
worse than Russia’s, where nearly 800 enterprises actually paid dividends to
their shareholders in 2000.
"Russia Cannot Collect Taxes"
This allegation is based on sheer disinformation. Russia
collects one-third of its official GDP in general government revenues—slightly
more than the United States, whose citizens complain that taxes are too high.
Not only has Russian tax collection been high, it has also been very stable.
The misperception about Russian taxation is the result of
superficial observations. Most outsiders tend to focus on federal revenues. But
those represent only a part of total revenues, which also include regional and
local tax revenues as well as several extrabudgetary funds, notably the pension
fund. Another source of confusion is that many observers, including some
Russians, take for granted that Russia should have state revenues as high as
Western Europe or the former Soviet Union, ignoring that such taxation harmed
growth in both places. For Russia a more plausible tax rate, in line with its
level of economic development, would be 15-25 percent of GDP.
The real problem is not that Russia cannot collect taxes, but
that the government collects too much. These revenues are spent improperly and
aggravate corruption. According to the World Bank, at least 16 percent of Russia’s
GDP went to enterprise subsidies in 1998. (Small wonder that state finances
crashed.) Furthermore, tax collection is ruthless. The lawlessness of tax
inspectors has emerged as one of the most serious concerns of the post-Soviet
era.
The obvious solution to these problems was a low, flat tax rate.
Earlier this year Russia introduced a flat income tax of just 13 percent (a rate
that the United States and Western Europe could only dream about). Income tax
revenues instantly jumped 70 percent as people abandoned expensive schemes for
avoiding taxes.
"Russia’s Infrastructure Is Falling Apart"
Think again. Dramatic news stories, such as the tragic sinking
of the submarine Kursk and the fire that engulfed the Ostankino television tower
in Moscow, have created the impression that Russia is coming apart at the seams.
In fact, Russia has seen extraordinary improvements in its infrastructure.
Investment in fixed assets (buildings, equipment) increased 18 percent in 2000,
reaching a healthy 20 percent of GDP (higher than the standard U.S. ratio of 16
percent). Admittedly, the Soviet Union had investment of about 30 percent of
GDP, but that was an indication of waste. The Soviet Union was notorious in its
neglect of infrastructure and maintenance. Today privatization and market
pricing have revived much of Russia’s infrastructure. Market competition has
fostered incredible expansion in telecommunications. Airports and airlines have
similarly improved. Road construction is up. New ports have been built around
St. Petersburg. Whereas ruins once blighted the landscape of even Moscow,
modern-day Russia has initiated a widespread building boom.
Maintenance problems persist, however, where state monopolies
linger—notably in the natural gas monopoly Gazprom, the state-owned oil
pipeline monopoly, and some public utilities.
"Russia Suffers from a Terminal Health Crisis"
Granted, recent health statistics from Russia are shocking. Male
life expectancy plummeted from 64 to 57 years between 1989 and 1994, and the
country’s population is dropping by more than 500,000 people a year. The
population decline has two causes. The first is low birth rates, which are
common throughout Europe. The other cause is high death rates. The population
pyramid is badly skewed because there were so few births in 1930-45 due to
government terror and war, and the large age group born before 1930 is now
dying.
According to the most recent United Nations projections, Russia’s
population decline—28 percent through 2050—will not be drastically worse
than that in parts of Western Europe. The main causes of the drop in male life
expectancy are cardiovascular disease and accidents, partly fueled by
alcoholism. Nothing suggests that health care standards in Russia have fallen.
The quality of health care is closely linked to infant mortality, which plunged
17 percent between 1993 and 1998. Public and private spending on health has
risen sharply as a share of GDP. Capitalism has made medicines widely available
that were unknown during the Soviet era, and hospital equipment has greatly
improved.
Yet the proliferation of illicit drugs and AIDS, both of which
are inevitable consequences of becoming an open society, is cause for genuine
concern. Another worry is tuberculosis—a new drug-resistant strain of the
disease is particularly troubling. Moreover, because the health care system
remains predominantly public, it suffers from low salaries, low efficiency, and
widespread bribery.
"Russia Has Been a Black Hole for Western Aid"
A profound misperception prevails that the West has provided
enormous aid to Russia. In fact, such aid has been trivial. Between 1992 and
2000 the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) committed $2.6
billion to Russia. But actual disbursements have been much less: Russia received
only about $200 million a year in grants from the United States, while the
European Union gave barely $150 million a year. The United States has also given
food aid, partly in grants and partly in credits—but that has been at the
behest of the U.S. agricultural lobby and qualifies more as financial aid for
U.S. farmers. In fact, food aid has hampered agricultural reform in Russia. (The
United States has also financed denuclearization in the former Soviet Union, but
again that is driven predominately by U.S., not Russian, interests.)
Russia has drawn nearly $15 billion in stabilization credits
from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), all of which must be paid back with
interest, and the country has already returned nearly half that amount. The
World Bank has committed $12 billion, but that is also in the form of credits
that must be repaid with interest. Thus since the end of the Cold War the West
has provided Russia with public grants totaling about $5 billion—equivalent to
U.S. aid to Israel and Egypt in a single year—most of which has been spent on
Western consultants.
For its part, the United States has benefited enormously from
the peace dividend that came with the disappearance of the Soviet military
threat. In the 1980s the United States spent 6 percent of its GDP on defense,
compared with 3 percent—$300 billion a year—today.
Anders Åslund is senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace. This article is excerpted from a longer piece published in
the July/August 2001 issue of Foreign Policy.