Prospect Group Policy Research Working Papers
Working papers by author | Policy Research Notes
2023
What Explains Global Inflation
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday
Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies
by Mathilde Lebrand, Garima Vasishtha, and Hakan Yilmazkuday
Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite
by Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Jeetendra Khadan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki
Measuring Total Carbon Pricing
by Paolo Agnolucci, Carolyn Fischer, Dirk Heine, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Joseph Pryor, Kathleen Patroni, and Stéphane Hallegatte
Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models : Estimates for 191 Countries
by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, and Sherman Robinson
International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax
by Michael Keen, Li Liu, and Hayley Pallan
Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why?
by Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Carlos A. Vegh
Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia?
by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic, and Victor Mylonas
The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth
by Agustín Bénétrix, Hayley Pallan, and Ugo Panizza
Commodity Price Cycles: Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers
by Alain Kabundi and Hamza Zahid
Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution
by Hamza Zahid
Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
by Francisco Arroyo Marioli, Antonio Fatás, and Garima Vasishtha
The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies
by Kersten Stamm and Dana Vorisek
Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options
by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Collette Wheeler
The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities
by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Sinem Kilic Celik, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Collette Wheeler
Potential Growth: A Global Database
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and F. Ulrich Ruch
Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge
Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable
by Franziska Ohnsorge and Lucia Quaglietti
Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices?
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday
2022
How Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends.
by Carlos Arteta, Steven Kamin, and Franz Ulrich Ruch
From Financial Development to Informality: A Causal Link
by Salvatore Capasso, Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Shu Yu
Global Job Quality: Evidence from Wage Employment across Developing Countries
by Shoghik Hovhannisyan, Veronica Montalva-Talledo, Tyler Remick, Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, and Kersten Stamm
Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy
by Justin Damien Guénette, Philip Kenworthy, and Collette Wheeler
Demand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls
by Franz Ulrich Ruch and Temel Taskin
2021
What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing?
by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose
Sectoral Value Added — Electricity Elasticities across Countries
by Shoghik Hovhannisyan and Kersten Stamm
Commodity Price Shocks: Order within Chaos
bu John Baffes and Alain Ntumba
Understanding FDI Spillovers in the Presence of GVCs
by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Wei Xiang, Fahad Khan
A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
The Aftermath of Debt Surges
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff
One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge
Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies
by Franz Ulrich Ruch
Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia During the COVID-19 Recession
by Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze
Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Justin-Damien Guenette and Takefumi Yamazaki
The Technology-Employment Trade-Off: Automation, Industry, and Income Effects
by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon
Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon
2020
Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity
by Alistair Dieppe, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Cedric Okou
Productivity Convergence: Is Anyone Catching Up?
by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Cedric Okou
Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets
by Alain Ntumba Kabundi and Franziska Ohnsorge
Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Collette Mari Wheeler, John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge
A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies
by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu
A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments
by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu
Tax Competition: Is It a Source of the Corporate Savings Glut?
by Atsushi Kawamoto and Kei Muraki
Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition
by Hideaki Matsuoka
Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19: A Global View
by William Maloney and Temel Taskin
Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes
by Justin-Damien Guenette
Policy Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade
by Franz Ulrich Ruch
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade
by Franz Ulrich Ruch
Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt
by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies
by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge
Global Recessions
by M. Ayhan Kose, Naotaka Sugawara, and Marco E. Terrones
Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession
by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge
Understanding the Cost of Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
by Dana Vorisek and Shu Yu
Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies
by Ichiro Fukunaga, Takuji Komatsuzaki, and Hideaki Matsuoka
The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand
by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, and Peter Nagle
Debt and Financial Crises
by Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
2019
New Approaches to the Identification of Low-Frequency Drivers: An Application to Technology Shocks
by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon
Growth in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Prospects, and Policies
by Rudi Steinbach
Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality
by Mohammad Amin, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Cedric Iltis Finafa Okou
Inflation in Low-Income Countries
Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Peter J. Montiel, and Peter Jouis Pedroni
Quality of Management of Firms in Turkey
by Ximena Del Carpio and Temel Taskin
Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies
by Sebastian Michael Essl, Sinem Kilic Celik, Patrick Alexander Kirby, and Andre Proite
Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence
by M. Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo G. Panizza, and Dana Lauren Vorisek
Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge
Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
by Jongrim Ha, Marc Stocker, and Hakan Yilmazkuday
Global Inflation Synchronization
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge
Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge
Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates
by Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando
2018
Potential Growth: Outlook and Options for the Russian Federation
by Yoki Okawa and Apurva Sanghi
Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response to Trade Disputes
by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, Csilla Lakatos, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder
Corporate Debt Overhang and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence
by Eduardo Borensztein and Lei Sandy Ye
The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand
by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge
The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications
by John Baffes, Marc Stocker, Y. Modeste Some, Dana Vorisek, and Collette M. Wheeler
2017
The Global Costs of Protectionism
by Csilla Lakatos and Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova
Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey
by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens
Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Inperfections: A Survey
by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens
A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space
by M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara
A Proximity-Based Approach to Labor Mobility in CGE Models with an Application to Sub-Saharan Africa
by Hans Lofgren and Martín Cicowiez
Arm's-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness
by Csilla Lakatos and Franziska Lieselotte
Global Inequality in a More Educated World
by Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance
by Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder
How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge
Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses
by Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Gerard Kambou, Derek Chen, Boaz Nandwa, Yoki Okawa, and Dana Vorisek
Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Lei Sandy Ye, Ergys Islamaj
The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers
by M. Ayhan Kose, Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker
2016
Demographic Change and Development Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Bryce Quillin, and Philip Schellekens
From Commodity Discovery to Production
by Tehmina Khan, Trang Nguyen, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Richard Schodde
Resource Misallocation in Turkey
by Ha Nguyen, Temel Taskin and Ayberk Yilmaz
Impact of Social Assistance on Labor Market Mobility: The Case of Turkey
by Deniz Alcan, Raif Can, Temel Taskin and William Wiseman
Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
by Carlos Arteta, M. Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin
On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty
by Marcio Cruz and S. Amer Ahmed
Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa
by S. Amer Ahmed and Marcio Cruz
Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts
by Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker, and Modeste Y. Some
Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context
by Franziska Ohnsorge and Shu Yu
Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?
by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus J. Lim, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge
Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies
by Raju Huidrom M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge
China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
by Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Delfin Go
Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration
by S. Amer Ahmed, Delfin S. Go, and Dirk Willenbockel
Organizing Knowledge to Compete Impacts of Capacity Building Programs on Firm Organization
by Marcio Cruz, Maurizio Bussolo, and Leonardo Iacovone
How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? International Evidence
by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose
Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa
by Edward J. Balistreri, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, David G. Tarr, and Hidemichi Yonezawa
What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?
by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis
Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran Global Effects and Strategic Responses: Global Effects and Strategic Responses
by Elena Ianchovichina, Shantayanan Devarajan, and Csilla Lakatos
2015
A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco
by Israel Osorio Rodarte and Hans Lofgren
Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
by John Baffes and Xiaoli L. Etienne
Sources of Volatility during Four Oil Price Crashes
by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar
What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market
by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar
Does Input Tariff Reduction Impact Firms’ Exports in the Presence of Import Tariff Exemption Regimes?
by Marcio Cruz and Maurizio Bussolo
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
by Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson
2014
How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?
by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte
Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
by Marcio Cruz
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages
by Maurizio Bussolo, Jamus Jerome Lim, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer
The Long-Awaited Rise of the Middle Class in Latin America Is Finally Happening
by Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Elie Murard
Beyond the Income Effect Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs on Private Investments in Human Capital
by Marcio Cruz and Zacharias Ziegelhöfer
Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks
by Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker
Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries
by Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker
2013
Creating and Using Fiscal Space for Accelerated Development in Liberia
by Hans Lofgren
Infrastructure for Growth and Human Development in Pakistan: A Simulation Analysis of Fiscal Policy Options
by Jouko Kinnunen and Hans Lofgren
Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices
by John Baffes
Closing Rural-Urban MDG Gaps in Low-Income Countries: A General Equilibrium Perspective
by Hans Lofgren
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution: Alternative Scenarios for Moldova
by Jouko Kinnunen, Hans Lofgren, Victor Sulla, and Dino Merotto
2012 and before
Liberia: Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development
by Sébastien Dessus, Jariya Hoffman, and Hans Lofgren
World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries
by Hans Lofgren
Achieving the MDGs in Yemen: An Assessment
by Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly, Mohamed Al-Hawri, Martin Cicowiez, Hans Lofgren, and Mohammad Pournik
Cotton, Biotechnology, and Economic Development (2011)
by John Baffes
How Important Is the Efficiency of Government Investment? The Case of the Republic of Congo (2011)
by Hannah Nielsen and Hans Lofgren
Cotton Subsidies, the WTO, and the "Cotton Problem" (2011)
by John Baffes
Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective (2010)
by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis
Markets for Cotton By-Products: Global Trends and Implications for African Cotton Producers (2010)
by John Baffes
More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link (2009)
by John Baffes
Aid, Service Delivery, and the Millennium Development Goals in an Economy-wide Framework (2008)
by François Bourguignon, Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, and Hans Lofgren
Oil Spills on Other Commodities (2007)
by John Baffes
Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters (2006)
by John Baffes
The Co-movement between Cotton and Polyester Prices (2005)
by John Baffes (World Bank) and Gaston Gohou (University of Maryland)
Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling (2005)
by John Baffes (World Bank) and Harry de Gorter (Cornell University)
Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues (2004)
by John Baffes
These research notes are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy.
- Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?
- Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies
- The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?
- The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses
Last Updated: Dec 21, 2023