Global Economic Prospects

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East Asia and Pacific

The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region continued its gradual adjustment to slower but more balanced growth. Regional growth slipped to 6.9 percent in 2014 as a result of policy tightening and political tensions that offset a rise in exports in line with the ongoing recovery in some high-income economies. The medium-term outlook is for a further easing of growth to 6.7 percent in 2015 and a stable outlook thereafter reflecting a gradual slowdown in China that starts to be offset by a pickup in the rest of the region in 2016-17. In China, structural reforms, a gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and continued prudential measures to slow credit expansion will result in slowing growth to 6.9 percent by 2017 from 7.4 percent in 2014. In the rest of the region, growth will strengthen to 5.5 percent by 2017 supported by firming exports, improved political stability, and strengthening investment. Adjustment to softer commodity prices will continue to weigh on growth of the commodity exporters of the region. A stalled global recovery, a sharp slowdown in China, financial market volatility, and eventual tightening of global financing conditions represent key risks to the regional outlook. 

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China’s Integration in Global Supply Chains